Free Daily Post: 21/04/18 (complete)

Scottish National TIPS + Pointers …

TIPS

Scottish Grand National 

Regal Flow – 1 point EW – 25/1 (gen, 1/4 odds 5th places gen, will be declared to that) 

Vintage Clouds – 1 point win – 14/1 

Joe Farrell – 1 point win – 40/1 (lad/Betf) 33/1 (gen) 

 

Shortlist/’dangers’/kicking myself: those three plus…. Silsol / Ballyoptic / The Young Master 

Regal Flow… he hits my main stats below and is the one I like most form the stats shortlist of 6. I tipped him LTO in the members’ post as part of ‘Festival Week’ when he won at 25/1… I saw no reason to leave him here. He is in the form of his life and 11yo have a decent record in this. 10lb would not have stopped him LTO and he stuff Milansbar who ran with credit in THE Grand National, doing best of the British. He has run/won on decent ground and could be better for it! Who is to say he can’t win this? Bar Vicente he arguably has the best staying form in the race, over marathon trips. 25s seemed a tad insulting. Provided he can go the pace, jump and hold a position, he will stay (provided that pace on good doesn’t mean he goes a stride faster than he’d like)… bar an accident, IF he runs his race I’d be shocked if he was unplaced here. Hopefully that ensures I escape with a small profit at worst 

Vintage Clouds… I fancied this one for the big one last week, when he didn’t get in. Well, a couple of weeks before the race I had an EW bet at 50s, which seemed a bit big. He runs as if he has a staying handicap in him, with a decent effort at Chepstow to his name and at Cheltenham LTO. He’d have been close at Chepstow but for being badly hampered, losing his confidence, taking a fence home with him, before being raised for a final effort by Cook. He ran OK in this race last year but is a better horse this season, no doubt about that. He does jump better, or has done, so maybe that’s the mockers on him. Hopefully Danny can get him up there and popping away. He may well lose his position again,get outpaced, and stay on for 6th or something… but this race feels like plenty could fall in a hole here, and a horse that just keeps galloping may be enough- he should do that. Smith doesn’t have a great record in the race but from a small enough sample and this may be the best horse she has aimed at it. He may improve for the return to a decent surface and in fairness to him did show a turn of foot in that Aintree race, when all the fences up the home straight were dolled off. I’d be very annoyed if he won at 14s, unbacked!

Joe Farrell… it seems I can’t resist a 33s+ poke in a National and I wanted to keep those ‘long shot’ eyes ticking over! Out of the monster priced ones, 33s+, I thought he looked most interesting. Yes it is Curtis, who has had her problems, both professionally and personally I believe, but this would be some tonic. She can train, when getting the horses, but has had a torrid period. She hasn’t fired many darts recently but they have been going better. This one is young, unexposed, getting better over fences and ‘could be anything’. He does shape as if 3m, 3m4f+ could be right up his street. Clearly he may find this all a bit too much, the jumping may go to pot and he may be outclassed. But, were he to hold a position and pop away, he is no forlorn hope to my eyes. At least he is in form and could improve for the step up in trip. He could do anything here and he is the sort you want a big price on. This race just had an odd feel about it this year – with plenty of poor jumpers and proven non stayers to my eyes- so we shall see. 

Of the rest…

Silsol would be a sickener as he was my first instinct as to my fancy in this. I have had a decent saver on at a price. I suppose I liked his mark against his old hurdles rating and the fact he ran fairly well in the Welsh National. But, his best chase form is on Heavy and I wasn’t sure he would improve for good ground, even though he beat Native River on good over hurdles. I had a doubt as to his stamina and he was stuffed at Uttoxeter by Regal Flow. I couldn’t see any reason for him to improve on that, unless I have got his ground preference wrong- which could be the case. No forlorn hope but I just talked myself out of him. 

Ballyoptic… If he were a bigger price I may have been tempted- 14s didn’t seem overly generous given his small field chase form and concerns over his jumping. But Twister has a fine record in this and if he gets it altogether could improve for this distance and ground. An interesting unexposed one, esp given he has a touch of class. His jumping in this sort of test is the question. 

The Young Master… he is thrown in on old form but that’s because he has been badly out of sorts. He did show more the last day and I can see the case. He is getting on a bit mind in terms of chase runs although his Sandown efforts would give you hope for him staying. He wears Cheekpieces also, and those are 0/64,2p in this in the last decade – but Tiger Roll broke a CP stat in the National, and maybe this one (or one of the many others with CP on) will end that headgear hoodoo. He was on my longlist of 10, which was my ‘way in’ form him. I’m not sure I like Sam WC in these big handicap chases either, outside of races over the National fences! 

Clearly you can make a case for plenty more- it feels very very open this race, nothing would totally shock me. Vicente has a solid chance but PU LTO which puts me off at 10s. I have missed the boat with him in this race, and my eyes are generally fixed on 14s+ shots in races like this, or they try to be. If one of the other 4 on my shortlist of 6 wins then so be it, I was happy to leave them for one reason or another but I may have one of those wrong also! 

Now, time for an aspirin! What a puzzle, but it’s what this particular anorak lives for (in the context of racing, not life in general) 

GL with any bets, as always

Josh

 

 

Stats pointers below 

 

Scottish Grand National 

I have some stats pointers for this… 10/10 had 3-6 runs in prev 365 days, 3-6 runs this season, 1+ handicap win. Those are all 10/10 stats, which still leave a longlist of 18! Some indication of the stats definitely being a guide and not letting them put you off a fancy. 9/10 had RUN over 3m7f or further in their career (1/119,11p Had not) so we could use that. 

These four stats are 9/89 runners, 21p, +117 BFSP over the last decade and leave 10:

Vicente / Doing Fine / Vintage Clouds / The Young Master / Regal Flow / Silsol / Beware The Bear / Henri Parry Morgan / Get On The Yager / Straidnahanna 

9/10 did have 4-7 career wins (1/91,10p outside this, getting on to dodgy territory), but applying that would leave 6: 

Vicente (PU LTO a neg, 0/29,6p last decade) / Regal Flow / Beware The Bear / Henri Parry Morgan / Get On The Yager / Straidnahanna

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. ITV racing
    Ayr
    13:45 The Scotty Brand Handicap Steeple Chase
    Duke of Navan 8-1 ew, small ew Upsilon Blue 16-1

    14:20 The Dawn Homes Novices’ Championship Handicap Steeple Chase
    Braqueur D’Or 8-1 ew, Keeper Hill 10-1 could do well if getting round fell last 2 small ew

    14:55 The Qts Scottish Champion Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap)
    Verdana Blue 5-1 win, Beyond The Clouds 8-1 ew

    15:30 The Jordan Electronics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Steeple Chase
    Bigmartre 4-1 win

    16:05 The Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Steeple Chase
    you could make a case for half the field in this and i’ll take a chance with
    Ballyoptic and Vintage Clouds both 11-1 ew

    Newbury
    14:00 The Dubai Duty Free Finest Suprose Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes)
    Danehill Kodiac 13-2 win goes well fto

    14:35 The Dudai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes)
    can’t see past the favourite Gavota but 13-8 is a bit short for me, no bet

    15:10 The Greatwood Greenham Stakes
    no bet

    15:45 The Elite Racing Club Supporting Greatwood Handicap Stakes
    Taqdeer 9-1 ew

  2. Thirsk 1.55 ratings, Newbury report and photos and Bath comment.
    Thirsk 1.55
    Ratings
    1. Wasntexpectingthat
    2. Connaught Court, Smart Illusion
    No Bet, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Fahey 2nd string take this as we have no idea of his place in the pecking order.
    Interesting to see how The Great Heir goes as he is the first progeny of Pedro The Great.
    Newbury report and photos
    Here is the link for the pictures https://imgur.com/a/OjKIxVx
    Looking at them in the pre-parade although Well Done Fox was the a decent size and strongly made there was just the suggestion of too much condition on him. Added to this he was a bit colty. Despite this I thought he would be in the first three home. Glory Fighter , a decent size too. Dave Dexter lighter and more tubular but as can be seen in the pictures fitter than all but TheGreatestShowman who perhaps had a little less quality.
    1. Dave Dexter – A now type 2yo, did this easily but mostly a reflection of lack of fully tuned up opposition. 75
    2. Glory Fighter – Taller and more athletic, not quite as ready as DD 78
    3. The Greatest Showman – A good demonstration of the skills of Amy Murphy, a lwr med lesser type fully tuned and knowing its job. 73
    4. Azor Ahai – Small and narrow lesser Channon type got to its position by being better prepared and trundling through. 66
    5. Well Done Fox – disappointing that it did not stay on closer to the winning three although not given a hard time. Interesting to see if it was because he is a bit slow or if the Hannon 2yos are not as forward as hoped. If he goes to Goodwood or similar next then we will know he was just unready if he drops to Bath then it is because he is not much use and they want a quick win. I lean toward him being a good one. 78
    6. Greenback Boogie – Ordinary 65
    7. Pinaclouddown – Med size common, hopelessly green. 60
    8. Prince Llyr – Fat and ran as one would expect. Ok shape 62
    9. Wolstonbury – Neat and small, archetypal Kodiac shape in miniature. Still quite fat. Given an interesting ride and may be ok at a lowish level as he really is small. Possibly 65-68.
    10. Power Seeker – Ordinary. At least showed some early pace. Progress with racing 64
    Bath
    I ventured 1pt win on Sir Victor here and he finished stone last. Looked an ok size and set off well but very quickly dropped back. Maybe he couldn’t handle undulations or ground or something was amiss. Worth noting the good first run from an Eve Johnson-H horse. Last season they were needing a run, maybe this year they are more forward. The other two in my trifecta were Kinks who won and Temple of Wonder who like Sir Victor showed very little.
    -2pts from the race and one from the day before leaving a running total of 9.87 pts. Not bets today.
    Hugh

  3. Cheers for the write up Hugh, i’m backing both the Faheys and hoping for the bigger price going in as this type at this time of year do well historically. My only fear is the recent weather my turn the stats on there head as they might not be as ready as they have in previous seasons.

    1. I couldn’t resist a small ew on Dragon Beat. I expect Fahey will win it but was not suficiently positive about the Brocklesby to back the favourite.

  4. Scottish Grand National

    Going to start trying last 5 year trends seeing how it stood so well on last wks Aintree national.

    5/5 7 -11 y old
    5/5 137 – 146 (0/16 146+)
    5/5 graded run
    5/5 won at 3m half furlong +
    5/5 Same or up in trip from LTO
    5/5 least 6 chases
    5/5 5-6 season runs
    5/5 jockey ridden before
    5/5 btwn 4-7 career wins
    5/5 all won left handed
    0/18 Ran at Uttoxeter LTO
    0/20 pulled up LTO
    5/5 LTO 3rd + ( 1st/2nd LTO 0/41)

    Best 3 fits are Cogry/The young master/ Label des Obeaux
    I’ll back all 3 with 6 places available but main bet will be Label des obeaux ergo won the novice chase on this card last year from a 1lb higher.

    Scottish champion hurdle

    5/5 5-9 y old
    5/5 135 – 148
    5/5 under 11st1lb
    5/5 top 2 in last 3 runs
    5/5 listed+ run
    5/5 same or down in distance from LTO
    5/5 3-7 runs in a year
    5/5 Ran at distance
    5/5 not run before at track
    5/5 Ran in same or + class
    5/5 3-9 hurdles runs
    5/5 ran left handed LTO
    5/5 top 8 LTO

    Best picks Brelade ew and even though falling down on one trend Chesterfield who was pulled out of a race last week at Aintree to try for a repeat win in this race from last year on ground that will suit.

    Spring cup Newbury

    5/5 4-6 y old
    5/5 85 – 100 rated
    5/5 1 – 4 career wins
    5/5 no more than 3 hcap wins
    5/5 No win over class 2
    5/5 no headgear/ tongue tie
    5/5 top 4 finish in last 3
    5/5 Ran right handed or straight LTO ( left 0/20)
    5/5 ran in hcsp LTO
    5/5 3rd + LTO ( top 2 LTO 0/24)

    Best trend horse Taqdeer Ew

  5. NEWBURY SPRING CUP

    This was undoubtedly one of THE form races of last season. Almost everything that came out of the race went on to win / place ( at very good odds until everyone caught on ).

    My 3 against the field are LORD OF THE ROCK 28/1- STAR ARCHER 20/1- GRAPHITE STORM 22/1 all B365
    I am drawn to Lord of the Rock due to a jockey change (normally ridden by Mulrennan but SDS on board today)
    This takes me nicely to my next puzzlement……. SDS has 6 mounts today, ALL 14/1 or bigger ????
    May be worth small ew dbls / trbls etc

  6. Wow Joe Farrell 40/1!! Josh I don’t know how you do but just keep doing it. Thank you again for a fabulous day.

  7. Thanks Josh for the fantastic winner Joe Farrell. Although I’m kicking myself for backing it only in place market at BSP 9. I often do that because I expect one of the lower priced selections to win and the ultra long shot to place. I also backed Ballyoptic which lost by the nose.

  8. As always I backed all the selections and had Joe Farrell £10 win at 50/1 on the exchanges. Definitely worth a drink tonight!!!

    Step forward Lord Josh, excellent effort.

  9. Thanks all. That was exhilarating! My own shortlist of 6 including the top 3 and thankfully the pin landed on the right one,just! I’m off out for the evening to a party, i may be a tad groggy tomorrow but I’ll be back in the morning…certainly with members post,no idea if anything on free post! Couldn’t tell you what meetings are on tomorrow as I type!
    Enjoy your Sat evening. This has been a tipping period for the ages,I doubt I’ll ever repeat it. (I’ll try)Truly mad 7 weeks or so. So,we’d best enjoy it!

  10. Josh, I have no idea how you found that one, effectively a flat bred horse that had never been beyond 3 miles for a Trainer too many had unfairly written off. The work of a GENIUS!. Fantastic effort, well done, #respect and all the praise fully deserved and justified. Have a bonzer night!

  11. well done Josh what a price //keep doing this i can see your name in next years honours list ONCE AGAIN THANKS

  12. Given I was getting 50/1 with bet boost, I thought I’d go e/w. Excellent result! Nice one Josh. Thanks!

  13. Terrific result Josh…..i was otherwise indisposed but what a fantastic result….No arguments Josh, as the song goes…’Your simply the Best….lol
    Well done lad.

    Tony Mc.

  14. Hi Josh (or should we now call you Dosh ), due to a hectic day I missed your update with the national selections and your email, but well done to you on yet another fantastic selection for site followers.

    Chris R.

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