Free Daily Post: 12/04/18 (complete)

TIPS

4.40 Aintree

Baby King – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/BV) 20/1 (gen)

Sizing Platinum – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

The Flying Portrait – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) (send for the white coats!)

 

Without doubt three wild enough pokes in this, more in hope than expectation but there is some method to my madness… 5 of the last 10 winners of this have won with an SP of 16/1 or bigger, 8 of the last 10 8/1 or bigger. So, it can pay to look at the rags and the hope is that over time, if I keep my eyes fixed on the 16/1+ pokes, I may do just fine. I tipped the 16/1 winner of this two years ago for McCain so here’s hoping I can find another. I have been influenced by that 16/1+ winners stats and in effect I looked at the biggies and tried to make a case for some.

I was influenced by some stats, especially for Baby King… my own approach to stats/trends hasn’t thrown up too many of note for this race, but if focusing on those whose highest class win was C3 or G3 and who had 0-2 runs in G3s, you are left with 9/54 runners, 21 places, in the last 10 renewals. Those stats leave just three, and they are all trained by Tom George, who is 1/2,2p in the race>  Baby King / Bun Dorran / Noche Des Reyes ..

Baby King… 

Having gone through the stats in that way I felt obliged to go with one of them, and my pin landed on this one! I’m not sure the George horses are going that well but you can forgive plenty with 25/1 pokes. This horse is a CD winner who does enjoy getting his toe in. He is a bit inconsistent but his best form tends to be on flatter, tight tracks – Wincanton / Musselburgh/Aintree. He may not have enjoyed Chepstow LTO where he went well until 3 out or so, and/or the yard form or lack of, may have rubbed off on him. He’s had a light enough campaign which may be no bad thing and it could be he prefers a break between his races. He should be able to sit mid-division and if he can get into a rhythm he ‘could’ be the one to pick up the pieces ‘IF’ plenty of these fall in a hole up the straight (which isn’t impossible in this) So, at 25s, I thought i’d throw a dart. With all of these i’d like to see some sort of market support.

Sizing Platinum…

He just looks interesting in this and given Tizzard is 8/16,11p with all runners at the last two Grand National Meetings I am tempted to just back anything of his at a price! Indications are that they target this meeting now and there is a chance this horse has been also. He was an unfancied 50s shot  at Cheltenham, his first run since October, and he went well enough as they turned for home. To my eyes he then got rather tired rather quickly, which suggests he may come on plenty for it. 16f around here, with some cut (looks like he may appreciate softer now he has got older – less severe on the legs) and a fast pace to track may be ideal. Robbie Power jumps back into the plate and having tipped a 16/1 handicap chase winner of theirs last year, I thought i’d best dive in on this one also. He has the form and the ability to win this and I can’t say for sure he can’t win from this mark, in these conditions.

Theflyingportrait…

Likely to be the biggest poke of the lot but Candlish has trained a 33/1 handicap winner at this meeting in recent years, and here’s hoping for another one. The yard are in very good form, most are running with credit and I just wondered why they would run him in this race after the break. Maybe it is just to give the owners a nice day out and to set him up for the odd summer chase to come, on better ground. He has won after a lengthy break before (although not quite this lengthy) and clearly there is a big fitness doubt. He may travel well into this for a long way before fading. But something just niggled at me at this price, to a point where I couldn’t help myself. The trainer can ready one after an absence if they so please but you do want a price. Like Baby King he is another CD winner which is no bad thing around here. He also races prominently and should lay up with Gino Trail (if here to run his race), tracking him I suspect. Both of them could ruin each others chances if not. The ground? Well, he has been kept to decent ground in recent months but if you look far enough back there are some admirable efforts on soft/heavy where it was the trips (19/20f) that seemed to catch him out more so than the going. I wasn’t happy, at his price, to say with confidence that he won’t handle this ground and cannot win on it. Come this race there may be some good in the going, who knows, and while he may be best on good, 33/1 pokes will always have a question or five to answer! 🙂

Of the rest…

Where do you start??

Well in truth if I wasn’t going to Aintree I would probably leave this race as in truth it’s a minefield but where would the fun be in that? You can make a case for nearly every runner in this and I won’t be putting you off any fancies…

Gino Trail – what a horse, saver material?? Possibly… I would like to think 11-12 in this ground, without an easy lead (IF the Flyingportrait is up there), on the back of a hard race LTO and a hard season, may just do for him. BUT… he is ‘THE’ in form horse in this and has been ultra consistent. He is tough. It could be that he bounces out and on this ground gets into a nice rhythm and plays catch me if you can. If he runs his race, as at Cheltenham, it’s possible that nothing catches him. 10s is ok. I just thought he may fade late after his recent exertions but that is educated guessing at best. The rest may fall in a hole and he keeps rolling. I will have something on at track-side just in case. Part head and part heart no doubt. He is such a likeable horse.

Kings Socks – just short enough for me, generally, and in the context of this race. I thought he ran the last day as if wanting further, not shorter, but maybe trust in Pipe, who has hit some form. This horse will demolish a handicap one day I suspect but at that price I can cheer him on and not feel aggrieved I wasn’t on. (while peering to the bottom of the home straight to see where my three are!)

Theinval – 6/1 again is short enough for me, especially for a trainer who is 0/17,2p in the race. But Henderson’s fancied handicappers should always be feared at this meeting. But, I can leave on price. He has a chance, if building on that Festival run and if it didn’t take too much out of him.

Bun Dorran- 7s – again I can leave on price, especially given some niggles over the yard form- i’d want bigger, as above with Baby King, and something just niggles at me with this horse- I won’t say he is a shirker but there is the odd question in a battle I think, but I could be talking nonsense. I wasn’t sure why he should improve on recent runs and he was beat in this last year. The fact George fires 3 at the race may suggest none have been targeted and he is throwing mud hoping that some sticks.

Doitforthevillage – I suppose would have a chance and 10s may be ok, but as above i’ve tried to make cases for horse twice this price given the historical context. I thought Paddy B would have had the chance to ride him, he is the go to man for P Henderson, especially on this horse. He is on a career high mark also, and is 10lb higher than when running well in this last year (when I was on I think) before running out of luck and being brought down. He’d have gone very close that day. Were he 16s+, I may have mused for longer. He could go well and has been well touted.

Tommy Silver – I can leave a Nicholls handicapper here given they are 0/60,4p in the last 5 years, (esp outside of the National) and that alone makes 10s short enough to my eye. He has to prove he is up to a race of this nature- frenetic, and surrounded by horses with little room. He may pass that test and is lightly raced. The yard are in form but I wonder if he is just too inexperienced.

Overtown Express – i’ll mention him because anyone who read one of Gavin Priestley’s free blog posts may have noted the very good record of horses that ran at the Uttoxeter Midlands National meeting last time out. There is a case to just back all such runners EW on the evidence of the last 10 years or so. This one could run well but I question his attitude for a scrap but there will be some pace to aim at and he may enjoy this track. His jumping can be iffy also and given how frenetic this may be he will have to be on point. 14s is ok. Another who you could make a case for!

Bentelimar- I suppose I should mention him given he is 10s – he’s had enough chances in winnable races recently for me and i’m happy to leave at that price. They reach for the CP which do need to make a difference but he was poor enough the last day.

I was happy to leave the rest well alone.. BUT…the last two races I have tipped in, I haven’t mentioned the winner at all in the write up, which is a punch in the face for my professional pride if nothing else. So, it may be a case of ignoring all of the above and simple backing… Vosne R /  Robinshill / Wisty / Savello / Noche D R  ! I couldn’t have any of them for one reason or another but this is a strange handicap, where quite literally anything could happen and has done over the years.

PACE… Gino Trail will blast off. Theflyingportrait will try and keep tabs, hopefully just behind and in the right place to pounce if Gino then folds. Robbie Power should have Sizing just off the pace, not too far back with any luck, and Baby King may not be far behind that. IF able to hold their positions, none of them are hold up types which I never like around here over fences, or generally in chases. No excuses.

Gl whatever you play on, or if at all!

Josh

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers

4.40 Aintree – Bun Dorran

Kerry Lee Chasers

4.40 Aintree – Gino Trail (12/1<)

 

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As discussed, any tips at Aintree in the handicap chases (inc Grand National) will be on the free posts… everything else is in the Members’ post… no other tips today but i’ve been ‘through the card’ and there is a preview video also, as well as plenty of chat in the comments,as there always is, many probably making more sense than me! Don’t forget you can take a 7 week (7 weeks!) trial for just £7 HERE>>> Come on, join the fun… 🙂

 

FREE Foxhunters’ Chase preview HERE>>> 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

22 Comments

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  • Thanks to Martin and Paul for their comments on my plays on the Betfair bowl.

    I am playing in this race after watching the videos of the gold cup
    which to my judgement was a brutal race.

    Time will tell if this is the correct call, Henderson obviously thinks differently
    and the fact that he is prepared to risk Mite Bite could mean his judgement is better than mine.

    I am more than happy to take on any gold cup runner at Aintree.

    PETER 5 months ago Reply


    • Might bite proved to good but clan des obeaux nicked a place.
      Brain power and Apples Shakira ran poorly so nose slightly in front

      Tea for two and Definately Red didn’t do much for the horses beaten in the gold cup
      laying anable fly in the national

      PETER 5 months ago Reply


  • I feel a bit sheepish writing about a 2yo maiden at Chelmsford when Aintree.

    I can’t be too disappointed with the result from Kempton last Saturday. I should have made it a no bet race as the two I fancied to disrupt the top three rated (all debutants) finished 1st and 3rd. The top rated Luchador was hampered turning for home and was only beaten a short head into 4th.
    Other than the first three Luchador, Disruptor and Dixieland may well also win an early season 2yo race but doubt there were any stars here.
    On to today where 7 runners contest the 5.45 at Chelmsford.
    Ratings
    1= Blasim, Lady Prancealot
    2= Harperelle, Piccothepack
    1/6th pt combo tricast Lady Prancealot, Harperelle, Piccothepack (Harperelle Non runner – No Bet)
    Both Blasim and Piccothepack are debutants. The win is likely to be contested for by Lady Prancealot and Harperelle. Harperelle has by far the best draw in 1 where LP is in 7. Harperelle is by ultra cheap sire Burwaaz who only won 1 of 19 but that was an early season 5f race. Harperelle ran 2nd at 20/1 in a Cl2 at Newcastle beating the Mark Johnston favourite into 3rd. It looked a very genuine performance and from the best draw she looks the most likely winner providing she handles the bend. Lady Prancealot looked genuine too, but was her novice auction at Lingfield a much lesser race? The times were both ok.
    The most likely one to be contesting the places is Fahey newcomer Piccothepack.
    I can’t see any value in trying to predict the winner, it should be between Lady Prancealot and Harperelle. The argument for LP is that Evans 2yos always come on a lot for their first run and she was good fto, against she is drawn 7. Karl Burke is more likely to have them whizzed up for a fto win than Evans but also capable of developing them with racing and Harperelle is best drawn. Maybe they’ll take each other on and set it up for something else which would be either Blasim or Piccothepack.
    Curses just seen that Harperelle is a non runner. Will post this up in case anyone is interested. A no bet race.
    Hugh

    alpha2 5 months ago Reply


  • not mine but an interesting read

    —————–
    AINTREE STATS BASED ON LAST 4 YEARS

    ——————

    1.45 FINIANS OSCAR 9/2

    2.20 PADLEYOUROWNCANOE 33/1

    2.50 Sizing Cadalco 100/1
    (does not meet the criteria below)

    4.05 GRAND VISION 4/1

    4.40 SIZING PLATINUM 20/1

    Colin Tizzard at Aintree

    His runners could probably be backed blind at the meeting this week

    If you wanted to drill down a bit further

    Focus on those of his runners that finished

    1st or 2nd on one of their last 3 starts,

    This has produced the following set of results

    8 winners from 18 runners 44% S/R +54.99

    + 2 placed A 56% Place S/R

    ——————

    2.50 MIGHT BITE 10/11

    NICKY HENDERSON at Aintree

    Looking at those of his runners

    Starting 14/1 and under, that last ran within the last 30-days

    and finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.

    Has produced the following results

    7 winners from 20 runners 35% +23.56

    + 6 placed A 65% place S/R

    ————————–

    Another of TIZZARDS sent here on it’s own
    I wonder if?

    TAUNTON 3.15 THE CIDER MAKER 5/1

    ———————-

    Cliff 5 months ago Reply


  • Cliff,

    Would you have any concerns that the soft/heavy ground this year will affect the Tizzard runners?
    My thinking would be in previous years his runners improved for decent spring ground which obviously they’re not gonna get this time around.

    Joe H 5 months ago Reply


    • Recent form for Tizzard is not great.

      martin colwell 5 months ago Reply


  • Cliff,

    Thanks for that useful information. I’m going to back paddleyourowncanue as it’s 3 times the price of Nuba yet finished close up behind in the Fred Winter. Also Ben A has noted that those horses from said race that finished 4th or worse have a better record in non h’caps after.

    reillysmiley 5 months ago Reply


    • good thinking regarding the going

      Todays runners the going shouldn’t be a worry

      Having checked each horse
      They have all won or placed on good to soft or worse.

      it don’t make them win i know but it helps.

      i just thought at the prices they are all betable e-w

      Cliff 5 months ago Reply


      • GO CLIFF ( my kinda bets ) !
        I have already had Paddleyourowncanoe 11/1 w/o the 2 favs B365 – Sizing Cadalco 40/1 4places ew extra market and the 100/1 for dbls & trbl B365 / finally I have Clyne 3-25 @ 20/1 w/o the fav B365.
        EW Singles / Dbls / Trbls etc…. All To Small Stakes for Big Returns.
        Finians Oscar too short for my stakes and the big fields are a minefield.
        Good Luck To All ( especially my sister ) :0)
        Should be a great 3 days racing………

        Kevin Gibbard 5 months ago Reply


        • Sizing Cadelco placed @ 40/1 and Clyne placed @ 20/1 :0)

          Kevin Gibbard 5 months ago Reply


  • AW BETS
    First of all said after a disaster at Southwell said that i would not back at the meeting again until it had been resurfaced sods law the next meeting 2 bets 2 winners 8/1 and 11/4,have decided to back there today.
    Southwell
    3.00 Pearl Acclaim
    3.00 Archimedes
    4.15 La Fortuna
    Chelmsford
    6.15 Medici Banchiere
    7.15 Maratha
    7.45 Zac Brown
    8.15 Powerful Dream
    8.15 Zipedeedodah

    colin leafe 5 months ago Reply


    • Yesterday on one of the blogs I wrote about Tipsters and if you follow them you have to back all of their selection to the relevant stakes until you give up on them if ever. using Colin’s selections yesterday as an example there were 10 selections, 9 losers and a 12/1 early price BOG winner. So at £20 win stakes (there was a 40/1 shot in there) we made a profit of £60 on the day. I use it as an example as the first five selections lost and some may have given up at that stage and been £100 down but sticking to it with discipline gives a profit of £60 on the day instead of a loss if you give up half way through.

      martin colwell 5 months ago Reply


      • Thanks Martin very well put, digging out the scratched record that is why you need a betting bank 50 times your stake and then nothing to worry about.
        Put my bets on when checking that there are no odds on at the time of putting them up,do not bother about watching them get on with the day.
        That’s the way to do it! who said that for i cannot think the brains gone dead.
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 5 months ago Reply


    • Hi Colin

      totals up until 5th April using your initial, basic idea but without any ratings analysis gives the surprising figures in light of your Southwell comment….the figures are only for this year (2018) and they are still providing an average of between 35-40 winners in each of the first three months…..you and they are doing very well, it’s a very good idea and I thank you for providing the final selections

      Southwell 30 wins
      Chelmsford 25 wins
      Lingfield 25 wins
      Wolverhampton 19 wins
      Kempton 11 wins
      Newcastle 7 wins

      Norman 5 months ago Reply


      • Cheers Norman for that insight it was that southwell meeting where 13 bets and only one winner the sand looked a lot deeper to me and sod me the next meeting 2 bets 8/1 and 11/4,so could have been another 10.75 points in the bank.
        Must ring Southwell to find out when they are starting the resurfacing.
        After those figures pleased decided to back them today win or lose.
        Thank You
        Colin

        colin leafe 5 months ago Reply


        • Personally, I’d like to start a protest against ARC’s resurfacing of S’well.
          A unique option will be lost for some horses.
          Variety is the spice of life, after all.

          chrisrees 5 months ago Reply


    • Nice winners today Colin 🙂

      Nige C 5 months ago Reply


  • Could not agree more.

    Turf the current Fibresand and make it a proper NH track, move the Flat to the inner current NH track.

    They are having lights installed so become first floodlit NH/Turf Flat track in UK and with inbestment in state of the art covers could run most of the year.

    Far better than AW fodder in winter especially evenings.

    If horses were meant to run on artificial surfaces Ireland and UK would be desert and not beautiful green grass!

    Ian SP2A 5 months ago Reply


  • Ben, it is just my own thoughts and I think there is absolutely no chance of it happening.

    I do think there is a gaping hole for a dual purpose Turf NH/Turf Flat track with lights. Logically, it would have to be an “oval” like Southwell. My logic in terms of lighting comes from the massive technical improvements and seeing so many greyhound/speedway tracks in that format with the lights between the two and the recent improvement in “covers” would also be a great asset.

    I think when AW came in, there was still the idea you could stage NH Hurdles on AW surface, a few tracks tried it, but the injury/death rate was awful.

    I think we may end up at some point with a 50/50 AW/Turf NH track somewhere, Musselburgh; Kempton and Fontwell are already running with 5-10% AW corners to avoid slipping.

    I think the logical places to try it in terms of configuration and “catchment area” may be likes of Worcester and Haydock (would just have to reconfigure existing Turf tracks). Of the AW tracks, surely they missed a great chance to do it at Newcastle? and if they had just left a bit more space; could be done at Wolverhampton, which had NH b4 the AW rebuild.

    Can’t think of anywhere better than Southwell though. If they don’t want Fibresand, we already have 2 x Tapeta and 3x Polytrack and imho that is more than enough!

    I have another long term bee in my bonnet and that is complete lack of Turf Flat and NH track in West Midlands conurbation , Wolves is AW; Uttoxeter/Warwick and Ludlow/Hereford/Worcester “on edge” of a huge conurbation. If i had £100m like Dai Walters; I would look at somewhere like Sutton Park Sutton Coldfield Birmingham- largest Urban Park in terms of size in Europe. Shame over 10,000,000 people don’t have access to Turf Racing in their midst.

    Dreamland though I’m afraid. Birmingham had a track at Bromford Bridge – closed in 1960’s places like Atherstone;Lichfield; Stourbridge; had Courses 200 years ago, we need one now!

    We do have an excellent Point 2 Point at Chaddesley Corbett, but that is very rural!

    Ian@SP2A 5 months ago Reply


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