Members Daily Post: 18/04/18 (complete)

‘Festival Tips’ (complete), Section 1, +Chelt ‘through the card notes’ + craven notes + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Cheltenham

2.40 – 

Art of Payroll (all hncps + m2) w2 14/1 S2  2nd 20/1 

Voix D’Eau (all hncps + m2) 16/1 S2A  UP

Go Conquer (m1) H1 I3 G1 10/1 S1 S2 S4 S5 UP

3.15 – Ballymountain Boy (all hncps) 25/1 S2A UP

4.25 – 

What A Knight (all hncps) 14/1 S2 2nd 

Buckle Street (all hncps) w1 I3 16/1 S2A S5  UP

As I See It (all hncps) w1 20/1 S2A  UP

Terry The Fish (m1/m1) 20/1 S2A UP

Lithic (m1) 25/1 S2A UP

Steely Addition (m1) w2 w1 6/1  UP

5.00- Another Hero (m1)  11/1 S2  WON 11/1>8/1 

5.30 – 

Capitaine (m1) (hncp h debut) w2 14,30 H1 I3 5/1  UP

Amour De Nuit (m1) 14,30 H1 I1 G3 5/1 S4   UP

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FLAT 

Newmarket 

1.50 – Eastern Impact (micro dist) I3 9/1  3rd

4.10 – Stings of Life (1st 2YO) 14,30 11/4  WON 11/4>2/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/51,18p, -1.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +109)

NOTES

NONE.. i think there is enough going on across the board 🙂

Hopefully the Festival Tips run well and there is a winner or two in the pile, and the Craven qualifiers run with credit below and build on yesterday’s good start. Hopefully one or two of you used them as starting points and landed on the odd winner for interest stakes, or maybe more. 

 

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‘Festival’ Tips 

(this will be all for Festival Tips…5 pokes below, 5 points bet) 

 

2.40 Chelt

Cepage – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP (strange run,ran with promise for most part,did sweat up plenty, has done that before, but hasn’t finished his race off today..maybe he does just want it pan flat)

3.15 Chelt 

Verni – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/WH/BetfS) 9/1 (gen) UP

Stick To The Plan – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP

 

4.25 Chelt

WhatAKnight – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd 

Bucklestreet – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

 

write ups…

2.40 –

Cepage looks the most interesting in this to me, and at 8/1 I couldn’t resist. Venetia is 2/8 in the race and her yard are in the best form they have been in for quite some time. 6 year olds are 5/13 runners,7p in this race also, and FR bred 6 YO, 3/9,5p (a pos for Frodon and Pipe’s also) I just thought his last win was so so impressive. Officially he didn’t win by much but he has won with so much in hand there. That was his first proper run at that trip, in a strongly run race, showing an impressive turn of foot at the end. I’d like to think this track may suit more, esp the climb to the line, but until they try you never know. He did jump well the last day but I have a small niggle that he may prefer going RH, albeit he did hack up at Newbury early in his chase career. It could be he goes to the right a little bit, but I thought given all the other positives 8s was fair. He is only 2/8 over fences and at this trip, and maybe even on better ground, there could be so much more to come in time, hopefully today.

Kalondra is a danger, but happy to take him on at 5s or so given the break and the big field- the latter/a strong pace, may see him to even better effect and the yard are going well. So, no shock. Frodon has a touch of class but has to prove he is up to this mark. He did hack up three starts ago and was then pitched in the deep end the last twice, so will appreciate this. I can see the case, but thought Cepage is open to more progress as a handicapper in these conditions. But, it would be an impressive win for him to take this off 160.

Go Conquer hits a few stats above, inc S4…could be dangerous if he gets an easy lead and if you follow said strategies then there is no reason not to back him at 10s or so… my head thought the handicapper may have him now and this may happen to quickly for him… and the 3 at the top of the market look far more interesting, but if getting into a rhythm on the front he should just keep going. No forlorn hope nor total shock but something may have too much toe for him up the hill. Possibly. Quite By Chance is an intriguing long shot…although he somehow needs to bounce back to his very best and needs 3/4 others to under-perform. An interesting 33s poke though and I suspect some big big odds players have had a go. The money for Jameson makes some sense also. But, happy enough with Cepage at the prices.

3.15 –

Verni…you will see below in Sec 4 that he hits my main stats and actually hits all of my further pointers (no claiming jock/top 2 LTO, 2m5f or less LTO), the only one to do so. Given that Hobbs is 3/8 in the race, and he was 9s+, i have kept it as simple as that really. There has been one winner of this in last decade than ran in a novice chase LTO and he does have a decent Festival 2nd to his name, in the Martin Pipe. Maybe a big field around here, on better ground, is what he wants. He is lightly raced for his age and you would assume will be better than this mark one day (but you can say that about plenty in here, packed full of lightly raced sorts and so many that have been off the track for an age). He does also have race fitness on his side, which could prove vital given the number returning from breaks. The Hobb’s horses continue to run in and out but there have been enough glimmers of light and plenty of recent poor performances could be down to heavy ground. Anyway, happy to throw a dart at him.

Graasten… non runner, replaced with…

Stick To The Plan… he was high up on my list for this, but I fancied the Hobbs’ horse more at the top end, given his place on my stats/Hobbs’ record, and I wanted a big priced poke also…but that one is a NR so I have thrown this one in… Skelton does well at this meeting and in handicaps, as per the notes below. This one also has 8 career runs which is a positive on that most random of stats below. He is unexposed and this trip around here could be ideal. He went well for a long way over 3m here 3 starts back, looking to run out of stamina to my eyes. He returned at Kempton after 3 months of or so, could come on for what was a decent enough run, and is fresher than some, which is no bad thing at this time of year. He gets first time CP and back on decent ground, should have plenty in hand – whether he shows that to be the case today, we shall see, but he will be winning more handicaps one day. (you could say that for plenty in here mind) I thought 10s was fair enough and with any luck one wins for a +9 points on the race.

Qualando and Ballymountain Boy look the most intriguing of the big priced ones.

4.25

Well no race stats/trends to help with this one really so I thought i’d focus on the list of TTP stats qualifiers in Section 1…  at the prices and based on their profiles, they looked the most interesting…

What A Knight… has plenty of decent runs to his name and is handicapped to go in again now. All of his best form has been on a decent surface which is hasn’t face for his last three starts and there are enough good runs in C2s to suggest he can go close here, back on decent ground. I have a niggle that he may be a flat track horse but there could be valid excuses for his 5 runs here to date. I do wonder if he will get up this hill but at 12s, I was happy to take a dart given it isn’t conclusive as yet and there are plenty of other positives.

Buckle Street… he looked a shade big at 16s given he was in such good form when last seen, is very consistent, races prominently, there could still be more to come over this trip, and this could well have been a target…i hope so. This isn’t a strong C2 and I just thought he is likely to give his running. He is only 5 still and he always just stays on over this trip. If a1 here, I thought he could go close, and was worth a dart, especially as his trainer has had a handful of winners at this meeting previously also.

You can no doubt make a case for plenty of others, it’s that sort of race. There are plenty of unexposed ones in here but I wonder if many are not hardy enough yet, for a challenge like this.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

5.00 Chelt – What Happens Now (m1) UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.05 Chelt – Poetic Rhythm (m1) UP

3.15 Chelt – KK Lexion (m1) UP

3.50 Chelt – Winter Lion (m3) WON 10/1>8/1

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

5.30 Chelt – Going Gold UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Newmarket Craven Notes

Craven Meeting trainer pointers : Read/download/print HERE>>>

Day 1… 3/11,4p,+4 ,  doing their job of highlighting the odd horse of interest…inc a 40/1 second (60.00 BF) which very nearly won…

Day 2 

1.50 – Shanghai Glory UP / Mont Kiara

2.25 – Anna Nerium WON 25/1! 33.00 BFSP!

3.00 – Euginio UP

3.35 – Billsdon Brook UP /Nawassi UP

4.45 – Rococo 3rd

5.20 – Asoof 3rd/ Mythical Queen UP

5.55 – Old Persian WON 3/1/ Bow Street UP / Regimented  UP/ Casey jones UP

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Cheltenham 2 Day Meeting

 

Cheltenham 2 Day April 2018

Those trainers with 5 or more winners at the last 5 meetings…

Nicky Henderson

45 bets / 6 wins / 14p / 13% sr / -16 SP / -12 BFSP / AE 0.75

  • Top 2 LTO: 5/17,7p, +12
  • 1 win this season: 5/23,7p, +6
  • Ran in C4/5/6 LTO: 4/12,5p, +16

Fergal O’Brien

17 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 29% sr / +35 SP / +54 BFSP

Phillip Hobbs

37 bets / 5 wins / 10p / 13% sr / -11 SP / -10 BFSP / AE 1.00

  • Class 2: 4/16,4p, +1
  • Distance move: up 0.5/1/1.5f : 4/10,5p, +11

Dan Skelton

18 bets / 5 wins / 9p / 28% sr / +8 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 1.63

  • Handicaps: 3/11,6p, +12
  • 7 or 8 career runs: 4/5,4p, +11

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Cheltenham

3.15

The stats for this are only useful to a point but…

10/10 carried 11-2 or less (0/36,6p,11-3+…not the strongest)

9/10 had 1-3 career wins

8/10 max distance run in career between 2m4f-2m5f

Those three combined give you 8/32 runners, 13p last decade, +72.

They leave 8: Verni UP/ Lisheen Prince UP/ Azeerti 2nd 33/1/ Brave Eagle UP/Mahlervous UP / Champagne Express WON 20/1  / Graasten NR / The Welsh Paddies UP

Other pointers.. well Hobbs is 3/8,3p in this, Henderson 0/12,2p. Claiming jockeys are 0/30,3p, 6/10 were Top 2 LTO, 10/10 ran over 2m5f or shorter LT) (only 0/26,7p did not, tenuous). Those that had 60+ days off are 0/22,4p, but there are so many of them this year returning after breaks, maybe a fresh one will take it.

Tips above in Section 2

4.25

There is no help here, the stats offer little… 10/10 had 2-4 career wins, 10/10 0-2 handicap wins… that was it, and they leave a list of 14! Paul Nicholls is 3/10,6p in this, so maybe just a case of backing his! Some pondering, but it may be a case of tipping for tipping’s sake, and attacking a race like that ‘cold’ never usually ends well for me. But, we shall see.

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Cheltenham ‘through the card notes’

2.05 – usually goes to one of top 2 in market, Favs have a very good record. I probably wouldn’t look past top 2 if track-side/playing placepot, but I say that based on history of the race. Henderson has won 3 of the last 5

2.40 – Cepage a Tip above. I think one of top 3 in market takes this, and he is by far the most fascinating to my eye. Go Conqueur hits a few strategies and I had saver on just in case although my head struggled to make much of a case, but that’s the point in systematic strategies! He could get an easy lead if he has the pace, just whether he can stay there/the handicapper has him/something with more in hand rocks up.

3.15 – tips above, Verni / Stick To The Plan… of the biggies, well Ballymountain Boy is an S2A qualifier at 25s, and MK does well here. The break is a concern as is whether he will be anywhere near good enough, but if you want a biggie to have a poke at, he’d be top of that list, now the Moore horse is a NR…. I should mention Qualando, who is intriguing on old form and this trainer can ready one. So, maybe there are two there of interest if you want a tickle on bigger priced ones, esp if going to the track today.

3.50 – Red Infantry / Tintern Theatre look most interesting to me at the prices, pref for the former

4.25- tips above, What A Knight / Buckle Street … nothing else really jumped out at me… Head To The Stars maybe at 14s, Daly has won this before I think. I couldn’t see a Jonjo horse winning and they are all weak in market/have questions to answer, maybe I wouldn’t die in shock if one went in but they are not carrying any of my money as yet.

5.00-  TIPS on FREE post… Lovely Job 13/2 and What Happens Now 7/1, 1.5 point win on each.

5.30 – Amour De Nuit... seems to be a lot of love for him on these pages, and he is an S4 qual to boot, and he would seem the most interesting at the top end. I’ve had a good go, so that’s him done for, sorry Nick et al.  A small tickle on Oxford Blu for team Geegeez at 10s maybe, if you want a bigger priced one for interest. ADN’s stablemate, Capitaine, may give him most to think about if fit here, but maybe he is here for the run/PN has something in mind.

I think that’s the lot!

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All complete…

That is a busy day, but, if you follow any ‘tipping content’ (Section 2, ‘notes’ + ‘Festival’ Tips + Free Tips- 3m+ chases) at least we have plenty to play with from the last 40 odd days, +155 points or so. 8 points bet across the board today on ‘Tips’, with any luck there is at least one winner to cover them all and make a small profit!

There is one Jumps S1 qualifier in Section 1 and 2x S4, for any following those. Plenty of S2As, which as you know I am tracking, and with any luck in the months ahead that will cement itself as a worthy big odds jumps strategy.

And, plenty of other pointers above in section 4 to use/ignore as you see fit, inc at Newmarket, where with any luck there will be a nice priced winner or two on that list of Craven Quals.

Good luck with any bets, and remember it’s all about the long term, and on days like this, ‘less can be more’ 🙂

Josh

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Josh, out are probably sick of me already and I promise the questions/harassment will stop after today.
    Firstly a note to say how much I am enjoying the site. learnt so much within a short amount of time and can only see this improving. Seems like the contributors (except me obviously) are a great bunch.
    From my early musings I have decided to paper trial S1, S4 and S6 as well as traf69s 2-4 yo in April/May and Nick Mazurs tips.
    Do you think that’s a good place for start or any suggestions for tweaking/adding?
    Thanks again, I’ll get back to just reading and learning from you experts now

    1. Hi Chris,

      I’ll hijack the question while Josh is busy with Chelt!
      Since 1st Feb I’ve been following S1,S3A, S4 & S5 + Nick’s & Josh’s tips. In that period I’m up 141 pts on those selections alone. I didn’t back all of Josh’s festival tips blind (to my detriment) but still excellent profit in that short period.
      Hopefully Section 1 finishes the NH season with a bang in the next few weeks similar to the end of the Flat last Sept/Oct. Hope that helps.

    2. Josh’s and Nick’s tips are going well and well worth including. In regard to ‘paper trading’ what would be its purpose? The thing is that if paper trading went well would you be able to stick with the same principles when you start backing them with your own cash? That is the step you have to make and have the bank roll to do it to cope with a losing run. Would it not be best to start with minimal bets, £2.50 is an amount Josh does mention, instead of paper trading, to add reality to the bets, so you feel the joy and agony of winning and losing at low stakes? Just a suggestion.
      What I do is monitor 50 different angles/micros/tipsters and back which ones make a regular decent profit, say around 5 or 6 normally. So I do paper trade but for a purpose.

      1. The main reason I waa considering paper trading was because I have been ‘stung’ that many times following tipsters that didn’t end up suiting me for one reason or another – whether it be unachievable prices on their selections, excessive number of selections, long bad runs which are counteracted by one good month ever 5/6 months and many other things which deterred me from backing them in the future. I don’t regret leaving most of them generally and have put these bad experiences down to the learning curve of this ride.

        The point I am trying to make is that I wanted to make sure that these systems were definitely for me in the absence of itemised results (though if anyone has them that would be great). I am fairly certain that everything I am reading here is a level above my usual sources but I just wanted to see for myself before I committed my hard cash. The 2.50 staking is a good idea and something I may consider.

        At present I follow 4 systems all at £25 a point. They all boast of ROIs in excess of 25% and are all very impressive. I have 2.5k bank and look to increase my stake 10% at regular intervals and increase the bank accordingly when stakes are increase and then skim the profits.. It has worked for me so far and I hops the knowledge of this place will help me to fine tune it and get better. Any advice gladly received

        1. OK that makes sense. A couple of pieces of advice. Set a timescale to follow a system or a tipster, good or bad, say 3 to 6 months, and so give whoever or whatever a decent timescale to perform in. Also paper trade at the rate you will start actual betting at, so in your case say £25 or lower it to paper trade. I can vouch for Josh and Nick’s tips in the loner term being profitable form this site. Maybe track Colin and Stewart as well if it on paper only?

        2. I note from Chris Sengalow that you are betting 25 per point on 4 systems of a bank of 2.5K or 100 points or 25 points per system. That is wholly overtstaking in my view unless you have a massive strike rate. If you have a 30% strike rate (highly impressive in itself) you will hit a losing run of 19 bets every 1000 bets which is pretty close to your bank for one system. Money management is second only to getting value prices consistently. I back 25 a point of a bank of 8K to put your numbers into some context and thats of a strike rate of 21%

          1. Thanks for the reply Brian and I have no doubt you are right. I have had suspicions I may have been overstaking for a while but because it has worked out I have just rode it.
            Although I do 4 systems I have picked 4 that their records show are consistent monthly.
            One of the systems is only one bet per day (stat of the day from Geegeez) and one of them I only do 15 pound per point so it may not be as extreme as I first posted.
            I am going down to 3 systems from next month and that includes SOTDs one tip a day. I have faith in their consistency but perhaps I am being naive and I will definitely take your comments on board and focus on having a more substantial bank. I had a horrible first 2 weeks of March which gave me a welcome scare about bank management and your words have made that hit home further so thanks

    3. More questions the better as far as i’m concerned Chris, esp if you are new! I’m quite aware it can take a while to immerse yourself, work out what the hell is going on here, and plot a route forward that you find both enjoyable, profitable..and that also leaves you mental capacity to think for yourself/back your own horses- whether that is using the info I provide as starting points or whatever – as they are the most satisfying and do keep you engaged in the sport, even when in a rut etc – well, that’s my view, many may well be happy following a system/tipster etc and seeing their bank grow over time which is fair enough. Anyway…

      Yep, Jumps S1, Flat S6 and S4 (covers both Flat + jumps – treble rated)- i’d like to think that is a 80-100+ point portfolio a year, combined, which would be a decent place to start. Jumps S1 will stop when geegeez jumps ratings stop at end of April- they have the summer off, but then Flat S1 and S4 will be there.

      Nick is a phenomenally consistent tipster and you won’t go wrong following his tips over time. He, like many of us here, has been on a journey and like me I think has got better with experience, I think we are both better tipsters than 2 years ago but he may think i’m talking nonsense there! I am, for sure. And give it a few months down the line and we will all be following your musings!

      Jumps S2A is something I am keeping tabs on, i have everything crossed that this may well be a decent EW or win only priced based strategy in itself, but early days in terms of no. of bets since I started tracking it, although over +70 up BFSP in 2018 I think already. That will tick over for the Summer Jumps also, and is one to keep an eye on. (Jumps section 1 qualifier, 16/1-25/1, easy as that..it will have many a fallow period though)

      In short, if you want to learn, improve, absorb and have a certain level of patience, you should enjoy your time here, however long that may be. Just start small, and make sure you have adequate banks for any losing runs… i’d like to think a 150 point bank would be more than enough for that system ‘portfolio’ (Jumps S1, Flat S6/ S4) but it does need to prove itself. The jumps has been a bit stop start on many a front, but signs of life on a few strands in recent weeks. It could be this odd winter has buggered up a few things on the trainers front.

      Oh, and my own tipping , across free posts, Notes and ‘Festival tips’ isn’t too shabby either haha.
      Josh

        1. No problem,
          Results for all strategies can be found in the advised strategies links in key, just about to bring those up to date, but most recent versions…
          Jumps

          http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Jumps-Strategies-2017.18-1st-April-2018.pdf

          Flat

          http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Flat-Advised-Strategies-2018-end-1st-April.pdf

          As with any approach you take, I advise keeping your own results, depending on who you bet with/prices you get etc, so that you can compare.

          You’ll see that as of 1st April, jumps S1, Flat S6, and S4 (both) were a combined +271 points since start of 2017, or since inception at some point last year. With any luck the three together will keep repeating over time, and from there we can cream at least +100 across the three.. fairly stress free way of betting also as not bombarded with qualifiers… creates a good foundation on which to build, and space/time for you to delve into other content/other readers views/tips etc.

          Josh

  2. Tuesday’s Early Season Maidens :
    1.50 Newmarket – Aurum : WON at 4.38 BFSP
    1.50 Newmarket – Elhafei : 5th at 3.30
    2.25 Newmarket – Jawwaal : 4th at 5.5

    1/3 (33.33% SR) for +1.26pts ( +42% ROI)

    Wednesday’s Qualifiers :
    4.10 Newmarket – Strings Of Life
    4.45 Newmarket – Award Winning
    4.45 Newmarket – Rococo
    5.20 Newmarket – Asoof
    5.20 Newmarket – Mythical Queen

    Chris

  3. Nice to keep the winning run going today. All about Bryony tomorrow.

    Frodon Cheltenham Wednesday 14:40 1pt e/w-This horse is not a grade 1 animal but he has been extremely consistent when it comes to handicaps with 2 1st and a 2nd in his last 3 chase handicaps with both wins over course and distance and his last easy win has been franked several times. Has been dropped 4lbs since that win. He has a big weight but he carried the same on heavy ground in January. Most these look exposed or are look like they need the run. Nicholls has won this 4 times in the past 15 years and twice he has done it with horses rated 160+. Nicholls is operating at 30% strike rate over the past 30 days. He goes on any ground. Looked like an extremely solid pick.
    Amour de Nuit Cheltenham Wednesday 17:30 2pt win-Probably about a pt too short to go e/w on although would stop anyone doing so. has got some very good form this season and has been crying out for better ground. In October he split Poetic Rhythm who is now rated 148 and Vision De Flow who was runner up in a grade 1 at Aintree. Than at Doncaster he was behind Irish Roe who was runner up in a grade 2 NTO and Mohayeb who won at the Festival. (William of Orange who was almost 30 lengths back won a valuable class 2 over Easter too). Given he was rated 106 on the flat there is definitely 6-12lbs in his rating and another who should go extremely well.

  4. chris regarding who to follow on this site i joined a few months ago and had the same problem as you who do i follow the object here is to make a profit if you pick to many your bank of money will be tested i started with nick mazur acouple of months back and am in profit and am hoping to slide josh main tips in soon hope that helps

  5. Morning,

    You may think I`m siding with Nick ,myself, i feel it`s better when some of us pick the same ,gives us all more confidence, so, here goes…
    13:50 Newmarket
    AELOUS 11/1 888 sport
    Has been Pat Cosgrave’s mount for a few races now. Back from a break with 1lb lighter, also 3 lbs lighter than when runner-up in the Stewards Cup last year. Class 1 Group 3 winner in early racing days, yet to win since, though not devoid of promise and yard had a winner in the past 14 days.
    SHANGHAI GLORY 7/1 BBright
    Charlie Hills charge has a good draw if watching yesterday races, as high drawn runners looked to have the slight advantage.
    William Buick was on him when winning at the Curragh last season, where they were to the fore and the combination can come true again and the handicapper has dropped him to 99 after racing with marks in the 100’s.

    14:40 Cheltenham
    FRODON 8/1 365
    Frodon back in a handicap race is a real threat especially back over course and distance and is 2 for 2 here. Found it very easy here last time winning in a competitive race here by 17 lengths. Also the very talented Bryony Frost claiming a handy 3 pounds keeps the partnership. This is harder and going off a high mark and the ground is faster from the previous win over c&d. But i think this 6 yo has the talent to blow all the competition away again back here so i think is worth a solid e/w bet.
    VOIX D’EAU 16/1 365
    Harry Fry has trained the last two winners of this race and is double handed. Voix D’eau was pulled up last year but showed all was ok with a good run at Stratford behind Art Mauresque with Days of Heaven behind. He gets on well with today’s jockey who has been on board for two of three career wins and Voix D’eau is now looking appealingly rated after fairly light campaign. Ground conditions should suit and he is preferred to stablemate Art of Payroll even though pulled up behind that one at Southwell.

    17:30 Cheltenham
    OXFORD BLU 11/1 365
    Connections were really talking this one up ahead of fred winter which he went off on a mark of 128. The ground went against him but off same mark here on better ground a real interest should be shown.
    AMOUR De NUIT 6/1 gen
    Everything Nick has put I agree with he looks as though this big field will suit and is lightly raced enough to capitalize on all the others maybe being “over the top”, has also been crying out for this better ground.
    Bryony on board also, what can go wrong?

    1. I’ve been going round in circles with regard to the 1.50 Newmarket.
      Got a bookies free bet after having the national winner and I’ve chopped and changed about which horse I should stick it on.

      I agree with you regarding the draw as the two handicaps were won by horses drawn high.

      Aeolus, for some reason looking through its form, doesn’t like Newmarket (famous last words!) and for that reason I too decided for Shanghai Glory.

      Last won a hcp off 92 and suffered for winning a listed race at the Curragh seeing its OR rise to 104.

      Ran a good race in the Great St Wilfred off 101 and now dropped to 99.

      Buick returns for the ride (winner for the Listed race) and with high draw looks to be the one.

      But this is a tough looking race and if I didn’t have the free bet I think I would have avoided this one.

      1. That is why they choose such races for free bets. They are sneaky. Not a race I will play but Stewart puts up a good argument above for his first pick.

      2. My “maiden” post here.
        First and foremost, thank you to Josh for creating an astonishingly good site and thank you to all contributors in whatever guise. It has been informative, illuminating and a great pleasure to read your thoughts and observations over the past few weeks.

        As an aside, for those wrestling with the possible effects of the draw (when on earth isn’t one wrestling with that on the flat) do bear in mind the stalls are “on the far side” at Newmarket today (as opposed to the near side yesterday) so low numbers will actually be racing against the rail (should they elect to stay on the far side)
        On the other hand, as we all know, jockey’s brains are pretty much a law on to themselves.

        Hope you have a profitable and enjoyable day’s racing.

        A

        1. Welcome A .. (Aidie?…)
          too kind, that’s another cheque in the post haha. Glad you are enjoying your first few weeks… your second sentence sums up the purpose rather well! (+ adding in some long term profit if we can!)

          Sounds like you enjoy your Flat, so any thoughts on that sphere as and when, in the weeks ahead, will be more than welcome.

          GL with any pokes today,
          Josh

        1. Obviously far easier looking after the race but he actually has really good Newmarket form. 3 out of the 5 times he has raced he has got to within a length of the winner in a class 1.

  6. there’s a few i agree with already posted so i won’t go over them again instead i’ll mention something completely left field in the opener at Cheltenham, LE MUSEE 40-1 i suppose it’s one of those could be anythings , only had a wind op 23 days ago, never run on good ground, never run higher than C4 but and obviously it’s a massive but if the opp has helped if the ground suits if he can improve 40-1 seems worth a small ew iv’e had £3 ew which shows my level of (not high) confidence, just thought it might be worth a mention.

  7. List of Prominent and Ledears Horses
    from Newmarket
    Pace if there is any
    2:25
    Prominent
    Npace
    Ekhtiyaar
    Eastern Impact
    Prominent
    Nebo
    Another Batt
    Finniston Farm

    Ledears
    Hey Jonesy
    Snazzy Jazzy

    3:00
    Prominent
    Deauville
    Frankuus

    3:35
    Prominent
    Threading
    Soliloquy
    Nawassi
    Altyn Orda

    Leaders
    Nyaleti
    Zain Hana

    4:45 NEWMARKE
    No leader and prominent

    5.25
    No Pace

  8. Hi Josh
    Just arrived and seen the through the card notes thx for finding the time I know you were going to be busy today let’s hope for a good day for us all
    Regards
    Peter L

  9. Hi Peter,
    no problem, fingers crossed!
    This ground is going to feel so so different to what many have been running on, horses are going to seemingly improve from nowhere, having been getting stuck in the mud…a tricky card, esp the number of good ground horses returning after lengthy breaks…and then there is pace.. these races may be run at a quicker pace than many have been used to this season, so we shall see how some of them cope with that, esp when it comes to jumping.
    Don’t go too mad, ensure you can enjoy the day even if they all fall out back of tv 🙂 (well, a no winners day at the races always takes the gloss off the day, but it’s even worse if you have done your dough!)
    Enjoy, Josh

  10. Tips- I am only +1 point up for April now!!

    2.40 CHN Art of Payroll – Likes spring ground, now with Harry Fry who has won the last two runnings of this race, had a wind op. 1 pt each way at 16/1.

    3.00 NKT – Robin of Navan – Had a run in France last month, has won at group 3 level and solid at this grade, 4/1 ish, 2 points win.

    Good luck.

    1. Unlucky there Martin, who knows what would have happened if he’d have held onto him longer and didn’t get in a fight with 3rd from before the last. Game of fine margins, lack of run maybe just catching him out.

      1. Yes, a spring horse waiting for this race but a place t 20/1 gets me a few points. I did the winner at 10/1 as it was put up by a tipster I follow and so you dont need to feel too sorry for me.

  11. WhatAKnight gave me position 3s on exchange
    but Traffic Fluide was best for me together with R1 on Newmarket
    Nice to see Traffic Fluide on wining way

  12. josh,
    Had a winner in the 1.50 so got a free bet for the 2.25. Needless to say I dug out your selection and the next thing I know I was 600 quid up in half an hour (a huge amount for me) and one that has turned April right round.
    My first bet using this place….you have set yourself a high standard now.
    a good day for S2 it would appear…and not far off being a dream day for the system would you say?
    Keep up the great work.
    Chris

    1. Hi Chris,
      yep another good day for the ‘big meeting notes’ for the Craven pointers, they seem to be performing well this year anyway. Glad you used the info to home in on a winner.
      Section 1, yea S2 on about +8 for day , S2A -6, not quite so good. The former is a rocky road, but was +30 BFSP as of 1st april as per links in Key. It ticks along but low win SR which means long losing runs, which is probably why I don’t like to introduce that as a strategy to start. But it made +271 in 2017. S2 + S2A 1 point win were +95 points as of 1st April, so not doing too bad, if you can stomach the odd fallow period and await the big winners.
      Josh

      1. Josh are you not doing yourself/S2 a dis-service? +271 at a 40% ROI is the kind of system you should be singing from the rooftop is it not?! I appreciate the SR is only 9% but as a standalone system it appears fantastic?

        1. Oh i mean profit wise, yep, it’s not too shabby! 🙂
          But, always some caution as it is based on my stats packs, which renew each season, although my methodology and what I look for is the same..
          I am more cautious in advising it as a starting point, given it can clearly have the odd -40-80 losing run, which it has done a handful of times, and if someone starts on that, even at small stakes, and hits one early, they may be a tad disillusioned. It has held up well again in the first 4 months of this year, and S2 is a simple approach, any section 1 jumps qualifier priced 10/1-25/1 on morning price… with those 16/1-25/1 being monitored now also, as S2A .
          The info/results are there for you to absorb and plot a way forward how you please! I focus on the other 3 to start, because they are based on ratings pointers also, which are a constant, and I suppose in my mind that is another level of security as to long term performance. But, if you can handle long losing runs and have faith that the winners will come, then S2/S2A, is worth consideration. Def one to start with the £2-2.5 bets and build up over time. I’m not going anywhere

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