It was about time I got a bit more active on the ‘tipping’ front so I have decided to start a new daily feature that will run Monday to Friday, and possibly Saturdays. In part inspired by Geegeez Stat of the Day I will see if I can match their heady heights – which will be a tall order. I tried a daily piece a few months ago with ‘pace wins the race’ but found that a bit draining as I was forcing myself to find bets so I have expanded my approach to covers a wider range of ‘ways in’.
The approach…
Well I don’t like ‘tipping’ – which I view as just giving a horse with no reasoning. That helps no one and I have always tried to provide information that either helps with your own analysis of the race that I have looked at, or helps you come to a better decision about whether to follow me in or not. So, this is more a daily advisory piece I suppose, but that title wasn’t as catchy!
The aim here will be to find one horse a day, (there may be two on some days) that is derived from: Trainer Stats (14 day, 30 day form, course form since 2009), Trainer/Jockey combo stats (14, 30 day and course form for last 5 years), Trainer form for first run in a handicap, or those that have changed yards. Essentially this is using the brilliant Geegeez Gold reports as a way in. PACE – I still have some success with identifying front runners that I want to back but not as often as I thought I may have done – but they will be considered. Horses for courses may be a way in too. Finally, for summer jumping, I will also use the reports that I am pulling together (and will finish this week)
All of the above will be a ‘way in’ and a starting point before using the rest of my usual tools (Geegeez+HorseRaceBase) to look at the horse, the opposition and all the usual stuff I consider important. We will be mainly betting in handicaps. While I generally don’t like playing in class 5 and 6 I will be guided by the stats first and given how much of this racing goes on it will be unavoidable at times during the flat season.
Staking – Each ‘tip’ will be advised to 1 point level stakes, usually win only but on occasions 1/2 point EW.
In a sense this is a trial and we shall see how I get on. I have never backed winners consistently at more than around 22-25% so there will be plenty of losers. However, the aim will be to try and get ‘value’ and I will rarely back anything under 5/2 and if I can help it, anything under 4/1. I will not force a bet per day and if I cant find anything it will be a no bet day. But, hopefully with this wide ranging approach those days wont be very often.
***
5.35 Ayr
Lady Ranger 5/1 – 1 point win
The Way In…
Irish raider A Keatley is now 4/10, 6 places with his handicappers at Ayr. Before yesterday he was 3/9, 5 places and had one runner here. He won at 17/2. When teaming up with this jockey he is now 3/4 at the track.
He runs three horses here today and you know it will be sods law that I pick the wrong one but, even though they are all operating at a low level, I found it hard to make a form/profile case for the others. Clearly, with the stats above, any of them winning is not going to be a total shock.
The Horse…
Lady Ranger has been running really well back home and you could excuse the last run as that was a much better race than this, and she could have simply been outclassed. Ground, trip, and class are all fine here. As a 4 yo she is still open to improvement. 7f looks her ideal distance and she has been running well in some large fields. This race looks a bit easier. Of course you never know how well these horses travel over but she will have been here a couple of days now and hopefully she runs her race.
The Opposition…
As you would expect this isn’t a race full of quality. Argaki is clearly a danger having won yesterday and if repeating that form will have a decent chance, as the market suggests. Ingleby Spring is interesting simply because of the jockey and trainer form in the last 30 days, however this horse needs to show much more for me. Teds Brother is 0/8, 0 places in handicaps at the track, and I would want to see more here before backing a horse with a course record like that – it suggests he doesn’t like the place. A case could be made for Pitt Rivers, and I suppose not winning very often isn’t much of a handicap in a race like this! It all seemed to come together on his last run and a repeat of that will see him in the mix. A Loveable Rogue ran well two starts ago after a break over 7f. He didn’t sppear to stay 8f last time and he is another that could run ok. Angel’s Above could be anything making his stable and handicapped debut and if well backed could be a danger to all. The rest just don’t look very good or out of form. In fact most of the others haven’t shown much at all in truth and I wouldn’t want them to carry my money.
Fingers crossed I get a run for my money and I haven’t picked the wrong horse of the three! Michael’s Missile (2.35) and Elusive Gent (4.05) are the other two.
*** Harwoods Volante was going to be the original pick in the 3.35. Makin and OMeara are 3/8, 5 places in handicaps in the past month and this horse looks to have a very good chance. He was 5/2 last night which was just about ok in the context of the race and opposition. However with a NR and R4 he is now under 2/1 and I wont ‘advise’ at that price, albeit I hope he hacks up.***
Good Luck
P.S I WONT BE emailing out each day as I don’t wish to annoy those on my list who have no interest. I will post by 10am every day (even on no betting days) and you will have to check the blog if you wish to read the posts etc.
P.s I should just say that Geegeez Stat of the Day is free on Monday’s for free registered users, which I know a lot of you are. Chris (the main ‘tipping’ man) had a stormer in June and from 25 1 point win bets made around 24 points profit. I have backed each one at £20 per point for quite some time (the only outside ‘tips’ I follow) and it is another month that has more than paid for my annual Geegeez Gold subscription. Indeed, they could justify the fees just for that service if truth be told. To date they have made 80-100 points a year without fail and long may it continue. Those pieces are more than just tips and are very educational, if you are into improving your own approach to betting.
19 Responses
Will you be sending out a reminder DAILY e-mail to read the Blog or do I need to put it in my Favourites box to read every day ?
No I wont be sending out a daily email, so best you put it in your favs box! Mainly that is because there will be plenty on my list who are not interested and I don’t want to annoy them!
thanks Josh I find your ramblings both informative and interesting but I do forget to check your messages but I will try to drop in (If I remember) !!
I’ve backed Teds Brother who is down to a 0-65 having raced mainly in C3/4 company and this ground suits better than the soft he’s often raced on at Ayr. Rob Hornby has been doing a good job for Guest.
Good luck, but not too much 🙂 Yep cant disagree with the class angle, and he is 1/2, 2 places when dropping into C6.. Yes you can make valid excuses for some of those Ayr runs, but there have been a few when well fancied and conditions have looked fine when he hasn’t run well. We shall see, maybe today is his day! ( mine is on the drift so my expectations are diminishing by the hour!)
Hi Josh
I latched on to Keatley y’day before his runner thankfully. Maybe an angle, i’m taking it thats its a small yard, specific small yards with favoured tracks…. backed all his runners today and they are all winning hope Lady Ranger makes it 4. Imagine what the acca would of paid.OMG!!!
Super Jim, angles like this can be a gold mine and I must admit to throwing some savers at the other two. Form almost irrelevant at this level, just trust the stats! Fist winner 0/5 and tried all types of trips, second one was 1/33 on turf, but had been running OK. Interesting that clearly low level races in Ireland would appear to be much higher than low level racing over here. But, glad stats holding up and I suspect I may have picked the one loser, which looked to have best chance on paper!
Hi Josh
I would not worry to much about a drift it often means shrewd layers pushing the price out and you will often see the price collapse as the late money pours in by the bucket load. If you fancy something back it don’t let the market determine your pick.
Spot on, I never let a decent price put me off backing and as you say there can be all sorts of reasons for a drift. Many pro value punters would lump on more when they drift!
Fingers crossed I get a run for my money and I haven’t picked the wrong horse of the three! Michael’s Missile (2.35) and Elusive Gent (4.05) are the other two.
You have got to see the funny side Josh!! Let’s hope he has a treble but I think the 5:35 is the hardest race to call of the day – Great spot though !!
Yes, I have been laughing all afternoon!!! Haha. But, I like my posts to be informative and at least the stats are holding firm. Can see why I don’t play c6 too much, too taken in by career stats for horse such as 1/33!
Hoping Mr Dods or our old friend Mrs Carr can get the job done in 5.05. 2 strong jock/trainer combo’s at Ayr
Cheers Jim. I owe you a pint! Good ride that. Did spot stat earlier but race looked a bit tricky, bunch finish.
No worries!! Just hoping Murray wins the 4th set now as i backed 3-1.He does love to give a set away
Small E/W Dark Crystal 5.35 again strong J/T Combo
It’s the Law of Sod, second after the other two won 🙁
Indeed, I hate that law! I may steer away from multiple entry stats in future! Cant let a fit horse (wasn’t sure if winner would be) get that easy a lead but no fault of jock, was aware of danger and was riding early, just couldn’t go any quicker, ran out of track. Onto tomorrow.
U were right the two u didnt back win and yours came 2nd thought i only had that sort of luck shoulda done a trixie!
Yes there was a sense of inevitability as I was writing that. Never mind, plenty of winners lie ahead with stats such as that hopefully.