Tip of the Day: 07/07/15

Well yesterday was good fun. I could feel the sense of inevitability as I was writing parts of yesterday’s post that the others would probably do well and so it proved. I went with the one that had the best chance on paper and he ran really well – unfortunately he just bumped into one, who was helped by getting a very easy lead on the front end that couldn’t be got back. The first of the other winners was unexposed and 0/5, 1 place, having been tried at 6f, 7f and 8f. Back to 6 he hacked up. The second winner had career turf stats of 1/33 – and while consistent didn’t look like he knew how to win. He got an easy lead too, and the rest was history. Still, that showed the strength of stats like that and how powerful they can be.

You know I always like to reflect and there are a couple of learning points in there for me. 1 – at that level of racing, C5/6 it could be argued that the stats should be enough and they make the form of the horse irrelevant – especially if money comes – which is did for the first two, in bucket loads. I may also try and stay away from ‘multiple entry’ stats as they will no doubt play with emotions and my judgement more in future. 2. Crappy Irish form is clearly a lot better than crappy English form! The analysts on RUK were having a brief chat as I was streaming the race about there being more depth in Ireland and the fact the lower level races over there are more competitive. Interesting. No wonder the Irish, on the flat and over jumps, like sending the odd raiding party at the lower levels.

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8.15 Uttoxter

Toe to Toe 8/1 (general)- 1 point win

The Way In…

At Uttoxter John Flint has respectable stats since 2009 of 21 bets / 5 wins / 8 places. Not bad at all. This is his only runner here today. I spent yesterday pulling together some Uttoxeter stats as I have done for other tracks and I was hoping he would have a handicap hurdler running today.

That is because his stats in handicap hurdles here are 5/17, 7 places +32 points SP. Even better is when he teams up with Flint Junior (I am assuming its his son, or a close relation anyhow) – together they are 4/7, 4 places with handicap hurdlers since 2009. Not bad at all.

It is safe to say we will make some decent profits following those stats above, even if today is not the day – but fingers crossed that it is.

The Horse…

This is a shocker of a race. Abysmal, awful, dire. But, something has to win it. Toe to Toe is one of very few horses to have won a race here which is something. He is having his fourth start for connections and drops down to the trip where he had his win. He ran in a chase last time and went well, before it looked to my eye that his stamina went over 20f. That run showed he was in good heart, and that P is not one to put me off. A quick return would suggest there wasn’t a problem, I think he just ran out of gas. He looks a 16f horse. He is only 1 of 2 horses to have won over the distance, and most of the others have had a few tries. He is still lightly raced and ran well at Stratford over hurdles on his penultimate run, again before his stamina ran out.

We should get a decent run for our money here, and if he completes I expect him to be in the top 3.

The Opposition..

Well much like yesterday form analysis at this lowly level is maybe a bit pointless. The majority of those in this race are 0 from x and clearly connections will find the key to some of them at some point. Grams and Ounces is the other distance winner and has won in the class. He is handicapped to run a decent race and I suspect he will.

The danger horse is Significant Move for the good Doctor. He is 0/8 in hurdles and this is his 4th run for this trainer. What is he doing different today? (a key question I have learnt to ask myself more regularly – why should he perform any different to previous runs) Well he has blinkers on for the first time here and they could make all the difference. Clearly he is expected to go well and he ran well here last time out. I wont be shocked if he wins.

If anything else wins outside of thise 3 – well I will put it down to the class as there is no way I could part with my money on anything else here, unless I was close to a yard who knew the horse etc. Those 3 may well fill out the places in some kind of order, we shall see.

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Ground…a quick word on the going…the selection appears to need a sound surface, which he has here. I am not sure if there is rain around but if there were to be soft anywhere in the official going I would be concerned. He hasn’t proved he cant handle it mind, but it would be an unknown.

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Other stats of interest…

1.55 Wolvs… Danzoe..has been well backed into 4/1 and I have missed any decent price, that feels about right. Trainer and Jockey are 4/6, 5 places when teaming up here. It is low grade again but the horse has a chance for a prominent racer drawn low. Lots is in his favour although he is only 1/13 with 12+ runners, as opposed to 6/28 with 1-11. Cumbrianna looks to be a danger. I expect a decent run from this one and Kirby is 1/2 on the horse. The 48 day break did also concern me, that seemed overly long for a flat horse, but he has been punted as if that isn’t an issue.

6.40 Uttoxeter…Adios Alonso..runs in a Novice Handicap Chase for Gasson and Poste who are 2/5, 4 places in the last month, this horse being one of those wins. I don’t like these races as there are lots of could be anything types over fences and they are not very good animals. However, he won last time out over sticks, and with a chase win to his name that puts him ahead of most of these. He is a prominent racer who should go well, if his jumping holds. A few too many niggles for me to recommend a bet although in saying that I may have a small nibble.

5.10 Pontefract..King of the Celts…Tim Easterby and Rachael Richardson continue in fine form over the past month (5/16, 8 places) and together at this track they are 4/9, 5 places. This horse comes here on a hat trick but appears to need good to firm. He is 0/13 on Good, which I think is the ‘official’ going. Clearly in great heart and appears to be improving still, which a few old timers have done from both Easterby yards recently. I expect another bold show but that ground was a niggle. All wins on Good to Firm and I don’t think it will be rattling quick.

Those 3 above made up my shortlist of 4 for the day and we shall see if my judgement is better than yesterday! (which may well turn out to be a continuous theme over time, but I will share those stats/shortlists as you may wish to go and look at those races yourself)

***

Good Luck with whatever you fancy today.

 

As ever, without Geegeez Gold this post would not be possible

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Think what you are doing is really good ..best free information out there and everything you send is always worth reading ..

  2. Thanks Josh for your email. Huge respect for your honesty and skill picking winners and the odd inevitable loser.
    Cheers again and the very best of luck. I owe you a few pints of @rthur Guinness or whatever you like 🙂

    1. Cheers Brian…ahh yes Guinness, that is certainly in my top 5 beers/ales/stouts 🙂 I am excited about this approach…it helps bring discipline to my own begging as much as anything and am confident over time we will do OK!

  3. Hi josh and some great work as usual ,I am a big fan of stats and trends so I also like geegeez to look at the pace in a race too.Front runners especially mark johnstons horses. One today in the ponty 5-10 dropped down in trip might today just decide to front run Mediate we will see x Please keep up the good work x

    1. Cheers Mally, yes I like trying to find front runners too that may hang on and there will be a few in these posts over time no doubt. Yes that race is interesting, no previous front runners so your assumption as to who may lead could well be right. Johnston likes them to be sent to the front out of trouble and as you say taking a drop down. Also handicap debut. pace map doesn’t suggest there will be a scorching pace so may pay to be handy, we shall see. If it was good to firm I may have had a nibble on the Easterby horse. decent enough odds on Johnstons, good luck. Will watch with interest.

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