Members Daily Post: 26/04/18 (complete)

Notes (x3) + Festival tips x3, Write ups… Section 1 (comp), test zone, + Punch (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Warwick

3.55 – Forthefunofit (hncp h) 12/1 S2 UP 12/1

4.25 – Clubs Are Trumps (m1) ES I1 6/1 S3  S5  UP

5.00 – Skandiburg (NHF) 16/1 S2A UP

5.35 – Floki (NHF) 20/1 S2A  UP

 

Kempton

6.50 – Bugsie Malone (m2) 14,30 G3 9/2 WON 9/2>5/2 

 

Perth (summer)

2.20 – Baby King (hncp c) H3 I3 G3  9/4 S4  WON 9/4>2/1 

2.55 – Mick The Poser (m1) I3 8/1 UP

5.10 – Mighty Thunder (nov hncp) 14,30  8/1  UP

 

FLAT

Beverley 

1.30 – Bahuta Acha (all hncps) 14/1 UP

4.20 – Vigee Brun (all hncp 5yrs, 4yo+, micros TJC/age) ES+ G1 6/1 S3A S6 3rd 9/1

4.55 –

Jacbequick (all hncp 5yrs, 4yo+, + micro 90 days) ES+ I3 11/1 S3A 2nd 12/1

Trading Point (all hncp 5yrs, 4yo+, micros TJC/age/90 days) ES+ 9/2 S3A WON 9/2>5/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 6/74,25p, -0.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +104.5)

 

NOTES

3.55 War – Forthefunofit – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 12/1*

Hmm..weak in market pre race, backed in then went out, looked rather tubby to my eye on TV. Best move on from that quickly. 

2.55 Perth – Mick The Poser – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 13/2*

*that was poor, travelled well into it and found nothing after the second last, went out like a light. Hopefully you had a saver on ‘the danger’ horse as below.

1.30 Bev – Bahuta Acha – 1 point win 14/1 (gen) UP 10/1*

*no excuse there in terms of draw/pace/race set up, to my eye..well based on the fact that Nick’s winning poke (well done) was right next to him through the race, so if good enough, it set up for a hold up one it seems. That Mick Easterby winner has hacked up. So easy. Looking back at that irish form maybe no shock and the Easterby’s are a canny operation…he could improve plenty more as the season progresses and if moved up to 6f. Blew the cobwebs away on the AW…how they run on their AW seasonal reappearance clearly irrelevant, although any horse can run a shocker at Southwell. I couldn’t leave the selection given those micro stats. On we go 

 

Forthefunofit… Jonjo won at Cheltenham race last week with one that had been off the track for a while and having taken a look, in the last 6 years he is 3/15,6p with handicap hurdlers returning 301-730 days off the track. 3/10,5p in C3/4. This one has run well after an extended break before, at Cheltenham, over a trip short of his best. He has the ability to win this, is lightly raced for his age, and I can’t say for sure this handicap mark is beyond him. This looks a rather open/weak enough race to my eyes with every horse having a question or two. The ground should be fine and he stays. Coleman is on and all in all, I thought for those reasons, 12s was worth a poke. Given his profile, which suggests he is fragile, I suspect they won’t want to waste any opportunity with him, esp on first run after an absence. I suspect he will be fit to go here, just whether anything else has a bit more in hand/proves too strong late on…. Beneagles would be my main danger in this, and the Bailey horse but he is short and returns after 80 odd days, suggesting there may have been a problem. But he was in form when last seen and is unexposed.

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Mick The Poser… 8s just about felt worth a stab here for this lightly raced hurdler. Now aged 4 he could have developed from last year where he ran the odd race of credit, and he gets a weight for age allowance. He has won on the flat so knows how to win. He returned the last day after 130 odd days and I hope that he needed the run and will come on for it. Candlish doesn’t mess around when sending one to Perth, 4/13,6p all runners in the last 5 years. Traainer/jockey are 2/6,3p here in C4 handicaps, 2/7,4p over the distance. I thought he may appreciate this slightly better ground and this sharp 2m. He ran well at Carlisle in an all age handicap hurdle, age 3, where he was just in the lead jumping the last. That was over 1f further and up a stiff hill, which I think just caught him out but he wasn’t beat far. A repeat of that run puts him bang there. Finally, there isn’t much pace on here and he should race handily… it isn’t impossible he gets an easy lead. If Sean can stoke him up and kick on turning for him, he could get away from them, game over. More than happy to take a chance at 8s.

DANGER.. horse… The Compeller …looks worth a small saver at 6/1, having run well the last day… he is usually held up and will come with a late rattle..i’m not sure they will go fast enough for him here, but he should be staying on at the end if building on that last run. The fav is worth taking on given the trainer’s dodgy stats with horses returning 60+ days off, 1/61,7p last 2 years…not impossible bust such stats make 10/3 iffy to my eyes.

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Bahuta Acha… oh I agonised over this one but the whole point of my ‘notes’ approach, which worked so well the back end of last season, was to stop me agonising over a ‘tip of the day’ (where I would take say this shortlist of 3 above, and deliberate over which one to tip…no good) and go with the odd hunch/take a chance, at the bigger priced ones. I doubt I would be tipping this one if SDS was not booked… that is the main reason for having a go… because trainer/jockey are 2/7,5p in turf handicaps, inc a winner here. The trainer’s record with horses after a break is rather poor, but with SDS, 1/2, on those returning after breaks of 60+ days, and that was a big field C4 handicap at Donny back in 2016. There could be nothing in the booking and SDS simply didn’t have a ride in the race, so why not! But, were he to win at 14s, knowing all of that, I would be a tad disgruntled. In all likelihood he may need the run but there is only one way to find out. The draw… well from the stats i’m looking at over this distance/going/no. of runners, high draws are fine! Indeed the coffin boxes appear to be stalls 6-11 which in the 13 race sample i’m looking at have a poor record. All winners drawn 5 or lower or 12+. This one has 4 horses on his inside that are usually held up from what I can see, so it isn’t impossible he can get out and grab a handy position. Plenty of these may do too much up front and it sets up for a late rattle, sweeping wide. He is young, unexposed and in theory they should be more to come from him this year. He was in form when last seen and conditions look fine. It could be he will stay on late and he now needs 6f+, that’s my hunch, but i’m educated guessing and at 14s+ I like to look for positives and reasons to back them, rather than reasons not to. The market doesn’t really guide with this yard so we shall see! …. Bogart looks a danger and maybe worth a saver given he is fit, drawn low and races up there… at monster prices Pearl Noir and Desert Ace looked intriguing but the market would suggest not to day, at the moment..interesting if money comes.

*

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‘Festival Tips’ 

6.05 Punch 

A Great View – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/BetfS/PP/888) 7/1 (gen) WON 15/2>7/1 

Moonshine Bay – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) UP

Burren Life – 1 point win  – 40/1 (coral/BV) 33/1 (gen) UP

 

Trends shortlist: those three, + Art of Security (lack of run 90 days a neg), + 2 reserves, The Kings baby / Hey Little Boy

Well.

I decided to have a look at this race with some stats/trends and I suppose as soon as I decided to do that, I had to tip in it! I used 8 pointers and have very much stuck with the stats shortlist and clearly it’s likely it will get broken, but having fired out 4, i decided to go with three (and prob change on Art of S just in case, that would be annoying, but he ran a shocker in this last year and has a fitness doubt..big price though…and Meade is 0/8 in this i think) Anyway… 10/10 had 1-3 career wins, 0-2 handicap wins, 1-2 hurdle wins. I was hoping that would leave a shortlist but it left a fair few. 10/10 had an OR maximum 6lb higher than their last win, 10/10 ran over 2m4f or further LTO, carried 11-8 or less on back (exc claims), had run in a C2 or higher, and had run in a race with 12+ runners in LTO. Those 8 stats leave the 6 horses listed above. I have focused on those, as simple as that, and while flicking through others I haven’t looked in much depth. But, that is the point of this approach, in a race type where ‘form’ analysis often means sod all. And we have 99 points to play with from this year’s Festival bank 🙂 (+45 or so from Free tips in ‘Festival’ races)

A Great View… ticks all the boxes and ran at Chelt Festival LTO..those runners are 2/8,2p in this race in last decade. He didn’t have the clearest of runs and the race may not have been run to suit, but he looks progressive, has big field handicap hurdle form (and that last race looks much deeper than this to my eye, but i thought the same about Lagostovegas) and there was no reason not to back him. Yes 15/2 may be a tad short but given the shortlist and all the pointers i’d be more annoyed were he to win unbacked, and more fancied horses do well in this. It isn’t usually a race for the rags (22/1+ SP) so with that said…

Moonshine Bay…well I hope there is some money for him. He ticks my Jessie micro below and were he to win at 33s, not tipped/backed, given his place on the shortlist and the qualifier below, well, it isn’t worth thinking about! I’d rather lose the 1 point watching him being scrubbed along after 3 flights and PU again, at this price. Within the 8 pointers above, (which cover all of the last 10 winners from 60 odd runners), those that PU LTO are 2/9,4p. A random stat but interesting. This will be the best ground he has faced for a while and the yard may have been under a cloud when last seen, the odd one has gone close so far this week. His first PU two starts back he was found to be coughing post race…it’s not impossible he missed plenty of work before the PU LTO, and in any case may not like a bog. It’s one thing winning a weak maiden in Heavy, when you may out-class rivals, another running well in it when pitched into a better race. So, that is what the hope is pinned around although clearly it’s a poke, and I am clutching at a few straws! But, i’m trusting the stats.

Burren Life… another PU LTO. Elliot is 0/6,1p in the race which suggests he hasn’t targeted it before (Mullins 2/30 odd, the only trainer to win this more than once in last decade, but he throws plenty of darts at it, given his week so far, no doubt one will land). This horse gets 1st time blinkers and races on better ground- that is what hopes are pinned on. Like Moonshine Bay he is lightly raced and in the ‘could be anything’ category. At the moment they both look out of sorts, but given the price, connections blah blah blah, I had to throw the dart. Had to.

Art of Security.. may get some change BFSP just in case, to cover the bets above, on the off chance he leaves me red faced. His run in this race last year and the time off have put me off. In 1- years those with 0 runs in 90 days are 0/23,0p although plenty of those were big prices. But the handful 16/1< and lower haven’t done much. I was happy no to tip him and we shall soon find out if i’m a fool or not. The reserves look two rags, but one is trained by Mullins and if they get in… who knows!

Of the rest…well i haven’t really looked. The English have done well enough in this from a handful of darts thrown.

**

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ALL tips complete,as of 10am as per usual Mon-Friday.  

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.30 P – Some Are Lucky (m3/4) up

4.05 P – Tigueur (m3/4)

2.20 P – Baby King (m1/3) WON 9/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown Day 3

‘Micro Quals’

Jessie H Handicaps

3.40 – Neverushacon / Rebelion Boy

6.05 – Moonshine Bay

Mullins NHF

7.45 – Castlebawn West / Getareason / Rio Vivas

‘Target’ Trainers

6.05 – Minella Awards

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Other Notes(from report) 

Starting points… hitting at least one bullet point/stat…

3.40 – Neverushacon 2nd /Rebellion Boy / Flaviana 4th / Park Paddocks WON 6/1

4.15 – American Tom UP/ Townshend / Tycoon Prince / Mr Fiftyone 4th / Cadmium WON 16/1

5.30 – Bacardy’s / Faugheen WON / Penhill / Yorkhill / Jezki

6.05 – Glenlow / Folsom Blue / Moonshine Boy / Ainsi Va La Vie  2nd

7.15 – The Birdie Crowe

 

BOLD.. I think those three hit the Mullins handicap pointers, and on that basis may be worth plenty of attention/a deeper look. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. Without Running anyone Down Good or Bad Services etc.
    Apart from LB
    Has Anyone out there any Experience of Mathematician Betting . Profit/loss

    R

    1. Hi Richard
      I have used them from time to time when he has offers on. I have used the sat only one £3 mostly.
      He is quite good explains his selections well but his prices are a bit short especially since being on Rtp.
      I get his free newsletter which gives the odd tip now again.
      He is a bit, a very big bit, too expensive for me more for the pro punter.

      Hope this helps.

      Mike

      1. I am dubious of any service that doesn’t publish their P+L and just assume they are shysters.

        Lack of transparency is so common and there’s no excuse when charging such sums.

    2. I have tried his Saturday service a few times and almost without exception I would have been better off not following his advice. He is a stats nerd and goes into it in great depth but as I say, my experience has been frustrating except for one year his finding the Grand National winner. For me he is in the category of knowledgeable loser. Ive come across a few of those. Cant stand reading reams of notes about a race and at the end of it being advised to back one each way at 3/1

    3. Mathematician Betting?
      An honest opinion?

      I wouldn’t touch him. His ramblings are a tad ego-driven for me, the messages are fairly vague and he decides to just take days off on the basis that he’s put a message out for several days in a row, often covering mediocre racing and offering no bet, then “needing a rest” on a Thursday/Friday.

      Yesterday’s selection was equally split stakes between 2 horses in a 3-runner race, one at evens!

  2. Heard of them or him but never taken any notice, maybe have a look at the proofing services to get some idea. Racing Index is one of the most comprehensive ones I’ve seen and another who’s name escapes me at the moment! Something like Race proofing or tipster proofing I think!

  3. Oh Land Abloom Warwick Thursday 15:55 1pt e/w-Price taken 16/1
    Acclaim The Nation Beverley Thursday 13:30 1pt e/w-Price taken 7/1

    1. Rapid Applause Beverley Thursday 13:30 1pt e/w price taken 11/1-Given my original selection is a non-runner I had another look at the race and I couldn’t leave this one out who looks absolutely chucked in on his Irish rating (I really can’t see how he can be rated 10lbs lower in UK than Ireland) and before they played silly buggers with the headgear he was competitive in much better races than this off marks in the high 80s. Easterby does have Shaw at the track but clearly doesnt think his claim will be needed. Drawn a tad higher but given the NR in 2 and 2 hold up horses around him should be able to get prominent. The drop back to 5f is interesting.

      1. Out and about so missed it but a nice pick Nick,but feel more missed it than backed it.
        Keep up the good work

      2. Missed it Nick…great pick…out shopping with the Mrs…hate shopping…more than ever now. grrrr.lol
        Tony Mc

  4. Hurdlers & bumpers at Punchy after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO yesterday :

    4.55
    Next Destination WON
    Delta Work 2nd
    Kilbricken Storm 3rd
    Discorama 5th

    6.05
    Tornado Flyer WON
    Carefully Selected 3rd
    Relegate 7th

    Today :
    5.30 – Penhill
    6.05 – Glenloe

  5. God morning everyone.
    On the subject or Tipsters. I am sure plenty of you will have had dealings with Matt Mitter ( that cannot be
    his real name) and his array of services. Any comments would be welcome.

    1. Re : Matt Mitter, talks a good fight and the selections are backed up by lengthy write-ups.

      However, we’re currently live trialling one of his services on geegeez (I’ll provide the link if Josh OK’s it), but it’s currently 9/47 (19.1% SR) for a loss of £312.17 (47.3% of all stakes) after 33 betting days.

      I’m also proofing another of his services ahead of a live trial and that’s doing even worse..

      Chris

      1. Ah i’m sure people can find the review if they wish 🙂

        I emailed out for Matt a couple months back, for his free email list… I met him once in person when appearing on Peter Finch’s BetRacingNation tv show, my one and only appearance , before it closed down etc, and we stayed in contact on and off.

        My gut, which I tend to go on with such things, is in the ‘watching brief’ category!..anyway, his free list looked fine..i’d resisted before as I didn’t think it looked very professional and I have a high threshold for emailing out directly about services/trials…i’d resisted his free list before because the daily emails lacked an ‘unsubscribe’ link at the bottom – tut tut. I think that was business immaturity, although who knows- anyway, he got in touch again, i signed up to the free list for a few weeks before emailing out..and the free stuff looked decent, as results aside…his write ups are informative and I do believe he is knowledgeable. And they had the unsubscribe link this time !

        In terms of services, I have no view, although have never promoted any directly and i’m don’t think I will be..i either rely on people I trust in the business (a small, but select/quality circle), my readers/members pointing the way (as with SP2A…who also independently proof) or a long history/independent reviews/proofing (from sources I trust)… given the review Chris mentions, at this moment in time I don’t think he ticks any of those boxes, services wise.

        I also don’t know what payment system there is or whether there is a no questions asked refund period…i’d be wary of touching anything that isn’t either through ClickBank (60 days after every payment, done through them, vendor cannot refuse/no say) or has that guarantee..although the latter relies on trust. I believe one of his was through ClickBank, but no idea on others… he clearly has his own service, but it does look to be becoming a bit of a ‘tipster’ house also. In the end results will speak for themselves… the fact he was willing to independent proof to geegeez is a positive sign as he is clearly confident enough in his own service. And he has been around for a little while now, which makes me think he must have some sort of loyal customer base, but who knows.
        Josh

  6. Good day yesterday with 1 win and 1 place from 3. Good Thyne Tara ran admirably but was met with Petralunga who was just too strong, Petralunga was my top rated horse but at his odds I don’t like to bet. However a nice return on Good Thyne Tara. Tornado Flyer split the front two in the last furlong to claim the win at a nice BOG of 12/1 may I add so some nice profit there. Relegate just was never in the running. On to today:

    1:30 Beverley – Bahuta Acha (11/1 lads, 10/1 gen) 0.5pt EW
    Unfortunately the odds for Bahuta Acha came in as I typed to what I have above but I got 12/1, however at 10/1 he is still value. Agreeing with Josh on this one so I won’t delve too much into what my thoughts are as Josh covered most. Just a horse that caught my eye as an improving horse.
    Mention: Crosse Fire (15/2 Bet365, 7/1 gen) 0.5pt EW

  7. Thanks Josh. I Think I will stick to you, Ian and Geegeez. That is enough content to keep me busy, very busy!!!

    1. Oh yea, that should be more than enough haha…. one of biggest problems in this game is service overload! I did that in my younger/early days… you can’t get to point where who you follow (systems/tips) and therefore the number of bets/getting prices, isn’t enjoyable/is a choir…well, that’s my view anyway, and it is vital, to leave enough mental space/time to pick your own bets also, if you so wish. I mean I am biased, but i’d say what i do (which covers the lot, but importantly gives you choice on a daily basis), a tipping service (SP2A the best i’ve yet to see of their sort, in terms or long long term consistency/to SP/a daily offering etc) and a set of racing tools if you so wish (Geegeez/Inform/HorseRaceBase say) should be more than enough!
      Less can be more! But everyone is different, and as I always say there is a service/approach/set of tools/a mix etc out there for everyone
      Josh

  8. I am going offline for a few days(never a bad thing now and then) but with the 48hr decs in for Haydock on Saturday its Dascombe time.Tom has been a real money spinner over the years here with winners at 50/1,25/1,20/1,16/1 and many more value winners.The bookies haven’t shut off this profitable angle as yet and maybe Tom will have a bad year this time but we have to go on whats gone before.The area to concentrate on is the handicaps esp 3yo though all age ones are also profitable.For the benefit of anyone new to the service I have found the bigger the price the better,many of his drift on the day,so make sure you use a BOGS account if you still have access,time to apply the blinkers and not overthink his entries:
    2.05 Calder Prince
    3.15 Fire Diamond
    3.45 Admiral Spice
    4.50 Punkawallah
    Often has multiple winners on the day so its ripe for patents,Lucky 15’s

    Lets hope we will be breaking out the champagne again and not crying into our beers

    1. Just doing the stats profile for Haydock now Gerry, in time for Sat!

      Last 3 seasons, in all age handicaps (3yo+, 4yo+)

      • T Dascombe: 85 bets / 20 wins / 33p / 24% sr / +59 SP / +78 BFSP / AE 1.61

      4yo+ the last 5 years (have added in a new 5 year section, min 10 winners, 25% + win SR and/or 50% win/p… in effect to form the ‘ES+’ strategy..

      • T Dascombe: 44 bets / 12 wins / 17p / 27% sr / +35 SP / +42 BFSP / AE 1.8

      Will maybe look at 3yo only for bonus stats, but from memory he was top of that pile also! He must have paid for a holiday for you by now haha, or Xmas a few times!
      Josh

      1. He has indeed Josh,i remember back in 2016 he had a 50/1 winner Capanova.My internet connection cut out as Graham Gibbons was making his move in the last 2 furlongs so i had to check teletext for the result,my first big winner without the victory dance.Graham is a local lad who had a bright future until he did a stupid thing

  9. Tipsters
    what annoys me is that there is no true regulations to their scams and lies,i am a racehorse owner with inside information surely it is time the BHA looked into these for they are using the good name of racing to their own ends and misleading people with their glossy brochures and adverts in the Racing Post who are not interested for they are making money off the adverts,and whats more their own flag ship Pricewise do not record his losses,what hope do we have.
    When i had my tipping line had dealings with Racing Post proofing my selections and what the lads in the office told me would make your hair curl but they could do nothing only what they were told.
    Some to avoid in my opinion are
    Steve Lewis Hamilton would not send me any proof of his results and claims.
    Lee Bolinbroke joined him for 12 months recorded his bets minus 100 points so much for him being in the know,thankfully only recorded his bets.
    Ashley Carr another who as been around in the know yet all the reviews i have read are not very favorable.
    Henry Rix another who would not send me proof of his results.
    The one tipster i would recommend who does not need to advertise very often who is honest and above board is Willie Mcfarland,who kindly gave me plenty of advice on starting my tipping line many years ago.
    For me tipsters who are always advertising they cannot be any good for if you are good and people are making money off you tips then they will continue to subscribe.

    1. Aren’t they regulated by the Advertising Standards Agency at least? I’m sure I’ve seen investigations by the ASA into tipsters with ludicrous claims.

      1. I do a lot of research into tipsters and it is more a case of them counting the earliest best price on a winner that is difficult to achieve rather than just lying about performance. I know some of the guys at Betting Insiders Club and at On Course Profits and they feel the same. There are some that do not always tell the truth and I do call them out via email. Some have even change their ways after!!!!
        I keep data of over 50 tipsters, systems and micros and create a graph that tells me about their performance over the past six weeks, three months, six months and twelve months on a points won or loss basis. Pretty cool if I say so myself. Guess who is top over the past six weeks? His name begins with a J? SP2A are 5th and Nick Mazur 7th. The tipster who is second is the guy I have put some of the Members onto already.

        1. haha, ahh…well assuming that’s me?! It has been a mad 6 weeks, rather exceptional, so we’d best enjoy it. It will level down soon enough, but i’d take being in the top 6 consistently, over time.

      2. Neil
        Join these 4 and see how much you lose let alone your subscriptions and these 4 have been around for years!!!

  10. Tips – we lost 4 points yesterday and are now minus 2.25 points for April. Today I will go with La Bague Au Roi, 5.30 Pun – Ran well at Cheltenham, had a wind op and the trainer has come over and won this race before. At 14/1 it is worth having 1 point each way at 14/1. Also 6.50 KP Southfield Theatre, 2 points each way at 11/2 – Has somde decent form, may like the ground and the course and can go well.

    Good luck.

    1. Ha, it’s because he replied to his own original message, brand new comments file in at the bottom, so he knows what to do next time there is a lunchtime replacement! 🙂

  11. This will probably go horribly wrong now but whilst the eye is in have had 0.75pt e/w on Swansway and Metronomic in the Beverley 15:45 since I think its between them and Ritas Man.

        1. Nope, not within the members club. (that’s my business head speaking) If someone has a red hot tipster they think people should be following they are free to email me 🙂

        2. I can give you some no cost tipsters to follow so that I do not take away from Josh’s site. The Betting Guy podcast is quite profitable for football tipping. Follow Nick and Colin on here for longer term profits. Saaed Bin Suroor runners on the all weather go off fairly short but are showing a steady cumulative profit. Hugh Taylor is going well recently on ATR.

  12. Also missed Nick’s replacement, ce la vie I suppose given the recent run of winners!

    I also backed La Bague Au Roi @ 16’s last night – the horse has the right profile for the race and there’s a few in here that’ll keep the pace honest which should suit.

    Another one I thought could be an interesting today is American Tom 4.15P @ 12’s. Lightly raced to date, a horse connections always thought was decent, I remember Ricci saying as much a couple yrs back when he won @ Punch.
    There’s a lot of horses in the race that are just not good enough to win this, indeed there is only 4 wins in the class between the 24 runners from 112 attempts (20p). It’ll probably pay to follow the high rated horses in this – the top 7 in the market are 9/10,26p since ’08.
    American Tom is the most lightly race of the field along with the Fav. Given Wille/Townsend form I thought the horse was well worth a go ew, if he handles the big field he could have the class to be much better than most of these. There’s certainly scope for that to happen given the horses profile to date.

  13. Hi Josh
    I am off to Perth tomorrow so if you have anything that would win me a few bob I would be grateful.

    Mike

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