Gary Moore Micro Angle

A Gary Moore Micro?

 

Intro

There’s been a bit of ‘Gary Moore’ chat in the comments in recent weeks and whether or not there are any angles or ‘ways in’ in which to profit from his runners. In this post I’ve just stuck with his jumps runners, which is where my research attention has now turned. I did have a flick through his flat runners but nothing leapt off the page but maybe i’ll have another look before next Flat season.

The jumps angle that follows is fairly simple, focusing on those horses who’ve had 2 runs in the current season. This was the only ‘systematic’ angle I could find of note really but it appears to hint at a deliberate training method-  taking 2 runs to get a horse fit /work them out / identify ideal conditions/prep for a target/  or get the mark back down to within winning range. The win % is solid as is the place %, which gives some confidence moving forwards that it’s a pattern of behaviour that may be repeated. The following 38 winners are from 35 different horses, which is always a positive and gives more weight to the idea that there may be method behind the systematic madness… of course as with any trainer success can depend on new stock coming in and every yard can have a bad season due to illness or for example, too many badly handicapped horses.

Gary Moore Micro

  • National Hunt
  • Handicap Chase (standard/not ‘novice’) / Handicap Hurdles (all)
  • Horse Runs This Season: 2
  • Odds: 11/1< SP (bigger, 2/47,4p, +13 SP, +44 BFSP)

 

Odds… while there have been a couple of biggies to fly in, they’re hard to find and in general the market has been some sort of guide, those sent off 11/1< seemingly much more predictable, as you’d expect. Do note the ‘P/L (Plc)’ column above also, that detailing profits in the Betfair Place market.

Well beaten…Do not be put off by those well  beaten on their last start.. those that finished more than 10 lengths behind the winner (and plenty 30+)… 22/66, 38p, +84 BFSP.

Headgear… those wearing headgear do rather well also… 20/56, 33p, +84 BFSP

Tracks… As with any trainer there are a few tracks Gary likes to target – or certainly where he has a decent record. Plumpton and Fontwell are clearly favoured… the table below is the angle above broken down by all tracks…

 

And I think that’s it. I’ve always struggled to get a grip on ‘Team Moore’ but maybe this micro will shine a light on where we could focus. And unlike some of my micros, any qualifiers should be easy to find!

Happy Punting,

Josh

p.s don’t forget there’s plenty more stats posts of interests in the ‘Free Reports & Systems’ tab HERE>>> 

(including a look at Nigel Twiston-Davies, Kevin Stott, Emma Lavelle and many more)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Tasty ingredients here for a HRB recipe here josh .. thanks as always for all your investigational work ..unsurpassed young man 🙂
    brgds
    lgb

  2. Josh what’s your view about keeping bets to those courses where the yard has already had a winner in this scenario? That has given 38 winners from 104 bets and there appears something strategic about the tracks used.
    What time scale is represented in these stats?

    1. Hi Chris,

      Hmm, tricky – if taking a systematic approach I can see why you would – 0/24, 8 places at the others – the placed stats would make me think the odd one will be winning at some point, but I can see why you’d focus on those with wins – and if being subjective, I’d maybe put more weight on runners at some of those tracks/be more confident.

      Ah, yes I omitted that – from start of 2015 to date, as of yesterday. So, 5 years and 8 months near enough.

      Josh

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