Fanning + Midgley

Last year I backed a few Joe Fanning front runners to success, and following a comment on the blog a few days ago I thought I would dig a bit deeper and see what else cropped up. If there are any Fanning front runners I back moving forward I will do my best to highlight them. As ever if you can check the blog regularly, any posts will be up here by 10am,(bit later at weekends) and if they are later they get emailed out. 

Joe Fanning

2010 – ; Handicaps; 12/1 or under…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
1385 225 16.25 -144.68 526 37.98 -10.45 -28.89 -2.09 569 41.08 -2.83 13 0.93

Stats that catch the eye…

(as usual with me, these stats all focus on HANDICAPS)

Joe Fanning – A master in small fields…

No surprise here but his record on fancied runners, 5/1 or under, in races with 5 or fewer runners is impressive, when compared to races with more runners. One would think that he dictates the pace in plenty of these races…

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 89 43 48.31 40.04 53 59.55 44.99 46.08 51.78 57 64.04 3.25 1.35
2015 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -100 -2 -100 0 0 -2 0
2014 20 13 65 22.72 14 70 113.6 24.54 122.7 14 70 3.9 1.83
2013 29 13 44.83 6.19 18 62.07 21.34 7.08 24.4 19 65.52 0.85 1.23
2012 16 6 37.5 5.51 7 43.75 34.44 6.54 40.87 8 50 -2.15 1.22
2011 4 2 50 -1.19 4 100 -29.75 -1.1 -27.44 4 100 1.61 0.88
2010 18 9 50 8.81 10 55.56 48.94 11.03 61.26 12 66.67 1.05 1.37

6/1 or over = 27 bets / 2 wins / 7 places / -10.5 / AE 0.64

Joe Fanning has the best win % of any flat jockey in those conditions above, and is also the most profitable to date. Another to keep an eye on is Adam Kirby…

26 bets / 12 wins / 15 places / +15 points / AE 1.41

Now obviously in races with more runners you expect them to be more competitive, and as such harder to win. But even so his stats do drop off considerably…

6-12 runners…(still 5/1 or under)

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
478 99 20.71 -67.23 222 46.44 -14.06 -42.39 -8.87 238 49.79 -26.6 0.87

13+ runners…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
47 8 17.02 -11.99 23 48.94 -25.51 -7.59 -16.16 23 48.94 0.2 0.74

***

Trainer Track Combo

Joe Fanning / Mark Johnston / Hamilton / 5/1 or under

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 39 15 38.46 20.58 22 56.41 52.77 21.52 55.19 23 58.97 5.36 1.44
2014 10 2 20 0 4 40 0 0.15 1.51 4 40 -1.35 0.9
2013 13 5 38.46 8.2 8 61.54 63.08 8.34 64.15 9 69.23 5.03 1.43
2012 10 5 50 8.88 6 60 88.8 9.31 93.07 6 60 0.43 1.75
2010 6 3 50 3.5 4 66.67 58.33 3.73 62.1 4 66.67 1.25 1.61

6/1 – 18/1 = 33 bets / 2 wins / 9 places / -13 points / AE 0.56

They have had 1 winner at 20/1 from 1 bet, and don’t have many bigger priced runners. They are generally hard to find when unfancied (6/1+) but that doesn’t stop you trying to unearth them. 

NO qualifiers today from what i can see, although Fanning does ride at the track today. 

***

Track/Distance Combo

Beverley / 10f-12.5f / 12/1 or under

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 47 14 29.79 33 21 44.68 70.21 47.99 102.1 21 44.68 1.97 1.4
2015 4 0 0 -4 1 25 -100 -4 -100 1 25 -1.25 0
2014 10 5 50 18 5 50 180 20.65 206.5 5 50 2.46 2.05
2013 16 3 18.75 -1.25 7 43.75 -7.81 0.51 3.18 7 43.75 -2.41 0.82
2012 7 4 57.14 17.5 4 57.14 250 25.59 365.51 4 57.14 2.65 2.61
2011 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -100 -2 -100 0 0 -2 0
2010 8 2 25 4.75 4 50 59.38 7.24 90.54 4 50 2.52 1.44

10 runners or under: 13/35, 17 places, +32 points SP

11 runners+ : 1/12, 3 places, + 1 point

***

Ffos Las, 12/1 or under

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 15 7 46.67 19.63 11 73.33 130.87 23.47 156.49 12 80 12.19 2.06
2012 1 1 100 3 1 100 300 3.33 333.45 1 100 0.61 4
2011 1 1 100 9 1 100 900 9.98 997.5 1 100 1.71 10
2010 13 5 38.46 7.63 9 69.23 58.69 10.16 78.18 10 76.92 9.87 1.64

He doesn’t go there very often, and hasn’t been there for a couple of years, but is definitely worth noting if he turns up there again in future.

***

This is just a quick look through. I could spend a lot longer digging no doubt. Nothing else has stood out in line with the categories above. If you have any angles of interest you would like me to look at (in handicaps) for Joe Fanning let me know.

***

Paul Midgley 

That ‘June Trainer’ had 1 runner in a handicap yesterday at 12/1 or under, Mississippi, which won at 12/1 (-10p R4) backed into 15/2, 8.10 Ripon. I hope you were on. If we include his winner last Saturday (it was nearly June! – I didn’t back him) then he is now 2/2, +23 points or so. 

I would be keen to back Mississippe again next time, although he has never been the most consistent. But, he had a troubled passage, was stopped in his run, and Lee still didnt need to pick up the whip. He did benefit from a strong pace, to the eye at least. Barkston Ash ran a cracker – i thought he may lead up the rail but he started slowly again, and ran on really well having been behind horses on the rail. He needs some riding but it was nice to see him return to form. If he can get away on terms, and get an easy/uncontested lead, he should be winning soon

Midgley has 1 qualifier again today…

4.30 Hamilton Orient Sky 10/1 

He is unexposed and the trainer does ok at the track, Either way, it is June, so he should run ok! I will be having a small EW bet, with plenty left after yesterday’s win. 

***

Epsom starts tomorrow and I will be going on Saturday for the first time. I suspect I will be backing something tomorrow and will let you know in due course. 

 

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5 Responses

  1. Hello only found out about your service a short while ago love the articles when funds available wil subscribe.

  2. Great angle for Joe Fanning in small fields – thanks for doing the digging for that. Very nice to see Paul Midgley kicking off to a good start. A question for you, I’m thinking of Joe Fanning in particular but its a general question, can you explain your thoughts on what factors influence wether a horse is ridden to lead, be prominent or held up ? I know I’m looking for the goose that lays the golden eggs but at least having some idea predicting run styles would help. Thanks.

    1. oh blimey, that is a good question. I would have to speak to a trainer, or someone that deals with horses more than I ever have! Take Mark Johnston – get the impression in general he likes all of his horses to race prominently, and try and push the pace. Not sure why, but keeps them out of trouble and they are generally tough and dont like to be passed. There will be horse psychology at play no doubt, at heart these are herd animals if found in the wild, and some clearly see themselves as ‘leaders’, and like to dominate. That is also why you see some horses unwilling to go past the ‘leader of the pack’ and just wont put their head infront. I think that is correct! In some circumstances if a jockey knows his horse has lots of stamina they will make it a test.
      But in any case, the joy of backing handicappers is that they build up a profile and if they front run, they front run. Sometimes tactics change etc,

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