(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018: + 126…2018 free..6/53,16p, +34, Festival week: +92)
3.00 Kelso – Seldom Inn – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) (1/4 odds Bet365, 1/5 others)
This will be the only 3m+ chase tipping action on Saturday but we have a decent race in store here and this one’s price just felt wrong to me- in my judgement he shouldn’t be 10/1 and is a few points too big, whereas everything else felt about right to my at times dodgy value eyes.
I want to take us back to this race last year, where he came a gallant 7l second to today’s join fav, Yala Enki. They carried 11-10 and 11-11 respectively that day but this year there is a 12lb swing, with Yala carrying 11-12 and Seldom Inn carrying 10-13. IF they both ran their race again, they should be a tad closer! That isn’t really the main reason for having a go but I thought it was interesting enough, in terms of price disparity between the two. Yala has also had 3/4 more runs this season I think than he did when coming into this race last year, which may have some impact come the climb to the line. It may not. Of course something may beat the pair of them.
Seldom Inn is 3/7 at the track and in 7 runs here has only finished out of the places once. He is 2/5,4p here over fences. His general consistency, his liking for this place, and the suspicion that he needs a bit of cajoling to get his head in front, has made me fetch for a rare EW wager. We all know he’ll now come 4th, losing out in a 3rd place photo by a nose! I just have the suspicion, unlike any other horse in the race, that this has been a plan and maybe the plan all season- especially given his two runs over hurdles which could have been to protect his chase mark/keep him ticking over or to rekindle some enthusiasm. The last day was a conditions chase where he had to give the others weight when if in a handicap he would have received weight. He didn’t run great but not awful either and I suspect he was outclassed possibly over a trip too short. I’m not sure the yard was going that well at the time from memory either but I could be talking nonsense there. In any case his mark has come down 3lb and he may have been freshened up since with a 51 day break. It could be the horse is best after longer breaks, such as this. This trainer is more than adept at readying a horse after every length of break. Trainer and Jockey are 3/13,6p with all runners here, and two of those have been with this horse. Hughes will have some pace to track which may suit the horse better and I thought he could smuggle him into it and pick up the pieces late. His freshness could be an asset and despite his age he’s only had 11 chase runs, 0/4,2p in handicap chases.
For me, 10/1 seemed a bit big, especially given that plenty of these have questions to answer also. I do have a slight niggle about his attitude and willingness to go through with it, hence the timid EW stab! 🙂
Of the rest…
Well Yala Enki has a solid chance at 9/2 but that seemed about right to me. He’s had a hard enough season and is on a career high handicap mark, which he has to prove he is up to. He may well do that but i’d want a bigger price to find out. He didn’t exactly have an easy race at Cheltenham either, but he ran well enough. He will be up there and try to lead these.
Likewise Baywing has a solid chance but his improvement the last day came from a marathon trip and going a slower pace/being surrounded by horses, that allowed him to jump the best he’s ever done. That was the time to back him and I missed him. He could take this and if over his last race has the profile to do so- he is unexposed enough over fences and it may be he is just a better chaser now. He was beaten in this last year but is undoubtedly a better horse on the evidence of that last run. They usually hold him up and he will have to close on those in front at some point. Hopefully he doesn’t take a fence or two in the process. Of the two at the top I think i’d fancy him, his 42 break should hopefully be long enough after his win the last day although you never know until they run again.
I can live with both of those two winning at 9/2, unbacked. As I can Wild West Wind who may go close, however George is only 1/30 odd in the last 30 days and this horse doesn’t like completing. I didn’t like how quickly he stopped at Haydock, with a heavy fall the run before that and an UR LTO. Not sure how you can back him at 11/2 with confidence- I may want that price just for him to complete! He is a lightly raced chaser though so you never fall of your seat when that type wins, but this game’s all about price and my judgement is that his isn’t big enough for me.
Chic Name doesn’t seem an overly generous price either given his lack of chase experience and he needs to prove both his stamina and whether he is up to C2. He is the sort you’d be interested in at 10s/12s+ just because he does have an intriguing profile. Another who may run well in an open race but I didn’t like his price. He had a hard enough race at Cheltenham also. For those four just mentioned, i’m not sure this has been a target/plan, whereas I think it may have been for the selection.
Lake View Lad- well Alexander is now 0/36,4p with all runners in C2s in the last 5 years and this one has class and stamina to prove. I have a niggle over both and at single figures I was happy to leave. But he has been consistent and is a chaser in form, and that counts for plenty in races like this.
For one reason or another I couldn’t have the other four but knowing my luck one of them will now pop up and leave me red faced! I’ll happily admit I wasn’t very close to picking any of them.
I think that’s the lot… PACE.. well Yala will try and lead and Seldom Inn may not be far away, he can race prominently. Hopefully it’s clear from a long way out that it’s 3rd place at worst and then we can go from there! I wonder if they may use Harry The Viking to try and beat up anything else that goes forward.. I don’t think he has the pace for these trips anymore and doesn’t like heavy ground much- I can probably live with the old boy winning at 12s, it’s when he wins at 25s as with two starts ago that it really hurts!
Right, that will do, GL with any bets,
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.40 Uttox- Town Parks
That will be the lot for Saturday.
Not the best quality on offer but have you seen what’s coming up for the next four Saturdays?? 🙂
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