Pace Wins The Race: The Future…

Well today was abysmal…and so bad it is time for reflection. 

After today the Pace Wins The Race experiment is now 8/48…+ 5.83 points. That is just not good enough. It isn’t anything to do with using Pace as a way in, but more my use of it on this blog and the races I have been playing in. My decision making needs to improve.  

It is time for me to tweak my approach for the remainder of the main national hunt season. 

I know my strengths and as I have said before that’s in Handicap/Graded chases, normally class 3 and above. That is where the majority of my profit comes from during the jumps season and it’s about time that’s the main focus of this approach. 

Looking back through my ‘Pace’ records 50% of all winners so far have come from Handicap Chases. If I remove the handful of bets in poor quality Novice Handicap Chases (which I will avoid form now on) the stats are 4/16 or so. That is solid enough. 

Poor quality hurdle races will also be consigned to the dustbin. I will rarely play in hurdles unless something is very compelling and most likely class 3 or above. I will rarely dip into the All-Weather, again unless something compelling crops up. It isn’t an area that has ever provided me with decent profits. I will highlight horses if something stands out. 

This will mean much less activity but it will be worth it. As I have said before I cant wait to get stuck into the sprint handicaps on the Turf. Indeed had I had pace maps today and was confident of the form, Caspian Prince would have been a stand out at 12s over at Meydan. I have to admit I threw £5 at him but that was more to do with knowing he would bolt from the gates and that I had won a bit on him last year. (i didn’t read the form or know if he was the lone front runner)…anyway, I hope the pace approach with the flat is worth waiting for. As I got used to the pace maps during the latter half of 2014 flat season it was very profitable. 

So. Time to reflect and to buck up my ideas. I back every selection £20 on the nose and I haven’t enjoyed seeing my £560 reduce to £100 odd. 

February has been a poor month for me personally as well. I am just about clinging onto a profit for the month, having averaged 50 points a month since the start of September. It was about time i suppose! 

Anyway, with that said, there will be a confident selection tomorrow… 

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

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  • Josh,

    Thank you for being so candid; it is a great quality.
    I also have been doing the same thing as even when things are going well, a review must be done as we all operate under conditions of uncertainty. However, it is well, I too am largely a handicap betting man, but use some statistical techniques (sort of trying to think like a handicapper). It pays dividends, though when the intended outcome does not materialise for a long while, then doubt and various other emotional judgments obscure what is essentially a solid system for making choices.

    As always, with a review, then the probability of greater success increases.

    Many thanks,
    Canaan

    Canaan 3 years ago Reply


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