Members Daily Post: 12/04/18 (complete)

Aintree Day 1 + video ,Section 1 + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Aintree 

4.40 – Sizing Platinum (hncp c)  20/1 S2A  UP

 

Taunton

4.30 – Night of Sin (hncp h) I1 G3 6/1   UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

 

NONE.

Had I not tipped Sizing Platinum below i’d have had a go here no doubt. With any luck he can build on the impressive stats for ‘S2A’  (Section 1 ‘JUMPS’ qualifier, 16/1-25/1 morning prices, +65 points BFSP 1 point win in 2018, +55 points 1pt EW BOG/bookies… early days, but a 25% win/place SR in the year to date from a small enough sample, so don’t go diving in but a decent starting point for now, if nothing else) 

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Blog comment… i’m not one to pat myself on the back too much and there is plenty that can always be better in these parts, but every now and then I read a members’ comment which makes me smile, and the below from Joe H is just that, as it captures the purpose of our existence in this little corner of the racing world… so, i’ll indulge for a moment 🙂

Hi Josh,

I said it before but I’m happy to repeat….the wisdom of racing available on this site is worth the fee alone (as most on here would agree).
I’ve learned more in the last 18 months than the previous 15yrs, that’s down largely to your approach Josh as well as the regular posters.
I started keeping proper records since last Sept and I’m up 300pts since (covering a range of systems/tips).
For anyone newly signed up, there’s a lot to digest initially but stick with it, listen to Josh + the regular posters and I promise you won’t need to look anywhere else for racing info/tips in the future.
My own punting is showing profit over the last 3 months, another 3 or so I might join the party for tips for the new NH season.
Keep up the good work Josh!

Another cheque is in the post, thanks Joe.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A Honeyball

5.15 Aint – Duhallow Gesture (m1, 10/1< guide) 3rd

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.40 Aint – Bun Doran (m1/3/4) UP

5.15 Aint – Ceara Be (m1) DNQ

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

4.30 Taunt – Eureu Du Boulay UP

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree GN Meeting 2018

Final Report: READ HERE>>>

I’ve assembled everything into one place.. the Grand National trends/stats, handicap hurdles and some other stats from a previous report, as previously seen. + also now the stats/trends for the three other handicap chases.

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AINTREE DAY 1 

Day 1 Video Preview... only the 35 minutes long! 🙂

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Notes

(my ‘going to the races, what should we waste some change on pokes!’) (all touched on in video) 

These are starting points and whatever you do, bar the Tips if you follow my tipping, do not just follow me in blind! It’s likely I will try and use my dodgy ‘Paddock Eye’ to pick out the odd one track-side also… Right, that’s enough caveats…

1.45 – Brain Power

2.20 – Nube Negra EW (reverse forecast with Apples S ??) Apples S to win.

2.50 – Definitly Red for interest, Tea for Two for £2 tote, for fun. All about whether Might Bite is over Cheltenham, the rest don’t have a chance if he is.

3.25 – My Tent Or Yours / Clyne EW (for change!) (just on that Gavin P ‘ran at Midlands National Meeting LTO’ angle)

4.05 – Grand Vision (a tad more than change on him at 11/2 – I think he could be the nap of the day! 4s arguably short.) + Barrakilla

 

4.40 

(write ups in free post to come, they will count in the free post tipping ledger, some depth in the video above, I think i’ve gone mad…)

TIPS 

Baby King – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365) 20/1 (gen)

Sizing Platinum – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

The Flying Portrait – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) (send for the white coats!)

 

5.15 – Duhallow Gesture / Meep Meep / Midnightreferendum / Zakharova

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I will not be in shock if I come away from day 1 bloodied, bruised and maybe not with a placed horse to my name! It does go like that often enough at the track for me, but there is plenty of method to the madness above and worst case scenario, Grand Vision will pay for all the other losers 🙂 

There are no qualifiers against the one ‘micro’ in the stats report above.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. i’ll get mine in first , but first is definitely not best 🙂
    Aintree day 1
    1-45, can’t see past Cyraname 5-2 unoriginal i know.
    2-20. no chance on paper with Apple’s Shakira if following form line through Nube Negra but Paddlemycanoe 33-1 ew could still be improving and i’m willing to take a chance at the price.
    2-50, Double Shuffle 9-1 comes into this fresh and could make the most of that versus Cheltenham runners.
    3-25, not one for me to risk any money but a class field well worth watching.
    4-05, i’m going for Barrakilla 10-1 ew purely on the name as i live in Barracliffe.
    4-40. Bun Doran 7-1 will be my main bet with ew savers on Robinshill 16-1 and Bentalimar 14-1.
    good luck all with your selections lets hope they all come home safe.

  2. Tea For Two Aintree Thursday 14:50 1pt e/w Price taken 14/1
    Tommy Silver Aintree Thursday 16:40 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1

  3. For those of you looking for some value bets in the Grand National I suggest opening an account with 188bet who will be paying 8 places, from tomorrow 12pm onwards.

  4. My £5 fun bets for day 1 at Aintree

    1:45 FINIAN’S OSCAR
    2:20 BEAU GOSSE e/w
    2:50 DOUBLE SHUFFLE e/w
    3:25 CLYNE e/w
    4:05 UNIONISTE
    4:40 DOITFORTHEVILLAGE
    5:15 POSH TRISH

    Not tips just my fancies

  5. Well here we are ready for another rollercoaster ride and then getting off at the end and not knowing which way you’re facing?
    I love Aintree, maybe it’s because it’s just down the road, or the fact i have watched Champions with John Hurt in that many times I know the words off by heart.
    I know the fences have been dumbed down, but, what other race in Britain can say we can have 40 horses lined up and ready with reserves to make sure we as punters/the general public get maximum enjoyment!
    I went in the early 90`s when they were threatening to shut the place down, it nearly happened , but, ever so glad it didn’t, so, I for one will be embracing this meeting with all the pomp and ceremony it deserves!
    Especially after all the abandoned meetings we have had to put up with before we have got here!
    On to the “selections” then…Josh isn`t going to like me…
    16:05 Aintree
    ON THE FRINGE 9/1
    One of the best Hunter chasers around in the past and has won this previously.Think the white coat brigade need to come for me because I know looking at it maybe looks “past it”, but, all his best form has come with cut in the ground and with one of the top amateur ladies on board i believe he will be rejuvenated at his favourite track!!
    BARRAKILLA 12/1
    This horses defeat of Wells De Lune (which reopposes here) looks the key piece of form. WDL won its next race easily and that level of form stands up really well in the context of this race. Crucially that was Barrakilla’s 1st run for its new stable and Fergal O’Brien looks to have improved the horse. Forget the 2nd in a muddling 3 runner race last time out and the 12/1 starts to look very tempting. Strong jockey booked who was on board for that win and looks great value.
    16:40 Aintree
    SIZING PLATINUM 20/1
    Sizing Platinum looks an each way hopeful, for a tough looking race.
    Although well beaten at Cheltenham, he should improve with that run under his belt.
    Last year was similarly well beaten in the same race he contested this year, then went on to run a much better race at Punchestown.
    BABY KING 25/1
    25/1 is an insulting price for a horse which has won over c&d as recently as just 5 months ago. Adrian Heskin could arguably have ridden 8/1 shot Bun Doran but has stuck with Baby King and the style of that win suggest the horse could go in again off this 5lb higher mark. The horse has had a 47 day break and usually runs its best races after such a decent break. All wins have been on soft or heavy and will surely go off shorter than 25/1.

    All the best with whatever you back today!!

      1. Top work Stewart…well, at least you, Chris M and I can keep each other company when going for our medical examination into ‘what the hell where you thinking backing those rags!’
        GL

    1. Well said Stewart…..I went from a kid with me ma…Jump Sunday too. lol.

      Mine today top 2/3/4 Ratings
      1.45..Cyrname….Brain Power
      2.20. Apples Shakira….We Have a Dream…..Ruba Negra,
      2.50. Might Bite….Bristol De Mai.
      3.25 The New One…My Tent Or Yours….Supasundae.
      4.05.. Grand Vision…Balnaslow…Unioniste…Wonderful Charm.
      4.40.. King Socks…Tommy Silver..Theinval…Bun Doran.
      5.15.. Getaway Katie Mai….Posh Trish..Dissavril…Duhallow Gesture.

      All laden with danger as the ratings are historical….I uuse trends for tne Nationa meeting, Best of luck all.

      Tony Mc.

  6. Can I just say having been a member for a while now, and as an avid reader more than a contributor, what an excellent site this is and, equally as importantly, what an excellent community spirit there is here.
    Josh you deserve all the success that will inevitably come your way!
    Today, the booking of Mr Codd looks significant and Grand Vision will carry my money. Tea for Two does look a big price too! As a confirmed Twista holic it would be lovely to see Ginge get in the National, big field, heavy ground, owners from up there, what a story it could be ..
    Thanks again all
    Doug

  7. Hi josh I haven’t been in touch for a while. But I am a huge anything Aintree/GN fan & will be in the princess royal stand and attending for the 29th year so thought I would get involved with my selections, no write ups just followed some trends
    Brain power, Nube Negra, definitely red, supasundae, barrakilla & wonderful charm, theinval & baby king & meep meep with cedar valley
    Thanks to you & all the other members who contribute, I watch from afar because I’m a little or a lot out of my depth
    Well done at Cheltenham & hope you enjoy your day
    Harry

    1. Cheers Harry,
      You may see me in the Princess Royal! I’m in the ‘roof’ and during races always loiter in the top right hand corner as you face the track. A great vantage point!
      Plenty with live chances there to my eyes, best of luck,
      Josh

      1. I’ll try & find you josh I’m in the roof also must be the best view in racing.
        My mate comes over from Gibraltar and rates it way higher than Cheltenham which he attends every year
        Just getting off the train from preston
        Good luck

  8. Bet365 have started their half your money back offer from midnight Thursday for bets on the National.

    If you’ve backed Josh’s tip @ 33s Milansbar it is still available at that price plus you get half your stake back now.

    1. 365 offer currently to 5 places, from midday tomorrow you can apparently select up to ten places! Wonder how much value will disappear before then?

  9. Based on the stats etc I wrote the other day, this is what they suggest for today (complete with potential for egg on face from the word go!)

    13:45:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO – Brain Power (IRE)
    13:45:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Cyrname (FR)
    13:45:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree – Finians Oscar (IRE)
    13:45:00 (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 – Finians Oscar (IRE)
    13:45:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Modus

    14:20:00 (82) Henderson – Aintree – Apples Shakira (FR)
    14:20:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Malaya (FR)
    14:20:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO – Nube Negra (SPA)
    14:20:00 (82) Henderson – Aintree – We Have A Dream (FR)

    14:50:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
    14:50:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO – Might Bite (IRE)
    14:50:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree – Sizing Codelco (IRE)

    15:25:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO – Supasundae

    16:05:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Unioniste (FR)
    16:05:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Wonderful Charm (FR)

    16:40:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO – Gino Trail (IRE) : also a Kerry Lee trained Irish chaser!
    16:40:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree – Sizing Platinum (IRE)
    16:40:00 (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 – Theinval (FR)
    16:40:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Tommy Silver (FR)

    17:15:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays – Posh Trish (IRE)

    I’m not really into laying, so the “lays” above are just “avoids” for me, unless they were short enough to lay without risking singed digits.

    Chris

    PS Theflyingportrait also appears on another micro I have saved too!

    1. Top stuff Chris, much appreciated. At least their is method to our collective madness, even if I do end up having to walk home! GL

  10. Start off with the 2:50 Aintree. Although Might Bite, if turns up, has this race in the bag, there is still a lot of value in the rest of the field.

    Shortlist: Definitly Red/Double Shuffle/Tea For Two
    Definitly Red; a horse I really like to watch but not on his Gold Cup performance where the ground was just a little too soft for him. If we put that Gold Cup performance behind him we can see he won over C&D back in December in heavier ground than today. He will appreciate the flatter track here and on previous form has to be a contender. Double Shuffle; pulled out the night before the Gold Cup so is certainly the more fresher of the runners today. Has been in the thick of things in his last 3 starts and at good prices but with only one of those places coming within 1f of today’s trip, I have some questions over his ability to go the trip. Even based on that he probably should be a few clicks less in the market. Tea For Two; loves the tight flat tracks so today will suit. Won this race last year last year and followed that up with a nice performance finishing 3rd at Kempton in the King George. The Gold Cup again is one we can forget as he really does not like that kind of track. Well suited to trip and going so no worries there, should be good EW value

    Selections:
    0.5pt EW – Definitly Red (8/1 gen)
    0.5pt EW – Tea For Two (14/1 Lad, WH, 12/1 gen)

    1. Good work with the Bailey horse yesterday Chris, GL today, those two will hopefully give us all a run for our money! This race is a graveyard for short priced favs so here’s hoping.

      1. Thanks, was due a nice winner after missing out on two nice priced winners that were in my shortlist but never made selection. GL to you too, either be getting the beers in or wondering why we even bothered if Might Bite wins now

    2. Was looking at the 3:15 Taunton but cant see anything winning outside the top 2, both are to short for me to be backing. So here are 2 selections that came from a micro system I read somewhere (can’t for the life of me remember where now).

      3:25 Aintree – Clyne 1/4pt EW (40/1 Bet365, 33/1 gen) {3 places}
      4:40 Aintree – Overtown Express 1/4pt EW (16/1 Bet365, 14/1 gen) {4 places}

    1. I do not get it with Hugh. Although he has picked up a bit recently he has not been profitable for a while now. Same as Gary O’Brien. Perhaps readers do not have a memory re past results. Perhaps they believe the talk ups on ATR?

      I have just watched The Opening Show on ITV. For the older folks in the audience does anyone remember Hinge and Bracket (Google if you wish)? Reborn as Andrew Thornton and Mat Chapman.

      Moan over.

    2. Backed the other two but not Flying Portrait.
      Hugh Taylor recorded his bets a few years ago and you would be fortunate if you broke even at Bookmakers SP in a year.
      For the life of me cannot understand why people rave about him and Pricewise at least Hugh does put up his results at mickey mouse prices that hardly anyone can achieve.

        1. It was a couple of years ago recorded them for 2 years not being a laying man would not know.
          Does he produce better results at Aintree,Cheltenham, Goodwood, Ascot etc top class meetings where the betting market is stronger and the prices do not disappear.

        2. Hugh does go for a few big price runners and so if one goes in the Laying system is hit by a torpedo. You would need to be able to take such an occasional hit bankroll wise.

  11. Todays tips – dont get too excited, I am 13.6 points down in April so far.

    1.45 Finians Oscar 9/2 for 2 points win. Course form and I do not rate Brain Power and Cyrname is too short in the betting.
    2.20 Nube Negra 11/1 1 point each way. Looks value to be in the first three based upon his previous runs.
    3.25 L’Ami Serge 13/2 1 point each way. An old rogue but can tank around here and hang about at the finish I think.
    4.40 Overtown Express 14/1 1 point each way. An open race but this horse can go at a good pace on a course that should suit.

    Good luck.

  12. Just an interesting addendum for the Nicholls stats but his 5/6 yr old runners at the meeting over 2m going off at 5/1 or less are 5/10, 9p so his fancied runners are worth looking at closer than the rest.

  13. GL everyone

    Arrows all over the place but with some reasoning and following all the input from Josh and forum.

    13:45 Cryname
    14:20 we have a dream / gumball ew
    14:50 Might Bite too short so gone for
    Tea for two & Clan Des Obeaux
    15:25 Supasundae too short, gone for
    Cyrus Darius & Clyne
    16:05 Grand Vision, Barrakilla & Eddies Miracle
    16:40 Theinval, + Josh’s selections
    17:15 Dissavril & Posh Trish

  14. Hendo is in form then! The Nicholls horses are not performing at Aintree again, so far.

    My blind backing of Hendo is paying off. Tizzard has had a winner as well and so the stats I have are holding up well early.

    1. I disagree on Nicholls. Based on his rating being 17lbs inferior to Might Bite, Clan performed as well as anything else in the Bowl. Could argue on rating he performed better than anything else in the race barring maybe Sizing.

      1. Yes, I am being cold hearted and judging everyone on winners. CDO ran a good race for a place. Might Bite is a star and so big praise to Native River for beating him in the Gold Cup.

  15. Happy enough with how the stats played out…

    13:45:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree Finians Oscar (IRE) ===WON AT 4.11===
    13:45:00 (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 Finians Oscar (IRE) ===WON AT 4.11===
    13:45:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO Brain Power (IRE) FELL

    14:20:00 (82) Henderson – Aintree We Have A Dream (FR) ===WON AT 3.00===
    14:20:00 (82) Henderson – Aintree Apples Shakira (FR) 3RD
    14:20:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO Nube Negra (SPA) 5TH

    14:50:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO Might Bite (IRE) ===WON AT 1.88===
    14:50:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree Sizing Codelco (IRE) 4TH

    15:25:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO Supasundae 2ND
    NO WINNER HERE BUT HENDERSON’S WON!

    16:40:00 (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 Theinval (FR) 2ND
    16:40:00 (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO Gino Trail (IRE) 3RD
    16:40:00 (89) Tizzard – Aintree Sizing Platinum (IRE) 6TH
    COUPLE OF NICE PLACERS

    13:45:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Cyrname (FR) 4TH
    13:45:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Modus 5TH
    14:20:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Malaya (FR) 8TH
    14:50:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Clan Des Obeaux (FR) 3RD
    16:05:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Wonderful Charm (FR) 7TH
    16:05:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Unioniste (FR) 11TH
    16:40:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Tommy Silver (FR) PU
    17:15:00 (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays Posh Trish (IRE) 10TH

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