Micro Monday: Newcastle Sires

Newcastle All-Weather- Sires to Follow

Hello 

Newcastle All-Weather – Sires to Follow

I hope you had a great weekend. 

It’s a Monday (I think, who knows anymore), I decided to dive into Horse Race Base, do some research and send you the results… and thus, it’s ‘Micro Monday!’ 🙂 

YOU CAN READ MY ‘MICRO MONDAY’ REPORT HERE>>>

In this report I focus on horses who’ve never ran at Newcastle, who were well beaten LTO but who miraculously improve for a trip to Gosforth Park – is this down to their sire?  Take a look HERE>>>

These two micros will be added into the ‘Other Micro Angles’ section of my Daily Members Posts (free to view for a few months) which will return when racing resumes. I’ll post the qualifiers for you to use/ignore as you please.

As always, any questions, queries or comments are welcome. Post away.  

Happy Punting,

Josh 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

    1. Thanks Chris. Yep, well it’s important to mix it up a bit and i’ve done enough ‘static’ trainer research for the Flat for a few weeks I think. Excited/intrigued to see how these perform, and the Flat Turf ‘trainer/sire angles’ from a few weeks ago- hopefully the two may be a decent ‘bloodstock’ portfolio.

  1. Fascinating details Josh. Thanks for the info. Couple of points, first when the season starts will you be highighting the runners in what part of the website they could appear and two, do you have any info on whether, not only with this info, but your other stats that is better to bet on Betfair or with a bookmaker. If betfair is it betfair SP or taking a price? Gordon

    1. Hi Gordon,

      I’ll clarify the plan nearer racing as i’m still pondering – but in effect what were ‘daily members posts’ will continue, but just as free posts – so, in terms of colour coding when you click ‘home’ above, the ‘green’ posts, if that makes sense. They will just live on the home page etc. There’s not going to be any paid for blog posts/content for a while yet. If you click ‘home’ when you visit to make sure, you won’t miss a post, the newest post always up the top.

      The qualifiers from this report, and a few others that i’ll confirm at some point, will be within the new daily posts, in the ‘Other Micro Angles’ section…

      1. Tips
      2. Monthly Trainers
      3. Trainer Profiles: Flat 2020
      4. Other Micro Angles
      5. Horses to Follow
      6. Other/Updates

      Price – well, I don’t know the answer to that really – I think i’d always advise that if you can take a price/at Best Odds Guaranteed, to always do so – and if you can’t, then BFSP. I don’t know if BFSP is better than taking a morning price in these examples – however, in any research I do I try and ensure the BFSP numbers are decent, as is the A/E etc – the BFSP figures in that report above are solid and if they were repeated we’d be rather happy. Never that simple sadly though but we shall see.

      Josh

  2. Hi Josh, Hope all is well with you and those close given the current situation….Good to see info regarding Sire stats regarding Newcastle……..most appreciative that you posted this…so here is some general info which may be of use regarding the sires you mention: The Form Book for the 2020 Flat lists sires in rank according to progeny earnings for 2019:

    numero uno is Galileo which is interesting that it does not figure in your table but below is the listings as they relate to your named sires (NOT in relation to the Form Book rankings as these appear in brackets next to the sire) 1. Sea The Stars (2). 2. Pivotal (16). 3. Dutch Art (33). 4. Lope De Vega (10). 5. Dubawi (5). 6. Cape Cross (41). 7. Le Havre (unranked in Form Book ratings). 8. Fastnet Rock (unranked FB ratings). 9. Footstepsinthesand (26). 10.Sir Percy (unranked in FB ratings). 11. Frankel(4). 12. Camelot (11). 13. Elusive Quality (unranked in FB ratings). 14. Street Cry (unranked in FB ratings).
    15. Mayson (38). 16. Casamento (unranked in FB ratings). 17. Invincible Spirit (8). 18. Dark Angel (6).
    19. Kheleyf (not ranked in FB ratings). 20. Shamardal (3).

    The top Sires according according to FB are Sea The Stars, Shamardal, Frankel, Dubawi, Dark Angel, Invincible Spirit, Lope De Vega, Camelot, Pivotal…Not a bad list when your stats show they are good at Newcastle so they are worth looking out for.

    Another related angle I have looked at is the pedigree on the Dam side of the Sires and some pedigree back class in the bloodline…..The former is to do with the large heart (large heart = more oxygen in the blood to convert to energy output in very simple terms) On the Dam’s side this is passed on to male and female progeny and it is interesting to note that in the first generation (1g) Sea The Stars, Dark Angel, Kheleyf, Shamardal, Fastnet Rock, Frankel, Camelot and Pivotal are all from 1g Dams. Secretariat had the largest heart of all and this is in the bloodline of Lope De Vega, Elusive Quality, Casamento….a dam that carried the gene is Something Royal which is in the bloodline of Pivotal, Fastnet Rock, Kheleyf.

    Which progeny of the respective sires is best over different distances is the missing piece of the puzzle but would suggest that 7f to 14f is probable the angle look for as the sires mentioned above seem to better at thes middle distances rather than being out and out sprinters but tha is an area for further research.

    Hope the above is an enjoyable read and hopefully provides some additional information that is useful.

    All the best. Silver

    1. It is hard to see the actual size of a horse’s heart being given anywhere, or am I missing something? Thinking about that from a human’s perspective would not a large heart be something bad, in that it was working too hard? Food for thought. Apples and pears I know.

      What I like about Newcastle AW is the straight mile course. It was mentioned about it suiting the galloping type. It also gives horses more time to get into the race as it does not have to spend time navigating bends. I will be concentrating on races around a mile at that track. So first go June 1st!

      I do believe that there will be an angle or two re sires on this surface, so I look forward to the performance of such micros.

      Good luck Martin

    2. Hi Silver

      Thanks for that interesting, thought provoking comment.
      I am new to the bloodstock/pedigree world really, and no doubt you could spend a lifetime just in that one area of interest!

      Is the official Formbook worth getting? / are the comments etc different from what you get in The Racing Post online/results/races comments etc?

      Where do you get all the info about genes/hearts etc – any particular resources/books?

      I watched ‘The Art Of Mating’ which Jack Cantillon produced with a few people from the bloodstock world. I’ve yet to watch the other two weeks and some of his other videos, but if you’ve any interest in bloodstock you may find them interesting…

      https://www.youtube.com/user/jcantillon

      *
      Galileo – his stats can’t have been much in the angles I was looking at – in any case, his progeny tend to be over bet , although an AE 0.88 for all of his career runners. But they lose around 230+ points per year to SP . Without doubt it’s a specialist area – with distance moves etc I can tend to trust/rely/use trainer stats/history as the main guide, while glancing at what some of their relatives may have done, but maybe I could look at pedigrees more.

      In terms of distances for my angles – the stats were pretty similar across the board, although more runners over 7f+, but 5/6f were decent enough. Many of those youngsters will no doubt be precocious enough and/or their bloodline class gets them through distances which may on paper be unfavourable. But, a complex, fascinating side of the game.

      Josh

  3. brilliant stuff Josh & Silver .. just lifted my head away from My HRB delvings to see these great angles give me further food for thought … after i have finished updating my 297 micro angles 🙂 i think i have 3 system spaces left for use .. i think the above will be adapted and implemented for sure 🙂

    KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK ! .. Not long now until the gates of Racing will re-open once again …………. CAN’T WAIT 🙂

    I trust your not wasting anytime MC ??? 🙂
    Keep safe .. keep sound and try and keep sane 🙂

    LGBster 🙂
    Furloughed but not down !!! 🙂

    1. Hi GBster, good to see you are active and well! I really hope 1 June happens, there’s only so much stuff I can do round the house 🙁
      My dog has lost weight he’s walked that much 🙂

  4. Hi all…great to make contact again and must admit the response took me by surprise when I came to check the comments again so first off…hope everyone is ok that is the main thing…and given the questions have had to dig out a few reference books for those interested so hopefully the following will answer the questions.

    First off…Secretariat and heart weight comparisons…The average race horse heart weighs 7.9lbs or 3.6 kg..Secretariat’s heart weighed about…21-22lbs based on comparing it with a horse called Sham . The horse died in 1993 and the heart weighed 18 lbs…they compared the size of Sham to secretariat and came up with the estimate od 21-22lbs…the results come from performing a necropsy on the dead horses…So you can see that compared with the average race horse heart Secretariat comes in as three time bigger which equals three times as much oxygen and energy than your average. Hope that helps.

    Books: Sarah Montgomery has written three books on this subject of the large heart affecting performance.
    The Thoroughbred Sires That Have Dominated The Racing World “How The Xh-Large Heart Gene Has Been A Dominating Factor”…”How To Breed Classic Racehorses Volume 2″…I know the title is very long and am not quite sure she if she could decide on the title but it is an excellent guide to the sires that have large hearts as determined by genetics .

    Also by Sarah Montgomery is a book that examines the female line in relation to passing on the genes for larger hearts called “The Thoroughbred Female Families That Have Dominated The Racing World!” This is Volume 1 but not described as such

    The third book by her is called “Breeding For Solid Conformation. How To Breed Classic Racehorses Volume 3”. Don’t you just love the long titles!

    Anyway, these are brilliant books and can be purchased on Amazon but they are not cheap…my goodness…just checked the prices and all three will set you back about £230.00.for all three paperbacks……cannot believe the price..cannot remember what I paid for them but was no way that much…sorry everyone did not think they would be that expensive but they are excellent and comprehensive in terms of following pedigree lines. more to follow…silver

  5. continued….on the question of buying the Form Book…yes worth buying but at £40 it is not cheap but compared with buying the racing post everyday for 365 days it is better value overall I think as it has all the races on the flat…jumps annual separate so another £40 quid if you want that one….for reference and checking quality of races I would say it is a must have but not cheap…you do get extensive comments for the past season especially interesting for the upcoming season to research 2yo and 3 year old form lines ..the main reason I bought this years annual. Info very comprehensive much more than the Free comments on Racing Post web site. At the end of the day it is a personal choice.

    Galileo…you are right Josh definitely over bet as O’Brian buys most of his progeny but given the pedigree can see the logic and has proved worthwhile of the years…Dams are important though…Urban Sea as a case in point and distance and going should be no problem for a quality horse but some sires are better at specific distances than others and Dubawi progeny tend to go better on the AW but it is not an exact science!

    Hope I have managed to answer the queries. All the best to you all. Silver

  6. Just one final reference for anyone interested…you can check any horses pedigree by going to http://www.pedigreequery.com…the cost for one month is $10…..about £8.50….they go back for 9 generations so if you are looking for specific bloodlines, dosage info on the sire line or for conduit mares, the x factor or large heart bloodlines it is all there…gd site for checking pedigrees of unraced 2 and 3yo horses..overall the better pedigrees do win more but this is reflected in the betting and trainers who can afford the stupid amount of money spent on yearlings etc.,….assessing an unraced 2 yo usually comes down to who it is trained by, the market price and the purchase price so by using the website you can assess the race in terms of pedigree…more of an art form than an exact science…but it can throw up a few surprises especially if a decent e/w price as the market is usually priced up on trainer and purchase price…Silver

    1. Silver/anyone else that’s interested.
      https://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm?gclid=Cj0KCQjwn7j2BRDrARIsAHJkxmy4ho0UZbGJX_hrSUS6NgI1mk0KuJV2-QCqdv1y1PkH2GoPpi_db40aAtzFEALw_wcB
      Just input horses name year of birth and the dams name
      Voila you will see a wealth of information including dosage and nicking stats which is very informative. Especially the data report on number of foals and how many raced and won. Also take note of the BW figure and the ael amount as these are good class indicators of the latest progeny.
      Hope this helps.
      David

      1. Hi David…Thanks for the info…have had a quick look and comprehensive site with good reports…just depends how much you have to spend!! Could work out quite expensive so would have to be very selective in researching pedigrees and progeny results so will have a closer look over the coming weeks as 2yo and 3yo unraced horses would be an area to concentrate on where there is no form…appreciate the info and the link…all the best Silver

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.