Free Daily Post: 06/04/18 (complete)

not much again today…





Trainer/jockey combo – live Test

2.05 Font- Newquay Cards (12/1< guide)

2.35 Font – Leo Luna (14/1<)

4.15 Font – Present Times (12/1< guide)



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 responses

  1. Interesting dilemma for those following free Masters Tips on SP2A.

    Opportunity of a 100% ROI cash out after round 1 with Spieth leading by 2 and Kuchar tied for second, with Rory 4th and Mickleson T11 from 6 picks.

    Stick or Twist, the classic gambling conundrum.

    What would our Golf experts do?

    My own personal view (and this is Augusta specific) is having seen what a trick/tricky Course this can be – see Sergio! wow; that 100% ROI by cashing out is just too good to miss.

    What would you do?

    1. STICK
      You have struck the bets and they are performing well the one or two you cash out will be the one that wins and you then will be kicking yourself.
      Back to the old record this is why you need a betting bank,bets struck wait for result

      1. Interesting dilemma but A couple of years ago Speith was well clear and imploded
        on the back nine on the final day to lose

        Greg Norman was 6 shots of Faldo going into the last day and lost.
        McIlroy lead the masters after 3 rounds one year and then shot a massive over par round to be well beaten

        I think the final round in any major is when to take on players who look to be certainties
        the pressure and the thought in their head that they may win can see some remarkable collapses.

        who can forget when Paul Lawrie won the open the hapless French guy could
        have played 4 nine irons and a couple of putts and still won but hit in in the burn took 7 and lost a playoff.

        So If I was in your position I would lay off 20% of my original stake now
        and wait
        Speith is a great golfer who is bang on form so I don’t think he will go out and shoot
        a massive over par round in round 2
        so even a par score would see still right at the top of the leaderboard

        If you look at the scores on day 1 no one other than Speith shot less than 68 so the course
        must be playing pretty tough
        even if Speith has a bad day and shoot 74 at 4 under he will be still right up there
        he has history of winning the event so isn’t a rabbit in the headlights

        The year he blew it will make him on a mission this year to redeem himself.

        soon after McIlroy blew his masters chance he won two majors.

        When and if Speith go odds on in round 4 is the time I think you should lay him
        if you have backed a 10/1 chance and you can lay off at 1/3
        then why let it run risking all your stake
        if you had £100 at 10/1 it makes sense laying £300 @1/3
        any course with dangerous water hazards can rack up massive scores if a player goes wobberly
        but if you have backed a 10/1 and he looks like the winner then you ask is the 2/1
        current value

        1. Speith is 9/4 now from an opening 10/1, 8 places, and so the figures say you should be laying the win part of the bet now.

          1. Speith dropped 3 shots in the first two holes. My lay off for a profit looks like genius now. I will change my name to Einstein.

    2. Augusta is always tricky. Jordan Spieth looks in hot form and as I put him up pre event I am sitting pretty at present. I will now lay off for a decent profit on him, as the course has too many tricks in it to be confident. Bubba, my other selection, is going OK and can push on and place. Kuchar goes well on the course but cannot win a tournament but is a banker top 10/20. I am never content on Rory as he blows too much cold on his hot and cold and nowhere in between game. Mickelson is a three times winner and so you seem to have a good stable this week.

      So to answer your question. It all depends on your stakes. If they are high then cash out and take the profit/lay off Spieth. You can always go in again in some way. For lower stakes let it run and go for the bigger win and have some fun. I usually take the decent profit as I am a full time punter but for lower stakes always let them run.

      I did have Sergio in a tournament match bet and thought that he was playing OK. However the Tin Cup moment was odd! I would have thought that after the first ball goes in the water you then put the next one over the back or to the side and not go for the backspin special? But he did and he put four consecutive shots into the water playing the worldy shot. At least in the film Costner hold his fifth attempt at the shot, whereas Sergio plonked it onto the other side of the green. I did feel sorry for him but as he has $23M in lifetime earnings plus endorsement, I am not too upset for him.

      Anyway, good luck Ian.

    3. just a thought but why not cash out

      and using 50% of your profit rebet them

      if the worst happens and they lose

      your still 50% up

  2. AW BETS
    4.30 Bint Dandy
    5.05 Dutiful Son
    7.10 Fire Fighting
    7.45 Mr Potter
    8.45 Breatoffreshair
    8.45 Showdance Kid
    8.45 Malaysian Boleh

    Another horse that on paper hasn’t done a lot but it is the best bred horse in the race.
    Had been running over 7,8,9,f. Breeding suggests he needs further so the 1m2f maybe the key. Doing something different.
    6/1 in a small field looks generous to me. Gonna have nibble and find out.

  4. I was reading that jockeys at Chelmsford are saying the track is getting old
    and the kickback is worse than Southwell.
    So Although it is officially a Polytrack surface any punter playing there should
    be thinking of at a track like Southwell rather than a track like Lingfied
    and it could be dangerous to trust non Chelmsford form

    For Instance in the 8.15 Irish Minister could be a risky favourite
    as all his form is at Dundalk and he is drawn out very wide

    Kirby is the great jock at the track and may keep him wide out of the kickback all the way
    but if he does will have to run further than the inside runners
    if there is a war up front he could sweep past then all on the outside
    but if something get loose on the front or there is a slow pace and he all pulls
    hard with no cover out wide he could be vulnerable

  5. Thanks for the advice gents much appreciated.

    I will cash out and reinvest 50% then guaranteed a 50% return as worst case scenario.

    I never usually bet on Golf. I used to play quite a lot, it did ones career no harm and used to get invited to some top Courses on Corporate days, such as The Belfrey. Got my handicap down to 8 at one point but it used to bore me rigid to be honest. I was a bit the same with cricket, played to a decent level in teens, had County trial but the thought of playing Saturday/Sunday and midweek nights in summer did not fit with realisation that I could race motor-bikes and chase Scandinavian girls!

    I do enjoy watching Golf though ; love the Ryder Cup and if there is one tournament that does make me angry it is this one!

    This may not land well but I think Augusta is a joke Course. Why?, the greens as they are set up penalise great shots; the holes round Amen Corner are bad for this, worst is the 16th though. Partly modern Clubs but to see a shot land a few feet from a hole (great approach play) and then spin off a “glass green” in to water, imho is not golf, it is a lottery.

    I think there is a fine dividing line between setting up a Course to be a challenge; and setting it up to make players fail, and August crosses that line too often imho. Some of the best golf at Augusta is after heavy rains, when greens are fairer and more receptive. Of course the other thing I don’t like about US golf is the “in the hole” berks and the continuing ability for a US golfer to hit a ball in to a crowd for it to kindly bounce back out, and for any US golfer to do the same to find it “plugged” in a hole under a size 13 boot!

    I always think any sport should be “may the best man/woman/hermaphrodite win on the day” but at Augusta; I think luck plays a bigger percentage than it should do…

    1. Ah I wondered why you were into your biking, it all makes sense now!!! haha. I assume they had higher spec models and couldn’t be caught! 🙂

      1. LOL….I used to travel every Sunday (and most other nights of the week) to ride Speedway – did a full time job too, just mental. On a Sunday I would do 500 mile round trip to Eastbourne. The return journey would often be at around 3am to get to my desk by 8.30am (so much easier before M25).

        There were 2 types of people lived in Eastbourne back then; mostly retired genteel types with nice pensions. However; there was also a summer Scandinavian College for young ladies. Speedway was/is massive in Sweden and other Scandinavian Countries and there were Swedish and Finnish guys Racing at Eastbourne, so plenty of help with the lingo; I will leave it there, its a family Blog haha!

        Unlike my now bald slightly rotund appearance, back in the day I was a bit of a Harry Styles / David Essex look alike – there is a small picture on the SP2A website on the Daily Tipster page; oh me resplendent in leather LOL – oh how I miss those days.

        May be delayed concussion is a perfect aid to picking out 3 mile Point 2 Pointers in a Class 5 at Hereford…not sure!

    2. I do not agree about all the course at Augusta being jokey, but the greens always seem to be over quick to me and hard to get the hang of. A bit like Scandi girls! Like someone else said, the tournament is usually won by a top player and so must be a test of skill. Some players love it, look at the old boy former winners, Fred Couples and Sandy Lyle. OK their wonky back or wooden knees may catch up with them over four rounds but they can still go around the 18 holes well.

      1. I never forgave Sandy Lyle that win and that incredible bunker save at the 18th.

        In a very rare golf bet I had backed Mark Calcavecchia at 50/1!

        Sad the way Sandy form declined so quickly and he never recovered really.

    3. Hi Ian,

      Like racing, golf is a game of opinions and fair play to you for stikcing your head above the parapet with the Augusta comments. An almost mystical air has developed around the tournament in recent years and it is usually frowned upon to make any sort of disparaging comment about it.

      Firstly, I would say that it is an extraordinary place to visit and worth its place at the top of golf’s tree. The majors all offer differing tests and the colours and challenges of Augusta are unique.

      I do take issue with you on the fairness side of the argument, however. The players genuinely love it (although Sergio might have been muttering a little last night!!) and see it as one of the ultimate tests each year. At that level, they would much rather play Augusta under those perfect conditions where they know what surface to expect every time rather than an event at, say, The Belfry where you have a mixture of speeds, surfaces and conditions. The fact that the same players perform consistently well at The Masters year after year suggests that it is less of a lottery than you suggest. Indeed, this would be somewhat backed up by your tips many of whom have a good track record at the course.

      You never want to see what happened to Sergio last night happen to any top-class golfer but my God it made for good TV!

      Totally with you on the fans however – crass, ignorant and rude.



  6. in some ways I agree with you Ian
    but if you look at past winners it is usually won by the very best players

    In the us open which is usually played on courses with masses of rough
    the list of winners isn’t so impressive.

    because Augusta is so demanding to win there you have to have a fantastic

    so many guys who haven’t won it before blow it when in contention on the final day
    I think all the top 100 players have the game to win it but a masters champ needs real belief
    and not crumble when they get a bad break

    so many times here a guy is playing well and drops a shot and very quickly drops 4 or 5
    if you are 1 off the lead and then drop 2 shots it takes massive belief to get your game back on the rails if you haven’t been in the last day pressure cooker of the masters before.

    I start looking for guys who start dropping shots around the 8th onwards on the final day as
    they usually slip out of contention

    1. The top golfers invariably come to the fore in the majors where ball striking ability is paramount – the Masters is unique with the greens but it makes for an interesting challenge. You still need to hit the ball long but it does test all of the skills (driving, approach shots, recovery, putting and an ability to think your way round the course to prove you are the champion.

      I do agree that the morons who constantly shout “your the man” etc should be thrown in the water themselves

  7. The Augusta winner tends not to come from far back. I’ve been up for around the last 15 years there just by hedging.

    6 of my original 12 did well so i now have all the top 15 covered for a win. It doesn’t guarantee big returns but a very good chance of a return. I’ll keep backing any further threats after each round and come out with a small gain.

    I did get 550 on bf exchange for Li which would be nice if it came off!

    I should point out that this is only small stakes and can be dangerous if anyone breaks the trends and comes from a long way back. Good luck all.

  8. Some excellent points of view about Augusta, and I understand all.

    I guess part of my views are based on the fans there, and also just my perception viewpoint that the driving/iron accuracy needed to keep out of deep rough on some of The Open Courses is to me, more skilful, than the short game. Of course if you have both = hey presto.

    I also come from the era of Sevy and Langer, two polar opposites and probably 2 of my favourite sportsmen ever. Both from Countries who at the time had no real Golf traditions at all. Sevy was unique, his brilliance stands equal to anyone in any sport, yet for longevity (he is still winning seniors and still capable on main Tour) Langer is my No 1 sporting hero in any sport.

    Methodical, almost manufactured compared to some, it is his mental toughness I just marvel at; three times he beat the “yips” which simply destroyed many and what he did after Kiawah Island was (well I can’t put it in to words). He was the guy who missed the putt that cost Europe the Ryder Cup in US in most hostile environment you can imagine, the fact he got game to 18th was testament to his skills. I think it would have destroyed the career of most golfers, it wasn’t just him who lost it was the continent of Europe.

    That he came out the following week (when most would have been in hiding) and won on the European Tour by if I recall right 8-10 shots was again (I can’t find words) in terms of the amazing technical and mental strength he had. I know he is/was a very religious man and my all time sporting hero.

    1. Now there’s a mind boggling topic – all time favourite sporting hero! After Ken Wagstaff (Waggy to all long suffering Hull City fans) I would have to be very boring & say Mohammed Ali. He was a class apart in a time when boxing was a true sport & was a genuine character, known to all, in a time long before the menace that is known as Social Media was ever introduced.

  9. Bit surprised at you Ian supporting this game where upper class twits rule the roost. I would close all golf clubs down for a week,then re open them and make everybody queue to get on. There are still golf clubs in 2018 where women are not allowed in certain areas. Do me a favour. Dont forget these twits believe golf really stands for gentlemen only ladies forbidden. No wonder we have Boris Johnson as foreign secretary.

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