Epsom Day 1

Not a day where I will be going mad, more some fun bets for interest…

Race 1, 2pm

Dont Be

(not an ‘official bet’ but I have bet 1/2 point EW 13/2)

14/14 were top 4 in betting 

14/14 had won a listed or Group 3 race, or above

The current top 4 in the betting, which looks likely to stay that way (Crowleys Law could gatecrash), are Odeliz, Bold Las, Lightening Thunder, Don’t Be. 

Don’t Be is the only Listed or above winner in the race and while some others have placed at a higher level (Odeliz second in race last season) this horse is a prolific winning machine. The yard are yet to start banging in the winners but they will do at some point and the trainer has a decent enough record at the track. With a clear run, and if she handles the track, I would be disappointed if she wasnt in there pitching at the business end. 

Not the kind of race I would say I bet in regularly, nor am i comfortable ‘tipping in’, but some strong stats there which made ‘quick’ analysis more straightforward. 

Race 2 2.35

Fire Fighting 1/2 point win 13/2 

Sennockian Star 1/2 point win 7/1 

(saver for change on What About Carlo) 

16/16 had won at least twice in career 

16/16 rated 86-105 (Fire Fighting 1lb higher) 

17/18 12/1 or shorter 

17/18 had won over 10f 

14/16 raced 8+ times in career

I think that leaves a shortlist of Tres Coronas, Mater or Finance, What About Carlo, Sennockian Star and Burano. 

The first thing to say is that Mark Johnston has a 0/16, 1 place record in the race, hence I haven’t gone ‘all out’ on his two here. However the yard is red hot at the moment and in the back of my mind is his performance at York’s Dante meeting where he had a poor record in a variety of race types, only to go and win nearly every race from memory on the final day!!

But if i ignore that stat they both look to have a fine chance on paper. Fire Fighting hacked up last time and as a 4yo could still have plenty to come. I also think the race will play to his strengths as there is so much pace in this to my eye and he can pick them all off late. He has course form too. 

SS has a perfect profile for this, when looking at all the factors using the HRB ‘Profiler’ tool He is one of the few horses in this race to have won a class 2 race worth at least £20k+ to winner. He doesnt have to lead and there will be plenty of pace for him to track. He is handicapped to win again on turf and comes here in decent form from the all-weather. 

For one reason or another I discounted the others – and have been through them all, outside of using the trends. Tres Coronas could run a decent race but likes it softer, is exposed, and is 0/12, 4 places in this level of Class 2 race (although similar class stats of 0/5, 0 places didnt stop Monsiur Joe at York the other day, and he was an old timer) He could well place. Master of Finance has a chance but wont get a soft lead here, however he ran really well lto. He has a chance. The Haggas horse is a bit too unexposed for me, but he is the only real ‘could be anything horse’ in the line up – but I am happy to take him on – he is up against hardy types here. Burano doesnt like winning and is 0/6, 0 places at this C2 level, and 0/8 rated OR91+. This is his first experience of the track, and the trainer’s record here since 2009 is 0/28. But, he is in form and is another you couldnt totally dismiss. Fattsota interested me but is 0/9 below 12f, has top weight, and will get in a pace battle up front which could do for him. If he suddenly performs over the trip he would have some chance but in a race like this you have to discount horses for certain reasons, and the pace/trip concern were mine. Spirit of the Law couldnt be totally dismissed although this race usually goes to one more fancied on the market – and I thought Hanagan would have had an option to ride any of the Fahey horses, so I took it as a negative that he isnt on him – not that you can always trust jockey judgement! On ‘profile’ he isnt totally dismissed. 

What About Carlo – if the blinkers work he will go very close. He has been disappointing in general this season. Blinkers are a coin toss in a race but 10/1 allows me to flip that coin and I have placed a ‘just in case’ 1/4 point on him at 10s. He has the course form and general form to go well. 

This will be fiercely run with a few front runners in the line up. You could make a case for many but hopefully, for small stakes, i get a decent run from the Mark Johnston two. Hopefully I haven’t picked the wrong ones from his yard! 

 

Race 3 – 3.10. I wont be betting in the race but the Geegeez Speed Ratings tell me that Arod should be hard to beat. But he is 2/1. A race to watch for me. 

 

Race 4 – 3.45. Another where I have no great interest. I haven’t looked at the race in much depth, but 3/1 about Abseil is fair enough I think after the encouraging seasonal return and he did win this race last season. He also has a superior speed rating and I have had a small interest bet on him- admittedly without really looking at the other horses. Definitely one of those bets that adds up come the end of the season!! 

 

Race 5 – The Oaks. Races that I like to watch, but 3yo G1s dont get me excited in terms of trying to solve the puzzle. That is just me. I have no real idea, but again the Fav and 1000 Gs winner looks to have a sold chance. Stamina should not be a concern and she has the best form in the book. Sometimes it can be as simple as that! Again a small interest bet, but I just hope for an entertaining race. 

 

I have no views on the remaining two remaining 3yo races. Ballymore Castle would be the speed rating pick in the 5.15 although a few have similar figures. I try and avoid 3yo handicaps  unless any ‘systems’ interest and with that said Make It Up (5.50) represents a trainer who knows how to win with his handicap debutantes, and he is in the free guide a gave away a few weeks ago. He will have to overcome a 16 year trend though – all 16 winners had ran at least once this season. That tempers enthusiasm somewhat, but he is fancied in the market, and trends are there to be broken. 

 

***

Midgley’s runner ran a credible 3rd yesterday at 10/1, to return some EW money. For a moment I thought he was going to sweep past them all to win. 

Irish Girl’s Spirit is a qualifier in the 2.50 Catterick and I have had 1/2 point on at 4/1. 

He also has Frosty Berry in the 6.10 Goodwood but he is nowhere near the 12/1 or below cut off just yet. 

***

 

Good Luck, 

Josh 

PS. I should add that all of the trends come from Gavin Priestley’s free guide which he gave away the other week. That saved quite a bit of time. 

 

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