Members Daily Post: 21/04/18 (complete)

NOTES x4, Section 1 (comp) , Ayr pointers, Test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Bangor 

3.20 – Ofcourseiwill (m1+m2) H3 I3 G3 5/2 S4  2nd 

3.55 – 

Cowslip (m1) H1 9/2  UP

Robert De Bruce (m1) 8/1  UP

 

Ayr 

4.05 – Vicente (m1) 14,30  9/1  4th 

 

FLAT 

Newbury 

5.30 – Pivoine (micro dist) 14, w1 w2 H1 I3 5/1 S2 UP

 

Thirsk 

2.30 – 

Suitcase N Taxi (4yo+ hncps) 20/1 UP

Ventura Secret (micro going) 14 14/1  UP 5/1 

Benjamin Thomas (micro dist) 14/1 UP

Indian Pursuit (micro dist) G3 20/1 UP

Start Time (micro going/age) G3 14/1 3rd 20/1 

Mr Orange (micro going/age)  20/1 WON 20/1>18/1

4.15 – 

Dance King (4yo+ hncps) w2 H1 G3 18/1 S2 S6 UP 25/1 

Mister Belvedere (micro TJC/going) 14 16/1 UP

5.55 – 

Captain Bond (4yo+)  18/1  UP

Naples Bay (micro dist/class) 12/1  3rd

Star Cracker (micro class) I3 20/1  UP

 

Nottingham

4.35 – 

Coiste Bodhar (all hncps + micro class) I3 12/1  3rd

Sir Geoffrey (all hncps + micro class) 11/1  UP

7.15 – 

Boots And Spurs (all hncps)  28/1  UP

Music Seeker (all hncps) 16/1 UP

Mr Tyrrell (micro TJC) 14/1 UP

Prying Pandora (micro dist) I3 10/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 5/57,19p, +3.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +102)

NOTES

2.30 Thirsk 

Suitcase N Taxi – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

Ventura Secret – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP 

Bugger… Mr Orange! Ah, had a run, drop in trip, back down in trip, turf, below last winning mark, drawn low in 1, 1st time visor…always clearer post race, gone with a couple of younger ones… annoying. Onwards. Hopefully some of you wiser than I with that one. 

4.35 Notts

Coiste Bodhar –  1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 

2.55 Ayr 

Beyond The Clouds – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) 

 

… using my Section 1 qualifiers as a starting point, which as you know are based on the trainer behaviour and nothing to do with the horse! That’s where the ratings pointers help and/or our subjective eyes, digging down to see if any are worthy of support. In case I need to remind anyone DO NOT just back every horse listed in Section 1 – that will not end very well at all! 

Suitcase N Taxi – I am not sure how well Easterby’s are going but this horse went very close to winning on his reappearance last year. He handles cut I think and races prominently. When there is juice in this ground at Thirsk (although should dry out a tad I suspect) it is ofter the low drawn that do best. The stalls are in the middle today so it may not matter and who knows what the ground staff may have done in the off season. Like many sprints it could just be all about where the pace is/what the jockeys do/the bias they have in their own heads, real or otherwise. There is some pace high, but plenty low and the two selections should be up there. SNT has the ability to feature here and at 16s I thought worth a stab. 

Ventura Secret- is just interesting having left Tim Easterby. The trainer’s horses are going well and they drop this one back to 6f, having been made into a miler by Tim. In his younger days he’d have had the pace for this and I just thought, given he often races up there, that this drop in trip was fascinating. Dodds can ready one after a break and at this track. I like the jockey also, very good for his 3lb claim. I thought there was plenty to like at double figures. Doing a few things differently with the ability to feature, and like many 4 year olds may have developed plenty from last season – or not. We shall find out! 

I struggled to make a case for the other qualifiers in the race, most coming after breaks also, but the odd niggle about the form of the Quinn/Midgley yards but they have both had a few placed horses in recent days. I won’t fall off my seat if one goes in but none are carrying my money, given no strategy qualifiers, and you can’t back them all. I will live with getting it wrong, while dragging myself over hot coals over what I missed etc etc, as per usual! Coping with missing winners/profits is all part of the game here, given ‘our’ approach. 

Coiste Bodhar – he shows up well on Geegeez Instant Expert as being well suited to all race conditions and does run well here. He won off 64 here once (with a claimer on I think) but comes here off 52. He has ran well here off 56 also. He arrives here fit, in some sort of form, and races prominently. His last turf win was over CD in C6 I think. He returns to turf and drops back in class here, all reasons for him notching up another win. I thought 11s was well worth a play given all of that. There are no excuses for him today. albeit he is a horse I have never got right, so he has that going for him!!

Beyond The Clouds… I flicked through my stats pointers for this as per the report below, noting that all winners were sent off 12s or shorter which may be some guide, and the top 3 in the weights didn’t have the best of records, and Henderson was 0/11,2p in the race… I suppose they were reasons for taking on his runners in this- although given the rating of the top weight this year/how far ahead, maybe 2nd or 3rd in weights does better this time around. Anyway, Beyond The Clouds looked big at 15/2 to my eyes and I just like the fact he brings a different profile to the party. Getting in the winning habit is no bad thing and I’d like to think this has been a target. A flat track and good ground should be right up his street here. He really is in the ‘could be anything’ category and Ryan has been in decent form on the flat. Him winning would keep up the trend of a different trainer winning this for each of the last 10 runnings. I was happy to roll the dice. I’d fear Claimantakinforgen or whatever his name is, for Henderson – Beyond beat him well enough at Musselburgh when they both may not have liked soft. Maybe the form will be reversed here and he is worth a saver, but Beyond The Clouds will do. I should mention Flying Tiger who I tipped LTO… he was too keen on heavy at Cheltenham, game over. IF he settles here and has a pace to aim at, he could take this. Nick Williams’ look to be going off the boil a tad though, but with the 7lb claim of Chester he does look thrown in a bit. I’d have this between those three. 

That’s the lot for today’s pokes. 

+6 points was a decent enough return yesterday. A good start and then it all went downhill a tad! A shame Chapel Stile wasn’t 10/1 in the morning, rather than 7s, as my pin may have landed on him from the trends shortlist, and clearly I picked the wrong one between him and Bob as a saver. Had either of those been 10s in the morning I’d have tipped them I suspect but more positives there than negatives. The rest of my efforts at Ayr were a bit naff- I didn’t have a penny on Value At Risk. 

4.40 Ayr… I will just mention… I have no real way in and didn’t have the time/desire to analyse it properly.. Given Henderson’s record in the race you would be drawn to his.. I have been tracking BURBANK for a while and have had a small go at 7/1, just in case he wins. He does need to step up but I clocked his run at the 2017 Festival in a G1, and his run this season at Ascot, in headgear, when the soft blunted his speed over the last/he got tired. I think I tipped him that day on here. I just thought a strong pace, flat track, good ground, may see him to much better effect at some point, and one day he will show himself to be well handicapped over hurdles. But I haven’t looked at the race in any depth. 

I think that’s it for today. 

GL with any bets. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

3.20 Bang – Ofcourseiwill (m2/3) 3rd

3.55 Bang – Robert De Bruce (m2/3) DNQ

3.55 Bang – Cowslip (m3) UP

4.40 Ayr – Clondaw Kaempfer (m2) DNQ

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

5.00 Bang – Extra Bold UP

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

2.20 Ayr – Crosshue Boy DNQ  WON 22/1 

4.05 Ayr – Glencam View UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Scottish National Meeting Report/Notes: READ HERE>>>

Day 2

‘Qualifiers/Starting Points’ 

1.45 – Dolos / Ashoka 

2.20 – Mr Mix / Braqueur D’Or

2.55 – Claimantakinforgan /Charli Parcs / Ch’tibello 

3.30 – Adrien Du Pont / Cobra De Mai 

4.05 – Vicente / Silsol / Gold Present / Bewarethebear

4.40 –

William Henry / Burbank / Soul Emotion (three Hendo horses, I think this is the race he is 3/6,5p last decade…not sure if this is a ‘I will be adding to those stats’ type move with three runners, or a ‘throwing mud and hoping some sticks’!)

Curious Carlos / Whatduhavtoget / Moon Racer

5.15 – Big Robin / Comrade Conrad 

5.50 – Igor / New Moon 

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From Free post…

TIPS

Scottish Grand National 

Ragal Flow – 1 point EW – 25/1 (gen, 1/4 odds 5th places gen, will be declared to that) 

Vintage Clouds – 1 point win – 14/1 

Joe Farrell – 1 point win – 40/1 (lad/Betf) 33/1 (gen) 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Just looking at the hosses above.

    Got a good word for, FOR JIM in the 3.55
    VINCENTE has age against him and needs a career best
    2.30 Thirsk.
    Benjamin Thomas. stable out of form
    Start time no places over distance
    4.35 Nott
    Sir geoffrey no wins over distance
    stable mate Cloiste Bodhar looks spot on here. Only problem is ruth carrs hoss drawn on rail which will probably lead, a good asset. but at 20s worth an EW bet.

  2. Friday’s Early Season Maidens
    3.00 Newbury – Lah Ti Dar – WON at 4.90
    3.00 Newbury – White Light – 8th at 5.00

    1/2 for +2.76pts ==> 3/16 (18.75% SR) for -3.59pts ( -22.44% ROI)

    Saturday’s Qualifiers :
    1.25 Newbury – Team Decision
    1.55 Thirsk – Smart Illusion
    5.40 Nottingham – Jamih

  3. Busy day tomorrow:

    Silsol Ayr Saturday 16:05 1pt e/w-Keeps dropping down in weight despite running well and is now a stone lower than his hurdles over fences. Has a solid record on good ground and in April. Hits Josh’s Nicholls stats. Given Cobden has been basically the Tizzard no. 1 its interesting he picks this over his bosses runners (obviously Puppy would have had the choice over the Potts 2 but you would have still expected him to be on one of the others) He is 1/1 at the track and 4/9,5p on flat tracks. Fairly confident he stays and considering everything he is a ridiculous price.
    Requinto Dawn Thirsk Saturday 15:40 1pt e/w-One of only 4 race fit here. On top of that he ran well in the biggest 2yr old handicaps having not quite gotten home over the 6f and looks fairly treated on that run. Fahey has an excellent record in 3yr old handicaps at the track. There is generally a draw bias to those drawn high at Thirsk not to mention the fact most of the pace appears to be drawn high. Looked an excellent e/w bet.
    Forest Bihan Ayr Saturday 13:45 1pt e/w-I’ve been waiting for him to return to good ground since I think he is a borderline group horse as he had shown at Aintree last year and when beating Simply Ned in the Autumn. Back down to his last winning mark I thought he had an excellent chance taking this.
    Hadley Thirsk Saturday 17:55 1pt e/w-Once again one of only 6 who have had the benefit of a recent run. One of the most consistent horses in training he has never been out of the places in handicaps on the flat (and only 4 times out of 16 in handicaps overall) and has an easy win at the track as well as a 2nd, 3rd and 4th here the latter was in this race last year. Jockey rides the track well. Drawn on the right side and should be in the shake up.
    Flying Tiger Ayr Saturday 14:55 1pt e/w-I probably don’t have the mental scars from this horse yet but as many have said before I am convinced he is extremely well treated and needs a strong pace so will give him one chance to prove so. Two of the last 4 races have been won by jockeys claiming 7lbs so the jockey booking was interesting. Probably the least solid out of the five but I thought if putting his best forward he must have an excellent chance.

    1. Decided to add one more:
      Taqdeer Newbury 15:45 1pt e/w-Just sticks out like a group horse in a handicap. Was badly drawn and having first run for 600+ days on ground softer than ideal but should come on for the run. In his previous start in May he beat a horse now rated 115 with all the rest all now in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Gosden and Frankie are 3/8, 7p in handicaps at the track in the past 2 yrs and 14/46, 28p overall in that time. There appears to be much more drawn high.

      1. Good decision Nick with another nice winner, and very nearly another with your last selection, but a couple of good places nonetheless.

        Chris R.

    2. Oh bloomin eck Nick, just noticed we are in the same camp with SILSOL and TAQDEER, out the back of the tv they go…haha! Didn’t notice early doors, just do my write ups then post…

  4. SizingCodelco 4.05 jock 5off Tizard never won at ayr
    I think Burbank 9s now or wiliam henry
    newbury 3.45 Born To Be Alive 26s same mark like in donc
    Humbert 13s 4lb higher than in donc

  5. Morning, Sorry about no write ups yesterday, had the grandson round and had to take him to school before work, so, was rather stressed, which then meant i was rushing and posted up some right ecky thumps!!
    Mark Coton always used to say “Beware your mood!!”, yesterday was one of them and i wasn’t fully concentrating.
    Onto today, we have some really nice races to get our teeth into, the Scottish National is a real conundrum, but, i for one look at it as though “I can maybe narrow this down to three or four?!”. So here goes..
    16:05 AYR
    VICENTE 10/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Obvious pick i here you say…well, he ticks all the boxes, ground, track, distance, fresh, jockey, trainer etc. need i go on, he is, as the purists say, that much of a good thing!! He will now finish out the back of the tv never to be seen again..haha!
    DOING FINE 11/1 gen 1pt ew
    Another of the good things, most of his value has now gone, but, don`t let that put you off backing him 11/1 is still value..This has been the long-time plan for out-and-out Neil Mulholland trained stayer Doing Fine who wants a strongly run race over 4 miles on Good ground and he should get all of those today. He was last seen making late headway from rear over 3M 5f at Sandown in December but couldn’t catch the leaders and hopefully the extra yardage today will allow him to get there. He is coming back from a 4 month break but goes well fresh and with conditions perfect and Noel Fehily back in the saddle he shouldn’t be far away.
    SILSOL 25/1 gen 1 pt ew
    A Nice Dark Horse for the Scottish Grand National is Silsol, Trained by Top National Hunt Trainer Paul Nicholls he looks outstanding value to take this prestigious event worth a cool £122,000 to the Winner.
    Fifth in Welsh National and fourth in Midlands National has the pedigree, Stamina and Course form winning in only previous showing here at Ayr back in April 2014.
    Massive Value at 25/1. He is in the HPM camp, having burnt my fingers a couple of times this year with him, I think this is his race to lose, we shall see…
    15:45 NEWBURY
    TAQDEER 10/1 gen
    Ran well on his return after being off for nearly 2 years when 7th in the Spring mile at Doncaster, if there is no bounce factor he can run a huge race here as that surely will have him spot on. Well drawn in 16 and with that run under his belt,the 5 year old looks nicely weighted for a stable whos horses come on for their run.
    REPERCUSSION 16/1 gen
    lto was traveling well in to the race then got squeezed out or would of finished 2nd imo, since the tongue tie has been fitted it has improved and seemed to enjoy the big field handicap and looks a good bet at 16/1.

    14:30 THIRSK wouldn`t normally entertain this track, but, two horses caught my eye in this one…
    VENTURA SECRET 16/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Had a relatively productive season last year and if in the mood could be very dangerous. Michael Dods has certainly wasted no time in sending him sprinting.3lb claimer up and odds are very much value!!
    KODY RIDGE 18/1 gen 1pt ew
    Is an inconsistent sort, but, runs one good then bad race, hoping today is his good race, back on grass he should run well and Roger Fell is a decent enough trainer around these Northern tracks!

  6. Kicking myself for not putting Ocean Cove up yesterday given Fergal’s record at Ayr and his strike rate with Geraghty, 10/1 was a no brainer and I didn’t have a penny on either. Decided although Fegals record was good at the track, he was 0/4 in the April meeting, so some logic and 1 less lash of the recently under used Opus Dei whip!

    Anyway onwards and upwards, today I like Hikmaa in the 2.35 @ Newbury. Vaughn is 2/2 at the track the last 2 years, the horse has won at the track previously and beaten better horses than the rest on bare ratings. Interesting that Frankie is in the plate for the first time.

  7. 7.15 Nottingham Mooltazem 1point ew 10/1 betvictor
    One that has been in my tracker since finishing a close second over c/d last October.
    That day on Good to Soft he battled all the way to the line and was closing against a very gutsy front runner who found more when being challenged.
    The 2 of them pulled a couple of lengths clear of the rest.
    Maratha who was 3rd that day has since run 10 times winning twice and placing 7 giving the form a solid enough look.

    Mooltazem got a 2lb rise for that but is still open to lots of improvement after being gelded over the winter.

    Today he is drawn out wide in 14 but looking at the pace angle, he raced prominently here previously and the pace looks likely to be mid to high so hopefully they can get in front of the inside drawn horses and he can get a decent tow into a good challenging position and with the expected improvement get very competitive at the finish.

    Its a competitive race and Gosden has a potentially well handicapped improver but its 4/1 and Mooltazem is 10/1

  8. Tips – we had a 7/2 winner yesterday and 2 losers and so gained 3 points and we are +4 points for April to date.
    1.45 Ayr Forest Bihan, 1 pt each way at 8/1 – the class horse in the race. carrying a fair bit of weight but can go well here.
    4.05 Ayr Doing Fine, 1 pt each way at 11/1. Laid out for this and the trainer does well in the spring and early summer.

    Good luck.

  9. Well done josh with joe farrel a bloody good winner at a cracking price too. also nick @ the rest of you guys who keep supplying the winners.Keep it up boys

  10. Josh

    You really are the business, in a pub up in Ayr and loads have backed the winner.
    Don’t think I’ll be buying another drink today.

    Cheers Mark

  11. I had that many on, what with sp2a, only managed a couple of quid each way, got a profit back, which, considering i backed about 9, i did well…..Well done Josh!!!

  12. Hi all,
    many thanks, I’d have taken that before the start of the day, but such is my annoying ‘never 100% happy’ attitude I’m a bit annoyed still at Mr Orange haha. But that was prob a consequence of spending so much time on National, which paid off. On we march.

    Sunday’s post will be up Sunday morning, who knows when, by 11am. I’m off to a party.

    enjoy your evening,
    Josh

  13. Rouergate Market Rasen 15:00 1.5pt win Will post more later once Josh has today’s post up but this one getting backed.

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