Well after the highs of Cheltenham, the most competitive racing of the year where hard luck stories and unfathomable results are the order of the day, it is back to the bread and butter of week day racing. We may not be betting on the best horses in training but a winner is a winner…
before looking at a race tomorrow I will reflect on Cheltenham briefly. Personally it was my most successful festival to date (all festivals, aintree, royal ascot etc) and on my final reckoning those selections posted on the blog made about 45 points profit. 30 of those were won by Very Wood who caused somewhat of a surprise by storming up the hill in front. I would be lying if i thought he would win but I thought he would appreciate the trip and a strongly run race, having clearly been outpaced in previous races, the last of which was 3 lengths back behind the fav. 50/1 was too big and I am glad a few of you followed me in.
I have learnt a few lessons from this festival (always trying to learn something from every bet, win or lose) one of which is to look at in-meeting patterns. The most obvious here was the success of high weights in the handicaps which could have been down to the ground, or the brilliance of the handicapper. Either way lots of historical weight trends were consistently broken in the handicaps and, in hindsight, from the very first handicap on the tuesday it was clear that this could happen- it should have been something I looked at, rather than dismissing high weighted horses out of hand.
I should make a final comment on the jockeys and the horses. This is a dangerous sport, one where jockeys are followed by an ambulance and there were a few bone crunching falls with a number of jocks ending up in hospital. I wish them all a speedy recovery. There were also a handful of deaths to horses and the likes of Our Conor and Raya Star will live long in the memory. This is an unforgiving sport at times but it should be remembered that when alive, these animals are looked after to the highest standards, and the majority have long and enjoyable lives, many living into their 20s. Everything that is possible is done to make their lives as enjoyable as possible and the majority love their job -they certainly let you know when they no longer fancy the game.
I am hoping my form continues into the Aintree festival (my personal favorite as it is only 20 mins up the road!) as it had been some ride since Christmas.
anyway, onto tomorrow,
4.10 Exeter
Goring One 11/1 (Ladbrookes) 1pt EW
Firstly i should say I tweeted a loser today. That’s the Deal ran ok to finish in 3rd (first 2 places paid) at 14/1, backed into 6/1. He is somewhat unpredictable but am sure he will pop up somewhere during the next few months as he likes good ground and he will find his level. I also tipped Ballyoliver yesterday on twitter (along with Our Island who came second at 3/1) who won well at 9/1!
Right – this race is quite tricky and in truth one of those very competitive affairs where you can throw a blanket over quite a few. However, I have gone with this fella as the odds are generous and he is guaranteed (unlike a few of the others) to run his race, to try and want to win. he stays, on the whole he jumps well, he likes the ground and this is his class ceiling – class 3 races worth less than 10k. He also prefers going right handed, returning to the track within 10 days is no problem, and we know he is race fit. He has ran some very respectable efforts this year and should be bang on the premises. I would hope he is second or 3rd at worst. My slight concern is that he has never ran here before, and I am not sure if an undulating track will suit -however, 11/1 allows us to take that chance. There are a few monkeys in this field, which you can tell from the number that have some sort of headgear on. While a few have the form/profile to win, a battling effort is not guaranteed. A few of these have clearly been kept back for the better ground and as such we have to judge whether they are fit. Aimigayle usually needs the run, and so does handy andy. I fear the hobbs pair but Imperial Circus is 1 from 9 and while Woodford County is unexposed, he needs to prove his liking for good. That was the case for one of our bets during the festival, O’Faolins Boy, but we got 16/1 about him whereas this horse is 11/2, no thanks. Qianshan Leader is interesting but has not won in over 3 years and will need to show something before I back him. All in all I think Goring One is the best bet in quite an open race. We shall see, good luck.
