I am off to Liverpool tomorrow for a week and will be starting my stay with a trip to Aintree. To get me in the mood I thought I would have a look at some jumping today. In truth nothing catches my eye in any of the sprint handicaps so I have reverted to my other favourite/profitable race type which is 3m+ handicap/graded chases…
7.40 Uttoxeter
High Ron 9/2 1 point win
This horse enjoys chasing at this track (2/2 over 2f further) and also looks like a ‘class ceiling horse’ all day long. Indeed he is 5/8 over fences when dropping into class 4. This compares to 0/7, 1 place in Class 3. That stat alone makes me want to back him as I am sure he will be profitable to follow over fences at this class. Now he likes decent ground so no problems there and we know he handles the track. He is also 4lb below his last winning mark and has won at this time of year. Having Tom Scu on board is always a positive in my book. He has plenty of stamina and does like to lead or push the pace. Now, there looks to be quite a bit on and I dont think he is a ‘sulker’ if not getting his own way, and actually what looks like a decent pace will help with his stamina near the end. If TS is able to dictate his own pace then it could be game over for the rest. He is a decent jumper on the whole. The slight niggle is that so far all of his wins have come with 1-7 runners. However, with only 4 runs in races with more (no places) some of which were in class 3, I am happy not to judge him on that score just yet. At 9/2 I felt there was enough there to take a chance on that one. For me that is his only blemish, and if he does run poorly today, I will be eagerly awaiting when he next appears in class 4, 1-7 runners and is able to dominate (lump on!)
What of the rest?
Well there are a few unexposed types in here from powerful stables. Orbys Man and River Deep are having their second chase starts having not performed too well in the first. They are 6yo’s, they are ‘could be anything’ chasers and as such could win. If either does I wont be surprised nor annoyed. I dont like backing that type of profile in a race like this. I want to see proven jumping and competitiveness in chases before loaning my money to the bookies. But, given their profiles, they are a couple to keep an eye on over the summer months.
Sail and Return has yet to prove his stamina over fences but is at least in form. Everaard has the ability to win this and his trainer is red hot at the moment. But he is so in and out that you do not know what you are going to get. But, if you want to take a chance 25s is at least a decent price. Not for me though – but if he puts it all together and has a going day, he is a danger.
Fort George isnt in great form and is getting on a bit, Book Of Excuses needs to show more (0/6, 0 places chasing) and comes here after a lengthy break. But if fit he is unexposed and it will all click at some point over fences for him – not for me today though. Midnight Cartaria is 0/4, 0 places chasing and I would like to see more, not in great form. Big Sound has chances but has yet to win a chase outside of novices but he is 1/3, 3 places over CD. He can make jumping errors but with a clear round he is a danger. Hounds Court is also in form, but looks to prefer the ground with juice in (0/7, 2 places on Good) all wins with soft in title. He also has stamina to prove beyond 2m6f. I dont like backing chasers in 3m+ races that have stamina to prove – just too much of an unknown. Yes you can make a judgement, and if the price is right have a go, but generally I want to know that stamina isnt’t going to be a problem.
So hopefully High Ron will run well, and if today isnt the day he is one to keep onside as his turn isn’t far in his conditions.
Good Luck
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In the 3.05 Nottingham I have had 1/2 point on Slunovrat at 2/1 as a pace angle. I think he will blast off in front, be able to dictate, and fingers crossed win as he pleases. The tactics in this race will make all the difference and while not a ‘tipping’ price I thought I would have an ‘action’ bet to see how he gets on. It is a step up in class but he won well last time and should be able to do his own thing in a 4 runner race. We shall see. Needless Shouting may try and pester him but I suspect the jockeys will come to an agreement!
In the 7.50 Haydock Landing Night was a ‘massive’ 9/4 which I have had 1/2 a point on. I was on him last time (Geegeez Stat of the Day pick) and he won with so much in hand. I won’t ‘tip’ at that price, and in truth haven’t looked at the other runners in much depth, but if he handles the track, he should go very close given he still looks to be ahead of his mark – although it isnt usually this easy. Another ‘action’ bet to get me through the day!
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I will be sending out some Ascot stats/trends tomorrow and there will also be a post on here later hopefully with a quick look at Aintree. It appears to be a decent card so if I preview anything it will be up here later, as I will be on a train for most of tomorrow.
Josh
