3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
5.Any Other Thoughts
Ah. Thank the lord for the gutsy Missed Approach otherwise i’d be sat here a bit disconsolate and that old Opus Dei kit (one for the regulars) would have been out again, blood everywhere… a maroon coloured blood with a big white star in the middle! 🙂 +6 points on the day if getting 12s on Missed Approach which was available in 3 places in evening and across the board in morning.
I am annoyed at not tipping The Storyteller… what idiot doesn’t tip a Russell/Gordon horse after days 1 and 2. And one on a race stats shortlist at that. Answers on a postcard. Oh, that’s me. Hopefully you all read the write up and had a saver on as minimum, maybe even winning a small bit on the race. He had the sort of profile to do that… but then again, looking for chasers priced north of 8/1 is why I nearly backed a 20/1 winner in Shantou Flyer and why I backed Missed Approach. And indeed the Coral winner at 28s. I prefer my brain to be trained in that way. But, I should have just tipped all three, in hindsight.
Delta Work is also annoying.. 10s/12s was probably worth a dabble… look at all the section 3 stats he hit! To miss a 12/1 Gigginstown winner in a handicap does hurt. Annoying. Maybe you had a tickle on him, I hope so. Happy enough with the two big darts, they were always being tipped…but just a case of how I could have squeezed him in… the form of connections/micro stats were more important than any trends he fell down on (age/French).. I mused that it may be between the three unexposed ones from Ireland. Two of them came 1st and 2nd. In truth, the JP runner up should have won. So it would have been a lucky tipped winner. Oh and PACE… Never again let me think any horse will get an easy lead in a Festival handicap hurdle!!
Taking on the Irish worked out in the end, just. But I should have had more faith in my micros for races 1+2. With a clearer mind we could have +18 points more, or even +51 with the Fred Winter.. one year I will nail them all! +31, I should be happy with that.
Another apology… I missed Penhill.. he hit some Townend stats.. I mean if anyone wishes to go through the Owners/trainers/jockey stats and see if I have missed anything you’re welcome to 🙂 (thanks in advance… the brain gets a bit mush sometimes during this week, maybe next year i’ll pay one of you to do that early sifting… i’ve missed him and Tiger Roll now.. frustrating as I know if posted some of you would have backed them, and that does annoy me. I wouldn’t have tipped them, but that is only part of the approach on here.
From the comments it sounds like one of you has won a few thousand from a superb multiple using some of section 3 qualifiers. From just £10. Superb effort. Champagne on you 🙂
(i have bet 11 points, and as always follow my own advice on the staking, as a minimum but if you want to protect more profit that’s up to you… if the worst happens we will still be on +20, have had some winners to cheer, and plenty of fun along the way. The same effort/approach/energy has gone into the selections as with every day and hopefully I can add at least 1 more winner to complete the four day set)
2.10 County Hurdle
Flying Tiger – 1.5 points win – 12/1 (gen) UP 6/1 (didn’t settle as hoped)
Whisky Sour – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365 + WH/BetBright) 12/1 (gen) 3rd
Brelade – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) UP
Smaoineamh Alainn – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP
(4 points total)
Discorama – 1 point EW – 40/1 2nd 40/1>33/1 (+9 points)
Blow By Blow – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) WON 12/1
Dresden – 1 point win – 40/1 (bet365/BV) 33/1 (gen) Fell
Some Plan – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) BD (loose horse, unsighted)
Dolos – 1 point win – 18/1 (BetfS/PP/BV) 16/1 (gen) (awful)
2.50 : Albert Bartlett
Kilbrichen Storm – 1/2 point win – 50/1 (BetfS/PP) 40s (gen) (take a chance on BFSP?…) WON 50/1 , 46.00 BFSP (I need a lie down)
Mulcahys Hill – 1/2 point win – 50/1 (gen) 40/1 (gen) (as above..) UP
TOTAL: +69.5 points on week I think…
That will be all for tips.
11 points spread around like confetti, +20 points guaranteed for Festival Week 2018, whatever happens. I’d have taken that before the week started and i’d probably view that as par. Fingers crossed i can add to it.
3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
All Set To Go (m3, 16/1<)
Smaoine Alainn (m3, 16/1<)
Ben Dundee (m2, 25/1<)
Ivanovich Gorbatov (m2, 25/1<)
Whiskey Sour (m5, 25/1<)
Le Richebourg (m5, 25/1<)
Paisley Park (m4,33/1<)
Blow By Blow (m5, 25/1<)
Deal Destruval (m1, m5, 25/1<)
Discorama (m5, 25/1<)
Flawless Escape (m5, 25/1<)
Burrows Saint (m1)
Rock The World (m5, 25/1<)
The Game Changer (m5, 25/1<)
Three Stars (m2, 25/1<)
1.30 – Apples Shakira
2.50 – Any that are 9/1< SP
4.50 – Sire Du Berlais / Early Doors
2.10 – Duca De Thaix
4.50 – Blow By Blow (16/1<)
5.30 – The Game Changer (16/1<)
Divine Bere (Nicholls)
Willie Mullins – All 25/1< SP (guide..given the week he is having..)
Duka De Thaix (GE, 12/1< best… guide!)
Ben Dundee (as above)
Brelade (as above)
Gordon Elliot – all, 12/1< guide (we had the 20/1 winner of this race last year)
Mullins – all, 25/1< SP (guide.. etc etc)
Brave Eagle (14/1< best )
5.30 – Vaniteux (16/1<)
2.10 – Ben Dundee (‘micro’ 20/1<)
2.50 – Dortmund Park (‘micro’ 20/1<)
5.30 – Vaniteux (33/1<)
(all Friday rides basically…usually does well on this day, or has done…)
1.30 – Mr Adjudicator
2.10- whatever one he rides.. Meri Devie
2.50 – Whatever he rides in this…
3.30 – as above
5.30 – as above… Townshend
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
Full run through.. under 25 minutes!
Danger horses not tipped: Duca De Thaix / Ben Dundee (i don’t think either will be good enough… but it’s you know who and they hit plenty of stats above) / Merie Devie (also not sure good enough, but it’s Mullins!) / Divin Bere.. 40/1 hist Nicholls above.. surely he’s not winning?? £2 BFSP just in case maybe 🙂 .. Spiritofthegames hit my stats also, but I didn’t fancy his chance.
Do note.. I think it will be a long afternoon ahead if one of the four tips doesn’t win, i’m as bullish as I can be in a race of this sort. Very excited to see how it plays out.
As per video… I have 10 10/10 stats in my stats profile, and only two horses hit them. So, I tipped them, given the odds! I have tipped up a 50/1 winner of this race before on these pages, Very Wood in 2014. And also the winner the year after that I think… both when it was riding soft. So, we shall see. IF the stats profile holds (highly likely it won’t!) then we will have just backed the winner 🙂
3.30 Gold Cup
As many of you will know, having mentioned it since Xmas, I backed Might Bite (only £10 on nose) at 10/1 earlier in the season. I will be sticking with him. I have no strong views on this race. I think the ground makes it more a lottery now and will tax his stamina – 4s is probably too short in that context but he is the one they all have to beat. No trainer has every won the Champion Hurdle/ Champion Chase and Gold Cup in the same year – it would be some feat for Henderson, and good luck to him. I am not sure Our Duke jumps well enough and it’s his first run around here. That may be nonsense of course.
At bigger prices, for fun, maybe Road to Respect / Edwulf / Definitly Red may give any backers something to cheer for interest, at least until 3 from home when Might Bite powers away.
Deferred to Darran’s free preview as below. I’ll just be betting change on all three for interest.
Ah,very open and one big poke in this.
Those on race stats shortlist: Delire Destruval / Early Doors / Discorama / Arthington / No Hassle Hoff / Burrows Saint
Maybe one of the other biggies I haven’t tipped goes in?? I thought the English challenge looked mediocre and given how this week has gone, i’d have thought the Irish may add this one to the tally. Maybe some of those are worth a nibble at BFSP just in case 🙂 Burrows Saint is Mullins and has Lizzie booked, could go ok, but if a horse in these colours runs in a handicap it usually indicates they are not highly thought of! Red faces at the ready. Flawless Escape could take this, but 7s in a race like this. Happy to take on, but we know what happens now! At least he isn’t 10s/12s and I am ignoring him.
Stats shortlist from initial sift: Don’t Touch It / Vaniteux / Dolos / Garde Le Victoire / Some Plan / Gino Trail / Top gamble / Townshend
There are some other strong pointers and Dolos and Some Plan come out well against those. You can make a case and at 18s+ i had to have a go. Dresden was a silly price at 40s/33s, he could go very very well.. IF he gets luck in running I suspect he will place at worst…so you EW backers may get some return.
Dangers… well Townshend may be worth some change but I didn’t think looked good enough. But its Mullins and he’s on the shortlist above. I should also mention Doitforthevillage who may out-run his 33/1 odds. Maybe.
Oh and a the other two Nicholls horses looked of interest, I had a good look but dodged them, Le Prezien and Bouvreuil.. I can’t back every horse in the race !
That’s the lot.
5.Any Other Thoughts
Free Guest Preview for Foxhunters is HERE>>>
Bonus.. in depth look at County Hurdle (skimmed through in video above) if you so care for how my brain thinks about such races…
(or how not to do it!! 🙂 )
Those of you who joined for Festival Week have full access to the members club through to the 25th March, including exclusive access to tomorrow’s post where i’ll endeavour to boost the week’s profits by finding the winner of the Midlands National. Free posts will return on Monday.
Thanks for joining this week. There will be options to trial the main members club from the 25th but if that’s not for you, with any luck i’ll see you all again for Festival 2019! 🙂