Members Daily Post: 03/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(140 tips/19 wins/50 places (inc wins) /+61.6 points, advised/ +56.9 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.10 Salis – Scarlet Bear – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 3rd 16/1 , -1 , decent run

#2 – 3.40 Salis – Spring Of Love – 1 point win – 17/2 (WH) 8/1 (gen) UP, 20/1, -1, woeful, lost 3 legs on betfair.

that’s all for today, as of 08.04, write ups at bottom of post, don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page for new content inc any reader comments etc

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.35 Salis – Blackcurantspangle (14/1< guide) 9/2 UP

4.20 Hayd – Lady Scatterley (9/1<) H1 5/2 WON 5/2 > 16/5 

4.50 Salis – Luckys Dream (9/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

3.10 Salis – Scarlet Bear (20/1< guide) 16/1 3rd

3.20 Hayd – Sun Bear (any) H4 7/4 UP

Newcastle Sires (20/1<)

2.30  – Edna Tale 33/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd

2.30 – Supercali 40/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

Jim Crowley (any)

2.50 Hayd – Yafta 6/1 UP

3.50 Hayd – Coconut H1

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

3.35 Newc – Lord Torranaga 16/1 UP

4.45 Newc – Be Proud H1 5/2 UP

Straight Track Specialists

3.40 Salis – Spring Of Love (any, 5/1< best) 8/1 UP 20/1

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.35 Newc – Billy Roberts (2nd run) 25/1 UP

4.10 Newc – Serenading (3rd run) H2 2/1 WON 2/1 

4.45 Newc – Be Proud (1st run) H1 5/2 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

Gary Moore Research Post/Micro HERE>>>

Paul Ferguson’s ‘Jumpers To Follow’ comes out today, as per Wednesday’s email i’ve got a code that gets you £3 off (don’t spend it all at once, but every little helps!) As detailed in my latest email HERE>>> 

Results update… i’l get this up at some point on Thursday, for August/season to date. Trainer Profiles had another good month, as did Jim Crowley and my ‘losing tips’ (which have done well to BFSP) – not great for much else, including the ‘H’ horses but I’ll pull all that together asap.

*

Tips write ups…

Scarlet Bear – 16s just looked too big here. Maybe i’ll pay for taking on the top two but it is a 2YO fillies G3 and i’m not sure i’d want to be taking short prices in a race like this. This is Dascombe’s only runner on the card, when he also has 3 at Haydock. Kingscote has come down for the ride and that has to be some sort of sign they expect a bit run. They must like her, given the races she’s run in. That Ascot run in The Queen Mary was decent and that’s the best piece of form to date I think. UK runners are 8/37, 15p subsequently, and the winner has since won The Prix Morny.  She was a nose behind Happy Romance in that race (won two big sales races since – the owners first horse, lucky buggers, she’s won £177k this season having cost 25k, quite some training feat), outpaced from flag fall, staying on, and possibly on the wrong part of the track. That piece of form alone makes 11/4 vs 16/1 look odd. They then ran her in The Lowther at York 14 days ago where she ran ‘ok’ but nothing more. She did lose two shoes there and there’s a chance that’s a valid excuse and this is a slight drop in class, G2>G3. I thought she may appreciate this stiff 6f and she’s got Pornstar Martini on her inside to tow her into the race.

I just couldn’t help myself at the odds and didn’t know why she wasn’t half this price. I’ll probably find out soon enough.

The main dangers are the top two in the market and she’s best of the rest. Happy Romance does need to step up and has had a busy/tough old time of it in recent weeks – that may or may not catch up at some point. She’s also drawn wider which isn’t ideal, but not impossible. And she’s hasn’t done much wrong the last twice. Hannon thinks she could shape into 1000G class. This race will tell us plenty. Maybe she will just keep winning. She’s very likeable.

Time Scale may be the one they all have to beat. She’s got solid form and the proper soft LTO may have just dented her finishing effort, in a race which is working out well. Of course on official ratings, 102, on what they’ve achieved to date she’s the best in the race. Still, not sure i’d want to wade in at 11/4. But, it could well be between those two and I’m on the fence as to which one i’d favour of the pair.

Pace/position wise… Pornstar Martini may go forward, those drawn 1/2 can race prominently, as can mine. Richard may get her over and edge across at some point, 1 or 2 off the rail. Time Scale may not be far away on his outside and Sean Levey may have a dilemma although Hollie may tow the higher drawn horses along.

*

Spring Of Love… 

If the one above is a bit of a stab, this one is riskier I think, but at 8s of so, given connections/her profile, in a race that looks weak enough if you take the fav out, I thought she was worth chancing.

She’s Appleby’s only runner on the day, not that such a fact means anything, but the yard are flying, again. Well, he keeps a consistent 25% win SR generally but is 6/15, 8p with UK runners in the last 14 days. He’s probably had the odd one go well in France also. The filly makes handicap debut and he’s 12/44, 21p with those in the last couple of years, and he’s a 59% win/place strike rate over sprint trips. So, some solid foundations there.

The horse… well everything screams that they like her and that she’s surely better than a mark of 88 in time. She had one run as a 2YO last October in a Newmarket maiden, plenty of cut, 16 runners. She won that fairly well and went through her race strongly, cruising into it like a useful prospect, professional up the hill but with plenty more to learn. That was her done then, which may also be some indication of what they think of her. She returned in a Listed race 70 days ago, clipped heels early, was lit up and didn’t do much at all really. Off 70 days since and I suspect that’s why she’s this price. That clearly wasn’t her running and a chance she wasn’t happy on firmer ground. They drop her back to a stiff 6f and there’s a chance the faster tempo over this trip helps her settle – although from stall 1 I can’t think Buick will hold onto her – he may let her stride on up that rail. It could be she’s keen again but she’s obviously well bred and she could have a productive autumn, if she’s trained on of course. This could be a prep for another listed contest, I don’t know. But at this price i’ll pay to find out as she could have plenty in hand. Just a case of if/when she shows it.

The dangers… it doesn’t look the strongest of fillies handicaps with a fair bit of deadwood, to the eye.  I don’t think this is a great race. Maybe Chil Chil just bolts up again as it may be weaker than LTO, although I don’t think that was a strong race for the grade either. But she did it oh so easily. She’s been put up 9lb but raced off 85 there and achieved an RPR of 102. She could well just be getting better and is a 100+ filly in the making. But, I find it hard to be scared off by one horse. She is drawn wide which doesn’t help and has a fair actual weight to carry. But she should put up a bold show, if travelling like LTO. Hopefully she hits traffic or has to come around runners.

Theotherside – in theory she should get closer to Chil Chil on that run LTO, and maybe the weight swing/lower draw will help her do just that.

Those three were the most interesting in this by some way for me and i’d be mildly surprised if it doesn’t go to one of them.

I can leave Bimble – i’m not a great fan of the Henry Candy yard – well, they’re not having a great year – 9/150, 35p. 6% win SR. Tough. 0/12,3p in the last 14 days and this one’s had 80 days off. Unexposed though but 7/2 looked short enough at the time I looked.

So, fingers crossed. The market doesn’t really guide with Appleby’s yard with 16s<. I’d like to see her backed but provided she doesn’t drift alarmingly past 10s/12s, I won’t be that concerned.

There’s not loads of pace in this – Bungie Jump the only one who likes to go forward really. Buick has two on his outside in stalls 2/3 who can be prominent. He may decide he wants cover, or he just blasts out and tries to settle her/keep hold of her up the rail, which may help.

That’s all for today, best of luck with any bets as always,

Josh

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • No joy on Wednesday!!!

    Thursday picks:

    6.00 Southwell, Break The Rules – course and distance winner, 4 year old and so improvement still to come, won in this class. 2 points win.

    6.20 Chelmsford, Pitchers Point – Frankie’s sole ride, first run in handicaps, won well last time out, will go from the front. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 03/09/20 8:36 AM Reply


  • Does anyone else think the actual weather on the day can play a part in how particular horses perform? I’m not really referring to the state of the ground – more the actual weather when the race is being run. I’m thinking some horses don’t like strong wind, (particularly headwinds), others may not like heavy rain or thunderstorms. Maybe some poor runs can be explained by this rather than the state of the ground? I personally hate strong winds – they make me grumpy and I never used to give my best when playing sport in those conditions, (I was crap anyway, but especially crap in those conditions). I’m sure the horse population must also have it’s peculiarities when it comes to this?

    Matty 03/09/20 10:08 AM Reply


    • Yep , as per what Colin says below, you’d have to say yes.

      I’m not sure how useful that is punting wise of course, unless getting a specific trainer/jockey quote post race as an excuse etc – but there are so many reasons why a horse can under-perform on the day, esp more highly strung/immature flat horses. Like us, some may wake up and not be feeling it and I suspect certain extreme weather affects plenty.

      Strong winds are tricky – horsemen/women would say that, as flight animals, strong winds affect their hearing in a race, and if all they can hear is wind, those who are anxious types anyway, would suffer more.

      All of that is part of a puzzle that we will never have all the pieces for, but if you can’t explain a poor run LTO, but built into the price today, especially if the horse was in-form before hand – then an ‘off day’ for whatever reason can be the excuse. They’re not machines after all. But those reasons are why we will only every do so well and why we are sometimes left scratching our heads.

      It can take time with these youngsters for trainers to work them out also – especially rest patterns.

      I know Amy, and many others, send the yard shetland pony i the horsebox with some of the horses that live on their nerves/need company.

      The weather may have done for Really Super at Stratford – she got very worked up pre race in her box, sweating, agitated etc. That was one of hottest days of the year to date from memory. Maybe she just didn’t like the stables there, I don’t know. But her groom could tell something was us, and that’s led to her getting anxious, producing far too much lactic acid, and cramping up etc. Something environmental has affected her there, and obv something that was unpredictable – as obviously she’d have beaten them well if she was on form!! 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 03/09/20 11:03 AM Reply


  • Logic there Matty for horses are made up the same as humans and they may not wish to run for feeling off on the day, or a little pain which they cannot tell the trainer, who believes the horse is sound.
    The horse is a very intelligant animal and during my days of riding and involvement always talked to the horses, and strongly believe they responded far better to this.
    Walked to Forge Dam yesterday sat in the sun having a coffee, on the walk home the heavens opened and arrived home soaked, know which part of the day i prefered! horses do like the sun on their backs.
    Colin

    cleafe 03/09/20 10:26 AM Reply


    • YES …………… HORSES LIVES MATTER !!

      GEORGE B 03/09/20 12:27 PM Reply


  • A few i like today,
    Salisbury.
    1-35. Biotic 8-1 0.5 pt ew, poor run lto over 7f back to 8f here and ran well over 8f in penultimate start, ticks all the boxes and drawn 9/9 is not a bad thing danger could be Air Of York (small saver)
    3-10 . I do like Josh’s pick 3 solid runs in top company, but i’m having a go at a biggie Rhythm 50-1 0.25 pt ew, on paper Hannon’s 2nd string but showed great improvement lto when winning a C5 rpr for that run would put on a par with the likes of Dickiedooda hopefully will improve again and 50-1 4p looked big to me.
    3-40. I’m going with last years winner of this Belated Breath 16-1 0.5 pt ew, won this off 90 and gets in today off 85 obviously the price reflects current form but i thought worth a chance.
    hopefully back later with a couple more.

    martin whittle 03/09/20 10:47 AM Reply


    • a couple of fun bets to finish off the Salisbury card.
      4-15. Secret Potion 10-1 4p
      4-50. Sandyman 10-1

      martin whittle 03/09/20 11:38 AM Reply


      • thank god for the services i’m using as i can’t pick my nose at the moment, one which i think a few of us still use put up the 1st and 3rd in P2-55 got 11-1 on Ultra Pride first thing and another put up
        Sagrada Familia P3-25 11-2 early doors.

        martin whittle 03/09/20 3:54 PM Reply


        • While I don’t like too much ‘other services’ success chat, former promos are fine. SP2A I assume? Glad to hear they’re still going well. I keep in touch with then, but they don’t half make promotion difficult.

          Do you keep a record of your bets Martin? You do fire a lot of big priced darts so there will be big swings, that’s just the nature of the beast. You obviously like ‘action’ but a less is more is always an option for a bit.

          Josh

          Josh 03/09/20 4:03 PM Reply


  • Results update/ spreadsheet to end August.. here…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/category/results/

    Josh

    Josh 03/09/20 10:54 AM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ only one race and managed a place.
    yesterdays all weather had 4 winners and 8 places.
    my pick. still running………….

    todays c3+ video replay list
    NEWCASTLE AW
    15:00 run this way / possible ambition
    SALISBURY
    14:40 hasanaat / lady hayes / noon star ( no vid repalys for this race)
    15:10 dickiedooda / rhythm / pornstar martini / happy romance
    15:40 silver machine / bimble / chil chil
    HAYDOCK
    14:50 al rufaa / royal commando
    15:20 alpine mistral / sun bear
    15:50 without a fight / kasaman
    my picks
    DICKIEDOODA 9/1 EW // RHYTHM 66/1 EW. (3:10 salisbury) dickiedooda won a nice listed race last but one time out. last time out came up against miss amulet which was one of my picks winning the Lowther Stakes (group 2).
    so her form through winning and losing is solid enough and you have to respect anything Harrington sends over in this grade of race.
    rhythm is a big price and would seem to be hannons second choice having happy romance in the race. ran a nice race last time out and came off the pace so its not a pace horse for hannons other mount. im assuming she is here on merit and they think she has a chance even with his short price favourite. 66/1 worth a nibble to find out.
    SILVER MACHINE 20/1 E/W (3:40 Salisbury) sent over to France for a listed race which clearly didnt quite work out but won her two previous runs very nicely stepping up in class but connections clearly think she is better than what she has shown so far.

    these are just my thoughts and observations and as always good luck 🙂

    warren bottomley 03/09/20 12:34 PM Reply


  • 310 I thought Josh’s selection has a good chance but an even more outrageous price is Amor de mi Vida who will be really well suited to CD on breeding and it is only the defeat in France that has masked her potential. 25/1 with books but an exchange bet for me.
    415 Bluebell Time won a maiden in June, excuses in the interim, and this 0-65 should be ideal for another win.
    450 Lucky’s Dream is exceptional value too at 28/1; a progressive, prolific winner bred to be suited by easy turf

    Chris 03/09/20 12:47 PM Reply


  • chelmsford video replay list
    17:15 harrier hawk / watch me majd al arab
    17:50 pioneering / celtic artisan
    18:20 pitchers point / secret art / lady sansa
    18:50 alnaseem / swiss cheer / royal dynasty
    19:20 khaalis / bint australis /eaglesglen
    19:50 taqareer / greycoat / nature lover
    20:20 cowboy soldier / peggie sue / summit fever
    20:50 sefton warrior / grand canal / bird for life

    warren bottomley 03/09/20 4:16 PM Reply


Post A Reply