While not a betting ‘bonanza’ hopefully there is something for everyone below. I have had a look at the 3.10 Kempton and have a two bets in that race. There is also a trainer whose handicap debutants should be kept onside, with a ‘qualifier’ today. And finally, news of a 9/1 ‘Profile’ winner yesterday from the 145 I follow as well two big priced runners today.
Best Boy Barney 7/1 1.25 point win (£25 for me at £20 a point) 2nd
Gallery Exhibition 12/1 0.75 point win (£15 for me at £20 a point) UP
(2 points total)
UPDATE The class horse in the race has won that. I wasnt sure, well I should re phrase – wanted to see evidence that he truly stayed 3m and he wasnt a price where I felt I could overlook that. I suppose if you get 2m5f around Cheltenham in Graded races then there is every chance you will get 3m around Kempton on that ground. (you really do have to stay when it is testing) Cracking run from BBB who has bumped into a classy horse who returned to form. There were signs of life last time although I was disappointed with how seemed to fade. It was nice to see CC do that, even if it hurt the wallet, but happy with the bet at the prices. Gallery Exhibition is not in that class it would appear, but we go the ‘value’ 🙂 A few weeks off and another tight track and I expect BBB to go well again, provided there is no Champion Court – although he has had a tough race there.
This is a competitive race with quite a few in form and a few in no form at all, trying to recapture their best.
Best Boy Barney loves this ground (5/7 on good over fences) and this track. I can see no reason why he won’t be able to reproduce his win here a couple of weeks ago and no reason why he won’t put up another bold show. On recent runs he is the only out and out front runner in the race although a few of these have tried to make all before in their careers. However, unlike some horses that must front run, he doesn’t sulk if taken on. He can still run a decent race if others are around him and as long as his jockey doesn’t get into a speed dual he should go close. He could well improve for that run last time and if he can dominate from the front we could well be cheering him all the way home. 7/1 is a decent price.
Gallery Exhibition and Sedgemoor Express were the other two on my shortlist however I have just gone with the former. He is unexposed over fences, stays this trip and the trainer is in cracking form – 5/7 in the past two weeks. The level of his form is debateable however he did have Until Winning behind him at Ludlow and he has since won a couple in good style. He should track the pace which means he could be in the right spot if they do go too quickly upfront. He will stay the trip and although he needs to step up in this larger field, I felt 12/1 was worth taking to find out just how good he is.
Sedgemoor Express looks like he could well improve for this step up but I want to see a bit more before backing him. I did wonder why they haven’t tried him over this trip sooner if they really thought he would stay and in the end GE’s recent winning form, and proven stamina, swung it for me. If he stays he is still unexposed as a chaser and a big run would be no surprise.
Shuil Royale is the obvious danger and is clearly still improving for connections at the age of 10. The one niggle was that he is usually held up and that could cause all kinds of problems here. If the pace is right up front it is very hard to come from too far back at this track. However that was the only concern and I couldn’t say much else to put you off. I just felt 9/2 was about right and that Best Boy Barney should be the same price based on recent form. I prefer prominent racers here over fences. But, if he isn’t held up too far back he clearly has a favourites chance.
The rest all have a lot to prove in my opinion. I don’t really like backing out of form horses unless that have a clear profile. Champion Court is out of sorts and needs to prove he stays. Not for me. If Vino Griego ran like he did at Aintree last season he would go close but has also been out of sorts. Chase the Spud is inexperienced but comes here having been Pulled Up twice. He may be too inexperienced and put in a very poor round of jumping last time. He could help force the pace but I suspect his jumping won’t be able to match that of BBB. American Spin is just out of form, really out of form, with no signs of life for me to warrant an interest. I am sure Tom Cannon could have ridden him but he has bypassed him. He does like the month of May, and has won well here before but this front runner has been struggling to lay up with the pace in recent runs and I am happy to leave him today. He is the kind of horse that can make you look like an idiot however, but is too hard to predict. I can see no reason why Caulfield Venture will finish ahead of BBB this time around. The 7lb rise shouldn’t be enough and his only hope is that the selection makes errors or goes too hard upfront. The others have too much to prove and I would be disappointed if any of them won. Wings of Smoke, Brass Tax and Dursey Sound are generally out of form and they all have major stamina questions to answer.
Handicap Debutant Trainer: Mrs A J Perrett
4.15 Bath – Approaching 2nd
- Flat Turf Handicap (April-October)
- Class 4, 5 or 6
- Horse Runs in a Handicap: 0
- 12/1 or under.
Never too many bets so a nice little angle to add to any portfolio, or just to help you get a grip on any such runners that appear in races you are looking to have a bet in.
Anyone that noted down the ’90 Day Trainer’ post helped themselves to 10/1 and 6/1 winners yesterday, courtesy of Ralph Beckett. (+ 1 loser as well)
Well as luck would have it the two horses from the 10 free Profiles that have had their conditions haven’t run very well at all. If, based on those two runs, your reaction has been ‘what a crap approach’ (which was the general tone of one email I received) then profiling is clearly not for you 🙂 But hopefully some of you can see the long term benefit of profiling and the potential profit you can make…
A horse called Hopes And Dreams, a member of the ‘full time’ team of 145, ran yesterday at Hamilton. Before yesterday her form at the track, in Class 2 races worth less than £20k to the winner was 1,1,1,7,1,1,1,3….and now we can add another 1 to that formline. She wasn’t hard to find but was still available at 9/1 in the morning and returned at 7/1. She was completely out of form but for some of these horses it doesn’t matter if they are running in their favoured conditions.
For openness I should add that there were a couple of losers (9/1 3rd and an UP) as well, but it was still a +7 point afternoon for the profiles.
Anyway, there are two more runners today that I don’t mind sharing…
Border Bandit 20/1 2nd
Ideal Conditions: 8f or 8.5f, no worse than good to soft, rated OR80 or less
Form in Cond: 4,1,7,2,2,1,1,3,1,6,1,1.
Positives: He has fallen back to a mark of OR80 and has a perfect fit for the profile above. Also 2/2 over Course and Distance.
Negatives: In two runs this season he has shown very little and looks completely out of form.
My Verdict: He has his ideal conditions and is 20/1. I will be backing him ½ point EW (1 point total) with 3 places to aim at. Yes he looks out of form but that is why he is 20/1 and, as with Hopes And Dreams, these horses don’t have to be in form when returning to ideal conditions. The market suggests (unless he gets well backed) today may not be his day but I am happy to find out at those odds, especially with 3 places to aim at.
Since the start of the Flat season my flat profiles, and the way I have backed them (mixture of 1/4 points through to 1 point win bets) are now 5/23, +19.5 points. Those priced 14/1 or under now 5/15 +27.5 points
Meetings Man 25/1 UP
Ideal Conditions: 1-7 runners, Good – Good To Firm
Form in Cond: 1,3,1,3,1,1,1,1
Positives: He has his ideal conditions in accordance with his profile. If the jockey wants to make all I can’t see anyone that will stop him dictating from the front.
Negatives: As I have said in the guide you do need to consider other factors and make a judgement call. This horse is 0/3, 0 places, when returning to the flat after 121+ days. 25/1 suggests this is not his day. 0/13, 3 places, when priced over 8/1 in flat handicaps. And 0/19 when you add in his AW runs. This suggests that the market is usually a good guide as to his chance.
My Verdict: ½ point win 25/1 or BFSP. As I have said before when the horse has his ideal conditions I will have something on, especially at those odds. Today may well not be his day but he will win again for me at some point and should be profitable to follow in the long run. I am not betting EW as there are only 2 places and if he isn’t fit enough he will drop out, and not place anyway.