Epsom Dash

I am just about to set off for Epsom for the first time and it feels like a challenging day, as you would expect…

3.45 Epsom Dash

Desert Law 1 point EW 16/1 5 places.

There are three main trends I used as a guide,

  • 17/18 had finished in top 3 at least once this season
  • 17/18 had won a class 3 handicap
  • 15/16 had won a handicap over 5f

I believe that leaves a shortlist of Monsieur Joe, Boom The Groom, Normal Equilibrium, Humidor, Silvanus, Confessional, Monumental Man, Chiclet, Desert Law

Monsieur Joe won a shade cosily last time out I thought but he is 0/18, 2 places from a mark or 101+. He was fairly well beaten in this race last season and will need luck in running given his style. Given his form and his ‘June trainer’ I should think he will return EW money, but I think he may struggle to win.

Boom The Groom is better on the AW but I do find him interesting at a big price and a big run wouldn’t be a surprise, of transferring his Aw form to he turf. The trainer is 1/44 in last 30 days which is slightly off putting. Humidor is 0/9, 1 place in Class 2 handicaps and Slivanus and Confessional also have it to do at this level. Monumental Man is 0/6, 1 place in fields of 12+ and he wont be able to dominate. He should give a lead to the selection from the low numbers which will be much needed. However he is 2/2 at Epsom and he will be in the right place, out of trouble. That big field stats isn’t as conclusive as some so a big run could be in the offing. Chiclet is better in the AW and is 1/9 on turf – just a few doubts as to the surface but she is unexposed.

Normal Equilibrium is interesting but he doesn’t win very often, only 2/30 in handicaps, but the same can be said about my selection. Given he is a trends fit, and the trainer, he has to be given a small chance I think.

In what feels a very open race I have gone with Desert Law and that man Paul Midgley whose string are running well, as expected. I hope he gets backed a bit but either way that York run two starts ago has to catch the eye. It looks like the best 5f handicap form so far I think. All of those horses around him that day have gone on to run better races and he should be going in at some point this season if he repeats that run. I am not concerned by the draw as he will be taken into the race by MM and he likes to race handily. He also came second in this race in 2012 off an 8lb lower mark. I am happy to ignore his last run and if he repeats that York form I would hope we are collecting EW money at worse.

I picked the winner of this race last season and Caspian Prince lines up again. At his best he may balst away and not be caught but he is not in the same form, comes here after a longer than ideal break imo, and is a lot higher in the handicap. I am happy to take him on. If Seeking Magic repeats his run in this last year he will go close but he needs plenty of luck in running. I had my eye on Duke of Firenze as I thought he may be being aimed at this, but his run last time was just a bit too poor for my liking. But he has back form to go well. I don’t think Perfect Muse has won a C3 handicap, but if ignoring that he is unexposed and is another you could give a chance too!

You could give chances to most of these and it feels open with every horse in the race having some sort of question to answer.

***

As I am going to the track today I will have an interest in the two MJ horses in the first two races, Resonant (could lead all the way) and Burantino – although Miss Moneypenny catches the eye as well. I have stuck a few pennies on Buthelezi EW later on the card as he could lead them as well and could run a big race. I have no views on the Derby and will throw £5 at something, maybe Success Days who is the pace angle. Not a race I have looked at in any depth. In the last race Secretinthepark and Iseemist catch the eye but as yet I haven’t decided what I will be backing, I may not have much money left by that point 🙂

Good Luck with your bets,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Your bet Desert Law as the worst of the draw in stall one,at Epsom high drawn runners have an advantage over 5 furlongs.
    Desert Law could win but it will be a surprise if it did from stall one,for me this is one stat you should look at
    Cheers
    Colin

  2. Hi

    Desert Law wins and no email to alert anyone what makes it even worse is on top of that how O.T.T is performing. The profit would of gone a long way to easing that pain.

    1. Hi Jim, sorry you missed it. I have said numerous times, indeed at the start of a post a couple of days ago that if I am going to post there will be something up here by 10am and if not then I will email out after if necessary as well. I cant email out everytime I post, I planned to this morning but ran out of time,I was finishing the post as my lift was waiting to take me to the course. I have posted on most Saturdays and I dare say quite a few are in the habit of just checking if there is anything new on the site.

      OTT, I am always happy to discuss that over email, but yes it has performed below expectations so far.

      Josh

  3. excellant job josh and trainer got the second as well,watched the race thrilling stuff (course it would have been great to be there) but im happy backing the winner.

  4. Hi Josh, great profiling with Midgley. I like the look of Oldjoesaid today, got some good back class even if a bit old, but then so am I. With regard to the comment above about OTT if at this stage anyone is still following it blindly then they only have themselves to blame. I am very selective but as you know gave up on it after about 6 weeks, although the OTT bank was in profit, too many selections for me to analyse and decide on, so not suiting my methods. I expect it will end up making a small profit but the roi won’t be up to much. Not sure how you refine it without it becoming a tipping line rather than a system which I am sure is an outcome you would not want.
    All the best
    Hugh

    1. Hi Hugh, well trainer systems are a test of patience and even more so with a portfolio. I won’t be judging it until after the year is up and then I will have some thinking to do as to its future. I still back them all blind 🙂 as I still have faith in the trainers and methods, I dont have time or inclination to add form study, and a 40 point bank has never come under threat so we shall see if the trainers can get into profit. Given most of them are a winner or two from doing so I see no reason why it can’t/won’t pick up. It has just over 5 months to prove itself. Its the annoying thing with trainer systems like that in the sense that you can never be sure when the winners will come,.
      Take your point about methods,we are all different, esp when it comes to using systems.
      Josh

  5. Hugh ever you are. You seem to totally miss the point of a system… place bet and leave, no form reading involved if there was it would not be a system!!!!

    1. I am more in your camp with this one Jim, hence why I back all of them regardless of form – that is why price is used as well, as some kind of guide to price.

      Having said that my approach to micro systems can be slightly different and while I back of all Midgley’s qualifiers EW for example, there are some I am more sparing with and may use to help with my own analysis.

      But, everyone is different. I dare say there are many punters like Hugh who do use systems but along with their own form analysis. Everyone to their own – I like systems because it does take away the form/analysis aspect. There is no right or wrong in this game, and just using a system doesn’t mean you have to back all selections systematically- but that is just my opinion. Yours may be different 🙂 (as as i have said I back every OTT selection to £20 on the nose, win only)

      Josh

  6. Hi Jim, I understand the logic of systems but I don’t have the right psychological make up to cope with long losing runs. Each to their own.

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