[Free Post] Royal Ascot Day 1 (complete)

Royal Ascot Day 1

I’ve decided to share most of my Royal Ascot content for free. It will mainly consist of the daily qualifiers against my trainer/jockeys stats post (above) and any trends /shortlist/trainer pointers for the handicaps. I don’t really ‘tip’ on the Flat as such but flag a fair few winners and there may follow a daily preview for the handicaps and any other views that may be of interest.

DAY 1

Trainer / Jockey Qualifiers

Trainers, Jockeys and ‘Handicap’ pointers…

2.30 – Lights On (SMS, 14/1<) 40/1

3.05 – Age Of Kings (FD) 6/1

3.05 – Scholarship (CC) 22/1

3.40 – Tis Marvellous (CC) 50/1

4.20 – Mighty Ulysses (FD) 12/1

5.00 – Who Dares Wins (AK) 40/1

5.35 – Harovian (JG, FD) 10/1

5.35 – Regal Reality (SMS) 8/1

6.10 – Bandinelli (WB) 12/1

Trainer/Jockey Combos

5.00 -Bring On The Night 4/1

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Handicaps Preview

Stats, Trends & Trainers

5.00 : Ascot Stakes

14/268, 57p

14/14 had won over 2m or further previously (yet to win over 2m+ : 0/69, 9p)

14/14 had 13+ career runs (12< : 0/84, 17p)

14/14 had 4+ runs in handicaps (0-3: 0/48, 8p)

14/14 had 3+ career wins (0-2: 0/90, 13p)

13/14 had 2+ wins in handicaps (0-1: 1/115, 19p)

13/14 had run at listed level of above (had now: 1/110, 19p)

13/14 had won at C3 level or above (C4 or below: 1/82, 12p)

Trainers

  • W Mullins: 4/18, 9p
  • I Williams: 2/12, 3p
  • X1: Jonjo O’Neill, A King, J P Fahey, N Henderson, Suzy Smith, C Byrnes, D Pipe, J Chapple-Hyam

Applying the trends…

A win over 2m+ previously, 13+ career runs and 3+ career wins would point to 14/14 (14/142, 36p) and IF upholding would point to a longlist of 11…

Pied Piper, Arcadian Sunrise, Reshoun, Proschema, Rock Eagle, Who Dares Wins, Lydford, Just Hubert, Moon King, Themaxwecan, Scaramanga

All eleven also had 4+ runs in handicaps.

Applying the other 13/14 stats would point to a list of eight…

Arcadian Sunrise, Reshoun, Proschema, Rock Eagle, Who Dares Wins, Just Hubert, Themaxwecan, Scaramanga

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Bring On The Night
  • Reshoun
  • Who Dares Wins

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Race Preview

The Ascot Stakes

Pied Piper – 7/1 (9.00 betfair) 6th

Reshoun – 12/1 (17.5 betfair) 5th

My interest pins have landed on these two, using my trends above as a guide/starting point.

Pied Piper – he’s just an unknown quantity over this trip in general, let alone on the flat. He was smart enough when with John Gosden, progressive, and was shaping as if he’d relish further, esp his effort at Yarmouth. His form took off over hurdles for Gordon Elliot and he hasn’t done much wrong in his jumps career to date. A touch of class. He may relish this 20f, he may not stay, that’s the risk. If he does stay I suspect he’s got a fair bit in hand and in Jamie Spencer they’ve booked the perfect jockey to get the best out of him over this sort of trip. If he can’t settle him and stalk his way through and help him stay, not many others will. I found it interesting that he appears to have jumped off Arcadian Sunrise, unless his connections wanted to use a 5lb claimer. (and a very good one at that). 4YOs used to do just fine in this race, although not in recent years, but he has enough experience and the ground will ensure this isn’t the slog it sometimes can be if softer. He’s a good mover, travels strongly, which you generally need around here, and he’s exciting. The price just allows an interest I think. Gordon Elliot is in fine form also and is 2/7,3p with all his runners at this meeting. He knows what’s required.

Reshoun – he won this last year, front two clear, and they’ve got him back here off the same mark, which may well have been a plan this season. Last time out he shaped as if coming back into form, over shorter, hands and heels, not really asked for everything. He stayed on pleasingly there and that sets him up for a repeat bid. I don’t think any horse has won this more than once in recent history but I don’t know how many have tried and on paper I can’t see a reason why he won’t run another big race here, in conditions that look ideal. His win last year was his only try over this trip to date and while 8, there could be more to come over this sort of distance on the flat. He does have a wide draw which isn’t ideal but at these odds I’ll just have to trust Kingscote to get it right. He will have a dilemma, as he may want to get him forward and across, risking getting caught very wide and if he can’t get in, that could be game over. Or he has to take his medicine and drag him back and behind, hoping they go too fast up front/come back to him. The first 3f could well decide his race. In any case, we know he stays and this must have been the plan. Provided he doesn’t get trapped wide, I didn’t think he’d be out the 5 here if running his race. Last year’s renewal has worked out ok and his best form has a solid look to it over these staying trips.

Bring On The Night has to be a main danger but hard to say he’s overpriced, the bookies running scared of the Mullins/Moore combo in this race. Maybe I should be too but there are plenty of questions for him to answer, for all I won’t fall off my chair in shock if he comes there swinging. Mullins knows what’s required and he’s no doubt got stacks in hand, just a question of when he shows it. But still, he has to prove it on fast ground and he has to prove he stays. Arcadian Sunrise may be solid but does have to prove his stamina also and he was buzzy enough on his Chester return – maybe it was just freshness on his first start but he will need to drop his head here if he’s to get home. He has some solid form to his name though and could well relish it. He could be bang there.

I suppose they were the four I mainly focussed on, three of them heading the market so nothing too original there. I may well haven’t mentioned the winner of course.

I did look at Make My Day and Golden Flame for a time but concluded they wouldn’t be good enough. I could be very wrong there and they’re both a big price.

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Of the other races….

Well simply focussing on the numerous stats ‘qualifiers’ listed above, I may have TV change EW nibbles on…

3.05 – Scholarship – 22/1 EW UP – a bit of a guessers race really (some of these will have taken massive strides forward at home since their last starts) but Cox knows what’s needed here in this sort of race and his Royal winners fly in at prices. He may not be good enough, connections won’t really know, but he must have taken a big step forward from Haydock for them to be running him here. One where you trust those trainer stats over time.

5.35 – Regal Reality – 8/1 EW 4th – as you would with Sir Michael, whose string are in fine form. This horse very nearly won this race a couple of years ago on his first start of the season, on ground not as quick (and he appears to relish fast ground). He had to make his challenge wide around the bend that year. Last year they pitched him into a G1 here on his return, out of his depth. He’s a multiple Group 3 winner and no doubt has the class for this listed contest and it may have been ‘the’ main plan, including coming here fresh no doubt. Ryan gets the leg up and I think he’s got a big run in him here, hopefully mixing it in the places and then we shall see…

6.10 – Bandinelli – 12/1 EW UP- probably more risky as I’m not sure what happened with him at Haydock after a short break, running no sort of race at all. Maybe he’s just out of form. If all four horses i’ve mentioned are still running at this point, my TV change budget will no doubt have taken a hammering and it may not be getting much better. Still, he looked ultra progressive before his last start, stays further which is no bad thing around here, esp if some pace on, and they put 1st blinkers on him – they may work, they may not. He’s a likeable attitude when in a scrap, head down, and IF running his race I thought would be in the mix. Aidan’s Cleveland may well be very smart and much better than a handicapper but he drops in trip and races on proper fast ground for the first time, so some questions to answer – which he may do emphatically.

This week is about having a bit of fun for me, I find it rather hard to be overly bullish on much, and there are no 3m+ chases for me to ponder! Still, with any luck I can flag a winner or two or you can use the stats/trends to land on your own winners, which are always the sweetest.

GL with any bets, and if you’ve any strong fancies today, do shout down below!

Best of luck,

Josh

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2 Responses

  1. 4.20 Ascot 11 My Prospero (IRE) Marquand, Tom Haggas, W J = i think Tom will have a great meet here this week 😉
    4.20 Ascot 4 Berkshire Shadow Doyle, James Balding, A M = really like this one e/w trainer / jock / draw e/w
    5.00 Ascot 6 Reshoun (FR) Kingscote, Richard Williams, Ian = Had a couple of runs to get fit for another winning tilt ! e/w
    5.35 Ascot 9 Juan Elcano Atzeni, Andrea Ryan, K A = has ascot form …… just hoping he swoops late for best result 🙂

    lovely 🙂

  2. MAX EW BET

    17.00 PROSCHEMA classy on the flat as a younger horse, now a high class staying hurdler, mark of 100 looks lenient

    with 7 places at Sky I have smashed this one.

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