When looking at micro systems and angles, especially those that are trainer based, I like to keep things simple. My usual starting point for looking at a trainer is to look at their overall record in handicaps since the start of 2010, usually with horses priced 14/1 or shorter. From there I can then dig down.
Every now and then you do not need to do too much more digging. You find a trainer that you can blindly back in handicaps and make handsome profits. Today I have such a trainer for you.
I have been tracking her for some time and she is operating 61% above market expectations. Her handicappers are consistently sent off at bigger odds than they should be, especially when they are relatively fit.
The trainer in question is Sue Gardner.
The rules for this micro system are as follows:-
- National Hunt Racing
- Handicap
- 14/1 or under
- Horse days since run: Between 1 and 120
And that’s it. A very straightforward micro system but very effective as you can see below…
Results (2010-)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 184 | 47 | 25.54 | 124.03 | 91 | 49.46 | 67.41 | 169.11 | 91.91 | 52.17 | 55.21 | 1.61 |
| 2014 | 34 | 8 | 23.53 | 19.83 | 13 | 38.24 | 58.32 | 27.3 | 80.31 | 41.18 | 2.4 | 1.67 |
| 2013 | 51 | 9 | 17.65 | 18.75 | 25 | 49.02 | 36.76 | 30.35 | 59.51 | 50.98 | 17 | 1.18 |
| 2012 | 57 | 17 | 29.82 | 34.2 | 32 | 56.14 | 60 | 45.31 | 79.49 | 59.65 | 18.35 | 1.66 |
| 2011 | 26 | 10 | 38.46 | 47.25 | 16 | 61.54 | 181.73 | 60.4 | 232.3 | 65.38 | 21.57 | 2.43 |
| 2010 | 16 | 3 | 18.75 | 4 | 5 | 31.25 | 25 | 5.74 | 35.9 | 31.25 | -4.11 | 1.28 |
47 winners from 184 runners is very respectable and so is the win and place strike rate. Nearly 170 points at Betfair Starting Price in 5 years is nothing short of spectacular for such a simple approach. Without doubt Sue Gardner’s handicappers, when returning within 120 days, are to be kept onside.
In previous posts/guides that have an odds cap I have made the mistake of not showing the results for those horses priced above the cap. As such the results for horses priced over 14/1 are as follows…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Plc(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E |
| 70 | 0 | 0 | -70 | 2 | 2.86 | -100 | -70 | -100 | 2 | 2.86 | -53.88 | 0 |
So all in all, I wouldn’t really bother with the bigger priced horses, but it is up to you 🙂
That is it for this post. I have been and will continue to follow Sue Gardner’s handicappers systematically. As always you are free to do with this information what you please.
Until the next time,
Josh
3 Responses
hi paul, re the sue gardner system, will these selections be added to the bonus selections , regards BOB.
Hi Bob, yes the Sue Gardner selections will be added to OTT members area, in the usual Bonus selections place. I will put together a proper mini guide but i think it is solid enough to go in. Josh
Hi josh thanks for the S Gardner stats, perhaps the stats I use below could be another angle with this trainer
SUSAN GARDNER IS A SMALL TRAINER WORTH FOLLOWING
With the following criteria
A trainer who has done well in the past couple of years is Susan Gardner.
She does okay with Lucy riding for her.
But it’s when she has other claiming jockeys riding that she excels.
With a jockey (Not Lucy Gardner ) who is claiming an allowance
Racing over more than 2m 2fs
SP less than 14/1
Running again within 52 days
RESULTS SINCE 2011
18 Won from 47 runners (Strike Rate 38.3%) LSP £75.5 ROI +160.6%.
Could you run it through your system builder to see if the facts stack up