3.45 Ffos Las
Ballycross – 1 point win – 6/1 (PP/BetfS/MatchB) 11/2 (gen)
I’ll try and keep this brief… this one was 13/2, 7s in places when I started pondering and his price has come in 1 point, generally (6s available as I write with said firms above) but I’ve thrown caution to the wind and had a go anyway. 11/2 is probably about right but hopefully he can notch his first chase win. He has been highly tried in his chasing career to date and may appreciate these calmer waters. It is one of the weaker handicap chases he has contested in his time, and he is still only 7. He returned the last day after a 58 day break or so and ran well until about 4 out. It could be he doesn’t stay 3m4f so this drop in trip, and this more galloping track, may be ideal. The ground is fine and I like the fact that Sam is back in the saddle. This one can try and take a fence home with him every now and then but he should have no excuse in this race, with what should be a comfortable pace at which he can measure his fences. Twisters are going OK and father/son have a great record when teaming up in handicaps here. I last tipped this horse back in the autumn on his first run of the season where he ran well but may not have appreciated the decent ground. His mark has dropped a little and for me it is now time for him to deliver. His one win when was hacking up off 121 in a C3 Sandown handicap hurdle over 22f. Off 128 over fences here, having had more time to mature, he should be well enough handicapped. Maybe we will see the best of his as a chaser aged 8 but this is a very winnable race for him, or should be.
Of the rest- well there are 3 veterans who may all run well but I can take on the two at the top of the market given their age. They keep running consistently and that may be enough again here. Behind Time is short enough for one that PU LTO even if there were excuses.
Pressurize… may be worth a saver given we race in hock deep mud, Venetia is flying and he gets first-time blinkers. Those could make the difference, as they did for Saroque at Wincanton in the week. Stamina is a big question mark but these horses of Venetia’s can just keep galloping when on song, and in races like this, that can be enough- as we saw with Uhlan Bute at Ludlow.
I was happy to leave the rest. I would be annoyed if Dr Robbin popped up at 20s. I don’t think he stays in this ground, and is much better on a decent surface. One to watch in the coming weeks as the ground dries out I suspect.
That’s the lot for today, GL with any bets.