1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
Fontwell
2.15 –
Rothman (micro dist) H3 I3 2/1 UP
Mr Muddle (micro runs) ES I3 8/1 S3 S5 UP
3.25 – Antony (micro runs) ES I3 11/2 S3 UP
4.00 – Matrows Lady (all Hcs) ES+ H3 G3 I3 7/4 S3A S4 UP
4.35 –
Duke of Kilcorral (all Hc’s, HcH, micro age) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A S5 2nd (agonising)
Le Capricieux (micro runs) ES 11/2 S3 UP
5.10 – Fizzlestix (micro age) G3 I3 Evens WON Evens
Kempton
2.40 – Django Django (micro+class) w2 G1 10/1 S1 S2 UP
3.15 –
Bun Doran (micro’s class & age) I3 6/1 3rd
Kilcrea Vale (micro TJC) H3 I3 11/2 UP
Brandon Hill (micro class/runs) H3 9/2 UP
5.00 –
Mister Fisher (NHF) 11/8 WON 5/4
Uttoxeter
3.00 – Applesandpierres (micro TJC) ES+ H3 13/2 S3A 3rd 8/1
3.35 – Get on the Yager (micro TJC) ES+ I1 6/1 S3A S5 UP
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KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start. w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)
‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>
VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>
IMPORTANT: Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/41,14p, +4) (1 point win bets)
NOTES (‘tips’ i suppose but i don’t like calling them that!)
4.35 Font – Kilcorral – 9/1 (gen) 2nd 11/1 (ahhh, agonising! The great game, love a second. Can’t be greedy)
2.40 Kemp – Django Django – 10/1 (gen) (UP 8/1, rubbish)
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VIDEO: 20 min preview looking at Notes horses above and the Midlands National below (I couldn’t be bothered writing much more!)
3.Micro System Test Zone
(all research in the ‘Research Articles’ link in The KEY above, results in the ‘advised jumps strategies’ link above that)
Jumps Angles
A Honeyball
1.50 Uttox – Mozo (m1, 10/1<, m2 5/1<) UP
R Hobson (33/1< guide)
1.30 Kemp – Going Gold 3rd
Paddy Brennan (14/1<)
2.40 Kemp – Stick To The Plan (m1) UP
3.15 Kemp – Bun Doran (m1/m3) UP
Tom Lacey
4.10 Uttox – Coningsby UP
4.Any general messages/updates etc
TIPS
MIDLANDS NATIONAL (3.35 Uttox)
(bonus for Festival week subscribers…well, only a bonus if they win I suppose… 3m+ hncp chases would usually be in free posts, which return on Monday)
Western Climate – 1.5 points win – 14/1 (gen) UP (poor)
Billy Bronco – 1 point win – 25/1 (Bet365/BV) 22/1 (gen) UP (travelled well for a long way… could be a Welsh Nat type in time)
Regal Flow – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) WON 25/1 > 16/1
13 races / 6 winners / +92 points
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Shortlist
I won’t repeat all those on my shortlist (that isn’t what I meant to say… I won’t repeat all the stats on my notepad!!) but the ‘winning profile’ I homed in on… Age 6-9 (Aged 10+ are 0/100,17p in 20 years, 0/55,13p in 10 years.. that stat is hard to ignore, even in a heavy ground slog where older could be better… this race only run 4 times on heavy..so some caution) 11-5 or less on back (exc claims) / Not top 3 in weights – 0/32,4p / 10/10 had run above C2 / 10/10 o-1 runs in class (Listed, 2+, 0/42,10p.. place stats ok) (ignoring that stat the shortlist to follow is still the same)…
Those 4-5 stats (can ignore class run stats) leave three: Western Climate / Ballymalin / The Man From Minella
Other stats of interest:- (10 years) (BTW all numbers for comparison.. 10/162 runners, 37 places)
-Horse had run over further than 4m: 0/61,14 (suggests race generally goes to a horse improving for running at around this distance for first time)
-Track LTO (Last Time Out) : Chepstow (3/8,4p), Newcastle (0/17,2p…are a few in this going to be shattered from the Eider??), Haydock (0/28,6p)
-5/10 won by claiming jockeys (5/39,12p) (Go on James!)
-Trainers: Pipe (4/11,5p)
Western Climate ‘could be anything’ over this distance… he could hit a fence or 10, he could not stay- hence why I am anti EW I think, so go hard or go home, as is generally my want 🙂 , He has a good profile for this, is lightly raced for his age, heavy clearly no problem, has been freshened up, gets the excellent James Bowen on. At 14/1, given his place on the shortlist and his profile, he had to be a bet didn’t he?? Yes he did.
Billy Bronco/Regal Flow… explained in video which is on its way.
I can’t back the other two on the shortlist personally, not for me. But I know some of you do just like to take covering fire on all shortlist horses (when the shortlist is a manageable size)
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Festival Week 2018, official tips: 12 races / 5 winners / +69.5 points
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Some ‘parish notices’…
THANKS! for all of the comments… I do read every comment posted on here (and if you ever ask me a question you get a reply) but replying to you all individually wasn’t practical! Reading such joy is what it is all about for me really. The comments and atmosphere are a big part of what goes on here and is what sustains my drive and effort. We have always celebrated everyone’s success and will continue to do so. (polite constructive criticism is always welcome also) But reading about your success this last week does make it all worthwhile. It made the 4x 15h days of ‘thinking horse’ and the 15 hours or so of pre-meeting research well worth it! Roll on next year… well, i’ll try my best to up my game during the rest of the year!
Festival Subscribers…
As previously discussed you have full access through to 25th March. Please don’t think that every week is like Festival Week! 🙂 If only we could make 70 points every 4 days. There will be the option for you to stay for another 7 weeks after that for just £7 and to get stuck in to my unique approach here. It may or may not be for you. In a way Festival week was an intense version of what goes on I suppose. But, whatever you do, with any luck you will be back for Festival Week 2019.
Some pointers to the content…
- Please please read through the KEY… that is your friend. There is a 7 week trial period of the members club for a reason.. it can take plenty of time to settle in and work out how best you wish to engage with the content. Please flick through the ‘IMPORTANT’ link in the Key, if you wish to understand what the hell is going on! There is the odd video which brings it to life also.
- The foundation to regular content in Sections 1 and 3 are qualifiers against my various trainer/jockey stats research. Those qualifiers are the foundation to everything else. DO NOT go backing them all! In the KEY there are links to advised strategies/results etc so that you can work out how best to attack the content. Strategy 1 and Strategy 4 (S1 +S4) would be my starting point… and any ES+ Double/Treble Rated (ie ES+ H3, I1, or ES+ I3 G3… as an example) are looking interesting and definitely a decent starting point. The results for those are in the Key links also. On Monday I will update the advised strategies results. At times it has been a testing jumps season to date, but plenty of promise and the odd strategy is doing just fine.
- TIPS! – i don’t really think of myself as a ‘tipster’ – well, this service isn’t a tipping service, but clearly I do ‘tip’… mainly through the ‘Notes’ horses in Section 2 above. These horses derive from the stats qualifiers on this page, that I then look through and make my own subjective judgement on as to their chance against their odds. They are showing a 50% ROI or so since the start of September when I modified my approach… although 2018 so far hasn’t really gone anywhere… but then my tipping profits have always come in spikes! I do need to improve on that figure though, but I will. At some point. And there is always the Flat season to come, which I am looking forward to for the first time ever I think… possibly because the Notes flat horses won +130 odd points between Sept and Oct. Mad. I am currently in the ‘betting gods correction phase’ – and after the week we have just had, they may give me a few more slaps around the chops in the weeks ahead. The game isn’t this easy.
- I try and create content and ‘space’ where you can think for yourself also – that is very important. There are tips and systems you can follow, but plenty of content you can use as ‘starting points’ etc. It is part magazine subscription I suppose as well… always plenty to flick through and read, videos to watch, comments to read and engage with etc.
- The most important thing is to start small, whatever approach you take.. paper trade or £2 bets… plenty of time to build up betting banks, there is no rush. Consistency is key. Most members here, me included, are £2-£20 punters… long term profit, entertainment and enjoyment are the main aims, however much you are betting.
Right, I will leave that there!
Let’s crack on with the weekend,
Josh
p.s next week I will record a Festival review video…always plenty to learn and it could have been even better! 🙂
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75 Responses
Hi Josh
Enjoy your night out, you deserve it after your labours this week, epic analysis and tipping, very impressed. Couldn’t believe the AB result, many congratulations from a new festival subscriber.
Josh would like to say a big thank you for your hard work and excellent tipping this week enjoy your night out you deserve it after burning the midnight oil this week thanks again also just to say this is the best horseracing site l have come across one satisfied customer thanks for making my betting profitable and enjoyable and fun thanks again. Stephen
Great forecast in the 4.50 sat in Barbados watching tv having kittens with blow by blow out in front shouting so much didn’t notice discorama brilliant thanks I’ll spend some on banks beer
BK
You spent half the week apologising for those you missed but have no idea how you landed on those you hit!!
Awesome tipping and with Colins golf tips , Ian at Spa this week may be the best ever.
All the praise you get is well deserved for this
week.and if you are not bladdered by now why not?
Ha. Last night was part 1 of my Festival come down..quiet drinks…I needed to be fresh for the Midlands National… it may transpire that I should have just got bladdered..we will soon find out. Tonight will be more adventurous…don’t expect much on Sunday!
Haha..I like how you’ve phrased that…on the whole I know why I picked what I did! But that’s my restless perfectionism. You can always do more and I always think that I should be finding any horse that wins 10/1+. Knowing full well I won’t of course. There was another 50-70 tipping points lurking…with all the hard work having been done. But in truth I shouldn’t be greedy. I’d bite your hand off for +70 every Festival! On we go. Glad you had a good week.
Wow what a Cheltenham festival incredible took the bookies apart,took my lad on thursday for his 18th and he even ended up £300,been with racing to profit for a year now and its the best decision that ive ever made,thanks Josh and a big shout out to Nick who keeps tipping up big winners
On their way Josh
Mike
Cheltenham was fantastic with many thanks to Josh, Ian and Ben, I had a bank of £200 which now looks like £800 so I’m very happy even if I did lose the plot a bit on Friday and star splashing around with crazy doubles and forcasts that cost me around £100, but hey, that’s part of the fun I guess. Anyway I thought I’d try and calm down and get some discipline back by throwing in some stats for the Midlands National tomorrow with a shortlist, here goes –
GB/IRE bred
6 to 9 yo
best in 3 – 1st to 3rd
runs at track 0-1
runs season 2-7
wins season 0-2
weight not 11-7 to 11-12
LTO stats
class 1 to 3
race type chase
days since run 11-90
leaves me with these 4 – Western Climate, Ballymalin, Billy Bronco and Themanfrom Minella.
Hope everyone had a great week and don’t spend the winnings to quick!
Brilliant effort from Josh and the posters.
Thanks muchly
I must say that I’m wary of Kerry Lee’s runners as stat busters given the way her only two runners today finished along with the heavy ground and all that.
Thanks Josh for my most profitable festival ever . Enjoy your night out. I’m off out myself and have made enough for spending money for an upcoming family holiday .
Good stuff Ian, yep sounds like a wise use of winnings, you have to reinvest some into living a bit! Enjoy the holiday. Josh
Bar throwing some e/w shrapnel on Paddy’s outsider’s which paid for my beer the rest of the month I stuck rigidly to Josh’s and Ian’s tips at the festival. THANKYOU.
Unfortunately this has already led my son,daughter and the ‘noose’ to compliment me on everything from my unkempt appearance to my unerring ability to walk in a straight line when pissed as long as I’ve got my hands in my pockets, in which they are making repeated sorties.
Onto tomorrow
K 2.40 – Arthurs Gift @14e/w
Drop back in trip should help to negate the increasing weight gain and the going is of no concern. Fry’s is an obvious danger hence the e/w
U 3.00 – Sir Mangan@18e/w
Another dropping in trip and back to hurdles. Pulled up LTO and this may be a see where we are run, but is capable of winning this.
Mike
Clyne Uttoxeter Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w
Westy is back out again tomorrow and whilst I haven’t heard anything official yet I do think once again he is likely a place banker but I think he wail drift like last time. Personally will have a bet if he is 8/1+.
Bentelimar Kempton Saturday 15:15 1pt e/w
Charlie expected this one to win at Kempton if he didn’t get into the festival and considering he was close behind Terrefort and Gino Trail who were both runners up at the festival I tend to agree.
I have this one as well. Charlie Longsdon is 5 wins from 11 L/H LTO, going R/H this time in class 2 handicap chases. Got to be worth a punt, currently 11.0 on B/f.
Nick just to let you know Clyne is a pricewise selection!
Kiss of death!
Top tipping Pricewise Haha.
Would advise West of the Edge 1pt e/w in the Midlands National , would be surprised if he was out of the first 4/5.
Thanks for that Nick. I’ve just got home and noticed that Clyne popped up earlier too.
Tim, you’re a genius!
Although I don’t have the jockey/course stats, just restricting the number of runners has had a significant effect on my stats.
Based on my data from Oct to Mar my original strategy produces the following stats:
Staked 1456pts, Profit 354.61pts, ROI 24.36%
Restricting the races to between 5 & 11 runners, the stats are as follows:
Staked 877pts, Profit 432.20pts, ROI 49.29%
So I’ve reduced the stakes by nearly 500pts and increased profit by 80pts.
I tried various field sizes but this is the one that provides the best results.
I’ve made a couple of other tweaks so I’ll do a bit more poring over the stats to check I’ve not done anything stupid but this looks very promising.
It’s not quite the same as your system but many thanks for pointing me in this direction. I owe you one. Ken.
Sounds promising, like the sound of it. Good luck.
As expected, I did make a slight mistake! The figures above are for field sizes of 4-11 runners not 5-11 as I previously stated.
Is always best not to jump to conclusions until you press the ‘go’ button and run the analysis. I’m pleased to hear that it’s working for you and look forward to the new improved version. Not backed any yet myself so keep us posted as to how it pans out.
Thanks Tim. Will do
i’ll start by adding my thanks to Josh for all his hard work and great results at Cheltenham but we are a demanding lot here and as i’m off to Wetherby (weather permitting) tuesday i will be badgering you to look at the 3 handicaps on the card 🙂
Have you lost all faith in my non handicap ability haha – do they run an Albert bartlett type race on the card??! Yep no probs, I do need to start doing some more regular videos, should aim for 3 a week min really, in the 7m-20 min, i’ll see if we can highlight anything of use!
first is a seller last is a bumper , getting a lift so will probably be in the bar for those 2 🙂
Awesome week, stuck to the tips but staked e/w for the point as advised. Finished the week 43.5 Pts up!!! Brill Your the man Josh
when a free bet is not what it seems, i like many have taken advantage of some of the many offers from bookmakers over the festival including the money back as a free bet from skybet and betway, skybet no problems i.e. £20 free bet £10 ew staked on Barra @ 20-1 returns £40 just what you would expect, betway £20 free bet £10 ew staked on Whisky Sour @ 11-1 returns £12 !!!! digging a little deeper it seems that they deduct the win part of your stake from place winnings even though that part of the bet has lost it might be hidden in there t&c’s but is it legal?
Josh,
Just to add to the avalanche of congratulations you are receiving I am adding my own. I found the week very profitable and glad I joined for the festival. I also joined last year with a similar profitable outcome. Your site and SP2A are undoubtedly the best I have come across. The effort both sites put into analysing races is very impressive.
A belated Boooooooooommmmm!
Brilliant tipping – Won as it liked
Fantastic
Jo
Think I had the best Cheltenham I have had for a long while, what with Josh and Ian from SP2A steering my ship, it never looked like veering off course, or, sinking, as my tipping normally does at this time of year!
Onto today then.
15:35 Uttoxeter
HAINAIN 14/1 gen
Sue Smith is renowned for getting horses ready for these marathon trips and today Hainan is no different, was ridden a bit too prominent in Eider and this undulating course should play to his strengths.
THE ARTFUL COBBLER 15/2
Was game on the run in LTO at Lingfield when chalking up third win on the spin. Two of last three runs have come in conditions similar to todays. Claimer on board for the first time taking 5 off. Current form looks good and the heavier the better for the ground!
Thanks Josh for a successful and enjoyable Festival. The bank looks healthy which is a nice bonus.
Cheers
I tip my hat to Josh and also Ian over at Sp2a, with a bit of my own input I’ve walked away with +111 pts up, my best ever Cheltenham. Thank for your continuous hard work and making my work load a lot easier.
AW BETS
Wolverhampton
5.45 Mythical Madness
5.45 Krebs Cycle
8.15 Satchville Flyer
8.15 Society Ranger
8.15 Golden Eye
8.45 Multiviz
Morning Josh just a thought but could you possibly use a colour for w1 w2 to make easier to stand out thanks thanks again for a very good Cheltenham. Stephen
Morning Stephen… does ‘muddy brown’ as above next to Django, work?? Hard to find something that doesn’t clash with the red!
Josh
Congratulations Josh on a brilliant festival week topped off by a fantastic day yesterday. My only regret is that I stuck to my staking strategy! +57pts for the festival +43 yesterday. Well done and thank you. Mick.
Josh, just to add to all the adulation that you are rightly getting, many thanks for contributing to my best punting week ever ( Nick too btw) . As a long term subscriber I would also just like to mention to those above that have recently joined, it is not just for this week that this is the best racing blog ever, it always is, although admittedly not usually as profitable obviously. The chap that said that you and Ian at SP2A are the best is spot on in my opinion. Thank you once again.
Westy
Hats off to everyone, fantastic festival. I have just totted up and 43.56% ROI for Cheltenham. Well done Josh, Nick and SP2A and everyone’s contribution
Paul.
Brilliant Josh – can’t think of anything else that hasn’t already been said! Thank you so much.
I have not looked much after the previous four days intensity. Today I will go with:
2.40 KP Azzerti – won well LTO and may improve further?
3,15 KP Bun Doran – still think that there is more to come from this one.
3.35 UT Alfie Spinner – I know he is old now but his last two runs are solid.
I have also backed Josh’s selections.
Good luck today.
Muddy brown fine,cheers Josh
At the risk of allowing Josh’s head to get to a point where he can’t get through RTP towers door can I just add in my thanks for all the hard work and effort ploughing through all the stats and info for Cheltenham (& every other day!). As it happens I think that the staggering results we all enjoyed last week are a well-deserved bonus. We all benefit on a daily basis from the work ethic and hours Josh and all the other regular contributors put in. Thanks to you all for a great week. Ben
Too late, he is lodged in the doorway as we speak!
We will be seeing it reach into outer space now! Well done Josh!
And another! Way to go Josh, and top marks for your efforts all week. If Carlsberg did tipping weeks…
My apologies, got my sources mixed up on who tipped Clyne. Between Josh, Nick and the other contributors it’s been a great week for the portfolio. Keep up the good work guys, it’s much appreciated.
Game performance from Clyne to take that off top weight.
My apologies, got my sources mixed up on who tipped Clyne. Great call Nick, thanks as usual for sharing
I wish i’d have found him haha… my attention always on stats quals first /big Sat chase/hurdle races… thank the good lord Nick’s is often elsewhere. Piling up the profits since Sept 1st.
Good stuff Nick, gutsy, game, all class. Evan is back, and they really could start firing in the weeks ahead. I keep thinking a massive spring ahead for him an Hobbs given the yards have both been ill I think. We shall see.
Not so good with Bentelimar but I think we can let you off!! 🙂
Well, what else is there to say!! Fantastic
Josh you are on fire . Hats of to you thanks for a great week .
Haha Josh you magnificent bastard you!
Making this look easy Josh !
Wallop!! God I love that race, Chase The Spud last year 20s, Regal Flow this at 25s.
Festival Week 2018 done.
13 races / 6 wins / +92 points!
Get in.
Dotted up. My blind faith in you allowed me to back all selections and had Regal Flow at 25/1. Let’s all celebrate the win this evening. Excellent effort.
Aptly named, the regal flow of winners continues.
I’ve run out of superlatives, need a new language.
Had a point at 25/1, thank you so much again!
I’m at Ludlow Thursday, will give you a VERY big drink if you’re going.
Wow it just gets better
Call off the posse, put down those clubs & pitchforks, there won’t be hell to pay.
He’s only just gone and bloody well picked the winner of the Midlands National too.
Now would be a good time to retire 🙂
Josh, is your tipping something from a Carlsberg Advert ? Absolutely stunning…. lot’s of thanks.
I have always said my profit comes in spikes…. this is like Jan 16 where I plundered +90 points in the month.. appear to have done that in one week this year haha. That’s just how it goes. If I could bottle ‘this’ then I would, but that’s the game. The odds I play at this is how it goes. lull lull lull possible revival lull lull wallop!
Josh
Lies all lies! Just admit that the aliens take you back and leave behind a clone for the other 51 weeks!
that may be a plausible explanation!
Take a bow and a large glass of red sir
Fantastic stuff Josh. Great tipping. Genius 🙂
you,ve just gone @ done it again,well done josh,rounded off a great week of racing
Excellent stuff. Well done all round,
well done also to nick a very nice winner
Only getting £2.50_£5.00 stakes but thanks to Josh and RTP bank looking very healthy Stephen
Betting not getting. Stephen
Hi Stephen… don’t say ‘only’ it isn’t about the amount. We should all start at that level. I could have blown a 25 point bank and if you’d have dived in with 10s/20s and bet an amount you did not wish to lose it would have been the worst Festival week of all. I’m not going anywhere and neither is the sport of Kings. It’s a long long road. Onwards.
Josh
Give us a few losers will you Josh…My face is stuck in a grin….The Mrs thinks I’ve got another woman….god forbid….Another Cracker Josh…..Now for the Grand one…..
Tony Mc. another Jimmie’s…i’m becoming a p*** head. lol.
Get him to PM them to you Tony. I was hoping for one more winner there.