A bit of everything today. Firstly there are some thoughts on Punchestown including an ‘official’ bet. I then outline every other bet I have had today with some reasons why. These have stemmed from the same routine I go through most days.
6.40 Bright New Dawn UP 16/1 1/2 point EW, + 1/2 point win (1.5 point bet)
Well Bright New Dawn was poor but happy with the selection, (if that makes sense) I am obviously disappointed he couldnt even place. I got the winner completely wrong as I wasnt sure if he would be good enough as a novice for what I thought would be a very competitive race, despite winning a G2 LTO. Clearly he is way ahead of his mark and going the right way, even aged 10. There were 30lbs on ratings between the winner and my selection, just going to show official ratings mean diddly squat when faced with unexposed horses up against those that could underperform. On reflection I dont think I would have selected him, but was maybe too swayed by his rating, and didnt fully consider the fact he was open to improvement. I also questioned his stamina over fences. Maybe I was blinded by the jockey (3/43) and trainer (2/29) stats which I looked at, as in truth, they probably dont send/ride too many decent horses here. Anyway, I always reflect on my ‘tipping’ when a horse bolts up and I am not on/didnt talk about them at all and what I missed when looking at them – as that is the only way to get better at this game. I will put a line through that.
This looks a typically competitive renewal and I havent used any stats or trends etc. I have just used my usual approach which is a mixture of geegeez racecards and Horseracebase.
This horse has been disappointing but I thought worth backing at the odds for a few reasons. Firstly this is only his second ever handicap and this could well be his level. He has been highly tried in small field grade 1s and 2s over fences without being good enough, although he has been running ok. This is a drop in class and it could just be that a big field cavalry charge will suit him well. 20f looks to be his trip, he has course form, the ground will be fine, and he is in the ‘unknown’ category in terms of a handicapper. He also wears cheekpieces for the first time. He usually races prominently so there shouldn’t be any excuses. He is still unexposed over fences but at the same time has enough experience for a race like this, having had 11 starts. He is also a class 1, Grade 2 winner which sets him apart from quite a few in this race. Track, distance, ground, class, field size are all fine. All in all he was the most interesting to me. He has conditions to suit and I would hope he could put up a bold show.
I have been through every other runner and nothing else stood out for me, not that I would want to back anyway. There are a lot of old timers in here and quite a few that are badly out of form. I would like to think none of those from Strongpoint down will be good enough to win this race. Baby Mix has his second run after a lengthy break and could bounce, in any case I would want to see more. You Must Know Me keeps making costly errors and could be a bit too unexposed for a race like this, although if putting it all together is open to improvement. Pass The Hat, Klepht and Art of Logistics havent shown enough on recent starts for me. Foilbubh is 11 now and finds it increasingly hard to get his head infront. He is only 3/33 over fences and that, with his age, is enough to put me off. Rubi Light could be given a squeak but as yet hasn’t performed in a big field chase, with all wins coming in races with 11 runners or less. 0/5, 0 places 12+ runners in chases. He isn’t getting any younger either. There should be something better handicapped in here, but he will run a solid race no doubt. Turban has the class to win this but has a few too many letters next to his name. He has fell in 3 of his last 7 chases which is enough to put me off. There will be no place to hide in a race like this. With a clear round he will run a solid race and could go close. Rathlin has been running well but had a hard race last time out. Cooper leaves him alone here. He is also 0/11 in the last couple of years and clearly finds it hard to win now. Toon River and Gold Bullet are interesting because they are in form, recent winning form. Gold Bullet is only having his 7th chase start. This is a different test from anything faced so far but he is going the right way and clearly has a chance. All of Toon Rivers best runs have been in the hands of Davy Russell so the jockey would concern me however he won really well last time and is clearly at the top of his game. No winners have come out of that race yet though from 8 to have tried and the break of 53 days is longer than ideal for me.
So, very open but I am happy with Bright New Dawn at the prices. 16s EW looks big to me.
In the 4.55 I have had a small bet on Thistlecrack EW 8/1 (2nd) but that is only based on his win last time, which may not amount to much. I found it interesting that connections sent him here, indicating they rate him highly. The two ahead of him may have a bit too much class but we shall see.
In the big one I will just be watching and enjoying the spectacle. It looks a cracker of a race and you would think one of the top 3 will win, but I have no strong views on which one that will be. If the two Gold Cup horses are over those exertions they should be fighting it out again. Don Cossack needs to prove his stamina, and a Grade 1 is a tough place to do that in a race where there will be no hiding place. He may relish the step up but I wouldnt want to take 3s to find out. If I could gurantee Djackadam would run as he did in the Gold Cup I would be with him, just. It could come down to tactics or one error, that may split the top two come the post.
My other bets today. (not ‘advised’ but for interest)
First To Post 4/1 2nd
Geegeez Gold has a new report looking at 2 year olds making their first start. I would never normally bet in a race such as this but today it shows me that Richard Fahey is 5/18, 9 places, with his 2yo newcomers at Ponte over the last 5 years, for +40 points. Today may not be the day but over time I should do fine with his runners here.
Luna Moon 6/4 WON
Another from the geegeez reports (which are a Gold mine! 🙂 ) They tell me that in the last 5 years Jeremy Noseda is is 6/11, 9 places with his handicap debutants at the track. Its only +5 points mind, although I am sure you could have done better taking bigger prices. With those stats I thought I would have a go.
Laura B 3/1 UP
Trainer and Jockey are 5/10 when teaming up at the track She is a bit exposed compared to some of these but I have done ok following similar type stats with these reports in recent weeks so thought why not! Her placed form is very consistent and in a poor race repetition of that may be good enough.
I am still looking for front runners everyday that I think may stay there. Safe to say I am finding my ‘flat feet’ at the moment. The intention is to ramp up the Sprint Handicap analysis as well as highlighting any front runners that could stay out, especially in small fields. I think it is wise to let the form settle down a bit, especially as there are a few unknowns about those that are having their first run after a break. It is also a mental shift for me, from jumping to the flat and making sure I am analysing races properly.
Having said all of that, and if to ignore my own advice, I have had a small nibble on Westwood How in the 3.10 at 7/1. (2nd 14/1) He made all a couple of times in his maidens for Gosden and if his new connections want to make all i cant see anyone that will take them on, based on their previous runs. This isnt the kind of pace bet (or any bet for that matter) to have really. Handicap debut, turf debut, after some poor quality maidens, 122 day break and a slight drift in the market! Connections may use this as a sighter and for them to get to know the horse. We shall see, but is was another £10 (1/2 point) on for me.
Micro system bets…
I have uploaded a free report for my OneTrackTrainers Subscribers (more on that in a bit) called ’90 day trainers’ and it pulls together some of the trainers i researched on here plus a couple of new ones. The three below are Cumani, Gosden and Beckett which I have shared before. I post selections for these bonus systems everyday for members, but for today only the following have cropped up, for interest…
5.10 Ascot – Saigon City 2nd 7/1>9/2
7.30 Ling – Mr Bossy Boots UP + Sacred Act 2nd 8/1
OneTrackTrainers… I had hoped to open the doors again for this service as there is still room for 100 or so more subscribers. However, so far it has been an abject first 6 months and until it picks up you wont hear much from me about it. It is about -38 points down at the moment. Given that is about -2 points per trainer I am not concerned as yet. Over the whole of 2014 their performance was as expected, but they need to do it ‘live’. While the flat season was always going to be make or break (most profitable and numerous trainers in portfolio are Flat) I didnt expect the first few months to be so poor. It has tested my patience and that of those loyal subscribers still sticking with it. I still back every selection to £20 stakes on the nose and have every confidence that all 16 trainers will come good. A +4 point profit day yesterday was a welcome relief. Out of 201 bets or so to date 42 have come 2nd which sums things up so far…nearly, but no quite. That is the nature of trainer based systems and a portfolio approach and it will turn around, but until it does, and until it proves itself, (getting to +50/80 points live) the doors won’t be open again. I wont be judging it until after 12 months and it is only a handful of big priced winners away from getting back on track – but I feel like I have been saying that since Christmas!
(There are 3 bets today and I hope a couple go in!)
Anyway, moving on…
Nothing today really. Fathom Five (5.20) gets his conditions but looks to be on the way down and until money comes you cant have much confidence in him. Completely out of sorts. He is 11 now but did win 3 times last season so we shall see if he comes back to life at some point. He is usually a first half of the season horse and he could get an easy lead today. I had to have £5 on today (1/4 point for me) just in case, although i probably shouldn’t have. If he does win again it may come as a surprise (went in at 20s last season) so maybe my dogged faith will be rewarded at some point!
I will be sending you some free flat profiles in the next couple of days to add to your trackers. Unlike my fascination with trainer angles this is a very different approach based on the horse. I will also record a video on what profiling is to me etc. My records for profile horses this flat season so far are 4 wins from 17 bets. For me that is +15 points. Quite a few of those have been big prices and the record for those priced 14/1 or under is 4 wins from 9 bets, 2 further places.
More on that over the next few days but I hope it may be an approach that interests some of you.
Right, that’s it for today. Good Luck with your Wednesday bets.