Nothing too much from me today…I may have been catching up with friends back in Suffolk last night and am a tad groggy as I type! And I’ve also got a wedding to dash to at 12. So, instead of anything from me I’ll pass over to my tipping/race adviser friends at SP2A, for a preview of The Lincoln Handicap …
This preview was sent to subscribers last night. At some point over the summer I suspect there will be another special 3 month trial period just for RTP readers. The first two have gone down very well. The second such trial comes to an end in the next few weeks. I think in general everyone has been happy with progress, certainly since the first trial period in October. If you can’t wait until the summer to give them a go, you can head HERE>>> and take a look around.
DONNCHA @ 14/1
LEADER WRITER @ 14/1
BRAVERY @ 16/1
(Check Bookies but at moment BV / PP / BF go odds to 5th – others sure to follow – stake 1/2 point each way each)
Mention/Shrapnel Horse is 4 Gabriel @ 28/1
The Lincoln is always a strong Betting Market; a few horses have been “smashed” this week; the Going we can’t be 100% sure of, we know it will be “soft”; we can see that NO appreciable rain is due before the race; we know Doncaster drains very well and we also know that in Soft Going or when Soft is in the Going Description – high numbers have slight edge, low are fine and middle seems to be an issue. I think pace is always a factor but on this Going at this time of year I think a bit of cover will help, be surprised if anything “made all” be equally surprising is anything came from “last to first” what you would normally expect is for something to break cover at 2 furlong pole and race from there.
I want to break this down in to “The 3 Favourites”; a couple who are really strong at nice e/w odds and a couple of long shots.
I’m looking for form over 1 mile +; form on soft; ability to run to mark first time out; Course form preferable, Spring form preferable.
LORD GLITTERS; ABBEYBB and especially FIRE BRIGADE have been heavily backed, I get reasons for all three and in the 5/1 to 7/1 range ALL have some value, of them; LORD GLITTERS won first time up last season, won over 10 Furlongs in France on this Going; has run on a Straight Course and on a nice mark; at 5 years of age, he ticks maturity box and my only niggle is drawn in 9 and which way he will go, as history suggests “running straight” may be an issue. ABBEYBB is named like a bloody Taxi Company in the old A-Z ; Haggas always has a pop at this; has won on Good to Soft; OK on Soft and proven stamina; again draw in 10 is not ideal for me but that is the only niggle I have and strong chance of course. FIRE BRIGADE is now favourite; draw in 19 should give him tactical advantage over the other pair, although there seems to be more pace drawn lower; and he is ridden by the most miserable Charlie you can find, but we can’t hold that against the horse or the Trainer. Ticks every box for me apart from Course form and absolute evidence can win off this mark…
Now my MAIN 2 PICKS – DONNCHA ticks all boxes for me; proven in the race; proven over Course and Distance, proven first time up; proven in April first time up (early season FTU has to be deemed better than something making seasonal debut in June/July I feel) and back below a mark of 100 is crucial I think to its chances, is drawn in 15, nice place to be and at 14/1 is cracking value.
If DONNCHA has a good shout then LEADER WRITER drawn in stall 21 looks similarly well handicapped and a nice price too at 14/1. Best form in France was on soft/heavy, won tellingly well at Ascot on soft in the Autumn off 92; had an AW pipe-opener so should be fit and off a mark of 97, has also evidence can “kick” and finish very well in this type of Going.
My pair of lively outsiders would be BRAVERY who won this last year off a mark of 100; drawn 20; on Good to Soft; runs here off 95; Going tick; Mark tick; Course tick; FTU tick and if you recall last year drawn of first 4 was 20 – 2 – 21 -4 ; a draw here in Stall 1 may actually be ideal for the horse if usual trends apply, if they do we’ll say (good spot) if they don’t, (we’ll take it on the chin) 16/1 feels some real value. At 25/1 good old GABRIEL is always worth a bit of shrapnel, could be and hopefully will be in contention for a place is fit from the AW; knows all about Couse; Distance; Going; big field races and Richard Fahey won’t have many 28/1 pokes all season.
My head and logic says LORD GLITTERS / ABBEYBB and FIRE BRIGADE yet my heart and my logic says DONNCHA / LEADER WRITER and BRAVERY and I will go here with what we know and proven form at this type of year first time up in these conditions and go with the heart and the logic – and we will play the 3 favourites in a small TRICAST PERM with LEADER WRITER.
Good Luck All,