Just a quick post to say that there isn’t anything I really fancy on day 3 at Punchestown which is dominated by races that I wouldn’t normally bet in.
Having said that I have had a small interest bet on BOG WAR in the 3.40 at 5/1. For me, with 5 places, this is an each way bet to nothing. To my eye he is the only one in the race with proven big field handicap form, who comes here at the top of his game, and who has confirmed himself as being progressive. He has the best big field handicap hurdle form on offer from what I can see. If he completes I would be surprised if there were 5 better horses than him in the race. I can see why he is favourite and arguably, on what they have all shown to date, he could be shorter.
This isn’t an ‘official’ bet simply because I haven’t gone through every runner in depth and have only had a cursory glance. It is also a race full of unknowns. Quite a few are stepping out of maiden company who could be hiding something. The market actually suggests they are simply a poor bunch and there are no plot jobs in here – i mean who plots up a horse for an £14k/ hurdle?? This isnt a Cheltenham handicap.
Anyway, after my cursory glance the favourite looks the most likely winner and 5/1 with ladbrookes allowed me to have, what I think, is an each way bet to nothing. Although, often when I say such things (Rockey Creek!) it all falls apart, so we shall see. He only raced a few days ago but won really well and I don’t think the rise will stop him. He also stays further which is no bad thing in a race like this.
There isn’t anything else on the card I could even bring myself to have an interest bet in. I fully expect Quantitativeeasing to win, and I hope he does. He could have made Cheltenham a profitable experience but for being carried out when looking like he would go close. But, 5/4 is probably right and is a bit to short for me this time. He isn’t the 10/1 I got for his last run, and he did come 4th in this race last year so does have to prove it over this track.
Elsewhere there is something again of interest for you system/micro angle lovers.
I have been playing around with Mark Johnston handicappers and trying to find ways to profit. A selection cropped up today from a system I researched last year.
Johnston Flat Handicappers
1st in a Handicap Last Time Out
Running in the same class as last time out
12/1 or under
Results (2009-): 116 bets / 33 winners / 58 places / +77 points BFSP/ AE 1.25
It wont make you rich but only averages 20 bets a season and it is nice to know such runners have a 28.5% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.
One ‘qualifier today’
3.55 Recar Triple Dip
Now he is drifting but I remember he beat a horse I was on last time out from the front. He looks like the only front runner in the race and he should get his own way up front. There are a few unexposed ‘could be anything’ types in here but I have had 1/2 EW on at 8/1.
It is also worth noting that Johnston has changed things in his yard this year with a different approach- i believe he has a lot more 2yo’s than ever before. So, it will be interesting if his approach to winning two or more on the bounce with his handicappers continues, and if having a different type of horse in the yard affects things moving forward.