Saturday 27/06/15

Well yesterday was good fun. 7/1 winner for OMeara and Makin at Chester who continue in blinding form and the easiest winner I have backed for some time at Cartmel at 15/2. There were of course a fair smattering of losers too but the majority of horses (bar Winter Alchemy) ran well. So, that was good fun and I will do a similar post soon.

2.35 Newcastle

Shore Step 12/1 1 point EW 4 places  

At the prices this is the one I want to be on, especially with 4 places to aim at and fingers crossed there are no non runners – but I suspect there will be one to reduce us to 3 places. There are a few reasons why I like this horse. He is a prominent runner/front runner and I suspect he may lead this field for some way. There will be no excuses. At the back end of last season he won a couple of decent, big field class 3 races and aged 5, with only 15 runs to his name, is still open to improvement. He ran really well on his return from action last time, and led for a long way. That was in a better race than this. The jockey is 2/6, 3 places on the horse in all races so that is a good sign. I was initially put off by the 55 day break until i realised he has come back after 60 days before so it would be wrong to assume there was a problem. I like his price, I like the fact he is battle hardened, will lead, is open to improvement and he does keep finding. We should get a good run for out money. 

This race feels open with quite a few ‘could be anything’ types – normally that means you should leave the race but 12s for the selection was too tempting. Bushcraft is improving but he will need to step up, and his C3 winning form isnt as good as Shore Steps I dont think. But, he is going the right way and will run his race. Tanzeel – well he really could be anything and is clearly fancied to run well given he is 7/1. He could be much better than this lot, he could not be. 7/1, in a race of 16 runners, maybe just about ok to find out but after 347 days off track I was happy to leave him. Major Jack gets cheekpieces for the first time which could help, and he is also unexposed for a trainer in red hot form. A lot of the rest are out of form but could bounce back. Demora needs to prove she stays and is in no form. Artic Feeling 0/5, 0 places when carrying (9-5+) and has also not been running too well. Eccleston is in and out but if putting in his best may have a squek. Sea The Sun has old form in the book to win this but is another who has been struggling for form. Barkston Ash is exposed and has yet to win above C3. Meshardal is improving but is another who needs to step up. Kimberalla and Barnet Fair have bits and pieces of form that could see them get competitive. The former is 0/10, 1 place from a rating OR91+, however is only 92 here and has been running into some form. Barnet Fair is 0/17 on good with all wins on Good to Firm and Firm. He is also better over 5f but has won over 6f. 

As I said you could make a case for a lot of these but Shore Step has a lot in his favour and will hopefully have these all at it in behind and will give it a good go, placing at worse. 

***

Northumberland Plate – I havent really looked at this race in depth and wont be betting big in it. A few stats caught the eye 

• 12/13 had won over at least 1m4f
• 12/13 5th or better LTO
• 11/13 stall 14 or lower (although high drawn horses have won so not impossible)
• 10/13 carried 8-12 or less

As I am looking for a fun bet or two those stats would leave a shortlist of Totalize, Notarised, Gabrial’s Star, Resiliency and Rite to Reign. 

That Chester Cup form is decent and GS didn’t get the cleanest of runs so he will carry £5 of mine, and I may have a nibble at Rite to Reign who has been running well.