Free Daily Post: 17/04/18 (complete)

4/1 tip + write up

TIPS

3.10 Exeter- Ballyheigue Bay – 1.5 points win – 4/1 (bet365/PP/BetfS/Uni/BetS/888) 7/2 (gen) 2nd...

Ah bugger, Exeter has gone from Soft/Good to soft in places, to Heavy (only meant to get showers later in afternoon!) in the space of no time..he has dictated, gone his own pace,jumped well..just ran out of gas/outstayed over the last…didn’t stay, certainly didn’t stay on that ground/winner ploughed through it better up straight. Better ground and maybe he skips away but that’s racing. Maybe best horse on day won regardless of weather, but I don’t like not knowing! Winner no shock, as below. Well, none of them would have had me falling off my seat. BB has a make all win in him over fences for sure, when on better ground. 

 

Sometimes I look at a race and a horse just leaps off the page and this one, at 4s, did just that. So, we know what happens now! 🙂 That may seem on the short end for me but this is a 6 runner race and I think he deserves to be sent off fav, 3/1, 5/2.

Firstly, he arrives here in form, having yet to run a bad race over hurdles this season, inc a couple of wins at C3 level. It’s possible he has now hit his ratings ceiling over hurdles, of 127. He returns to fences here for the first time since November 2016. Despite his age he is lightly raced and only 2/9, 5p in chases. There is one race I was particularly interested in, the 2015 London National. This was a fiercely competitive C2 handicap chase over 29f where he led/pressed leaders for most of the way round. He only just failed to stay there, beaten 3L or so. It was a gallant effort off a mark of 131. He is back to 122 here, his last winning chase mark, and he does look like a stayer. He has a touch of class and is in form- which can’t be said about most of his rivals here. There were two other big positives…. Gordon continues in fine form, 4/14,8p in the last 14 days…and PACE… I fully expect Cannon to try and make all here. If he does I don’t think anything will live with him, given he was comfortable doing so in that London Nat and arrives here in form. There should be no excuses really. Provided he remembers how to jump a fence and lifts his feet, he should play catch me if you can. Maybe it will take a chase run or two to get his eye in again, but I was happy to take a chance at 4/1, in the context of this race, given all of the above.

Of the rest..well I was happy to take them on at the prices…Wizzards Bridge arrives in form but has a major stamina doubt for me, in the context of his odds. Royal P has questions to answer including his well-being and stamina. The yard are in form and I won’t be shocked if he runs a big race in first time CP, but he isn’t 10s+ here, I can leave at 5s. Spookydooky would have some sort of chance but may want this to dry out further. The run over 31f in Feb 2017 would give him a squeak but i get nosebleeds backing a Jonjo horse at single figure odds, certainly under 8s- it isn’t good for the health  given how inconsistent they are, and thehorse has as many poor runs as good ones. More signs of life the last day, staying on and a return to some sort of form, but I don’t think he will catch BB. Yanmere is short enough for one who relies on rivals falling in a hole in hock deep mud over about 10 miles. I expect him to get out-paced at some point here, given it is soft and a small field, and I don’t think BB will stop, provided he jumps well. I won’t be surprised if he just keeps going and sometimes that can be enough, but 9/2 didn’t feel generous. The Bailey horse is just too inconsistent for me in the context of his price of 6/1 and is just a slow old boat now really. At his best he could go close, but again I can sleep well if he does bounce back.

In effect, at the prices, BB is the only one that would make me annoyed with myself, were I not to have a good go, and were he to win. I think this is all about how he takes to fences again, his first run over them for a while. Clearly if he repeats that London National effort – and I see no reason why he shouldn’t even 3 years later, (bar the ‘been hurdling for a while caveat’)- he will demolish this lot for me, from the front.

*

That’s the lot for today.

The free micro systems/angles… will stop now for the Jumps.. I need to review them, which I haven’t done for too long now, to see which ones are working and whether it’s worth bothering persevering with some etc.

*

Good luck with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

55 Responses

  1. Yes, I like this too. Backed it at 4/1 myself, will wait for your write up before saying why I backed it. (just in case it’s the same!) 😉

    Chris

  2. GOLF BETS Valero Texas Open
    Billy Horschell 1 point ew 33/1 1/5 7 CO
    The Oaks course at San Antonio is a tough and Billy has proven course form having had three top five finishes in 2013,2015 and 2016 and at 33/1 is value
    Kevin Chappell 1 point ew 28/1 1/5 7 CO BO
    Kevin is the defending champion and he is not in the best of form however this course brings out the best in him and his tee to green game is to good to ignore

    Top Rated Player
    Charley Hoffman 1 point ew 22/1 1/5 7 CO

  3. Martin as a full time player I have a couple of ideas that may interest you.

    1. horses playing up going to start.
    Shivermytimbers and Dorydalis are two recent examples
    both were well fancied but finished unplaced after boiling over pre race.
    Shivermytimbers didn’t want to know before his race at Chepstow and was duly tailed off

    Dorydalis was freaked out by a mobile crane at Tramore last night and finished last of 4
    the horse had taken a crashing fall in its last race so that may explain why he was so agitated

    Both horses drifted badly so it is a case of first in get the best lay
    in fact if you can spot these things quickly you can lay and then bail out later when the crowd cotton on.

    going down wildly, mulish behaviour just before the start, loading into the stalls and panicking in the stalls are all things worth noting.

    2. Mick Channon is a 12% trainer but a lot of his run with no chance of winning
    as soon as he books Silvester De Sousa it is usually a sign of it chances
    When he books SDS for an ordinary race it is a good sign

    1. Channon & De Sousa win more than their fair share of handicaps as a partnership, but aren’t profitable to follow blindly, other than at Class 6 and it’s a small sample size that could quickly become vulnerable to variance.

      1. Thanks Traf,
        What is SDS record for Channon
        when he comes south to ride for him.

        Bath
        Windsor
        Brighton
        Lingfield
        Epsom
        Salisbury
        Yarmouth

        As he is northern based if he is prepared to come south
        in search of winners
        Then he wont just take a Channon horse for the sake of it
        Windsor last night was an example
        He Rode for Channon in the first and the horse hosed up
        also on Mobsta for Channon

    2. Horses playing up is never good in my book. Some horses sweat up but that is just their nature and so not always bad but playing up gets them stoked up and they tend to either run too free or pull their head off and tire themselves. Re laying, well the market usually picks up on it and so it is hard to then get the value for a lay.

      Re Mick Channon, he seems a canny soul and seems to have his 2YO’s ready to go. Generally if a trainer puts up a top jockey they must fancy it a bit, otherwise why would they pay more for them to ride it. The combo should be easy to track re past results on Geegeez or HRB. I do not cover that micro at present.

  4. Now Josh has explained his reasoning behind Ballyheigue Bay, I backed it because of the yard’s previous handicap record at this time of year, plus their success in chases and also with longer distance runners. I’ll not bore you with the numbers, though.

    1. ah well that’s good, so many a solid stats reason based on trainer MO etc, combined with my 3m+ chase eyes reasoning… a sure fire winner, surely??!! (Unseats rider at 1st, having gone too quickly into it, we know how this goes haha)

  5. Hi Hugh,
    Very interested in your comments about Blown by Wind
    and was hammered in the betting late on.

    The problem I see is once these types show their hand they are a very short price next time
    and have to carry a penalty.

    What really took me about his performance that despite being it’s debut and being green
    Doyle managed to get him out of the stalls quickly

    This hints to me that along with the market moves that the horse was set up to win
    as the horse is owned by an arab I don’t think it was his money that shortened the price
    late on.

    So I can only think a combination of stable lads and experts like you on track
    slammed in the last couple of minutes.

    As the money came really late there was plenty of time to back the horse.

    Do you wait to they come into the paddock to view the juveniles or is the pre parade ring
    the place to see them.

    my idea is to do all the pre race checks
    Trainer fto
    breeding
    checking if dam has a good record with previous foals
    jockey
    etc

    and coming up with a shortlist
    Then attending the track and ranking the horses 0-10 on all the attributes you look for
    0 being rubbish
    10 being fantastic

    only bet and bet big when you are happy with the pre race checks
    and the horse scores at least 8 in a maiden or novice
    9or 10 in a listed or above

    1. Peter, please invest in a Horse Race Base account and do some of your own research… you can’t spout a claim ‘when he books SDS for an ordinary race it is usually a good sign’ , seemingly based on no evidence at all apart from your own recency bias? And then when someone who does know their stats inside out and politely adds some context to such a statement, you request them to go away and provide you with further information… why can’t you find that out for yourself?

      You appear to have awoken again with what I call your ‘catherine wheel of ideas’, indulging in all sorts again.

      There are no doubt some good ideas there, but why do you have such a lack of focus? Sorry, i am just starting to find it tiresome at times, especially when requesting whether people who have already invested time in commenting, would mind going away and doing some further research for you.

      I wouldn’t mind so much if you then took on board some of the replies, and tried to focus in on some narrow ideas and become and expert in something, leading to a live test of sorts which is based on some selections and some attempt to make a long term profit?!

      I just don’t know what the purpose is, unless you just want to enjoy a process of ‘chat’ about racing, without any end point. Sorry if that comes across as brash and abrupt – well it does, but i’d rather get straight to the point.
      Josh

      1. Josh,
        No one has to answer my questions or do my research
        I am putting out ideas that may or may not be relevant.

        no one has to use them or agree with them
        I like to stir up debate and get people thinking
        it is easy to say I lack focus or don’t know what I am talking about.

        I put up ideas with concrete conviction waiting for people to shoot then down that’s great
        if people who read my input think some of them or relevant then that speaks to me
        that the ideas are relevant

        Guys like you Hugh, Martin, Ian, Colin etc on your site really know their stuff
        but nobody knows everything my idea is to put things out there
        that shakes the tunnel vision that put a player in one dimensional
        frame of mind

        I may cause problems for myself by staking ideas as solid facts
        but as your reply it gets people reacting.

        Simple as this Josh if you don’t want me to post to your site
        or you think my input is rubbish then I will stop posting

        Pete

        1. yes but it’s all for your own benefit, it doesn’t seem to be useful for anyone else… given the lack of focus and it never transpires to any ideas backed up with empirical evidence, that then results in say a live test, or a tipping challenge… the point is that you will never win if you want to know everything- the only way to win in this game is to try and focus/have some sort of specialism/set approach.
          It just all seems self indulgent from where I am sitting and I am getting bored of it, to the point where I have stopped reading your comments given I know what is coming.

          Out of all this engagement, what have you applied to your own betting?? what has worked, what hasn’t? what successful approach have you landed on?

          If you do just want debate for debates sake, which seems to be the case, then yes, i’d rather you not post, if that is the aim, and if you have no intention of taking on board any of the above.

          (that final question below, to Hugh say, is sparking an interesting discussion..about Dams record etc, it’s those long monologues I think i despair at, as well as my other points above)
          Josh

          1. I disagree in some ways all of us are different.

            I am not the sort of guy who like to spend hours on stats on
            figures.

            I am an ideas man some of the biggest winner are guys who come up with new ideas
            early doors lots of money was made when draw bias was hardly used

            another winning idea was guys who bet on holes in one
            others made a fortune when they come up with the idea of using computer
            algorithms to forecast football matches.

            solid painstaking research is the basis of finding winners fair enough
            but I haven’t the focus for that sort of work

            that’s why I ask loads of questions and throw out random ideas
            when you read my posts you don’t ever stop to think what is Petes logic behind this idea

            I can understand your frustration my wife calls me the mad professor
            she can’t work out why a paid up member of mensa with an iQ way above average
            can’t work out how to change the DVD.

            But that’s me.
            in the past I have hit on ideas that have made good profits
            and they haven’t involved masses of research but I always believe
            I can get better so I ask guys on your site their opinions.
            Martin and Colin are top notch Ian is brilliant
            Hugh know juveniles better than 99% of the rest
            You are fantastic at steeplechases at 3 miles and above.
            but you seem to lack patience with my efforts
            if other contributors are complaining that I am rambling I can understand

          2. LOL…Peter. I have traveled the same road as you…many years ago i used to burn the midnight oil with pen and paper and stacks of old handicap books. My Mrs used to fumed as yours…..the vast majority of my ‘schemes’ came to nought….but occasionally i hit the big one early and cleaned up…and i mean cleaned up. With some the trick is knowing how to spot the shelf life and drop asap. others have a longer shelf life. Sadly now for varying reasons i don’t have the time or energy levels but still tinker. It was the advent of technology that finished me as regards progress as i can’t get my head around it…which is why i read all the best comments and ideas assiduously on Josh’s blog members and free blog and if something sparks a thought i go back to pen and paper lol…
            There are some gems on our pages….and honest also.
            I’ve been with Josh from day one….and he’s a pussycat really Peter, sometimes a Solomon with a touch of the impetuousness of youth lol [compliment Josh].
            So keep on puting up your queries and ideas peter, i like reading them.
            BOL
            Tony Mc.

          3. Peter

            I am one person who is bored of your endless wittering. So much rubbish is spouted by you – you say you make big profits, but never back it up and I seem to remember your effort in claimers / sellers was rubbish too.

            Stick to reading (not posting) – there are good guys on here like Josh, Colin, Martin, Hugh etc. who are doing a decent job.

        2. I am happy to take a look at the Channon/SDS angle when I get a chance. It does not readily come to me from memory but I will take a look.
          The horse playing up on is just something you would see if you were watching the racing and so you may play if you wish to lay at the time. It does not work as a system as you have to watch the racing and not even I have the time to do that.
          As Josh sayd you can get a HRB or Geegeez subscription and run reports re ideas you may have. Ask for a trial and if it is not for you, you can always not go ahead with it. They are useful tools.
          Good luck with your punting.

    2. Pete, some of your questions are answered in today’s posts. I follow the B2yor method which is to try and give them a rating which corresponds to the OR so that it has value all season. It is easy to get carried away by something like Blown By Wind in early season. As you will see I have only rated the second 78 and this may prove too high. He is an odd looking individual heavily built but not athletic in the way that the winner was and hard to assess.
      BBW stood out in the paddock as a cut above the rest and many of the usual paddock review suspects were standing around so i expect you are right that that shortened him up. Some of the experts are there on behalf of the bookmakers to spot exactly this scenario too.
      Hugh

  6. Newmarket 1.50 5f Mdn 17/04/2018 and report from Windsor
    Windsor – Blown By Wind was a class above the rest both in appearance and performance. I have posted a picture of him on twitter @hughonthehill. Awake In Asia is a bit gross and will come on a lot but does not have the same ultimate potential. Artair is nicely put together but very much a now 2yo and should win his maiden. Greeley is about the same quality but was too green and boyish to do himself justice today.
    The ratings and my assumptions proved accurate for once. If you watch the replay Spencer having broken well on Artair then hauled him back behind the front line of four. It was almost inevitable that the Johnston horse would try to lead, so why disappoint the inexperienced colt and wrestle him back forfeiting ground that he would have to make up later? If he had let him run alongside Blown By Wind he would still have been beaten but not confused as well.
    Here are my estimates of OR for the principals. I will expand on how I use these when I have more time.
    Blown By Wind 85-90
    Awake In Asia 78
    Altair 74
    Greeley 70
    Here is a link to look at the photos https://imgur.com/a/oKPVe

    To BFSP the win on BBW was 2.2 less 1pt loss on Awake In Asia. Exacta returned 9.4 and the trifecta was a 1 pt loss. Return on race 9.6pts. Running total 9.8pts
    Housekeeping – If anyone wants to follow these bets, like Colin I would recommend a minimum bank of 50pts. I use 100pts, otherwise I can get disheartened when the losing runs arrive but that is my particular weakness of temperament.
    Furthermore I have decided it is probably better if I only put the trifecta up as a fun bet unless I have really thought it through. If I think there is one that is worth a point of the bank then it will be posted directly under the ratings, otherwise the fun bets will be at the bottom. I reckon to get about 6 fat trifectas a season but usually on course after I have seen them. For this reason I don’t think it is wise to have them in the calculation unless I have a really clear desktop rationale. The betting today should have told me that me Artair was by far the most likely to complete the three with the two top rated despite his jockey.
    With regard to my comments above, don’t think that I am a Spencer hater, I think he is a great horseman just not on 2yos unless he has been told to jump them out and go for it. Every now and again he does that and wins but there is little point trying to predict when it will be. Today was a classic case of one of his being overbet.
    In a post yesterday Pete asked about difficulties loading 2yos and stalls misbehaviour. Like most behaviour patterns it comes back to the trainers methods. Time and again one sees 2yos misbehaving at the stalls from particular trainers. George Baker is one who springs to mind and there are some other culprits. Even Mark Johnston’s a couple of years ago used to be a bit lairy and often colty, although they seem much better now. Yes some 2yos do get into a panic and misbehave but 9 times out of 10 it is because they have not been sufficiently well trained and conditioned to handle the loading process. One seldom sees this from Hannon, Evans, Fahey, Cox or Channon or most of the successful 2yo stables A couple of years ago Tom Dascombe’s had a tendency to be a bit slow out of the stalls but being the capable bloke he is that seems to have been sorted.
    Newmarket 1.50
    Ratings
    1. I Am A Dreamer, Van Beethoven, Pesci
    2. Jackstar, Treasure Quest, Ynys Mon
    3. Ballistic, Treasure Quest
    4. Aloysius Lilius
    No ratings bets. I am going to Newmarket so will have photos tomorrow. It will be good to compare them with Blown By Wind.
    Typical grade 1 course and early season field. Not much I can add to the discussion other than to say that the O’Brien/Moore horse will almost certainly be overbet. As of 10.30pm Monday he is 2/1 with I Am A Dreamer and Jackstar around the 9/2 mark. Right now I wouldn’t be prepared to rule out any of the others without seeing them. Aidan does not whizz them up, Van Beethoven may well be the best in the field today or long term but all the other trainers are perfectly capable of getting a precocious one ready to win this.
    Hugh

    1. Very interesting comments and data about stalls Thank You!

      One veteran Trainer I know and had share in horses with had an old set of stalls just outside his yard. Horses would have to cross a quiet road and then queue for a minute and walk through stalls every morning to get them used to noise and clatter they make, from when they first came to the yard as juveniles. On was back stalls would be turned round for same thing. He did that from youngest to most experienced horses (some have had 100+ runs).

      It mimicked the wait with horses circling and the confinement of the stalls each time they did work. He would in summer (Flat) also give them stalls tests (going in to closed stalls and stall start) at least once a week.

      Fail to prepare / prepare to fail!

      1. so following that logic Hugh
        if you see a horse from one of the well prepared yards giving trouble
        then it would be a major negative and make you take it on

        1. No hard and fast rule, lots of Hugo Palmer’s and MJ’s are colty but it doesn’t seem to make that much difference, it is all a matter of degree. If they are colty and sweating and eyes out on stalks then it is clearly a negative. A lazy lob on not so much.

    2. Hugh,
      Do you think it is relevant that a two year olds dam has a record of producing previous
      winners
      I noticed that Blown the Wind dam had two previous foals
      and both were winners at listed level,
      disclosure now has 3 offspring all winners

      1. I used to take dam stats into account but could not prove that they made a significant difference and the researcdh time did not seem worth it. Different strokes…

  7. Hi Guys,
    I am no longer going to post to this site and wish you all the best.

    Josh is great at chase analysis and a man worth following
    and I have great respect for Martin, Colin, Ian Hugh and many others who post to this site.

    I will continue to view the site as I love juvenile racing and Hugh is a man who can teach me plenty
    Martin is a solid punter who’s views are worth noting
    and if I ever want to bet in a handicap chase Josh is the man and if backed up by Ian
    then you can sure the horse ticks the boxes.

    I ramble so I think better if I retire gracefully
    I am a bit arrogant and I have hijacked the site a bit to my own ends
    so if anyone like mad ideas I am on peterroywalker@outlook.com

    1. Peter, you can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com. I am happy to discuss any theories you may have as long as they are concise and you can tell me how you came up with them. I can test the evidence base when I take a look at various angles every now and then if I think it is a possible angle.

  8. Have to agree with Josh about your whims Peter hard to make this game pay when you jump from one thing to another without hard facts not sure what you are trying to prove stick to proven facts and systems already on the website

  9. Peter please read my reply to you before you do.

    To use an analogy peter…In the army we’d say. ”if you can’t take a laugh you shouldn’t have joined” meaning you’ve just had one up your jacksy so don’t take anything personally….if it annoys some people, keep on doing it…That’s why you joined.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Have to agree with Tony’s sentiments Peter. A lot of your ideas are a bit off the wall and subject to being at the pc during racing so not for me but do contain some logic, however you occasionally throw a sublime curve-ball which if nothing else is intriguing, eg altitude footy. It would never have crossed my mind to even think there may a possibility of profit there.
      Mike

    2. Hi Tony
      You must be quite a joker(laughing as i type) to have joined the Pongo’s this is from a crab,the forces banter as you know is totally non PC and you get on with life,met an ex Navy guy a couple of years ago same age as myself 63 and every time we bump into each other down town he always does the Dam Busters tune to greet me and he sill as not found the golden rivet yet!!! and i came out of the RAF in 1985.
      Sadly with the PC brigade you are not aloud to have banter today,for me there should be a form of National Service to kick the young into shape and get some pride into our country, not all young i will quickly add before the abuse arrives.
      My son Joe is aged 21 and i brought him up from the age of 12 he knows right from wrong and he his polite and well mannered he is on placement from Uni working in Pepsi’s computer department at the moment so basic discipline as not done him any harm, and when he comes home will always go down town for a few beers with me,i always pay that may be the reason,had not thought of that before!

      1. Ha Ha, same here Colin…I have a couple mates from the Andrew..and we used to go to the RNAS club in Liverpool…The laugh’s we’ve had….we all walked through the wand at John Lennon airport flying out for a break..and about half of us set the wand crackers with shrapnel lol…..Ian at SP2A is always telling us to have a bit of shrapnel shall we share….roflmao. He’s a good lad.
        Tales galore Col…can’t trust the navy…..wrecked my nose with pussers..lol

        Cheers lad.
        Tony Mc.

        1. Tony + Colin re shrapnel….#respect guys (made me smile). I have a small piece taken out of my Grandad during an operation just before he passed away in the late 1970;s, he’d carried it for over 40 years; in a war that was not truly recognised until much later; fighting Franco in Spanish Civil War ; he had to fight to get in to WW2 and got through that too.

          1. Much respect Ian to your grandad….My dad was on the Somme at 17….he went doolally for a while…then he went to Gallipoli…still a lad…like a lot of others….
            In his later years he’d drift far away…but we loved every bone in his body…..he’d say, if it’s right then fight……yet all over the world in our conflicts i remember being called ‘Soft Johnny English’…Why?…because soft shite’s like us and your granddad stuck it out…Sorry lads. I’ll shut up if i’ve annoyed anybody.

            Tony Mc.

  10. I think it’s been said before on our blog that if someone annoys you ….Scroll on and ignore…I do, but i also enjoy a touch of humour sometimes in this grey world of ours…lol

    Tony Mc.

    1. Tony it was me who put that statement up cannot remember who to could have been Peter only joking Peter,cannot for the life of me remember.
      Have you and Ken been to Portugal for the golf or are you back,take it the holes look big after the booze no doubt anyway hope that you had a good time.

      1. Hi Colin

        It’s Mickeydee thats with me in Portugal. One more round to go. Fabulous golf courses at Quinra do Lago. I’m typing this following a terrific meal in Quarteira washed down with a large Cardhu whisky, so the pages are a bit hazy and my writing may be also lol 🙂 Back to reality on Thursday 🙁

  11. Thanks Tony.
    I Totally agree with you and what others post or rubbish my ideas
    doesn’t bother me but this is Joshs site and I don’t want to
    turn it into a betfair forum where people are slagging each other off

    As Stated we all think differently you get where I coming from others think I am a crackpot
    but it isn’t fair to Josh.

    That’s why I gave out my e-mail address anyone who likes my ideas can e-mail me
    anyone who thinks differently can avoid.

    Why should Josh and Guys like Peter T have to wade through pages of
    my stuff when they don’t have to

    I know then that if anyone e-mails me they are interested in my stuff
    and guys who prefer solid stats etc don’t have to worry.
    Sorry this is 100% the last post, as my Mum used to say there is a time and a place for everything
    and using this site the way I do isn’t correct
    Thanks Josh good luck in the future

    Pete

    1. Hi Peter,
      for myself when i put my AW bets i worry a little are people following me with their hard earned money have they taken notice about the betting bank or have they got enough money for the long losing runs which will happen at some stage,now i am a strong believer that any one putting up on any site should put up results including Profit or Loss so any one new to the board as a true insight to the tipster or systems which are being put up on Josh’s board for at the end of the day it is his reputation at stake.
      To be honest i have not taken any notice of your systems or advice’s not for any reason other than i have enough of my own methods for me to bet on.

      If you are sure that they make a profit please put up your records of proof like i do with the AW and Golf bets and keep posting,i am not having a go at you but for me i do have concerns when people are following my bets especially if they start on a losing run,then i am known as something which rhymes with banker.
      Hope that you keep posting but with results and proof because someone may be following you who can ill afford to lose.
      All the best to you
      Colin.

  12. Josh`s Tip

    Wow, what a busy day it is on here today………..
    I have championed B365 markets before and will do so again. The Grand National offer was simply fantastic. I f anyone would like the long reason why olease email me kgibbard4444@hotmail.co.uk
    Anyway back to BB in 3-10 I have just got 11/4 without Wizards Bridge in the race and more importantly 4/1 RP without BB & WB ( which I believe is a super bet ). With a bit of luck, I will be collecting from both bets :0)

    1. Excuse my typing….. My I & f seem to be drifting and the o is too close to the p on my keyboard, lol

  13. Josh one passing shot you say I can’t back up ideas.

    but I have a system that is 100% sure of making a profit
    for part timers who haven’t got a whole host of on line betting accounts
    or a betfair account.

    as an incentive all on line companies offer a free bet if you match stakes
    so the plan is simple.

    open an account with bet365 for example and deposit the amount you need to get the free bet
    eg deposit £50 and get a free £50 bet
    of course both bets can lose

    so you open up a betfair account and lay the horse for the same price
    making your first bet a non runner

    then with your free £50 back a 4/1 horse with the bookies
    and lay off on betfair at 4/1 for £40

    I know the mathamatics will go over most peoples head
    but if you pick off one bookie at a time
    and you are good with numbers then you can’t fail to make a profit
    I will be pretty sure 95% of people on your site who read this wont understand what I am taking about.
    its not picking horse who may or may not do the biz it is a sure way to build a bank
    once you have made 500 quid using this method
    open the same accounts in relatives names and
    with the grand set up a betting account a play 3% of kitty per race

    I did this and now all my accounts are restricted because I made the mistake of using the same computer

    1. Ah i never said you can’t back up ideas, I think my point is that you never really have.
      Anyway, a wonderful parting shot to leave us all with, bravo.

      You have the pleasure of now joining two other people in 4 years of blogging on here who I have requested leave this blog to never return. I don’t want to see you around here again. Any further comments will be deleted and you are simply not welcome here anymore.

      In any case, I don’t know why you would stay. You can take your ideas to another blog, where perhaps more than 5% of it’s readership will have a clue about what you are talking about and will understand basic maths. (as well as stroking your ego, and indulging in your arrogance, which knows no limits) I don’t think any of us are up to your intellectual level in truth.

      Please do us all a favour and head somewhere new, because that comment is the straw that broke the camels back.

      All the best,
      Josh

      1. The very nice man josh gets the rapier out and sees off the Mensa mastermind. Good on yer Josh. I have to admit my intellectual level is nowhere near Peters but i am a thicko from Yorkshire, but i know a d**k Head when i see or hear one.

  14. Enough is enough with you Peter. People have been silent long enough but today has seen the dam break a little with your outpourings.

    Not only have they put up with your wittering on, as someone noted earlier, but today we have had to suffer you boasting about you being a paid up member of MENSA and your way higher than average IQ (and the subtext of that comment is clear for all. You then compound that idiocy by claiming that the mathematics of matchebetting is over our heads and that 95% of us won’t know what you’re talking about.

    Do us all a favour and stop talking

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