Cheltenham Festival 2019: Ante-Post Chat

your ante-post Festival fancies/discussion…

The purpose of this post is to provide a space where you can chat away in the comments, discussing any ante-post fancies you have or horses you are looking forward to.

If you wish to share please state the horse, the race, and a sentence on why you fancy it. There is no point in just listing a horse (s) as that just defeats the object of the exercise. Also try and be succinct and keep comments short enough. 🙂 (a note for myself if nothing else!) That will help esp when you reply to certain comments and will allow readers to flick through with ease. 

As with last year I look forward to reading your many thoughts and fancies.

I’m not a big Ante-Post player myself but I know many of you are, especially with Non-runner-no-bet concessions.

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The Festival 2019

As with every year there will be comprehensive coverage on this blog. Last year I put all content behind a paywall and will be doing so again. (existing members have full access as part of subscription)  This is a reflection of the amount of work I put in (10h+ days) and the fact we have done quite well in recent years. I tend to focus on 14 races… the 10 handicaps and the other ‘marathon’ races… the NH Chase, Potato Race, RSA, Gold Cup. I also look at The Midland’s National on the Saturday.

Last year was my best to date, and i’ll be hoping to match it, or even surpass it. That will be tough, but it won’t be for the want of trying. This is my favourite ‘puzzle solving’ week of the year and I like to give it everything I’ve got.

Last year’s results below. You can read a full review of the Festival 2018 HERE>>>>

13 races / 6 winners / +92 points

Vintage Clouds 3rd / Shantou Flyer 2nd / Knight of Noir UP/ Ms Parfois 2nd / Duel At Dawn UP /Testify UP/ Mr Whitaker WON 9/1/ Bleu Berry WON 28/1 /Barra 3rd/ Fix Le Kap / Turning Gold 5th/ Mastermind UP / Lovenormoney UP/  Sykes UP / Last Goodbye UP / Willie Boy Fell / Sugar Baron UP/ Final Nudge UP/ Missed Approach WON 12/1 / Flying Tiger UP /Whisky Sour 3rd /Brelade UP /Smaoineamh Alainn UP /Discorama 2nd  /Blow By Blow WON 12/1 /Dresden Fell /Some Plan Fell /Dolos UP /Kilbrichen Storm WON 50/1  / Mulcahys Hill UP/Western Climate /Billy Bronco /Regal Flow WON 25/1

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There will be more news in due course for those of you who wish to join me during that week. But that discussion is for another time. (it will be through ClickBank again so you can get a full refund ,no questions asked, if it gets to the end of the week and you didn’t enjoy it)

For now…

If you have any strong AP wagers or horses you are really looking forward to, then post away. Has anyone spotted a handicap plot job??

I look forward to reading your musings, and thanks for getting involved,

Josh

 

Cleeve Racing Free Cheltenham Yankee report

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

  1. I’m a big fan of Ante Post betting at Cheltenham, especially when the NRNB season starts with Bookmakers who haven’t closed me down (like Sky & Betvictor Grrr!). Currently I have just over £1k in Ante Post bets – mainly on the big races. The two “interest” bets that I have had so far are both in the Albert Bartlett. I’m on Rockpoint ( 20/1 PP) ) and Naidatak ( 33/1 Bet365)). Both EW but I’m gambling that both will come down in price & I’ll be able to lay them off. We”ll see!

  2. I started my ante post betting this week. I bet win only and then lay off on the day for a free bet. All bets are £50 win unless specified.

    Bet 1 – JLT, Kildisart at 25/1.
    Bet 2 – JLT, Spiritofhtegames at 50/1.

    I am not too worried about NRNB as I am looking for value and taking a chance on these bets. I will add when more bets are made.

    1. I guess I wasn’t the only one listening to the ATR podcast this morning 😉 May very well agree with you on both although haven’t had a proper look barring the fact that horses who have won at Cheltenham in their career and have won LTO are 4/10, 7p in the JLT.

      1. Yes. I do not usually like Paul Kealy selections but he made a good argument about the top of this market being over valued. The selections do fit a good profile for such a race.

        1. I want a proper look before commiting but makes sense. Does make Highway interesting following the same train of thought.

          1. Got to think Highway one o one will go for the Novice Handicap on day 1. His rating is 145, and assuming it doesn’t go up between now and the festival, he’d be really interesting for this versus the stronger JLT.

          2. Highway is 16/1 for the race on day one and I cannot see her in the JLT on oddschecker but my eyes may be going?

          3. Yes you’re right. Not even entered for the JLT! Had thought Nick was thinking about him for this race. I’m a lost in translation fan for the JLT.

            Otherwise at his stage I would be very keen on Ballyoisin over hurdles at the Festival, I suspect probably in the Coral Cup if he gets an entry. He’s no longer entered in any of the grade 1 chases, and I just wonder whether they will take advantage of his hurdles mark like they did at Listowel.

          4. Yes hence why I said handicap. If you like your two for a grade 1 than surely you must love him for a handicap given you’d think Kil and Sprit need to be 150+ animals to win JLT hence why 145 for Highway looks lenient.

    2. I’m also on Kildisart EW, but fancy Lostintranslation for the JLT – I think the Cheltenham track will suit him.

      1. Lostintranslation look short to me at the price. It is the festival and at 5/1 with a month to go??? Bot value to me.

        Bet 3 – Close Brothers – Highway one o one, 16/1.

  3. I’ll start to pull some thoughts together later this week / next week, I do like to note horses that ran in, and were beaten at Cheltenham on Trials Day as well as winning, also switched to something, extra distance, shorter distance, chases to hurdles etc. at the Festival. Horses including Coo Star Sivola, Un Temps Per Tout, The Young Master have done well in the past following some of this logic.

    Horses that ran at Leopardstown Last Time Out I will also note, particularly those beaten in Graded action going for a handicap. The Storyteller a prime example from last year.

  4. Aramon 12/1 Supreme
    Think will defo go off shorter on the day
    Think form stronger than others, Angels B only the 1 out and Al Dancer wins coming in lower class races (at this point)
    Think if ridden a bit more prominently or at least nearer to closest rivals then seems game enough and good enough to go and win
    Think beaten more by Rubys ride the Lto than the horse KD, was alot closer to the front and coming into the straight was 4/5 L ahead and Aramon still caught up and only beaten a neck

  5. Another one I fancy Is Impulsive Star EW in the 4 mile Novices Chase. Again, I think the odds will be shorter come race day.

  6. I’m going to have a proper look at a few today given I am off to Argentina in 6 days but my only bet so far (all ante post bets are 0.5pt e/w) is Elixir De Nutz for the Supreme NRNB 12/1 0.5PT E/W (you can get 14s with 365 but will record to 12s) just in case Grand Sancy franks the form today.

    1. Well Elixir has been trimmed a couple of points following Grand Sancy’s win today.

      Second ante-post bet is Shattered Love for the Ryanair 0.5pt e/w (make sure you go NRNB as there is a chance she goes for Gold Cup although they will be daft to do so I think)

      1. I just got 14/1 on the exchanges and so Bet No 4 is now in place.

        Enjoy Argentina, ‘dont mention the war’.

        1. Each to their own mate although certainly wouldn’t advise anyone to back any ante-post bets on the exchanges this far from the festival given no NRNB safety-net but I think we just play it differently.

          1. There’s some 150/160 for Shattered Love on the exchanges, not sure if that’s an indication they might go for the GC but worth a few quid to find out, some 16 for the place too.

    2. I agree with your choice of Elixir Nick. That Tolworth win and now Grand Saucy’s victory at Wincanton has backed it up. The Tolworth stat for the Supreme has been quite strong recently. You can still get 12’s with PP and 14’s with Betfair. have a great time in Argentina, a beautiful country.

  7. In the Ultima Ms Parfois is 16/1. The horse has course form and has had a light campaign. Spring horse? Will it go for another race? If it goes for this race it look value to me.

      1. Maybe but the National weights are out and so she can have a go at this as well. I know that she does not fit the stats that well but 16/1 now.

          1. Yes maybe, but a big pot is a big pot and you would want to have a go. The weather is drying up at present but three weeks to go.

          2. Yeah but unless you’re clairvoyant about the weather surely its a bad ante post bet win or lose.

          3. Yeah sure but the general thinking with ante post bets is finding horses with proven form on varying ground. Both of mine have won on good and soft ground.

          4. You wouldn’t want to have a proper go, if the aim is the National – if that’s been plan all season, they won’t be bottoming her out in Ultima and will have left a bit to work on. But that may be the aim of course! I’m not sure she has the pace for that race but I could be wrong.

  8. National Hunt Chase – Mister Malarky 16/1. The horse looks to be coming right and looks a player for a Cheltenham race?

  9. In writing up Cleeve’s antepost Festival Yankee I reviewed all runs for Topofthegame and really liked what I saw. He looks to be crying out for a step up to 3 miles on a galloping track (he’s quoted for the JLT but I think there is no chance of him lining up for that, he brings good festival form (on festival ground) to the table… and his connections know a thing or two about winning novice chases at the festival. Why he is twice the price of Santini is beyond me… looks rock solid for the frame and also a likely shortener!

  10. I have had 10 ante post bets now:

    JLT – Kildisart at 25/1 and Spiritofthegames at 60/1.
    Close Brothers – Highway One O One at 20/1.
    Supreme – Elixir De Nutz at 14/1 and Champagne Platinum at 40/1.
    NH Chase – Mortal at 25/1 and Impulsive Star at 14/1..
    Albert Bartlett – Commander Of Fleet at 10/1.
    Fred Winter – Future Proof at 40/1.
    Grand Annual – Not Another Muddle at 20/1.

    I have them in win bets to win £1,000 each plus in mixed each way multiples got mega payouts. I appreciate that some may not run. I will have other bets on the days based upon the trends and what I perceive as value.

    Any thoughts on my picks?

    1. All look pretty sound. Can’t argue against any of them and in a few cases I have the same selections. My bets in the same races,

      JLT – Lost In Translation (8/1)
      Close Brothers – Highway One O One (16/1), Cubomania (25/1)
      Supreme – Elixir de Nuit (33/1), Angels Breath (14/1)
      NH Chase – Glenloe (25/1) and hoping Impulsive Star runs in the Kim Muir
      Albert Bartlett – Dickie Diver (20/1)
      Fred Winter – Surin (14/1)

      There are others too who I backed at decent prices but have now been ruled out. Of those above, in my heart or hearts, I think High One O One and Elixir de Nuit have good place prospects but will be beaten by 1 or 2 classier horse. Surin I think is really interesting given quality of form if he turns up in the Fred Winter.

      Multiple wise, I have a few bets with Paisley Park at 12/1 included, which I’m hopeful about. And finally….some of my more hopeful darts in a couple of other races:

      Byrne Plate – Janika (12/1) / Siruh du Lac (14/1). I think that the form of the Cheltenham race where these two fought it out is rock solid. And Foxhunters – Hazel Hill (10/1)

  11. not a big fan of ante post but i have had a couple this year taking advantage of an offer
    Supreme Novices Hurdle – Money Back If You Lose As Cash – Non Runner No Bet Battleoverdoyen 12-1
    Ballymore Novice Hurdle – Money Back If You Lose As Cash – Non Runner No Bet Fast Buck 50-1

    1. well that hasn’t worked out Battleoverdoyen (4-1) goes for the Ballymore so with my money back iv’e taken a bit of a punt on Rouge Vif @ 25-1 for the Supreme

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