Munfallet 1 point win 9/2 (he was 13/2, maybe getting short now)
Well Bronze Beau could never get to the front last time and I read that pace wrong. I don’t think I appreciated the number of horses with 3’s next to their pace profile, which indicated they liked to press the pace.
Anyway, this is another Pace angle as a way in. He is the only out and out front runner based on recent runs, with the likes of Slim Chance being up there, but never leading. Hopefully he can get out and away up the near side rail and stay there unchallenged. The majority of the others are hold up horses (which wasnt the case in Bronze Beau race in truth, I am still learning) and he should be able to do as he pleases. He led a large field at Doncaster last time for quite a way and on his 3rd start after a break could be about to pounce. He is a CD winner who is open to improvement who gets quite a bit off his back with the jockey claim. I expect a bold run and thought 13/2 was too big late last night, so at least I got that bit right. The trainer is 5/14, 7 places at the track since 2009.
Manatee Bay is the obvious danger but I cant see the pace collapsing here. However, he is in form, looks to be improving still, and can defy this mark. He is entitled to win on what he has done to date, but coming from the back at this track can be tough. Rasaman can be given a chance but he just struggles to win, always finding a few too good. If everything goes right he wouldn’t be a shock winner, but he isnt getting any younger. The rest have too many questions to answer for me. VV hasnt won since his 2 year old days but if building on his last run may get involved but a slight leap of faith is required given his profile i think. Rock Canyon is in form but is 0/6, 0 places in C5+3.5k and above races. And 0/13, 2 places from a mark OR61+
I would be disappointed if anything else won!
As I write he has gone into 4s across the board and I don’t think I would want to take less than that personally.