Pace Wins The Race: Selection 20/02/15

Moving on and a long distance handicap chase to get stuck into…

16.10 Warwick

Loughalder 11/2 1 point win… I backed him at 7/1 10 minutes ago (18.00) as that was a silly price. There is just about enough left in it for now and he may be bigger come the morning when there is more liquidity.

This horse bolted up in this race last year and then bolted up again over the same Course and Distance a few weeks later. He won the latter of those two races off 108 and then shot up to 122. 4 runs later and he is back down to 114. Given how he has won here previously that mark is well within range. He is a prominent racer who can lead or track the pace. He likes the track, likes the ground and has proven stamina. I would be slightly concerned about his recent form but it looks fine if you have the view that this has been the season’s target so far. I would hope that he is spot on for this. Of course there is a chance he isn’t, but given the number of questions over the opposition, i thought 7s was worth the bet. 11/2 is still just about fine. I wouldnt be shocked if he went off favourite.

Carli King has yet to prove his class but does stay. He won a weak c4 marathon chase and is 0/5 left handed. Having won off 109 he is now on 122.

Ballypatrick is interesting as he was a decent third in last year’s Eider chase. However he is 1/15 in chases and comes here off a 96 day break. He isnt in the greatest of form and although bits and pieces of placed form would give him a very sound chance he isnt one I want to trust. He will stay though.

Safran De Cotte is another who falls into the disappointing category. He can be a sloppy jumper and has yet to prove he really stays this far. He is 0/4 at the track and has yet to win outside of Novice company. I would want a bit bigger than the 3s available given doubts over his current form and ability to win.

Quilinton is an admirable old sod who has been running ok. He stayed well last time at Bangor and a repeat performance would see him be competitive here. However he is 11 now and doesnt win very often, being only 3/27 in chases. This step back up in class could catch him out and his best form is on better ground. I am happy to leave him but hope he puts in a good show. Its always nice to see the old boys run well.

Union Jack D’ycy is just too inconsistent at the moment and does hit the odd fence very hard. He has his stamina to prove and is 0/9 in class 3 to date. His only recent win was in a poor quality slog at Towcester. Not today, although he does have course form and the stable is starting to come back to life after a quiet few weeks.

Orange Nassau is 0/8 on soft or heavy and looks to prefer it firmer. The official going is notoriously questionable but it is apparently soft!  He also has his stamina to prove and has yet to prove his class. He is 0/5 with a rating above 121 so far.

So all in all a solid bet I think. If he has been aimed at this (which would explain the poor runs this season) he has a very very good chance of seeing these all off. A couple of them have the ability to storm this is running their best races but the majority have plenty of questions to answer and I am content with the selection.

Good Luck


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Waricks been called off today 🙁 Two i’m backing today are mollys a diva and dawson city both are out of midnight legend and should be interesting to see how they run?

    1. Yes rather annoying but oh well! Yes I need to dive into midnight legend, a few decent angles with that sire. Good luck

  2. I’ve been following the midnight legend system from on course profits magazine for the last two months, so it will be very interesting to see what you come up with and how they compare josh 🙂

    1. Ah yes, I have signed up to that and read it from time to time, i have to admit i missed that…i will dive back in to it and find it!

      1. Superb James well done…i will get looking at that system next week! Certainly the Milan one I have been looking at has been doing well so that should make an interesting post with any luck.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *