1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
Jumps
Ascot
4.55 – Lough Derg Farmer (m1) G3 7/1 UP
Carlisle
4.00 –
Robbing The Prey (all hncp) w1 H1 I3 2/1 UP
Indian Voyage (all hncps + hncp c) ES G1 14/1 S1 S2 S3 UP
4.35 –
Always Resolute (hncp h) 9/2 UP
Viserion (m2) 14/1 S2 2nd (unlucky)
5.10 – Golden Investment (nov hnc) I3 G3 15/2 UP
Flat
Doncaster
2.25 – Twin Appeal (4yo+) 30
3.35 –
Naggers (micro distance) H3 7/1 UP
Captain Colby (micro distance) G3 16/1 UP
Manshood (micro distance) 14/1 UP
Giant Spark (micro distance) 16/1 UP
6.30 – Pretty Jewel (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 S5 WON 9/2
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KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)
‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 18th March 2018)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>
VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>
IMPORTANT: Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5) (1 point win bets)
None.
(I haven’t looked through, 4 hours sleep and my head isn’t in a good place to do any runners justice!)
The FLAT- do refer to the ‘advised Flat Strategies’. I have dropped ES for this season I think, but we shall see how the rest get on.
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One of my Festival tips, Turning Gold, reappears today in the 2.35 Ascot. He is only 9/2 and I have’t looked at the race – those odds may be short enough given his jumping, which could continue to hold him back in more competitive races, we shall see.
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3.Micro System Test Zone
Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)
4.20 Ascot – Theatre Guide (m1/3/4) UP
D McCain (14/1< guide)
4.00- Derintoher Yank (m1/2) UP
4.35 – Viserion (m2) 2nd
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Trainer pointers (starting points) for Lincoln Meeting
Stats for previous 5 years:-
All runners:-
- Saeed Bin Suroor: 3/4,3p, +6 BFSP
- R Varian: 3/8,5p, +1 (3/1< SP, 3/4,3p)
- M Johnston: 4/9,6p, +6
- R Hannon: 5/23,10p, +12 (12/1< SP, 5/15,10p, +20)
David O’Meara (5/39,18p, +19 all runners)
A focus on Maiden races and Handicaps
- Age 3 or 4: 4/10,6p, +40 BFSP
- Class 5: 4/6,6p, +19
- 3/4 runs prev 90 days: 2/4,2p, +8
- 3 YO Only races: 2/4,4p, +8
- 0 runs at Donny previously: 5/13,8p, +45
Richard Fahey (11/82,27p +47 all runners)
16/1 or bigger SP, 0/20,1p
14/1 or shorter SP-
Handicaps: 10/46,23p, +75 … just focussing on handicaps, 14/1< SP…
- Age 4: 6/20,8p, +47
- Class 4+5: 6/21,12p, +48
- Running at Same distance as LTO: 5/17,8p, +58
- Drop 1 or 2 classes from LTO: 6/14,9p, +32
- 0-1 run at track previously: 8/27,14p, +70
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19 Responses
One of mine already declared a non runner, so it is with the flat, can remove them at a moments notice, genuine reasons i can believe, but, some of them are down right strange…Don`t get me started ,i`ll be here all day!!?
15:35 Doncaster
QUICK LOOK 16/1 gen
Ended last year on the up, winning at Catterick and Nottingham. Looked rusty after 4 months off when well held at Southwell last time and should at least strip fitter. Don`t judge on the Sothwell run, he should come back to form on Turf today.
NAGGERS 11/2 gen
Distance winner Naggers was unlucky not to win when fourth in this race last year and looks worth a shout here at 7/1 with ground conditions in his favor in a wide-open handicap.
16:45 Doncaster
ARCHIPPOS 12/1 gen
stable going along nicely at the moment and this one won the race last year is four pound worse of but think conditions will suit better.Won this last year from similar conditions and draw, should go well!
I am on Paddy Power 1pt e/w in the 15:35 at Doncaster (all bar one of these has been won by a 4 or 5 year old and this one is drawn well, on a decent mark, conditions will suit and fits Josh’s stats well as a Fahey class dropper) and Arhippos 1pt e/w in the 16:45 at Doncaster (Stewart has said most of the reasons above. Would add that P J McDonald was an eye catching booking and he has had a 1st and a 2nd from his last two rides for the stable)
Well done Nick, great minds think alike…haha!
Thanks Stewart, same to you. Little bit annoyed at not putting up Saigon City given I knew he was second in this last year having been on in May when he got punted from 8/1 to 2/1 and hosed up, so should have looked at the race in more detail and spotted that the front 2 didn’t have any soft ground form and possibly could have found the winner of the opening race but I guess I cannot complain.
The rule 4 with the non runners took a little bit of the gloss off the win, do i think he would have still won, hell yeah!! Suppose i could have cashed out and gone in again, but, was probably about the same once all is said and done.
I got on Archippos at 9/1 and it was backed down to 9/2 and won it well. So well done guys.
Very good pick, Nick. Thank you!
In the Veterans Race 4.20(Ras De Maree,Paddy The Oscar and Ratify scoffing in the background) I took the 8/1 last night on Theatre Guide.If this fellow was anywhere close to his best would win this by a country mile,unfortunately hasn’t shown anything after first run of season,but this is a lot easier than anything he has tackled recently.From runnings of this type 10yo’s are well on top,so its a hopefull rather than confident punt
Hi josh,just wanted to say a massive thank you for last couple weeks,signed up before Cheltenham as done previously,appreciate the hard work, started with £100 bank and finished with just over £1k as also got on some of the stats and members tips also, but with a wedding and a baby due this year your hard work has helped get a bit of extra ££ behind me (i actually missed the 50/1 kilbrechen something or other) i dont know how as i read the posts every morning ,must have been my pre coffee read. But anyway a masive thank you for your hard work
Thanks Shaun, glad you enjoyed it. Yep the AB winner was the latest posting of the week,forget when but between 9-10 and before ‘complete sign’ when up but a few seemed to have missed it so clearly I could have done better on that front. Anyway. That’s still a decent return on investment! Hopefully you’ll be back next year! 🙂
Cheers Nick nice winner just like shelling peas this game,if only
Well done Nick and Stewart,nice winner there. Stewart…you’ve been on some run?? 3rd or 4th 10/1+ winner in last week..
I`ll take that Josh, thank you, since i have started just betting at the top tier of graded courses it seems to have honed my betting thinking, like you were saying sometimes a tweak here and there does the trick.
Obviously I know, as we all do that a losing run will kick in at some point, but, I am more ready for the situation thanks to yours and other peoples guidance and advice on here.
I also took a mini break over the Cheltenham Festival period and followed yourself and SP2a`s tips over that time as my internet connection was playing up.
Good job, as I know i would have done terrible that week and i think the day I posted, mine finished “out the back of the tv”, to coin the phrase.
Yep. I don’t think you can underestimate a mental pause every now and then,on the analysis front. I’ve no doubt the lack of racing leading up to Chelts due to weather made a big difference to my mental state/results. On we go.
I definitely agree there. There is a distinct correlation between how busy I am at work vs how well I do in my “second job”. Case in point another Sunday winner today.
Agree with the work correlation Nick, rarely have time before 10am to do anything race related and then it’s squinting at phone! I really miss out a lot on this blog at times during the day too most days. Always happy when Josh and others post the night before! There seems a lot more tipping going on here in the last couple of weeks, I guess Josh has raised the bar with his Cheltenham exploits throwing down the gauntlet to others!
I was wondering Josh if you had any plans to create a separate page just for tipping in the members club, leaving one page for general racing posts? Not sure how well that would work, just a thought.
Just the one for me tomorrow. Josh do you mind re-posting when you have the new members post up mate.
Herdswick Holloa Huntingdon Monday 16:10 1pt e/w
Hi Josh
Which of the flat strategies do you advise following as a starting point? Thinking 1 and 4 as per jumps but 6 has a strong ROI too I notice.
Thanks to all the contributors as well as yourself Josh, finally starting to make punting pay, long may it continue!
Cheers
Hi Kev, yep I’d say 1, 4 and 6 would be a decent systematic portfolio, fingers crossed they can repeat their SR / ROIs this season. As always start small and with any luck build up as the season progresses. S6 was exciting, will have a lower SR but the profits/ROI were decent and with any luck that will continue over time.
Thanks- yep betting/racing is a long journey, always learning, but if you’re patient and willing to take a long term approach, it works out well enough eventually!
Josh