Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
4.45 Weth- Blakemount (12/1<)
It’s been quiet enough in the last few days so below I have repeated today’s ‘notes’ horses (aka ‘tips’) from my Members’ post. These are where I use my stats qualifiers as starting points and decide whether I wish to have my tipping stake on them. I’ve had mixed success this jumps season (it’s been a bit stop start) and part of me is waiting for the flat to return, but the 6 month results since I started with this approach are decent. As with Festival week, I am due another spike at some point Fingers crossed.
So, the starting point for those below is that they hit some of my trainer stats…
Section 2 from my daily members’ post…
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5) (1 point win bets)
Doctor Haze – 12/1
Cash To Ash – 12/1
Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – 16/1
Doctor Haze – maybe the Lacey qualifier below (from the Test Zone, 5/2 fav) wins this but his odds seemed short enough and this seemed an open race, given it’s packed full of lightly raced horses/a few in form etc. So, I wanted a couple at prices and two of the qualifiers above looked worth a dabble to my eyes. This one makes handicap hurdle debut for Kim Bailey and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. The sort where you want a price and with him I wanted 10s+. He drops back down in tip here and returns to better ground. There is ‘good’ in this going description and it could be the best ground a few in here have encountered for quite some time. This is also his first run in a decent sized field which may help, especially if they go an ok pace (that isn’t guaranteed). The days rest from his last run either suggests there was a problem/that wasn’t his running, or he hated the ground and they have waited for better. And/or of course he is simply a young horse that they like and wish to give him time – slowly slowly. So, we ‘could’ see a different horse today. ‘Could’! The underlying stats are decent also. Bailey is 9/39,18p with handicap debutants in the last 2 years – 1/6,3p at the track. Bailey is 13/33,23p with all runners at the course in the last 5 years, 6/14,11p when D Bass is up top. So, at 12s I’ll take a poke. A similar approach with such runners here of his in the years ahead should see us do just fine.
Cash To Ash – well another handicap hurdle debutant, another ‘could be anything type’ and another at a price where I can take a chance. This one has been running ok and steps up in distance here. The trainer does ok when moving horses in trip and with any luck that is the reason for improvement. He is a bit like Looks Like Power who I tipped to win a 3m hncp chase earlier in the week- there is a chance that as the race hotted up LTO he was racing out of his comfort zone, using energy earlier than ideal just to keep up with the others- hence fading out of it. And of course he’s entitled to be learning his trade and improving with each run. We ‘could’ see a different horse today, and at 12s I’m happy to roll the dice on him.
Knowing my luck Boundary (another qualifier from Sec 1 of members post) will now romp home! I’d have thought the market would guide and he looked moderate for Gordon Elliot but it is a change of trainer so you never know. It will be interesting tracking ex Elliot inmates in the years ahead as you’d automatically assume that if he can’t get the best out of them they won’t be much good. But his operation is vast and some of these horses may appreciate a return to smaller yards/more individual attention. Anyway, I’d want to see a bit more evidence, even at his price. Free Range has a more obvious chance I think but I didn’t judge 9/2 to be a price I wanted to attack, in the context of this race.
Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – well this is a bit of a poke but I couldn’t resist at 16/1. Maybe the market will guide but there are reasons to hope for an improved performance in what again looks an open enough/moderate race to my eyes. Despite being aged 10 this is only his 10th race under rules. He is the only horse in the race with proven winning form at the distance, back when trained in Ireland. Most of his better form was on a decent surface and there is a chance he could appreciate this return to better ground- as he could returning to hurdles – he hasn’t jumped well for Dobbin – in part that may be ground related and LTO was a trip to short, taken out of his comfort zone. His mark is dropping, he moves back up in trip, back to slightly better ground and back over hurdles. Oh, and he gets a first time Visor. Dobbin doesn’t use a visor that often but is 4/15,9p with all runners wearing one, 0/3,3p with those wearing it for the first time. The jockey hasn’t set the world alight as yet but he has ridden plenty of rags (25/1,40/1+) so I won’t pass judgement just yet – and again, 16s allows plenty of chances to be taken. I won’t be too perturbed if there is no market support/he drifts as I suspect the yard don’t quite know what to expect! He will be race fit, just a question of how he adapts to all these changes, whether it sparks improvement, and if he then has a chunk in hand- which isn’t impossible.
Rising Marienbard looks interesting at 10s – I think I tipped him LTO when last seen at Muss, making handicap hurdle debut. That was a run of some promise but he still looked as though he was learning his trade and I’m not sure he liked the track. He may improve on this more galloping track. I thought Once An Angel looked interesting at 10s+ also. One of the two shorter prices may win from the qualifiers in Sec 1 but I could leave them at the prices. Skelton’s steps up in trip by 1m, which may unlock all sorts of improvement but I’d want bigger than 3/1 to find out. Bookies seemingly taking fewer chances with plenty from that up and coming juggernaught.
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets.