Free Daily Post: 02/04/18 (complete)

Irish National tips x3 + write up

TIPS

Irish Grand National 

Jetstream Jack – 1 point win – 50/1 (gen) UP

Thunder And Roses – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen)  UP

General Principle – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) WON 33/1>20/1 (available at 48.00 on Betfair Exch when posting…)

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Well good luck with wherever your pin lands in this race today! Given it’s the first Irish National to be run on ground with ‘heavy’ in the description for quite some time (at least 20 years I think) it could well be any stats/trends are useless – given they are based on decent ground Irish Nationals – and in any case this really will take some getting. As with many Nationals you are ‘educated guessing’ as to stamina with many, knowing that one or two are going to relish conditions and improve dramatically for them- well, that’s most likely, or a ‘proven’ slogger will come to the fore and I have gone with one of those, just in case. 

Anyway… I did use some stats/trends as a guide to create some sort of ‘winning profile’ for the last 10 years (oh and in context that in the last 21 renewals those that PU or Fell LTO are 0/54,7p, that may well be improved on today, we shall see)

My profile was: NOT 1-2 runs only in handicap chases (0/64,5p – Monbeg Notorious could well improve on that stat) 0-2 wins in handicap chases (3+, 0/55,11p, placed numbers decent, so that stat could go, but I have to narrow down somehow!) 1-3 chase wins, 0-2 handicap wins, ran in a Novice Chase, Novice Hurdle or Handicap Chase last time out (0/105,10p, did not)… the last 10 winners have all shared those characteristics, leaving ‘8’ : 

Dounikos / Snow Falcon / General Principle / Jetstream Jack / Kemboy / Moulin A Vent / Sutton Manor / Thunder And Roses

There were some other ‘positive pointers’, including 2-4 career wins , ran over 2m5.5f+ LTO, Did NOT run in a G3 LTO, Aged 6-8, Not PU/Fell LTO. (I didn’t use the PU/Fell LTO stat as a filter for the original 8 above)

Jetstream Jack ticks all those boxes also, and given his price, his trainer…it was that straightforward really. Given I have attacked the race with such stats, were he to win having hit all of them, at 50s, unbacked – well, perish the thought! He may not be good enough, he may not stay, etc etc. He is lightly enough raced over fences and gets 1st time blinkers here, and at least he comes here fresh. You can make pros or cons for most in here but given the above and his price, I didn’t want to over-think it really. 

General Principle... he ticks nearly all the boxes bar age (in terms of ‘ideal’ range) but 9 year olds and older have won this a few times in the last 20 years and again, given his profile, connections, price, I was happy to have a stab. He came 5th in this race last year, beaten 17l. He has an extra year of experience under his belt, and all his best form has been in a bog. It could be the ground/trip tax his stamina but it is an unknown, hence why I want a price. Ge could well improve for running back over a marathon trip on testing ground. Elliot doesn’t book this jockey very often, but he did ride him a Festival winner last year, so it isn’t a negative. Touch wood he has been a sound jumper and if he completes, and builds on his run in this last year, he may not be far away. 

Thunder And Roses.. a bit of a stab on this previous winner but Mouse should always be feared in these races and while he did fall LTO, he was running an ok race at the time. I just know that IF he runs his race (does appear to be all in the head with him) and completes (can clearly hit one!), he may not be far away – quite simply he is proven in race conditions, which most in here are not. This could be the year where is pays to side with a proven slogger – Folsom Blue would be the other one, but he is much shorter price, and Bless The Wings stays, but he is 13 and this ground+trip combined may raise a question. No forlorn hope though and he did come second in this last year, best of the rest behind a comfortable winner. 

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Of the rest… well it could just be a case of going with Monbeg Notorious, and if you can get 10s+ maybe worth a saver. He does look ultra progressive, arrives in form, and looks sure to run his race. You can’t say that about many in here. He will handle the ground, or even relish it I suspect. It will just be then whether he stays, which may make 8s looks short enough in the context of this race, or he will win like a 7/2 shot. I won’t put you off him if you like his chance and barring that 1-2 handicap chase run stat, his profile ticks the rest of my initial pointers. I can see why he heads the market. 

Clearly you can make a case for plenty of others, and I won’t go through them all. Snow Falcon would be an annoying winner but stamina is a really big question – I want to see him in a 3m handicap chase as he is well handicapped, and the yard are going great guns. I just had a niggle over his stamina for this, in heavy, but I could be wrong. And he was meant to run at Cheltenham and was pulled out, suggesting he had a problem. I could go on, but will leave it there. Meade’s other running in this is interesting as he is on the stats ‘shortlist’ also, and is a decent price. He hasn’t jumped well on his last few starts and I wonder if this could all be a bit too much for him. Meade’s stable jockey has jumped of him also, but they can be poor judges so you never know. 

It’s highly likely I haven’t even mentioned the winner in any of those above, having touched on 10 or so runners! 

GL with whatever you go with. As always before I tip in a big race I don’t read through any of your comments, or read my SP2A email, or see what other fine judges I respect like- so, I’d best go and see if anyone else is as mad as me, or whether I will have a few more pins dotted around! 

That’s the lot for today, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. AW BETS
    1.30 Wolverhampton Awesome Allan

    Profit update at Bookmakers SP anyone able to take advantage of BOG would have come close to doubling the returns
    Feb + 22.225 or to £10 + £222.50
    Mar + 14.166 or to £10 + £141.66

    Total + 36.391 points or to £10 + £364.16 Bookmakers SP only

    1. Well done Colin, very good. Good luck with Awesome Allan today, the horse seems to find all manner of ways not to win a race.

      Russell Henley won the match bet with Tony Finau in the golf, but both played well. Some good opportunities at The Masters coming up.

      1. How good was Ian Poulter?

        He was told he had qualified for The Masters after reaching QF last week and then 10 mins before he teed off in SF they told him he needed to win his QF; clearly rattled him and he lost 8 + 6.

        He had to win this week, got 2012 Medinah putter out and won in play off.

        I can’t believe anyone will ever beat Langer (winning week after Kiawah in Ryder Cup) will ever be beaten ig golf, if not sport for sheer bottle and mental toughness, but IP put himself right up there yesterday, will sure be charged up too going to Augusta.

        1. Great tipping in the Irish National Ian with 4 of your 6 selections and mentions filling the first four places – I believe Josh may have also tipped the winner!

  2. IRISH NATIONAL TRENDS

    Looked at the last 21 years for results and used the following trends you come up with 2 horses.
    IRISH bred
    Between 6 – 10y old
    Rated 115 – 137
    Top 6 finish in last 3 runs
    Distance move from LTO of up 3.5f – 1m5f
    Max distance won 2m2f – 3m1f
    LTO ran 11-60 days
    LTO finished top 6

    Qualifiers
    Oscar knight 16/1 365
    Killaro boy 40/1 sky bet 6 places

    All Fairyhouse EW lucky 15

    210 Golden jewel ew
    315 vision dete ew
    350 diamond couchois ew
    500 Killaro boy ew

    500 Oscar knight ew

  3. For what it’s worth my study of the stats resulted in Mall Dini as the likeliest winner with a small ew saver on Fine Theatre.
    Hope one of us gets a payout.

  4. Wow, what a finish. Is it still Cheltenham week Josh? I was sat in the pub last night telling a guy about your recent success, just hope he listened and got onboard.

  5. Hoo hoo, slasher Slevin brutalises a win using the General Principle that you can throw the kitchen sink if the race is important enough.
    Well done Josh
    Hugh

  6. Well done Josh, will take Forever Gold at 50/1 in third (early price) also had a saver on General Principle, like i said maestro returns!!!

  7. Well done Josh, cracking tip in General principle. Not sure it would have won though if Belshill hadn’t caused such carnage at the last fench though?!

    1. cheers. Oh no he wouldn’t have, looks like Folsom is very unlucky there… but that’s why I don’t throw things at telly when it doesn’t go my way and I’m on the Folsom blues of this world more often than the General Principles- it all evens out, and if you play 20s+ shots regularly in races like that you deserve some luck! 🙂 All horses fine I think which is main thing.

      1. It may be a case of the Folsam blues..but all us backers of the selections are in the Johnny Cash now (bad joke!). No such thing as luck, it was just the randomness of a slog of a chase over a long distance in bad conditions. Horses tire, as us humans do, and struggle and get a bit wobbly when exhausted.

  8. Brilliant Josh. What a few weeks you’ve had. Have you ever thought of doing this for a living? lol 🙂

  9. Cheers gents. A great finish. Any Folsom B backers probably unlucky there but that’s racing and that’s the way it goes – winners like that are why you can’t get too annoyed when you have last fence fallers when miles clear, or ones BD / unsighted etc etc. What a game.

  10. Very disappointed with the Irish National.
    I had a tenner on General Principle at 40.0 on BF and watched the race via stream.
    The bloody stream decided to keep looping as they were coming to the last and never got to see the finish!
    Of all the rotten luck eh!
    I back Josh’s tip and can’t even see it win pfff.

  11. I suppose I picked the right 3 bets as my only ones of the weekend! Can you thank the aliens for letting you stay home and ask them what it will take to keep you around for another couple of weeks? I guess I need to drink a copious amount of prosecco to celebrate before I go back to Blighty tomorrow!

  12. So you won’t believe this. I was in a bad reception area when I put my bets on earlier. I had £5 ew general princie at 33/1. just looked and had £432 in my betting account. looking at my history on that horse only it seems I have backed it twice as I thought it hadn’t gone through due to reception. brilliant work Josh. looks like steak and a £10 bottle of wine tonight

  13. WEll done Josh and well done Ian at sp2a…….win and 3 placed too/////
    an all round cracker on a potentially disastrous day.
    I have a large one in my hand as I type [Whisky that is Fanshawe….stop spluttering in the mess] a nice Dimple Haig, fortified with more Dimple Haig….Top stuff boys.

    Tony Mc.

  14. That thesaurus I bought with my previous winnings says multitudinous gratitude!

    Impeccable distillation of the race.

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