I am just about to set off for Epsom for the first time and it feels like a challenging day, as you would expect…
3.45 Epsom Dash
Desert Law 1 point EW 16/1 5 places.
There are three main trends I used as a guide,
- 17/18 had finished in top 3 at least once this season
- 17/18 had won a class 3 handicap
- 15/16 had won a handicap over 5f
I believe that leaves a shortlist of Monsieur Joe, Boom The Groom, Normal Equilibrium, Humidor, Silvanus, Confessional, Monumental Man, Chiclet, Desert Law
Monsieur Joe won a shade cosily last time out I thought but he is 0/18, 2 places from a mark or 101+. He was fairly well beaten in this race last season and will need luck in running given his style. Given his form and his ‘June trainer’ I should think he will return EW money, but I think he may struggle to win.
Boom The Groom is better on the AW but I do find him interesting at a big price and a big run wouldn’t be a surprise, of transferring his Aw form to he turf. The trainer is 1/44 in last 30 days which is slightly off putting. Humidor is 0/9, 1 place in Class 2 handicaps and Slivanus and Confessional also have it to do at this level. Monumental Man is 0/6, 1 place in fields of 12+ and he wont be able to dominate. He should give a lead to the selection from the low numbers which will be much needed. However he is 2/2 at Epsom and he will be in the right place, out of trouble. That big field stats isn’t as conclusive as some so a big run could be in the offing. Chiclet is better in the AW and is 1/9 on turf – just a few doubts as to the surface but she is unexposed.
Normal Equilibrium is interesting but he doesn’t win very often, only 2/30 in handicaps, but the same can be said about my selection. Given he is a trends fit, and the trainer, he has to be given a small chance I think.
In what feels a very open race I have gone with Desert Law and that man Paul Midgley whose string are running well, as expected. I hope he gets backed a bit but either way that York run two starts ago has to catch the eye. It looks like the best 5f handicap form so far I think. All of those horses around him that day have gone on to run better races and he should be going in at some point this season if he repeats that run. I am not concerned by the draw as he will be taken into the race by MM and he likes to race handily. He also came second in this race in 2012 off an 8lb lower mark. I am happy to ignore his last run and if he repeats that York form I would hope we are collecting EW money at worse.
I picked the winner of this race last season and Caspian Prince lines up again. At his best he may balst away and not be caught but he is not in the same form, comes here after a longer than ideal break imo, and is a lot higher in the handicap. I am happy to take him on. If Seeking Magic repeats his run in this last year he will go close but he needs plenty of luck in running. I had my eye on Duke of Firenze as I thought he may be being aimed at this, but his run last time was just a bit too poor for my liking. But he has back form to go well. I don’t think Perfect Muse has won a C3 handicap, but if ignoring that he is unexposed and is another you could give a chance too!
You could give chances to most of these and it feels open with every horse in the race having some sort of question to answer.
As I am going to the track today I will have an interest in the two MJ horses in the first two races, Resonant (could lead all the way) and Burantino – although Miss Moneypenny catches the eye as well. I have stuck a few pennies on Buthelezi EW later on the card as he could lead them as well and could run a big race. I have no views on the Derby and will throw £5 at something, maybe Success Days who is the pace angle. Not a race I have looked at in any depth. In the last race Secretinthepark and Iseemist catch the eye but as yet I haven’t decided what I will be backing, I may not have much money left by that point 🙂
Good Luck with your bets,