Free Daily Post: 29/03/18 (complete)

TIPS

None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

4.45 Weth- Blakemount  (12/1<) 

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‘BONUS’ 

It’s been quiet enough in the last few days so below I have repeated today’s ‘notes’ horses (aka ‘tips’) from my Members’ post. These are where I use my stats qualifiers as starting points and decide whether I wish to have my tipping stake on them. I’ve had mixed success this jumps season (it’s been a bit stop start) and part of me is waiting for the flat to return, but the 6 month results since I started with this approach are decent. As with Festival week, I am due another spike at some point Fingers crossed. 

So, the starting point for those below is that they hit some of my trainer stats…

Section 2 from my daily members’ post…

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

ALL Rubbish!

3.40 Weth

Doctor Haze – 12/1

Cash To Ash – 12/1 

5.15 Weth

Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – 16/1 

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Doctor Haze – maybe the Lacey qualifier below (from the Test Zone, 5/2 fav) wins this but his odds seemed short enough and this seemed an open race, given it’s packed full of lightly raced horses/a few in form etc. So, I wanted a couple at prices and two of the qualifiers above looked worth a dabble to my eyes. This one makes handicap hurdle debut for Kim Bailey and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. The sort where you want a price and with him I wanted 10s+. He drops back down in tip here and returns to better ground. There is ‘good’ in this going description and it could be the best ground a few in here have encountered for quite some time. This is also his first run in a decent sized field which may help, especially if they go an ok pace (that isn’t guaranteed). The days rest from his last run either suggests there was a problem/that wasn’t his running, or he hated the ground and they have waited for better. And/or of course he is simply a young horse that they like and wish to give him time – slowly slowly. So, we ‘could’ see a different horse today. ‘Could’! The underlying stats are decent also. Bailey is 9/39,18p with handicap debutants in the last 2 years – 1/6,3p at the track. Bailey is 13/33,23p with all runners at the course in the last 5 years, 6/14,11p when D Bass is up top. So, at 12s I’ll take a poke. A similar approach with such runners here of his in the years ahead should see us do just fine.

Cash To Ash – well another handicap hurdle debutant, another ‘could be anything type’ and another at a price where I can take a chance. This one has been running ok and steps up in distance here. The trainer does ok when moving horses in trip and with any luck that is the reason for improvement. He is a bit like Looks Like Power who I tipped to win a 3m hncp chase earlier in the week- there is a chance that as the race hotted up LTO he was racing out of his comfort zone, using energy earlier than ideal just to keep up with the others- hence fading out of it. And of course he’s entitled to be learning his trade and improving with each run. We ‘could’ see a different horse today, and at 12s I’m happy to roll the dice on him.

Knowing my luck Boundary (another qualifier from Sec 1 of members post) will now romp home! I’d have thought the market would guide and he looked moderate for Gordon Elliot but it is a change of trainer so you never know. It will be interesting tracking ex Elliot inmates in the years ahead as you’d automatically assume that if he can’t get the best out of them they won’t be much good. But his operation is vast and some of these horses may appreciate a return to smaller yards/more individual attention. Anyway, I’d want to see a bit more evidence, even at his price. Free Range has a more obvious chance I think but I didn’t judge 9/2 to be a price I wanted to attack, in the context of this race.

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Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – well this is a bit of a poke but I couldn’t resist at 16/1. Maybe the market will guide but there are reasons to hope for an improved performance in what again looks an open enough/moderate race to my eyes. Despite being aged 10 this is only his 10th race under rules. He is the only horse in the race with proven winning form at the distance, back when trained in Ireland. Most of his better form was on a decent surface and there is a chance he could appreciate this return to better ground- as he could returning to hurdles – he hasn’t jumped well for Dobbin – in part that may be ground related and LTO was a trip to short, taken out of his comfort zone. His mark is dropping, he moves back up in trip, back to slightly better ground and back over hurdles. Oh, and he gets a first time Visor. Dobbin doesn’t use a visor that often but is 4/15,9p with all runners wearing one, 0/3,3p with those wearing it for the first time. The jockey hasn’t set the world alight as yet but he has ridden plenty of rags (25/1,40/1+) so I won’t pass judgement just yet – and again, 16s allows plenty of chances to be taken. I won’t be too perturbed if there is no market support/he drifts as I suspect the yard don’t quite know what to expect! He will be race fit, just a question of how he adapts to all these changes, whether it sparks improvement, and if he then has a chunk in hand- which isn’t impossible.

Rising Marienbard looks interesting at 10s – I think I tipped him LTO when last seen at Muss, making handicap hurdle debut. That was a run of some promise but he still looked as though he was learning his trade and I’m not sure he liked the track. He may improve on this more galloping track. I thought Once An Angel looked interesting at 10s+ also. One of the two shorter prices may win from the qualifiers in Sec 1 but I could leave them at the prices. Skelton’s steps up in trip by 1m, which may unlock all sorts of improvement but I’d want bigger than 3/1 to find out. Bookies seemingly taking fewer chances with plenty from that up and coming juggernaught.

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That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets.

Josh

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

22 Comments

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  • Got to get these up early as back at hospital at silly o’clock in the morning for the 4th time this week for ‘tests’. Please note: I spent a couple of hours with loads of electrodes stuck to my head today so do with the following as you wish.

    T 3.20 – Catchin Time @ 10/9’s
    Well below it’s last winning mark and let’s be honest it’s not got a lot to beat.

    W 4.15 – Brascoe e/w @ 25’s
    Backing this for no other reason than it can run 3m and jump at the same time. I could add that it’s having it’s hurdle deb for Jonjo but why complicate matters.
    GL
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Mike,

      Not sure if I’ve missed anything but why are you having these tests I you don’t mind me asking?
      Jarrod

      jarrodholmes68 7 months ago Reply


    • Good luck with your test results Titus

      Andrew 7 months ago Reply


      • Thanks Guys,
        I appreciate it.
        I haven’t made it common knowledge as they don’t think there’s a serious issue and I was just feeling a bit sorry for myself by today with some more tests to come.
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Titus

      Brascoe looks very interesting and Cash To Ash ( Josh ) has been well supported.
      Those two will do for me today. Red Verdon tomorrow will recoup any losses ( I hope )

      Good Luck To Everyone

      Kevin Gibbard 7 months ago Reply


  • AW BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.20 Sharp Operator
    3.30 Noble Gift
    3.30 Nonios
    5.35 Kyllukey
    5.35 Secret Asset
    6.05 Mighty Zip
    Wolverhampton
    6.15 Ramblow
    7.45 King Kevin
    7.45 Tan Arabiq
    8.15 Jorvick Prince
    8.15 Something Lucky
    8.15 Invincible Ridge

    colin leafe 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Colin, great work with your tips by the way! I was wondering if you note how you get on in small fields of 4 or 5 runners where you have 2 or more selections and they’re both short prices? Personally I just leave all 4 runners and most 5 runners alone but that’s just me.

      Chris Albin 7 months ago Reply


      • Hi Chris
        Put up the bets that i back if there are two bets in a 4 or 5 field look to see if i can make a profit if one wins at 6/4 with £10 on then you make £5 on the race or 25% now where do you get interest like that with the banks.
        Anyone can do what they wish with the bets but every bet put up then i have backed.
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 7 months ago Reply


    • Colin, I am a backer of Tournament match ups in Golf – the one I most like is the match between Russell Henley and Tony Finau this week. I have gone off Tony Finau and so like the 2.3 offered on Henley to finish higher than Finau. It is also a good source of bets in The Masters next week as some players always play well here as opposed to most weeks, Fred Couples, Lee Westwood and Angel Cabrera to name but three.

      martin colwell 7 months ago Reply


      • Martin good luck on your match bet hope you win,like i said the other day Finau never finished in the top 30 here so the stats are in your favor but at those prices match betting is not for me.
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 7 months ago Reply


    • Another 3 winners from 9 picks for me. Keep it up mate. Do I recall you saying you have a similar system for the jumps?

      Nick Mazur 7 months ago Reply


      • Nick
        You are not being greedy are you?
        Intend to put Flat and NH bets on the Members post from 1st of May for April is always a dodgy month on the Flat for AW does not transfer to the Flat very well.
        Enjoy your holiday

        colin leafe 7 months ago Reply


        • You’re in the wrong business if you’re not greedy. The more money the better and the easier the better so given I am not far off 40 pts up since the 9th of March or so to BFSP after commission I am hungry for more. All about optimising the portfolio here. What isn’t working well enough gets ditched and what is gets added with stakes increased over time based on profit earned.

          Nick Mazur 7 months ago Reply


    • Great work Colin im a keen follower of your selections really impressed with your consistency hope that you keep posting on the AW throughout the year

      christopher jones 7 months ago Reply


    • tremendous picks again Colin, how is the Profit and Loss looking coming up to month end?

      Paul

      PAUL EBREY 7 months ago Reply


  • What a day yesterday Colin, thanks. Interested to read all your talk about Brum, I am West Midlands born, near Droitwich and went to City of Bham Poly. Been in London since the 70s though. Lived in Handsworth for 3 years when it was a great place to live. Do you still go racing? I occasionally go to Wolverhampton in the evening if it’s on the way back from a flat meeting further North.
    Hugh

    alpha2 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Hugh
      Very rare do i go racing now had enough of chasing up and down the motorway in my lifetime averaged around 30000 miles a year.
      Not interested in the large meetings Ascot,Cheltenham,Aintree Newmarket etc for they have become to crowded and so becomes difficult to get around and see the horses so give me a smaller course any day.
      Do not know if anyone did what i suggested go to the final fence on the last circuit and watch the speed they jump it the noise is amazing and shows how skilled and brave the jockeys are.

      colin leafe 7 months ago Reply


      • Wetherby used to be my local track and was always good to walk around the inside rail, listening to the jockeys at the start asking each other who was going to lead from the off. The last fence was excellent for the excitement and noise but during a couple of meetings the couple of last jumps proved fatal to a few runners, so sad to see the screens up, so we sort of watched from further away.

        Not every course will let you walk around, Haydock officials were very impolite when access to cross the course from the main stand was requested…..not allowed, what do you want to go over there for, anyway…..Doncaster made up for petty officialdom, they had no problems with folk walking around but Haydock still niggles after all these years

        Ascot and Newmarket seemed so far away from the actual track, no atmosphere and very little shouting home the winner so never bothered to ask

        Norman 7 months ago Reply


        • Isle of Ewe….last jump at Wetherby….coming to win easily and falls…..that’s why the last few jumps at this course, and others, can be upsetting to the viewers on TV and those on course….RIP

          norman 7 months ago Reply


          • horrible scenes, hindsight is wonderful- given what happened Dicky may just let her jump the last unaided if he had his time again- he booted her into the second last and she pinged it, tried the same again at last and she put down/they were out of step with each other. Still young and raw and probably trying to educate as well. Horrible. Looked a smart enough prospect on that evidence.

            Josh 7 months ago Reply


  • In the 3.40 Wetherby, including Josh’s contribution ….I now have 8 different “Horse Racing Analysts” (aka Tipsters, sorry Josh !) selections from 13 declared runners……it’s not the Bl***y Grand National for thingy’s sake……and I have already backed 5 of them

    any ideas or should I just back the other 5 @ £0.05p EW with Sky…just to show an interest

    Norman 7 months ago Reply


    • It does have an open feel haha. I can live with either of the top 2 winning in the market at the prices… and now money appears to be coming for Boundary also! Every chance I’ve picked 2 of the 3 biggies from my initial list of qualifier and the sodding biggest one of the lot, not tipped, is going to win! If you follow tipsters etc you just have to treat them all separately and try and blank out what you may have on the race/outlay. If you follow them you follow them, as you know the one you end up taking a view on, esp if at good odds, will be the one that wins! It may be that you lose on the race whatever but have to try and view the sources as separate.
      Josh

      Josh 7 months ago Reply


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