A welcome return to the winner’s enclosure for the blog last week and hopefully I can follow it up in the big race on Saturday…
3.50 Sandown*
Grand Jesture 10/1 1.5 points win
Algernon Pazham 25/1 0.5 point each way 5 places Bet365
Vics Canvas 16/1 0.5 point win
(3 points bets in total)
*prices as of 19.00 24/04/15
Firstly some stats of interest…
(320 runners in total over 18 years)
- 11/18 Top 6 LTO
- 61% of winners, from 48% of runners. Ok, but not a stat to be ‘blinkered’ with 🙂
- 0/34, 1 place FELL last time out
- 1/44, 2 places, Pulled Up last time out
- 1/18 (1/36 runners, 3 places) carried 11-6lb or more. 11% runners, 5.5% of winners
- 17/18 Had won 0,1 or 2 Handicap Chases
- 1/80 runners, 11 places has won 3 or more. 25% of runners, would expect 25% of winners? 4.5. This would suggest it pays to focus on the more unexposed runners, or those who have applied themselves in graded company for most of their careers.
- 1/68, 12 places, ran 8-15 days ago
- In itself nothing to be too dogmatic about. I had a look at those that ran at Aintree last time out. On the face of it the stats are good, 5/117, ran there last time out. However, depending on the calendar there can be different gaps between Aintree and Sandown. Those that raced there 8-15 days ago (this year’s runners) are 0/30, 3 places. This would suggest it is a tough ask to come from a hard race at Aintree, or a race where you had been primed to run your best, and put in a decent performance here. It is a small sample, but I found it interesting nonetheless. In other years there can be an extra week between meetings.
A strict interpretation of those stats above would leave you a shortlist of… (ignoring finishing position last time out for now)… Grand Jesture, Le Reve, Vics Canvas, Just A Par, RDF, Return Spring, Paint The Clouds, Algernon Pazham.
As always use those stats as a guide. I have been through the race ‘normally’ (I could be accused of being lazy in the past and just looking at the stats/trends shortlist!)
Grand Jesture –
Unexposed and in the could be anything category, he ran a stormer at Cheltenham last time and looks to have been kept for this. He was beaten by a good horse that day but I like the way he battled and climbed the hill into second place. He didnt give up and looked like a true stayer. Like with a few of these I dont know if he will truly stay in a competitive race such as this but there is only one way to find out. He has a great profile and he races prominently. There should be no excuses. Given his inexperience he could well clout the odd fence but again that is the risk you take with a more unexposed type. I think 10s is a decent enough price. His form is decent, he comes here after a break, and races prominently. If he stays I think he will go very close. On all evidence so far he looks like he should relish the trip. Either way he is a horse to keep onside moving forward.
Algernon Pazham…since I first put up this post (7pm) it would appear, much like Wayward Prince last week, that I have been ‘price wised’. Tom Segal has put up this horse and the 25s has long gone. 16s is still ok. I dont read the Racing Post very often so it will be interesting to see why he fancies this horse. In essence, given that unexposed types have a decent record in this, I thought 25s was too big, for a horse that falls into the ‘could be anything category’ That includes ‘could not be good enough’! His jumping is a concern but if this prominent racer can get into a good rhythm on the front end I fancy him to go well. He is young, unexposed and the trainer has won this race before. I would like to think they rate his ability given they are pitching him in here. He gets a very low weight and is the most interesting outsider for me. Not much more to say. I considered just making his a 0.5 win bet, as if he makes mistakes, he wont be in the top 5. But, with a clear round I think he will place. 25s was worth a play for me.
Vics Canvas is an unexposed 12 year old! He stays very well and I will overlook his early error last time. Given stamina isnt an issue, and Ruby Walsh rides, and the fact he could still be open to some improvement on past performances I thought 14s was worth small play as well. His two runs, before the fall, were very good. A repeat of those will see him run a good race.
The rest..
There wasn’t anything that ran at Aintree that grabbed me. All of them, one way or another, were targeted to peak at the Festival and they all had hard races. I will be the first to cheer if any of them can get over those runs and go close here. It would be some performance. My heart wanted to stick with Royale Knight given I backed him in the National but he ran a hard race there. Surely he isnt over that run, and nor is Rocky Creek?? I am not sure The Package has the stamina for this, and he failed in the race in 2010. Le Reve deserves his place near the top of the market but I am concerned by the break and stamina is an unknown. He loves the track and if he stays should be thereabouts, although he could have gone up too much in the weights now. I cant get a grip on how good Paint The Clouds is. This prolific hunter chase winner could go well but i wanted to stick with the proven rules form. This is a completely different test to anything he has faced before. If the real Bobs Worth turns up, in Gold Cup Winning form, he picks up this field and carries them on his back to victory! However, he doesnt look himself and I cant justify backing him in his current form. Just A Par is too much of a character for me. The rest I dont think are good enough, or have stamina or form questions.
I am off to Sandown tomorrow and while I haven’t had time to look at anything in much depth (i will rely on the racecard, some Timeform stars, and my Paddock watching 🙂 ) I hope that Gods Own can win. I backed him at Aintree and he got an indifferent ride. This track will suit more and I dare say I wont be able to resist trying to recoup my losses on him (which are more than what they should have been!!) The same can be said for Generous Ransom, who lost for me at Cheltenham. Maybe he can get me back some losses as well. I may well change my mind come the off but I am sure they will carry some of my money.
Profile Horses
1. Prince of Johanne – 2.20 Haydock
My notes… His record in handicaps on Gd-Firm, rated less than OR100 is… 1,,1,5,7,2,6,3,6,1,1,1,2,1,13,1,5 – last win 2013, 5th in 2014. Back down to winning mark, needs Gd-Firm ground.
He gets his conditions tomorrow in the 2.20. He has won after a break and for this jockey. He will carry some EW money of mine.
2.Border Bandit – 2.50 Ripon
My notes… record at 8f or 8.5f, no worse than gd-soft,rated OR80 or less, 4,1,7,2,2,1,1,3,1,6,1,1
Now he is still rated a couple of pounds above OR80. He is also yet to win above class 4. This is a class 3. However, he is 3 from 4 over 8f at Ripon. I think I will be keeping a watching brief, maybe a small 1/4 point bet, but he is one to note moving forward in those conditions.
3. Fast Shot – 3.25 Ripon
My notes… 6f,class 2 <20k to winner, Arpril-July, 8-15 days: 1,1,1,3,1,2,1,1. 16 runs after July, only 4 places.
The one concern is his handicap mark. His highest winning mark has effectively been OR86. He is off OR89 here. He is 12/1. Is that enough to overlook the 3lb hindrance. Possibly. Another small EW bet maybe.
4. Sheilas Wish – 4.25 Limerick
My notes… All 4 wins for CT Keane. 4/8, 1m3.5- 1m4f,Aug/sept.. 2,1,1,3,1,1,9,4,3,12.
This horse normally peaks later in the year. On the flip side this jockey, under which all her wins have come, gets the leg up for the first time since October 2013. She is 0/11, 3 places before August. But, the jockey booking catches the eye. I may have to have a small win bet just to find out 🙂
5. True Pleasure 8pm Doncaster
My Notes… All wins so far Class 4 or under, 1-11 runners.. 1,1,3,1,4,1,1,2,6,………..1,1
Those final two wins have been this season and I have been on both of them (apologies for not posting!). He won at 12/1 backed into 13/2 and 9/4. He is going for the hatrick. He could well be too high in the handicap now and may find one or two too good. His odds will be short as well. More for interest to watch moving forwards, but it will be interesting if he can go in again.
I will share more on Horse Profiling in the next couple of weeks. I have about 200 saved up that I have just about edited into a format worth sharing. Some of you may find this approach interesting. I think it is very powerful for flat handicappers in particular. Each horse is a bit like a mini system. You are never truly sure when they will go in and just have to trust that their winning pattern will be repeated at some point. (obviously the market can be a good guide, although the odd decent priced winner goes in) True Pleasure (+14 points) and Club Land (+ 4 points – also runs tomorrow but is in a class and rating he has never won from, although way he won last time maybe he can defy those odds) have been winners so far this season for those I have pulled together. Meandmyshadow was a close 10/1 second today, another ‘qualifier’ and a couple of decent priced placed horses, as well as a few clunkers, that will go in at some point, fingers crossed.
Anyway, happy punting and enjoy your day,
Josh
One Response
Hi Josh
I hope you were able to watch the Sandown introduction of ‘Jack Hobbs’..a bit special !!
I think Mr Mole will want to make a bigger impact than on his last outing….
Enjoy Sandown..and Good Luck