1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
Jumps
Kelso
2.40 – Forty Crown (hncp h) 20/1 S2A UP
3.40 – Newton lad (m1) 14,30 I3 G1 7/1 UP
5.10 – Make It Happen (m1) 14,30 H3 G1 4/1 WON 4/1>10/3
Bonus (Irish)
6.20 Tra – Jennys Girl (all hncps) ES+ H3 7/2 S3A
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Flat
Windsor
NONE
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KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated to April 1st 2018)
‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 1st April 2018)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>
VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>
IMPORTANT: Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’ (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/51,18p, -1.5) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +109)
None today.
3.Micro System Test Zone
Irish Angles
(different from ‘Irish Raiders)
5.15 Tram – Play The Dane (25/1<) 3rd 20/1>11/1
4.Any general messages/updates etc
‘Tipping’ results musings...
A re-cap and looking ahead…
Members’ Festival Tips
‘Cheltenham Festival Week’: 13 races / 6 wins / 1 paid place advised EW / +92 points
Aintree Festival: 3 races / 1 win / +17 points
Total: 16 races / 7 wins / +109 points
Free Post Tips
2018: 68 bets / 7 wins / 19p / +42 points
(inc 33/1 Irish National and 16/1 winner Topham Chase)
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Grand Total 2018: +151 points
(+£377.50 to £2.50 stakes per point, +£755 to £5 per point, +£1510 to £10 per point, +£3020 to £20 per point)
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Free tips were on -3 going into Cheltenham week… which means that in the last 34 days, i’ve tipped in around 33 races or so / 9 winners / 2 paid places on EW bets, 40/1 (chelt) 28/1-33/1 Milansbar) / +154 points….
Oh, and +110 points of ‘notes’ tipping content since Sept 1st.
+251 points or so in the last 7.5 months.
That’s just silly. I do like a profit spike, and please remember these glory days when I hit the inevitable 20-40 point slump at some point this year, which I will. Maybe twice, or more.
I think that is what they call a hot-streak. But, we cannot dwell on the past…
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Looking ahead… in terms of ‘tipping’…
C2/G3 handicap hurdle winners at 28/1, 12/1 (+40/1 2nd same race, should have won!) and 25/1 (Jester Jet) in that period, would indicate that these races are worthy of ‘the treatment’ in terms of my stats/trends/shortlisting/tipping, within the Members’ posts. Free tips will continue to focus on 3m+ handicap chases as they have always done.
Next week we have Ayr, the week after Punchestown (where i’d best focus on handicap hurdles I think, stats allowing) and over the summer the likes of Galway, Market Rasen etc.
Punchestown… I’ll try and dig out a few Trainer micro systems, and anything else. I won’t be going mad that week but there will be something to get stuck into. I don’t follow Irish racing at all throughout the year really, so I am always cautious about diving in too much. Less could be more that week.
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The FLAT
The ‘tipping’ focus on the Flat will be my ‘notes’ (section 2 above) where I had a mad time of it at the back end of last year in Sept/Oct, once I’d changed mindset/approach. Hopefully my TTP Flat stats pack can continue to highlight enough winners and that I can home in on enough of them within Section 2. I am looking forward to seeing if I can build on that foundation although it may take me a few weeks to get my eye in.
There will be plenty of ‘big meeting’ notes for the Flat. (as per research link in the Key, in order to get an idea) They have more 2-4 day ‘Festivals’ than the jumps and those of you who have a HorseRaceBase account, and click the ‘Festival Tab’ within the V4 system builder, will see what I mean. I need to make these more focused and useful, in a way that I can home in on horses to ‘tip’ within section 2 above. Another string to the bow, hopefully. But in any case such research is as much about providing you with info in which to make your own picks, which is always some of the point in what I do here.
On the free posts for the Flat..well time allowing in a week, I will post up stats/trends for big heritage handicaps, 5-7f, I suspect. And any shortlists, 2-6 horses, in which to focus. I have no historical record of success in such races and at any point in a week, all of the content mentioned above will take priority. Last season, or the season before, I ran myself down mentally by trying to become a ‘sprint king’ expert, on run of the mill C2-4 sprint handicaps during the week, with no stats/trends etc. I won’t be doing that again and have no intention of trying to become said expert. It would be to the detriment of everything else above and I just found them too challenging and failed to find an easy/quicker way to analyse such races. I think I have enough to focus on anyway. One day i’ll master them and find an approach. But it won’t be this summer.
and then there is the bread and butter…
Section 1/advised strategies
You good folk will judge your experience in these parts on many factors no doubt, but I benchmark any success on my ability to create a systematic betting portfolio. I don’t think i’ve nailed that as yet, certainly not this jumps season (Nov-now has been quiet enough). (hopefully the tipping elements have made up for any negatives on that front though! 🙂 )
My aim is to guide us all to a point where we can win say +100 points over a calendar year from a systematic approach based on the qualifiers in Section 1. Betting £2 to £2.50 per point would therefore ensure your subs are covered, there is a bit left over and that we have a solid profit foundation on which to build.
I think/hope that Jumps S1 and Flat S6 will combine, over the course of a year, to deliver that. S4 also, which is the same for both Flat/Jumps, and won a much needed +8 points on Saturday.
Just three strategies, +100 points the aim.
As of 1st April those three collectively were around -5 points or so for 2018. On Monday I’ll bring all results up to date within the links in the Key above.
We will see how they end up come the end of the year. A 100 point bank is probably advisable for those three, to be on the safe side. Two of them have win strike rates in the 10-14% region, which will mean the odd hefty losing run.
Of course, you are free to use all the info in any way you please, as presented in the ‘advised strategies’ links. If you have yet to spend any time flicking through and immersing yourselves in those, it would be advisable to do so.
Jumps S2A -16/1-25/1 priced Jumps qualifiers – (Searching is an example above) look exciting. I think they may be near the +80 point mark for 2018, from 1 point win bets, and prob +65-70 or so from 1 point EW.
As previously discussed, ‘In form horses‘ and ES+ Double/Treble Rated (strategy S3A, + two or three red ratings pointers) look interesting also, but very early days. It will be interesting how they perform on the Flat also. All of this information/discussion/evidence/results can be found in the advised strategy links.
The ‘Test Zone’ is just that, there to use as you please, but the likes of the Lacey and McCain angles have been the stars of the show on that front, around +60 points between them this jumps season. I will try and find the odd angle for the Flat, when I get a moment to breathe, that we can track over the summer.
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There will be a Summer Jumps stats pack also, and those qualifiers will be posted in Section 1 also – jumps action all year round, which may please those of you who do not like the Flat!
As always, I think less is more and realising that we will not back all the winners found on the daily posts or indeed in the comments from your good selves. Handling ‘missed winners’ is an important trait given the approach here. You and I just have to be happy with our own experience and profit levels over time.
Anyway, always plenty to ponder, and I haven’t even mentioned all of your stellar tipping efforts and musings!
Without any evidence to back it up, i’ll just suggest this is the most profitable blog in racing. Maybe 🙂 (well, surely in the last 34 days!!)
On we go.
As always, any questions/queries then fire away in the comments below, or email me.
Josh
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44 Responses
Hi Josh
I would be surprised if any members disagree with the general sentiment you express that this forum (blog) is the best out there. For the price we have your all round approach to looking to profitable strategies is outstanding and of course the “tips” (I know you don’t describe yourself as a tipster as such) more than provide great results and hopefully everybody has at least something on them to defray the minimal subscriptions costs and hopefully a bit more to spend .
Only point I would make is there are lots of festivals in the summer months so don’t allow yourself to get run down with mundane fayre particularly in the early part of most weeks. Allow yourself some free time so that the enjoyment of what you do on our behalf remains ever present and doesn’t become a chore.
Hi Andrew,
thanks for your kind words, much appreciated as always.
Yep, burnout is always a danger, esp in ‘high summer’ when there can be 5-8 meetings inc in the evening etc. It all goes a bit silly sometimes. In part that is why part of the ‘portfolio’ approach being systematic helps, but it is a case of ensuring my head is fresh to attack anything in terms of ‘tipping/notes’. I have no doubt in my head that this past month’s success is in part to a few ‘blank’ analysis days, esp the snow days etc in the week before the Festival, and being away for the week and a bit more relaxed. It was rather relaxing having X days where I could spend 2 mins posting ‘nothing today’ knowing there were no races to dive into. They felt like the first complete ‘days off’ in about 2 years. I really should look at paying/training someone to create/update/post Section 1 for me at some point, as taking a whole week away without having to do anything blog related, may be needed come September time!
I’ll do my best to build up my analysis efforts as the week progresses. I’d certainly be ill by now if I was attacking each day like I do a Festival day or a Friday into Sat.
Josh
Josh you’re doing great. Thank you.
You know I have my own strategy focused on 3m chases. But I’m surprised Henry Parry Morgan in the West Wales national @ 33/1 doesn’t feature in your summary. (Unless I’ve missed it) With the leopardstown result that was 2 33/1s in 2 days. 2 nice winners again today too.
I agree the bubble will burst at some point but just now it’s great. Good luck. And thank you.
I think Josh was otherwise engaged that weekend, that was actually me banging on about HPM and ever since haha, if you check back to the day of the blog.
The day after Josh did say he had missed out on tipping it because of XYZ, it was left to me to wax lyrical about it and therefore make sure those who weren’t in the know listened to a certain extent!
Yes I did read your notes about HPM but to be honest I backed it because it was a section 1 qualifier. I don’t want to sound disrespectful but there are so many tips on here I have to be quite strict with myself and stick to the plan. But it was a fantastic result especially given the 6/1 SP.
Hi Mick,
Yep I didn’t tip him sadly , wish I had, and given the time I posted that day (11am or so, it was a rare late late weekend morning) he did not qualify against any advised strategies. Had I backdated his odds to the time I usually post, he’d have been 16/1-20/1 and been an S2 (or now S2A) qualifier, which would have boosted those stats further. As always though, if a section 1 qualifier hits and advised strategy you follow, at the time you look, then it all evens out. I know not all will have time to look in the morning, and there have been a few S1 S5 winners based on prices the evening before, that did not qualify (and are therefore not in my results) on morning prices. Some may have looked at Henri later on the sunday and he was 16s say, and backed him as S2/S2A. As has always been the case, don’t back everything in section 1, that won’t end well 🙂
Josh
Slowly making sense of it all Josh but got my head round it now. Best recommendation of where to start from tomorrow just to dip my toe in? S1?
Ever thought of incorporating Geegeez ‘stat of the day’ with any of your own findings. Has a fantastic standalone strike rate/ROI but wondered if you were able to improve it further. Can understand if you would rather not though
Hi Chris,
Ah good to hear. Yep that is the point of the extended trial periods, I am quite aware it can take a while to work out what the hell is going on haha. It is worth it when you reach the point where you’re comfortably. In essence it is a list of qualifiers against my carious research methods (Section 1 track stats) (Section 3 test zone) and that is the foundation for all the daily content, and the core. Add in some ratings pointers (red symbols), the prices, and the odd other symbol (14,30/w1/w2,ES/ES+) and we essentially have a set of information on which to make a punting decision- some lead to ‘advised strategies’ which you can back systematically, you’re free to use all horses/info as starting points for your own bets, and then see what I make of them all in Section 2, whether i tip them etc. In essence that is the core. All the Festival stuff and other research comes on top of that. Anyway…
Advised Strategies… as per the musings above, I think i need to judge myself on the Jumps S1, the Flat S6 and S4 (which covers both)… I would start with those three, betting small, £2-£2.50. On results from start/during 2017 when introduced, i’m hopeful they should pull in 80-100+ points per calendar year.
I’d then keep an eye on Jumps S2A, (that looks like be rather profitable but will have long losing streaks every now and then) and ES+ double/treble rated – so an ES+ with one or two red symbols next to it, and any horse in Section 1 with a w1 or w2 next to their name… I am not yet at the place to advised betting those three ‘systematically’ – by the end of 2018 I think that picture will be clearer – there is plenty of logic underpinning those three. But, if you wish to use the content to find your own bets (in addition to any advised strategies), using all qualifiers as ‘starting points’ – focusing on those 3 ‘test strategies’ i suppose, may help draw up a nice shortlist to attack on any given day/through a week. If that makes sense.
Josh
‘Geegeez Chris’ as I call him is a member here, but it is a different website etc, I don’t think I can start lifting his excellent SOTD picks to analyse further etc- not sure i’d want to anyway, as there is no way i’m improving his superb results. Chris has the best value eyes of anything i have seen in the 5/2-11/2 price range- that is a skill I do not posses and have no idea how he does it, consistently, over a number of years. It’s a 60-100+ point a year money machine. Don’t get me wrong, his write-ups get my research brain pondering and no doubt i’ve subconsciously stolen the odd idea over time!
Josh
I’m also a rookie so bear with me.
Will speed ratings have more relevance once we get into the flat season and shorter races? I associate speed more (say) with a 5f race rather than a 24f race where stamina would seem to be more important. If that is the case, should the speed strategies be more reliable over the summer?
Thanks in advance
Chris
Pace is important on courses like newmarket 80% of winners are prominent horses on good or good to firm
tomorrow 6f windsor 4.20 is the same pace can win that race and it is heavy
Hi Chris,
You could be right.
Jumps S1 which is based on Geegeez Speed figures has been solid enough since start of 2017 and hopefully that keeps ticking over. In general you’d think so though- I associate such stats as maybe being more reliable in races run at a true pace, which arguably may happen more on the flat, but in truth I could be talking nonsense there. The Inform ratings haven’t done much on the jumps this season really. Well, S5 has been rocky.
I believe you can back all Geegeez top rated in 5f sprints blind, and make decent profits over time. The only trip you can do so I think, which may give some weight to your musings.
Flat S6 is exciting, and I have everything crossed that will have a superb summer, given just focused on Top Rated in the three ratings sets, hopefully it can be consistent. We shall see.
Josh
this is a great website and a hidden little gem in the realm of the internet. In addition to your great work Josh, we have Nick, Stewart, Martin, Colin etc who contribute tips too and some crackers as well. Have a great Monday all and let’s spend any winnings we got last week wisely.
Paul
No doubt about it this is the best forum out there by a mile. If you put together the selections of Josh,SP2A and stat of the Day you have as near to a dream team as you can get. Josh is such an understanding man as well and puts up with the barb tones of people like me. Absolute Top man.
Ah too kind Roddo, much appreciated. On the scale of barbed tones you’re near the mild end haha.
Josh
I have pulled my stats for April so far, worked these out as straight wins rather than the each way element at the moment, will go back and do the each way aspect of it shortly.
14 races bet in….which came to 28 bets and 3 winners which brought 35pts returned at SP… 7 pts profit at SP.
EP returns ballooned to 46pts returned…. 18 pts profit at EP.
If we had taken the 33/1 on offer for HPM it balloons to 35pts profit, but, for research purposes it`s best to stick to SP/EP!
the three wins may be too much for some people, including myself and when i factor in the each way, this is what helps my brain process the days losses..It`s horses for courses though and I suppose looking at it in print helps, will now look at the each way aspect….
Great stats Stewart, very well done
Wow this is a strange one, the each way element at 1/5 odds at S.P. is really odd.
Again 14 races bet in 3 wins and 4 places….
28 bets which becomes 56 pts bet (each way element), returned 63.8pts at S.P. profit of 4.8pts
at Early price becomes 56 pts bet , returned 81.6 pts profit of 25.6 at Early Price.
7pts more than the win element on the previous post, but, less on SP, suppose that proves your always better getting Early price, which we all know anyway.
Again this would be ballooned if you got the 33/1 on HPM. will keep up to date with this and post again at end of month due to work and loads of top class meetings coming up quickly.
The justification for my personal use of Each way is there for all to see at the moment, but, i cannot knock those of you who back win only.
Hi Stewart,
I posted some section 1 figures earlier in the jump season showing returns from 2016/17 backing 1pt e/w @16’s+ was very similar to 1pt win. This season I think will be no different and I’ll post my figures in a few days if required. I’ll go out on a limb and say S2A is probably best considered only if you can get bog / early prices.
Mike
should add that when I say 16+ that is what I mean. eg. HPR was 33’s bog and there has been at least one winner at 40’s and a few places @28’s+.
HPM no idea where that R came from haha
Hi Stewart
I presume those are stats from your picks?
Regards
Nick
Yes they are Nick, think Mike is doing a comparison for each way purposes on s2a`s, Haven`t looked at March yet as I only really got going half way through the month..thought it best to start attacking it this month.
Hi Stewart,
Sorry just trying to wade through all the comments haha…
So in April…
Betting 1 point win?? it is +18 points profit to EP
Betting 1 point EW it is +25.6 to EP
Do I have that correct? If so the truest comparison, profit/ROI wise, would be to compare 1 point EW with 2 point win, so it would be +36 points versus +25.6..? (although your win stats may be based on 2 point win..hence the comment….)
Anyway, they are bloody good results so far however you look at them! EW may make sense for ‘keeping in the game’ (mentally if nothing else) esp if win % is in the 10-14% range.
Josh
Thank you for pointing that out Josh, you are indeed quite correct and like you say, 2pt win would become 1pt ew, therefore even over this short test the win element does outweigh the each way.
It is for me to understand and logically process this, as I said, for some people going 17 bets without a win is hard to take, but, if the profit element is built in i suppose i should be able to handle the losses…this I can`t so each way is better for me mentally.
Yep, there are no right or wrongs, it very much depends on ‘keeping in the game’ and how you handle losing runs, and indeed how you analyse racing… Nick and Sp2A certainly have more of an ‘ew mindset’ to analysis, where first and foremost I think they look for horses likely to get competitive/place, hence why I suspect their placed % stats are higher than mine I would think. I look at races in a slightly different way I think and I don’t think my place % is high enough to make it pay in that way.
A rough guesstimate, from previous analysis – I suspect my tipping profits, all time on the blog, so 4 years or so, are north of +150 points better off for 1 point win as opposed to 1/2 EW. When betting £20 per point, that’s a fair chunk of cash! 🙂 I think they may be around +50 points or more better off just on tips since Day 1 of festival this year. I can, and will have, losing runs in the 25-35 range, I don’t think I have gone longer than 35, and I don’t take any notice until I get past -20. But then i’m pretty confident, based on the last 4 years, that it will turn at some point, and you just have to work even harder then. I can withstand long long losing runs, mentally. And that’s the crux, and if you can’t that is the best argument for EW- as keeping in the game and playing EW is better than not being in it at all.
Josh
That`s it, if you are suffering because you are on a long losing run, to get oneself back, you can look at EW to get your train of thought functioning again!
Before we get too Einstein esque here, what works for one person, does not work for another and if you are happy with the way you are studying the racing and selecting winners then crack on, but, above all it is the PROFIT that needs to be adhered to!!
I have only had 3 winners in the last 3 weeks, for some that is not enough, for me, it works and the profit is in built within the selection method I have, let us see how it pans out!
I now treat EW bets as 2 separate bets I.E 1bet win 1bet place and record them separately if the strategy dos,nt win on the place part then win only
Thanks for the kind words guys. Excluding the National yesterday made it 3 winners from 5 picks at the weekend so fingers crossed I can keep it going this week. Hopefully plenty of good racing with Newmarket, Cheltenham, Newbury and Ayr on.
Nothing from me today although have had £5ew on Blaine in the 16:20 at Windsor
iv’e had a small ew on Blaine as well hoping for a repeat of last years fto.
Tips – No winners on Saturday and 9 points lost. So we are 4 points up for April so far (5 points up in March). Only one today – 3.40 Kel, Looksnowtlikebrian, 10/3 x 3 points. On a 3 timer, up 9LB and into a handicap but in good form, Dicky Johnson on board.
Good luck.
Drifted like a barge and ran a shocker!!! Would have been beaten by a rocking horse. Apologies for the poor effort.
Given Dermot Weld’s record in the race – 6 of the last 10 winners, and on a hat-trick, I can’t resist a tenner each way on Tandem in the 5.0 Leopardstown at 20/1.
Nick how do you approach your points per bet do you step up what a point is worth as your profit increases or do you throw a set amount at each bet
I probably over complicate things Paul and given different tipsters do slightly differently as far as points advised it does vary a little but generally I would say:
£0 £7.5/pt
£250 £10/pt
£2,500 £12.5/pt
£6,000 £15/pt
£10,000 £17.5/pt
£15,000 £20/pt
That’s tailored to a 2pt win/1pt e/w advised so for Josh’s tips would be slightly higher
Hi Nick,
Just to clarify does the above table mean to make a profit of €15K you estimate you need to bet at £20 per point?
Thanks, guys, some very kind words for me further up the page.
Lower grade handicaps in the 5/2 to 11/2 price range is certainly where I do most of my “work” and as to whether Josh “subconsciously” uses some of the data I’ve dug out is perfectly fine with me. There are a few of us out there taking a similar approach to the game and we’re probably all borrowing ideas from each other and tweaking/improving them to suit our own MO.
I will try to post stuff on here more often, but until I have something else for you, I’ll leave you with an update on the stat stuff I posted for the Liverpool meeting last week.
Across the various betting strands, I had 12 winners from 50 (24% SR) that generated 50pts (+100% ROI) at SP and 76.35pts (+152.7%) at betfair SP and considerably more at BOG odds, I assume.
Of the Mullins/Nicholls lay suggestions, well they only had 2 winners from 24, but laying all 24 only made 0.13pts profit at betfair SP.
Chris. (or Geegeez Chris as Josh refers to me!)
Good stuff Chris, some cracking angles/results in there, looking forward to next year already on that front! Thanks for taking the time to post during the week. The Class1/Chelt/Aintree angle is something I need to take a closer look at, did the job in fine style.
Josh
Hats off Chris your input was greatly appreciated last week and with your workload anything you do post is well worth it #geegees Chris
I’ll send you something that might be useful if we get any Flat racing over the next 6 weeks!
A thought about the staking discussion up the page.
I have wondered about the merit of two staking banks, one for Josh’s win selections, other 10/1+ bets and for staking the win part of EW bets.
The second bank is for shorter priced bets and for the place element of those EW selections. For myself, I would use this bank more than the other one as there are win bets in the 2/1 to 5/1 price range to be found on an almost daily basis.
I won’t elaborate further but would be interested in your thoughts.
CRAVEN MEETING…
trainer stats/pointers…
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Newmarket-Craven-Meeting-2018.pdf
(also in tomorrow’s member’s post)
Josh
High All, this is my second attempt to post a comment, do not know where the first one went.
Two horses I like in the 1835 at leopardstown are Tribal Path and Bainne. Both will/should like the going which is described as heavy.
May the wins and luck be with you.
(your first comment was posted on the free post Rich)