Festival 2018: Day 4 (COMPLETE)

ALL TIPS + VIDEO PREVIEW + preview/notes/danger horses etc..

Day 4

1.Intro/re cap

2.TIPS: Summary

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

5.Any Other Thoughts


Day 4

1.Intro/re cap

+31 points… 

Ah. Thank the lord for the gutsy Missed Approach otherwise i’d be sat here a bit disconsolate and that old Opus Dei kit (one for the regulars) would have been out again, blood everywhere… a maroon coloured blood with a big white star in the middle! 🙂  +6 points on the day if getting 12s on Missed Approach which was available in 3 places in evening and across the board in morning.

I am annoyed at not tipping The Storyteller… what idiot doesn’t tip a Russell/Gordon horse after days 1 and 2. And one on a race stats shortlist at that. Answers on a postcard. Oh, that’s me. Hopefully you all read the write up and had a saver on as minimum, maybe even winning a small bit on the race. He had the sort of profile to do that… but then again, looking for chasers priced north of 8/1 is why I nearly backed a 20/1 winner in Shantou Flyer and why I backed Missed Approach.  And indeed the Coral winner at 28s. I prefer my brain to be trained in that way. But, I should have just tipped all three, in hindsight.

Delta Work is also annoying.. 10s/12s was probably worth a dabble… look at all the section 3 stats he hit! To miss a 12/1 Gigginstown winner in a handicap does hurt. Annoying. Maybe you had a tickle on him, I hope so. Happy enough with the two big darts, they were always being tipped…but just a case of how I could have squeezed him in… the form of connections/micro stats were more important than any trends he fell down on (age/French).. I mused that it may be between the three unexposed ones from Ireland. Two of them came 1st and 2nd. In truth, the JP runner up should have won. So it would have been a lucky tipped winner. Oh and PACE… Never again let me think any horse will get an easy lead in a Festival handicap hurdle!!

Taking on the Irish worked out in the end, just. But I should have had more faith in my micros for races 1+2. With a clearer mind we could have +18 points more, or even +51 with the Fred Winter.. one year I will nail them all! +31, I should be happy with that.

Another apology… I missed Penhill.. he hit some Townend stats.. I mean if anyone wishes to go through the Owners/trainers/jockey stats and see if I have missed anything you’re welcome to 🙂 (thanks in advance… the brain gets a bit mush sometimes during this week, maybe next year i’ll pay one of you to do that early sifting… i’ve missed him and Tiger Roll now.. frustrating as I know if posted some of you would have backed them, and that does annoy me. I wouldn’t have tipped them, but that is only part of the approach on here.

From the comments it sounds like one of you has won a few thousand from a superb multiple using some of section 3 qualifiers. From just £10. Superb effort. Champagne on you 🙂


Let’s go…

(i have bet 11 points, and as always follow my own advice on the staking, as a minimum but if you want to protect more profit that’s up to you… if the worst happens we will still be on +20, have had some winners to cheer, and plenty of fun along the way. The same effort/approach/energy has gone into the selections as with every day and hopefully I can add at least 1 more winner to complete the four day set)


2.TIPS: Summary

2.10 County Hurdle

Flying Tiger – 1.5 points win – 12/1 (gen) UP 6/1 (didn’t settle as hoped)

Whisky Sour – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365 + WH/BetBright) 12/1 (gen) 3rd 

Brelade – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) UP

Smaoineamh Alainn 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

(4 points total)



Discorama – 1 point EW – 40/1 2nd 40/1>33/1 (+9 points)

Blow By Blow – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) WON 12/1 




Dresden – 1 point win – 40/1 (bet365/BV) 33/1 (gen) Fell

Some Plan – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) BD (loose horse, unsighted)

Dolos – 1 point win – 18/1 (BetfS/PP/BV) 16/1 (gen) (awful)


Bonus Race

2.50 : Albert Bartlett

Kilbrichen Storm – 1/2 point win – 50/1 (BetfS/PP) 40s (gen) (take a chance on BFSP?…) WON 50/1 , 46.00 BFSP (I need a lie down) 

Mulcahys Hill – 1/2 point win – 50/1 (gen) 40/1 (gen) (as above..) UP



TOTAL: +69.5 points on week I think…


That will be all for tips. 

11 points spread around like confetti, +20 points guaranteed for Festival Week 2018, whatever happens. I’d have taken that before the week started and i’d probably view that as par. Fingers crossed i can add to it.


3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

Micros x5

2.10 –

All Set To Go (m3, 16/1<)

Brelade (m3,16/1<)

Smaoine Alainn (m3, 16/1<)

Ben Dundee (m2, 25/1<)

Ivanovich Gorbatov (m2, 25/1<)

Sandsend (m1)

Whiskey Sour (m5, 25/1<)

Le Richebourg (m5, 25/1<)

2.50 –

Paisley Park (m4,33/1<)


4.50 –

Blow By Blow (m5, 25/1<)

Deal Destruval (m1, m5, 25/1<)

Discorama (m5, 25/1<)

Flawless Escape (m5, 25/1<)

Burrows Saint (m1)


5.30 –

Rock The World (m5, 25/1<)

The Game Changer (m5, 25/1<)

Three Stars (m2, 25/1<)




JP (9/1<)

1.30 – Apples Shakira

2.50 – Any that are 9/1< SP

4.50 – Sire Du Berlais / Early Doors



2.10 – Duca De Thaix

4.50 – Blow By Blow (16/1<)

5.30 – The Game Changer (16/1<)



2.10 –

Divine Bere (Nicholls)

Willie Mullins – All 25/1< SP (guide..given the week he is having..)

Duka De Thaix (GE, 12/1< best… guide!)

Ben Dundee (as above)

Brelade (as above)

4.50 –

Gordon Elliot – all, 12/1< guide (we had the 20/1 winner of this race last year)

Mullins – all, 25/1< SP (guide.. etc etc)

Brave Eagle (14/1< best )

5.30 – Vaniteux (16/1<)




2.10 – Ben Dundee (‘micro’ 20/1<)

2.50 – Dortmund Park (‘micro’ 20/1<)



5.30 – Vaniteux (33/1<)


Townend (25/1<)

(all Friday rides basically…usually does well on this day, or has done…)

1.30 – Mr Adjudicator

2.10- whatever one he rides.. Meri Devie

2.50 – Whatever he rides in this…

3.30 – as above

5.30 – as above… Townshend


4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

Full run through.. under 25 minutes!





Danger horses not tipped: Duca De Thaix / Ben Dundee (i don’t think either will be good enough… but it’s you know who and they hit plenty of stats above) / Merie Devie (also not sure good enough, but it’s Mullins!) / Divin Bere.. 40/1 hist Nicholls above.. surely he’s not winning?? £2 BFSP just in case maybe 🙂 .. Spiritofthegames hit my stats also, but I didn’t fancy his chance.

Do note..  I think it will be a long afternoon ahead if one of the four tips doesn’t win, i’m as bullish as I can be in a race of this sort. Very excited to see how it plays out.


As per video… I have 10  10/10 stats in my stats profile, and only two horses hit them. So, I tipped them, given the odds! I have tipped up a 50/1 winner of this race before on these pages, Very Wood in 2014. And also the winner the year after that I think… both when it was riding soft. So, we shall see. IF the stats profile holds (highly likely it won’t!) then we will have just backed the winner 🙂

3.30 Gold Cup

As many of you will know, having mentioned it since Xmas, I backed Might Bite (only £10 on nose) at 10/1 earlier in the season. I will be sticking with him. I have no strong views on this race. I think the ground makes it more a lottery now and will tax his stamina – 4s is probably too short in that context but he is the one they all have to beat. No trainer has every won the Champion Hurdle/ Champion Chase and Gold Cup in the same year – it would be some feat for Henderson, and good luck to him. I am not sure Our Duke jumps well enough and it’s his first run around here. That may be nonsense of course.

At bigger prices, for fun, maybe Road to Respect / Edwulf / Definitly Red  may give any backers something to cheer for interest, at least until 3 from home when Might Bite powers away.


Deferred to Darran’s free preview as below. I’ll just be betting change on all three for interest.


Ah,very open and one big poke in this.

Those on race stats shortlist: Delire Destruval / Early Doors / Discorama / Arthington / No Hassle Hoff / Burrows Saint 

Maybe one of the other biggies I haven’t tipped goes in?? I thought the English challenge looked mediocre and given how this week has gone, i’d have thought the Irish may add this one to the tally. Maybe some of those are worth a nibble at BFSP just in case 🙂 Burrows Saint is Mullins and has Lizzie booked, could go ok, but if a horse in these colours runs in a handicap it usually indicates they are not highly thought of! Red faces at the ready. Flawless Escape could take this, but 7s in a race like this. Happy to take on, but we know what happens now! At least he isn’t 10s/12s and I am ignoring him.



Stats shortlist from initial sift: Don’t Touch It / Vaniteux / Dolos / Garde Le Victoire / Some Plan / Gino Trail / Top gamble / Townshend 

There are some other strong pointers and Dolos and Some Plan come out well against those. You can make a case and at 18s+ i had to have a go. Dresden was a silly price at 40s/33s, he could go very very well.. IF he gets luck in running I suspect he will place at worst…so you EW backers may get some return.

Dangers… well Townshend may be worth some change but I didn’t think looked good enough. But its Mullins and he’s on the shortlist above. I should also mention Doitforthevillage  who may out-run his 33/1 odds. Maybe.

Oh and a the other two Nicholls horses looked of interest, I had a good look but dodged them, Le Prezien and Bouvreuil.. I can’t back every horse in the race !


That’s the lot.


5.Any Other Thoughts


Free Guest Preview for Foxhunters is HERE>>>


Bonus.. in depth look at County Hurdle (skimmed through in video above) if you so care for how my brain thinks about such races…

(or how not to do it!! 🙂 )




Those of you who joined for Festival Week have full access to the members club through to the 25th March, including exclusive access to tomorrow’s post where i’ll endeavour to boost the week’s profits by finding the winner of the Midlands National. Free posts will return on Monday. 

Thanks for joining this week. There will be options to trial the main members club from the 25th but if that’s not for you, with any luck i’ll see you all again for Festival 2019! 🙂 



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

102 Responses

  1. Early one for me which I think will get backed and 3+ bookies now offering 5 places or more:

    Whiskey Sour Cheltenham Friday 14:10 0.75pt e/w

    1. Whiskey Sour Cheltenham Friday 14:10 0.75pt e/w
      Spiritofthegames Cheltenham Friday 14:10 0.75pt e/w
      Poetic Rhythm Cheltenham Friday 14:50 1pt e/w
      Road To Respect Cheltenham Friday 15:30 1pt e/w

      Hope you guys managed to get the early price on Whiskey which has been hammered since this morning (was available at 20/1 or 18/1 6 places when posted). That will be it for tomorrow from me but have had £5 e/w on Mohayeb in the County who I am certain is well treated however give the jockey booking I suspect is being aimed at Ayr again and also £5 e/w on Calett Mad in the Albert Bartlett.

      1. I’m wondering if it might have been Pricewise’d. What time did you do your bet Nick? I placed mine at 2140 when it was 14/1 with Hills and 365. If the shorting in the price is because Segal tipped it, most bookies will go back to their original price first thing in the morning.

        1. As Chesterfield hit the straight my 33/1 each way and a £20K pick up were looking good! However the place bet pays well. Whiskey Sour went well but the hill is a killer.

  2. I have only looked at three races for Friday as i have been out watching my wife at dog agility! Some decent hurdlers there though. Anyway keeping it horse relater, I am on Chesterfield at 33/1 in the 2.10. He has some good form in the past and has been targeted at this. I know Flying Tiger is well touted for this race and may well have him as well? I have also backed Valdez in the 5.30 at 20/1. He has been off the course for circa 3 years and then came back and had a blow in a three runner race. I guess he is fragile but must be well handicapped on old form. The fox hunters is not my sort of race but I enjoyed the article posted separately and so am on Foxrock at 9/1. I know that he is well regarded in Ireland.
    I will tackle the other four races in the morning.

    1. Hope you listened to me and had something on Mohaayed mate. Didn’t see any reason why Chesterfield would reverse the form.

      1. No, followed you on Whiskey Sour and so had 3rd and 4th. Chesterfield was put to me as a plot job before last AW win but yes should have noticed the form. But a decent pick up on both above.

  3. Just wanted to say thanks to Josh aka king of the handicaps. I’m a relatively new RTP member and have been mightily impressed so far! Very interesting content in the comments as well from the various contributors, so ta! Thursday was a good day, backed the Gordon Elliot treble early morning, ended up taking £1.6k off Denise 365 with a £2.50 stake, happy days! MA topped it off to finish on a massive high. Same again Friday, ha!

    1. my pleasure Paddy, thanks for joining for the week… sounds like you have done rather well! 🙂 super betting, make sure you treat yourself/others to something nice with those winners.. can get a good holiday out of that!
      bets of luck today,
      there is always something of interest on these pages,

  4. 3 days profit,well done Josh.I have not had a personal bet at the festival,outside of Josh’s recommendations,due to farm and work commitments,when you haven’t got time its best left.So my sole bet is Poetic Rhythm 2.50,a very tough and dogged horse,may not have the class,but will run his heart out.Will be hoping for a few more home victories until Twickenham tomorrow.Best of Luck all

  5. good luck all today, the research, informtion and suggested advice has been nothing short of top drawer. Be lucky today guys, personally my handicap fancy of the week goes in the last today, old VANITUEX. Good luck everyone today

  6. Gosh, it is hard today! As well as the slections I have made above, I have followed in with Whiskey Sour. Apples Shakira is very short. It is JP’s nap of the week. I would have a go at 2/1 but not less. The clerk of the course says that the going for the Gold Cup will be good to soft as it is virgin ground. I do like Might Bite as he has won me money before. I would like 5/1. I also like Our Duke as he has a good profile for this. In the Foxhunters, as well as Foxrock I like Unioniste at the price. He is going well this season and will stay the distance. In the 4.50 I like Flawless Escape each way. I am still working on the races and will no doubt have other bets!!

    Good luck

  7. Day 4.
    Redicean 5-1 £20 win money back skybet
    Mr Adjudicator 8-1 £10 win money back betway
    Sussex Ranger 20-1 £5 ew free bet B365
    Flying Tiger 11-1 £10 ew free bet skybet
    Whisky Sour 11-1 £10 ew free bet betway
    Brelade 33-1 £5 ew
    Smaoineamh Alainn 16-1 £2-50 ew
    Dortmund Park 16-1 £5 ew
    Calett Mad 16-1 £5 ew
    Definitly Red 11-1 £5 ew
    Anibale Fly 28-1 £2-50 ew

    after reading Darran Pearce’s article i’ll stick with his and have £2-50 ew on all 3
    1st Foxrock 15-2
    2nd Virak 14-1
    3rd Balnaslow 18-1

    Discorama 40-1 £5 ew
    Blow By Blow 11-1 £5 ew
    Poppy Kay 66-1 £1 ew
    Vaniteux 11-1 £10 win money back betway.
    and thats all folks.

  8. I will go with a formula that i have used to find a few Gold Cup Winners so my pin drops on Road To Respect.A young improving horse with course form.The win of Balko Des Flos has franked his win at Leopardstown

  9. Checking in at the course, good luck to absolutely everyone on anything today, on all your tips today Josh and, yes, Ive had a few Guiness already 🙂

  10. Thanks for the free bet Mr SkyBet on Farclas….off to a flyer, just a shame I forgot to double it with Road To Respect.

    1. It’s missed that triumph one haha – problem is, everything is now just running well for them that the stats may become irrelevant haha – Ian/Sp2A tipped that one though. But yep, happy with how they have performed. And to think I haven’t tipped one yet, sometimes I do wonder what’s in my morning coffee!! 🙂

  11. Well well what a surprise banker of the week in the 1 .30 according to some, ran a stinker bookies made a killing with all the lemmings following the word from the inside source,now then can i have £50 grand on the one really fancied bookie of course you can and we will give you an extra point on the price.

    1. far too keen, no idea why you’d lump on a young juvenile in ground like that , at a Festival.. she just pulled too hard, no chance of getting home, and may well just not have been good enough.

      1. Did not back it would not trust a word from that crowd, quote from you Josh no idea why you’d lump on a young juvenile in ground like that.
        Then i ask the question why does a successful owner say on TV live on camera that is his Cheltenham banker it beggars belief and i wonder how much the bookies made out of that quote,have said before they do not run their horses for us.

  12. Hi Josh

    I was looking for last year midlands trends and only found 2 which if you use this year reduces the possibles to 6 horses. Can you post the full trends for me please. Thanks

    1. Hi Sandip,
      I will when I get a chance, was a bit focused on Cheltenham today! 🙂 They take 25-40 mins to go through properly and for now i’m enjoying the racing. They will be posted, at some point, later today with any luck.

    1. Well done Josh, I had it for peanuts as I wanted to back Ballyward and Poetic Rhythm in the race. 33/1 was excellent as a couple of others put it up elsewhere but the price held. Have a drink and a lay down on me.

  13. Well done Josh.

    I hope nobody asks for their £9 +VAT back but if they do I would politely or perhaps not so politely tell them where to go !

    1. cheers. haha – I have no control over it, all independent via CB, but if anyone does then I may note down their details haha. ( I would say i’m joking, but i’d almost fall off my chair and they wouldn’t ever be welcome on these pages again)

  14. AARGH. Kilbrichen Storm, got the early races on and been in meetings only just had chance to check the last update! never mind still had a great week!

    1. Ah Steve, sorry to read that. Next time, and we still have a few bullets to fire..
      I was so tired last night, i very nearly put the ‘no more tips’ sign up, and didn’t bother looking at the race… refrained and dragged myself to bed, and attacked fresh. Ideally i’d have boxed off night before but it is a long old week! Damn.

      1. That was a bit like me. Barely looked at the last two. Feeling a little brain-dead now so have had an e/w bet on Melrose Boy in the Martin Pipe.

      2. Not to worry, had a great day at the track with 4 winners Yesterday and my Native River Ante-Post has just come in so mustn’t grumble!

  15. Given its the small one/fancies going in I thought I would mentioned I’ve had £5 e/w on Definitely Red also.

    1. I wish I did haha. Had a small top up BFSP.. as is always my want in part i’m kicking myself for not 1 full point on each.. but… i had emptied the satchel already… before I went through stats and saw only two hit 10/10.. had i looked at race first, we may be +25 points better off ‘officially’ but I’m glad you ignored me and went the full 1 point! Still, perfectionism is impossible and clearly I am delighted! Lost my voice from cheering him home.
      A few good bullets to come!

      1. Was available at 70.0 at 2.30pm when I put the bet on, could’ve taken that.

        But I’m not exactly kicking myself.

  16. Josh

    You need put to up more of these 10/10.
    “I have 10 10/10 stats in my stats profile, and only two horses hit them.” Just like that.
    No matter how many it fires up.
    Great Stats.


    1. Oh that is the only race all week where that has happened haha…
      the rest of the 10/10 stats have been firing out 8-13+ horses etc. I have listed most of them that hit shortlists throughout the week. I’ll trust them more next year, and for ever more when on soft!!

  17. Oh my word. Brilliant tipping Josh. Didn’t see the race as still at work but great surprise see it pop up in my winners. Even better I also had it at 33s on an AP bet. Take a bow young man 🙂

    1. Well done again Josh, sadly I did not have the forecast. Time for a drink times x this evening!

    2. You mind sharing what you’ve copped from the bookies there? £2 on the forecast is near £700, brilliant! Why didn’t i think of that. Tote exacta £613. Mad

      1. It was quite a lot, the most I have ever won in one day, let alone on one race.

        And that’s not counting Kilbricken Storm’s contribution.

        When I joined this site my standard stake was £25 win on one of my stats qualifiers, £50 point on a tipster, subscribed to two very good tipsters.

        So I followed your tips and notes for £25, I had the betting bank to do that.

        Won a few bob, promoted you to tipster status January 1st. Was winning well with my own stats too, promoted myself.

        So have been having £50 on your notes horses, £10 reversed forecasts.

        My own stats threw up Blow By Blow twice, so had £100. You tipped it so had £50. But had an extra £50 because we agreed. Half Betfair at 16.0, half Matchbook at 15.5 last night.

        Managed to put the forecadt on twice by mistake. Also had combination fc and tc for £5 unit with Deal D’Estruval. So had £25 on the forecast.

        Matchbook no commission +£1,450
        Betfair after 4.5% comm +£1,432.50
        £25 forecast 340.90 +£8,522.50

        Less £100 DD £50 Discorama, £40 fc stake, £60 cfc ctc stake.

        Profit on one race = £11,155.

        I’ll email Josh proof of fc bets if he wants.

        To quote a tv programme, it’s good here isn’t it?

        1. bloody hell! Superb stuff. Do you also want to pay for my summer holiday’s? haha.
          Well done, glad to be of some service

  18. This is mad!! of course I didn’t do the forecast! Damn.
    Well done those of you who did.
    I didn’t foresee an easy lead there! ironic given what I said above in re-cap. Had there been a proper pace, the second would have won. I can’t complain.

  19. Hahaha Josh you couldn’t even find the winner in the County Hurdle, what sort of service is this????
    And you have the cheek to get a 1-2…..sorry I think I’ve gone a bit mad.

    1. I know, awful, and that’s the race I was most confident on haha What a day. And still one more to go.

  20. josh,next time you are on a downer,think back to this day with a smile on your face..Well done my man.

    1. Ha, I will think back to the week! More content now, as given the winners the content has found I really should have been going into today on 40+, so to be on +66.5 points I think for the week, is much more like it! And one race to go. Dreamland if one of those comes in.

  21. I hope plenty of non members signed up for this week. They will surely all want to stay long term. Well done yet again Josh.
    Brilliant service.

    1. If only it was like this every week haha. Although even for £5 per point it has paid for a year and left plenty over for beer! 🙂

  22. Amazing work Josh – never seen results like this – your hard work has truly paid off. Great stuff

  23. Got to say, 2 years and the best person ever! for great horse racing
    All credit. Keep up the good work

  24. For all those times you thought ” Need to change this/that to start winning again!”, you can now say “See…told myself i can do it!!?” Well done Josh!!!
    I have been really busy this week, but followed you and SP2A over the last few days and what a brilliant return! Just take the flat season off and you`ll be fine…haha!
    Really chuffed for you!

  25. As a complete novice to betting on horses, I rely on services like this and the one provided by Nick Pullen. I don’t pretend to understand half of what’s been said, but even betting at embarrassing low stakes I have grown my small starting bank 400%. Means I can treat the missus and have some left to follow more of your brilliant advice. Thanks Josh, and all the other poster whose tips I’ve followed.

  26. Thanks all, that was rather good fun. My best Festival ever, last year’s was the best before that, bring on 2019! I wondered if I was just waiting to bounce into form this week. So it proved 🙂

  27. Josh I just want to highlight the weakness you showed when going ew on Discorama tut tut!
    Seriously fantastic tipping and even with using reduced staking the profits were fantastic.
    well done and thank you
    SP2A have been fantastic this week as well.

  28. I hate this feeling now, the post Cheltenham come down from what is the best four days of the year. Normal life resumes, and the countdown begins for next year.

    I take my hat off to all the brave jockeys and horses who provide us with such exhilarating and memorable moments, without them where would we be?

    Josh, thanks for the work you put in and congratulations on an amazing week, roll on Aintree! (no pressure mind you!)

  29. Josh. Following you and Sp2a over the last four days has given me my best Cheltenham ever! Many thanks.

  30. Thanks very much Josh and whoever put up Penhill earlier in the week. Look forward to sticking around for a while.

  31. The bar has been well and truly raised.
    If you don’t pick the Midlands National winner there’ll be hell to pay. 🙂

    1. I agree Josh. If you don’t manage 100pt profit at next year’s festival it will have been a disappointment mate!

  32. Ah Eh! Josh…your over working my liver…I’ve just had to send the dog for another bottle of Jimmie’s….
    Keep the faith auld son like we do….terrific stuff…Take a bow

    Tony mc.

  33. What went wrong last race mate !!
    Seriously what a fantastic week – winner after winner at great prices has made this my best festival ever
    If you get down to Cheltenham in the future I’ll stand you a big one
    Have a nice drink and a lie down and get refreshed to attack Uttoxeter tomorrow

  34. What a great week Josh I’m not a big better but your tips have made the festival more enjoyable than ever. Great work.

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