Well another ‘winner’ today as Debt To Society did everything I thought he wouldn’t do and still won! When you put up a font runner it is always a bit confusing when they are held up but the jockey knew what he was doing. As noted he used to be held up but had recently been booted out the front over hurdles and I thought they would continue with these tactics. Anyway, form analysis plays a vital role in these selections, with Pace being the ‘way-in’ and I thought he had a decent chance on paper that had been underestimated by the market. As it turns out he was backed from 6/1 into 4/1.
Now as it transpired the race turned into a farce as it was Void following a steward’s inquiry. It turns out that a ‘void race’ flag was waved instead of a ‘bypass obstacle’ flag but everyone carried on as normal.
According to the Racing Post this evening ‘Bookmakers Ladbrokes, bet365, BetVictor, Betfair, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Coral, Betfred, William Hill and Sky Bet are paying out winning bets for the race and voiding all losing bets’. I know that SkyBet paid out on my winning bet.
Anyway, I will be counting it as a ‘winner’. Now onto tomorrow…
Whiskey Ridge – 1 point win 13/2 -7/1 (I have taken 7s with B365)
In truth I was struggling to find a selection for tomorrow and I think I’m taking a slight risk with this one, however his current odds are too big. The selection is 2 from 3 over the course and distance, has won on heavy (so soft should be fine), in the class and has bounced back from a previous PU before. Usually he is ridden from the front and I can only think that he wasn’t ready on his seasonal appearance as he was held up and faded badly. Given he is returning quite quickly there was clearly nothing too wrong with him. I think his course form is a real bonus and he should be in there fighting. The main concern, other than the favourite, would be the form of the stable. Sue Smith is a bit cold at the moment with no wins in the last 24 runners and only 1 from the last 62. While concerning things will turn around at some point and at least we are getting a good price.
Previous followers will recognise the favourite as he beat a ‘Pace Wins The Race’ selection last time out at Chepstow. He deserves to be a short price and will probably win. Racing is not about picking winners, it is about finding horses that you think are a bigger price than they should be – Whiskey Ridge price is too big given his chance in my opinion even though he could struggle against Smiles For Miles. However, there are a couple of possible chinks in his armour. His win last time out was his first run in Blinkers. It is possible that they do not work again. Also he put in the odd poor jump. Now he won as he pleased last time, in what I think on reflection was a poor race, so we will see how he goes here. It is possible that he and Whisky Ridge take each other on up front and dent both their chances, but there is only one way to find out. You could make a case for backing WR each way but I think that would be a bit cowardly on this occasion!
All in all, in a day where no real front runners stand out I will chance Whisky Ridge to make it 4 from 7!
Running total: 3/6 = +13 points