Royal Ascot Review: Part 2

Royal Ascot Review Part 2… eye-catchers / a jockey / two trainers…

You can find Part 1 HERE>>>

*

Royal Ascot Review: Part 2 (days 1-2-3)

Eye-catchers

To start with a handful of eye-catchers from the handicaps that I’d like to think should be winning again soon…

Day 1

The Ascot Stakes

Buildmeupbuttercup

I won’t win prizes for originality with this one and I doubt she will fly under the radar too much on her next few starts but from her wide draw she was dropped in and given too much to do. It may have been a deliberate ploy to settle her and ensure she finished off her race, just mistiming the challenge slightly. She made up plenty of ground up the straight, but the winner had first run and that effort took its toll late on. She’s clearly well handicapped off 91 on the flat and it will be interesting where she turns up next. She’s also unexposed in handicap hurdles. One to watch and I wouldn’t be shocked if she turned up at Galway in one of their big handicaps, flat or hurdles.

Time To Study

This 5 year-old gelding lost his way for Mark Johnston last year where he ran him plenty, as you’d expect, and maybe he didn’t enjoy that so much. In any case he looked back to his best here leading well over 1f before his stamina gave out – well he was out-stayed, certainly in that going.

He could be back to something near his best here and is a stayer to follow, especially if dropped in distance. A strongly run 2m may be perfect for him and some cut in the ground does look important to him, to show his best on turf.

(I believe he’s an intended run for the Northumberland Plate on Sat)

Arctic Fire

I should mention the old timer who ran a decent 6th here, has always had a touch of class and on this evidence should still have races in him. He arrived here on the back of a flat win and is ‘unexposed’ on the level. He was held up last here and never dropped his head. He was pulling his jockeys arms out and I’m surprised he stayed on so well/still had something left up the straight. It was a run which suggests he’s got a decent staying handicap in him if settling. I wouldn’t mind seeing a more experienced big race rider on him.

 

Day 2

The Royal Hunt Cup

Style Hunter

He’s in the ‘could be anything’ category in handicaps and this run suggests that he could pick up a decent pot one day. He took a while to get going and ended up in the middle of the track, having been stuck behind horses for a time. When he got into the clear he flew somewhat and stayed on well. A strongly run 8f may be fine albeit he could be worth a go over further. It could be that running on softer ground helped him and he certainly has a question on proper fast ground. He will be winning races and is one to track, especially if/when Frankie jumps on.

Red Starlight

This 4 year old filly, trained by Richard Hannon Jnr is the other I want to keep an eye on. She’s threatened to win a big race but it hasn’t quite fallen into place yet this season. Here, she was arguably on the wrong side of the track but did hit the front on her side at one point. Her exertions took their toll late on in this – maybe the combo of the ground and this stiff finish/pace, but it was still a decent run which suggested she has plenty of ability and can handle the rough and tumble of these races. Maybe a strongly run 7f would be ideal for her.

 

Day 3

The Britannia

Awe

This was painful viewing for those of us who had a fun multiple on Detorri. Alas I wasn’t smart enough to do the earlier four-timer but I’d backed Sangarious and had also put him in a fun double with Turgenev. Sadly for me I think Fankie’s adrenaline got the better of him, which isn’t a surprise. He did go too hard too soon (indisputable as per the sectional times) but you can understand why he rode him that way and he probably thought he’d keep galloping. That’s all said in hindsight of course and he’s allowed to misjudge the odd ride at Ascot! He’s just a joy to watch at this meeting/in these big races. Anyway…

Awe…

Another obvious one I suppose but when you finish 4th, drawn in stall 5 and the 1st (29), 2nd (22) 3rd (18) and 5th (31) were all drawn higher, clearly, it’s a run that should be marked up. He comfortably won his side here and ended up nearer the stand side, losing some ground in the progress also. There was a 2L gap back to the rest of the field. This race should produce plenty of subsequent winners, and the three in front of him look handy enough also. He seems versatile ground wise.

*

I should just mention Awe’s jockey, Kerrin McEvoy

He doesn’t ride over here as often as he used to. However, in 2019 to date he’s had 23 rides, 5 winners, and 9 wins|places. Based on the historical prices of his UK mounts he rides many more winners here than he should do and is often a jockey upgrade. (‘ive stolen those thoughts from an RTV review piece) He’s one to keep an eye on for as long as he’s riding over here.

*

Trainers…

William Haggas

I’ll conclude by mentioning a trainer or two to take away from the meeting. As I’m sure you’ll agree, a small name, whose horses often go unnoticed! Ahem. : )  I jest. However, I thought it interesting enough that he had his best meeting for some time – 2/13, 6 places. They were his first winners here since 2012 in which time he was 0/71, 14p. That may be an indication of how hard it is to win at Royal Ascot, especially when not having the patronage of certain owners etc.

It could also be that he has his best crop of horses for some time in terms of quality and ability. Whether that rings true throughout the rest of the season time will tell, but I thought it interesting enough. Those winners were with older horses, 4 and 5, and maybe his older squad this year have a bit more about them.

So far in 2019 his four year olds are 10/35, 20p, +28 BFSP. Maybe they’re worth keeping an eye on.

I’ve already highlighted his superb record with Tudhope this year (15/24,18p, +38 BFSP)

 

Charlie Fellowes

Thanks Be was his first Royal Ascot winner and he’s clearly a young trainer going places.

In 2019 his handicappers are: 69 bets / 16 wins / 30p / 23% sr / +72 BFSP

Those profit figures are helped by his Ascot winner, but it should be noted that with those sent off 8/1 or shorter SP…

45 bets / 15 wins / 26p / 33% sr / +43 BFSP / AE 1.39

(performing 39% above market expectations)

His handicappers that have had 3-9 career runs

56 bets / 15 wins / 23p / 27% sr / +79 BFSP / AE 1.47

Coincidentally he’s 1/35 in Novice races so far this year. He does have Novice/Maiden winners, but it would appear his handicappers are the place to focus, especially his lightly raced ones.

*

That’s it for my Royal Ascot 2019 Review. With any luck there’s something of interest to take away from the above.

Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. I have not had a look and I think that they have only just started working together? An interesting angle may be when Hayley Turner rides for good old Charlie in handicaps off the lighter weights. Hayley can do 8 stone OK.

    What about following certain owners at the prestigious meeting? They must ask their trainers to make sufficient efforts to have winners at Royal Ascot. I am thinking of ‘The Lads’ and Aiden O’Brien; The boys in blue from Godolphin and Prince Khaled Abdulla to name three. They had a good meeting and I will track them in 2020.

    1. Well that’s a given with those owners isn’t it? In sense those three named arguably have the pick of the best bred horses in the game /from their breeding operations and obviously their buying power. All are owner breeders also so group 1s/black type /Ascot winners can only enhance value. Most horses from those operations there to run their race I think.
      I mean Aidan only trains for The Lads doesn’t he? Doesn’t have many outside owned ones and those that are involve the lads to some degree. So for them more a case of Aidans stats being more important than owners I think. Albeit in fairness they have the odd outside trained one. But you can dig into all three of those owners in HRB I think. I think all of Godolphins are there to run their race. Doubt you’d find many ways in but I could be wrong. Appleby has group winners all distances and handicap winners etc.
      There could be some owners ways in mind.

      I see Fellowes has just banged in a 16s winner at Newcastle in a handicap, 4th career start. Obv I wasn’t on haha

  2. Did anyone watch the webinar? If so any thoughts?
    I like the idea of a ‘course’ but the price is a bit high for me at the moment.

    1. I’m intrigued what your thoughts on webinar were? Assume it was useful/interesting, esp if idea of a course then appealed.
      Maybe I need to make a cheaper alternative haha. Albeit given the form of my content in recent months I’ve a few things to improve on first, esp consistency. But did always like the idea of doing various recordings like that, esp from more basic to mid level.

      1. The webinar itself was very basic and probably only of any use to someone who has no real betting knowledge in any area. But the course on how to pick your own bets really interested me.
        Personally I’ve been football betting since I was 12 and have a passion for the game so have a pretty decent knowledge of what to do when it comes to finding a good football bet.
        On the otherhand horse racing is something I really enjoy but have no real knowledge in hence my reliance on tipsters. What I’ve always really wanted is a good insight into how ‘good’ punters pick their bets, assess a race etc.
        On that note do you ever do a meet up of members?

        1. Oh and I do reckon a good ‘course’ at a reasonable price would have appeal wider than just myself!

        2. No I don’t but I’ve pondered doing such a meet up, both socially and always idea of A racing chat time get together. I’ve been struggling for some time to get on top of everything and fact it’s a content business and the content has not had a great year is of my most concern at moment. But in truth setting up a race day and meeting point in Midlands or something wouldn’t be that hard. Maybe I’ll ponder something for the autumn. Or a meeting at Worcester in October or something.

          Did you read my recent report in members about using section one etc? There was a fair bit of race analysis generic stuff in it but maybe I need to bring it to life in a video and talk through some of the ideas step by step. I try to be more systematic in my race approach now in terms of steps in try to go through

          1. I read the document you made recently and really liked it. It’s stuff like this along with the knowledgeable members who post which I really like about the site.
            I think you might live very near me from your previous comments so I’d prefer a meet in the north west but a meet in the midlands sounds ok haha.

          2. Oh and I think videos would be really useful. Everyone has different learning styles and all that.

          3. Sorry just noticed I put this in the wrong section again! I was out and did it on my phone so didn’t notice. Sorry!

  3. Re: Stylehunter take a closer look as he leaves the stalls. Maybe lost the race there??

    1. Hmm possibly yea, just watched it again- fell out the stalls. He’s held up usually anyway but that may have affected the position he could hold, and if his starting point is 3/4 lengths further forward and he gets a clear run up nearside, then who knows, that could have made all difference given how he finished.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.