Who’s Fit & Who’s Fat: Trainer Pointers

Trainers who do well in Oct & Nov with horses making seasonal return

In this post I’ve highlighted a few trainers who do well with horses making their seasonal return during the months of October and November. This means the horse hasn’t run since the 1st May 2021. Knowing if a horse is fit is one of the challenges to finding winners and making money at this time of year. One edge is to be track side and of course it’s a big positive if a horse has previously won on seasonal return. Many trainers can get a horse fit at home but working out who’s fit and who’s fat while sat at home is a challenge. It’s often best not to guess in this game, if possible. Of course we could all sit out the early weeks of October/November, but where’s the fun in that?

Below you can find 10 trainer ‘micro angles’ / ‘starting points’ which may help.

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The starter set of data, applicable to all :-

  • UK National Hunt
  • October & November
  • Horse had 0 runs this season (1st May >) (includes horses having first career start)
  • Any odds
  • 2013 > (8 full seasons)

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The first set looks at those trainers who may target certain tracks, the second who’ve done well in certain race types.

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Trainers / Tracks

Starter set above, all runners…

A Honeyball/ Fontwell: 27 bets / 11 wins / 19p / 41% sr/ +19 SP / +24 BFSP / BFAE 1.59

R Curtis/Ffos Las: 35 bets / 11 wins / 21p / 31% sr / +13 SP / +19 BFSP / BFAE 1.36

N Twiston-Davies/Chepstow: 36 bets / 10 wins / 18p / 28% sr / +31 SP / +28 BFSP / BFAE 2.22

V Williams/Ascot: 33 bets / 8 wins / 12p / 24% sr / +36 SP / +47 BFSP / BFAE 2.14

N Henderson/Aintree: 24 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 33% sr / +22 SP / +26 BFSP / BFAE 1.64  

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Trainers/Race Type

V Williams/Handicap Chase (all)/Age 4-8: 140 bets / 34 wins / 59p / 24% sr / +125 SP / +170 BFSP / BFAE 1.83

H Fry/NH Flat & Handicap Hurdles: 105 bets / 30 wins / 53p / 29% sr / +59 SP / +80 BFSP / BFAE 1.56

F O’Brien/NH Flat: 57 bets / 17 wins / 25p / 30% sr / +36 SP / +53 BFSP / BFAE 1.81

A Honeyball/Handicap Chase (all): 34 bets / 12 wins / 13p / 35% sr / +58 SP / +77 BFSP / BFAE 2.47

D Skelton/Novice Chase: 23 bets / 10 wins / 14p / 43% sr / +20 SP / +25 BFSP / BFAE 1.44

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Hopefully those stats may point you to a few winners in the coming weeks.

If you missed my previous free post, you can read it below…

Happy Punting,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Are the Venetia micros dependent on the ground softening up in those months?

    Sometimes too much is made of her horses needing soft ground I think?

    We have had dry spells in those months before.

    1. oh no, not really for me – well, her record on Good to Soft is fine, and in certain circs as good as on Soft etc – too much is made of them being ‘soft ground sloggers’ – I think in general, given the types she buys from france and how she trains them (including plenty of turn out in heavy ground fields where they just run around etc) means they handle it better than most. If they run, it means she’s deemed the ground suitable, she doesn’t run them with ‘good’ in going if they won’t handle it etc.

      Where any lack of rain is a question obviously is in the training, and especially any grass gallops which is where proper work is done, esp schooling. You can do plenty on AW and many do, but grass work usually puts them spot on etc. If it’s been dry, that affects the ability to train, which can mean it just takes longer for the horses to get fit/be ready to run – that could mean a quiet October even into November, and of course it could mean she goes ‘sod it, i just need to run them’ and some turn up to the races needing the run, where in most years in Oct/nov her chasers turn up fit enough to win.

      Josh

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