Members Daily Post: 07/04/18 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Kelso

1.50 –

Teddy Tee (nov hncp) 14,30 H1 I3 G1 9/4 S4 UP

Hills of Dubai (nov hncp) w2 H1 I3 G3 3/1 S4 UP

3.00 – Baywing (all hncps + hncp c) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I1 G3 5/1 S3A S4  2nd 

3.35 –

Takingrisks (all hncps) w1 14,30 13/2 3rd 

Western Rules (all hncps) w1 14,30 G1 6/1  S1 UP

4.10 – Vengeur De Guye (m1/m1+m2) 7/1 2nd

4.45 –

Haul Us In (m1/m1) w1 w2 H1 I3 G3 3/1 S4  WON 3/1>5/2 

Maraweh (m1) 16/1 S2A UP

 

Uttoxeter

4.15 –

Loch Linnhe (all hncps + m2) ES H3 I3 G1 13/2 S3 S4  UP

Arden Denis (hncp h + m1) ES H3 G3 7/1 S3  UP

 

Fakenham 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/48,18p, +1.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None.

Nothing at the prices on this page I wish to ‘tip’ really.

You’ll see i’ve tipped up Seldom Inn at 10/1 in the Free post… I do think Baywing is the main danger, provided he is over his last race- i suspect he is just a better chaser now but there is a few this trip is on the short side, or in any case the pace they go over these sort of trips causes him problems with his jumping. But if he runs his race and has a clear round he won’t be far away,and S4 could do with a winner, continuing in a rut although many at the shorter end and arguably little value.

The 3.35 is a bit of a head-scratcher… were the McCain horse below (Lastbutnotleast) a couple of points bigger, 7s, 8s+ I may have tipped her… McCain is 3/8,5p at the track with handicap debutants, 6/20,11p with hurdlers returning after 60+ days off. A case can be made and if a1 she will keep grinding away and could be better than this hurdles mark. she returns to hurdles, first run in a handicap hurdle, steps back up in trip markedly and may well have needed a break. 5s just on the short side for me now though, but that could still be a good price, we shall see!

I’ll mention the 4.15 Uttoxeter… I think both look interesting enough and there is a chance Coleman can get an easy lead on Loch Linnhe – it is a moderate race but both are in form and the Mulholland horse looks like he wants 3m+ on some of his efforts. Maybe they will be fighting it out but I don’t wish to tip both in that for 1 point each and if i pick one, we know the other wins. Hopefully a winner for S4 with Walfords, with a saver on the other maybe!

GL with any bets. It will all step back up a gear from the middle of next week I suspect. Some superb jumps action and the Flat will move up a gear.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.25 Kel – Ubaltique (m2) 16/1 DNQ

3.35 Kel – Lastbutnotleast (m2) (hncp h debut) w2 5/1 UP

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.00 Kel- Chic Name 6/1 UP

D Pipe PU LTO (14/1< guide)

4.50 Uttox – Saint John Henry 7/1 PU

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree GN Meeting 2018: Handicap Hurdle Report

READ HERE>>>

This stats/trends report just looks at the three handicap hurdles that are run at the meeting. I think all handicap hurdles stats shortlist + any tips may just be kept in the Members’ posts, as I’ve decided I don’t want all content to be accessible for free – not as a means of driving people this way but more a recognition to those of you here… the handicap hurdle content may not be much of a bonus but time will tell! I did tip Rather Be at 16s last year, so here’s hoping.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Well..well…well…. I am going to take on/run with Josh on the 15:00 at Kelso…
    Whenever we agree it normally ends well, just hope he doesn’t think I`m pinching his tips..haha!
    I have one more that we all know well on here HTV to go along with HPM last weekend and i had to do him as this may be his last “Hurrah!” before going to graze in a field somewhere, or, occasional PTP meets.
    Reasoning and staking follow.
    HARRY THE VIKING 1pt e/w 14/1 gen
    We all should now how many times we have backed this old boy, he is something of a stalwart around these parts! He has a heart like a lion and runs forever, the heavy ground will play into his favour.
    I read a book called Betting for a living by Nick Mordin quite a few years ago and he always used to say the heavy ground helps these older horses, makes it a level playing field etc.
    To a certain degree i can agree with that, we have all seen Paddy the Oscar at Chepstow,anyways, he will be staying on when all the others have the white flags out and as bottom weight in this and with a 7lb claimer on board he will feel as though he`s riding without a jockey..Rachel McDonald is on board again and she does well with him, if Seldom Inn is a shoe in, then so is HTV…
    SELDOM INN 11/1 PP/ BFR 1pt e/w (now gone, think best is 10/1 gen)
    Everything Josh says on the free post i can`t really argue with, ran a blinding race in this last year when runner up to Yala Enki. Now 12lb better off for a 7 Length beating, and dropped 6lb for a 3rd of 4 here last time out, when trying to make all, Seldom Inn can again run a big race if sitting in midfield, that is very likely with Yala Enki likely to make the running probably along with HTV, we shall see..

    Good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

  2. Absolutely cream-crackered and up early tomorrow so no time for write ups. (been one of these weeks)

    Seldom Inn Kelso Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w 10/1 taken (sorry guys he is proper fucked now and likely won’t make it past the first fence)
    Pollys Pursuit Fakenham Saturday 14:15 1.5pt win 11/2-5/1 taken

    Have also chucked £10 win on both Mt Fitzroy in the 15:05 at Uttoxeter and Katenko in the 16:50 at Uttoxeter.

      1. It was a race that won`t live long in the memory, for me anyway, the ground was atrocious and i think if it had not been the fact that the bookies wanted some kind of racing on turf this weekend, it would have been called off, suppose it was a level playing field for all horses though, just talking through my pocket…

  3. Yesterday’s tip was placed at 7/1 and we are -9.6 points (£96) for April. Today we go with 1.55 Utt, Whispering Harry, 4/1 x 2 points. He drops back to 2 miles, his claimer jockey takes 10LB off, the horse has had a short break and this is a poor race.

    Good luck.

  4. Fakenham 2.50 Royals And Rebels 5/1 1point win
    I took 6/1 last night and would not be surprised if he goes off at half this price.
    I like Bannister riding for Mann and Mann has a 25% sr here over the past 5 years.
    The horse steps back down to 2m5f here and I think this will suit and I get the feeling that he is fancied here after his recent improved performances.
    I was on him 2 runs ago and he actually came through and hit the front around 2 out looking all over the winner but tired quickly and ended up 3rd. Still it was a very promising run and i think the better ground today will suit much more.
    He is likely to be held out the back and ridden quietly until coming through to challenge late on.

  5. First time for putting up my bets, fingers crossed 🙂

    4:00 Fakenham Nikki Steel 1pt E/W
    Always like The Doc horses, carrying little weight, long lay off, Sean Bowen on board
    7:45 Wolverhampton Star Ascending 1pt E/W
    Always like Candlish, this horse is on fire, got to have a poke

      1. Thanks Mike, Star Ascending made up for a pretty rubbish day across the rest – oh and especially the drug out to 14-1 and BOG with 365. Thanks also to Colin for one of his going in too.

        Hope a few people were also on.

        Nige C

        1. * drift of course not drug!! Although the horses are a great one aren’t they? Where is that damned edit button 🙂

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