Members Daily Post: 16/03/18 (complete)

Section 1 + zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Fake  – None

Muss

11.30 –

The Compellor   (micro TJC) 11/1 S2  2nd 

Nendrum   (HcH) H1 I1 9/4  UP

1.50 –

Buckled   (HcH) w1 H1 I1 G3  7/2 S4  UP

Arthurs Secret   (HcH) 8/1 2nd 7/2

Alizee de Janeiro   (Micro TJC) I3 11/1 S2 S5  UP

2.30 –

Misfits   (micro TJC) w2 H3 I3 G3  3/1 S4 UP

Attention Please  (HcCh) w1 H1 I1 5/4  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None. I won’t have time.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Sorry, bit behind.. posting at 10.15…

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

5.30 Chelt – Doitforthevillage (m1/3) DNQ

2.50 Chelt – Poetic Rhythm (m1) DNQ

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

11.30 Muss – Character Onesie (m3) 3rd 8/1

1.10 Muss – Nefyn Bay (m3) w1 w2 WON 9/4

4.35 Fake – What Happens Now (m1) 2nd

 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide, esp Festival!)

All Chelt..

2.10 – Brelade DNQ

4.50 – Sire Du Berlais DNQ

5.30 – Rock The World DNQ/ The Game Changer

*

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

*

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. Hi Ken…..

    All the parameters and variables I use for consideration are exported from the Proform database into a Libre program that does all the calculating and displays the results in an easy to read format. Currently…. despite the downturn in winners everything remains the same, only the = (# of runners – 1), On course jockey SR => 5%, are returning a profit.

    I’ve just had a play with the variables and removed class 6/7 races of which there were 66 in total in the sample mentioned above. It had the following effect:-

    All races in the preferred sample….. SR 10.23, ROI 26.33, P/L +56.61
    All races (as above) less Class 6 & 7…SR 11.41, ROI 41.58, P/L +61.96

    So from my perspective I can say that class 6 &7 races are looking like a long term break even prospect, but it is still only a small sample. All the non-qualifying groups are showing a loss which aggregates to around -32 points from 465 races to date.

    I recently started logging Colin’s AW bets cos I thought it might provide an interesting comparison as well as a control to the experiment. Reason being is that he shows a long term profit to ISP, (no odds distortion caused by early prices), so in theory we have a better chance of seeing profits across the board but interestingly he too is only showing a profit in the same category at the moment.

    The sample is way too small to draw any conclusions yet, but I have to admit that I’m keen to see what happens next.

    Tim

    1. Hi Ken….. It’s only gone and done it again. The first paragraph should have been….

      All the parameters and variables I use for consideration are exported from the Proform database into a Libre program that does all the calculating and displays the results in an easy to read format. Currently…. despite the downturn in winners everything remains the same, only the = (# of runners – 1), On course jockey SR => 5%, are returning a profit.

      This text editor is driving me mad!

      Tim

      1. Aaaaarrrggghhh…… I don’t believe it! It’s still missing it out. The parameters of the profitable sample are:-

        ” = (# of runners – 1), + On course jockey SR => 5%, are returning a profit.”

        This text editor is completely mad!

        Tim

        1. I do need to review the comments functionality. It’s on the list! Blog does need some more money spending on it.
          Josh

    2. Hi Tim,

      Just one observation that immediately comes to mind. I’m surprised that removing Class 6 has has little effect on your results because Class 6 is by far and away the best performing Class in my stats.

      1. Actually, I’ve just done a check on Class 6 for Feb/Mar. Feb was OK but not great. March has been poor. Prior to that it was way ahead of every other class.

      2. This is what I mean when I say ‘don’t change anything’. It doesn’t surprise me that you are finding them to be profitable but I’m not. This is only because they are not very competitive races so punters are finding them relatively easily and backing them in accordingly. By comparison this hardly ever happens in a class 2 or 3 race where it is easy to make a case for almost every runner in the race.

  2. Ok…. This is the last chance. If this doesn’t work I’m through with it.

    The parameters are…. Field size = (# of runners -1), on course jockey strike rate => 5%

    Josh… you really need a decent text editor.

    Tim

    1. DAMN, DAMN, DAMN!! It missed out the odds requirement this time. Anyways….if you put all the messages together you can maybe work out the rules by piecing it all together.

      Tim

      1. Josh….. it may be because I’m using mathematical symbols that are maybe functional or control characters within the text editor’s program cos it only seems to happen when I use special characters in my post. I’m not a coder as such but I have some experience because all my PC’s run Linux operating systems. Not a big fan of the snail paced leaky bucket people choose to buy off of Mr Gates.

        Tim

        1. I’m just catching up with the blog tonight to see that Tim and Josh’s blog are on the verge of divorce haha 🙂

          Thanks Tim, I’ll copy and paste the text from all your posts into Bill Gates MS Word and try to decipher it.

          So just to clarify …………… no better not haha.

          1. Hi Tim

            If I’m correct I think you are saying
            Max no. of runners equals 11
            Min odds equals no. of runners minus 1
            Jockey on course SR is greater than or equal to 5 per cent

            Is that correct?

            Hopefully by not using symbols this will work.

          2. Why did I not think of that! I’ll write it in words…. BRILLIANT. 🙂

            Maximum number of runners is ten.
            Minimum odds is the (number of runners minus one) over one. In decimal odds this is the same as the number of runners so is very easy to apply to BFSP.

            Jockey SR on the course must be at least 5% or greater.

            Thing is that it could end up costing you profit if you were to rule out the races where you took an early odds bet at twice the price of its return to BFSP and this is a variable you would need a crystal ball to find out several hours before the race starts. One thing I think you should do is look at the variables you are using to select the horse in the first instance cos it seems to me that your method has trend factors involved. That is to say that as the season goes forward these variables become known to the betting public and are already factored into the price as the horse becomes more exposed.

            Reason I say that is because when I used to bet with bookies I used to only play in handicap races, mainly because it’s hard to get early prices about novice races, but I found that I always made the profit in the early to mid season and things always got tougher toward the end of the season which ever method I used. Only thing that kept me going toward the end of a season was to restrict my action to only the best handicap races.

            Now I only play in novices and the Class 1 – 3 (& occasionally 4) grades of handicapped and non-handicapped races and only on B/f as they are loading the stalls. I was thinking of putting up my selections come the start of this flat but the problem is that I make a shortlist of those I believe could be thereabouts at the finish. Usually they are all busted by the odds rule, but occasionally I get one that is available to me as they are going to post and then I strike. So I never know exactly which one I’m going to be on before they go to post. Occasionally I have to split stakes cos 2 in the same race and sometimes I go all day and no bet.

            Is old school and is not the way most people want to play but is the only way I can make decent profits without getting involved with bookies.

            Tim

          3. Cheers Tim. I’m working my way through recording no. of runners for my historic stats and linking this to min odds. Jockey stats I’ll have find a source for that info. HRB are not taking new subscribers till the end of March. Any free sources that you know of for that info?

          4. I don’t know of a site where you can get them for free. Flatstats is the best value of the paid for websites IMHO, but if you just need them to get you by for now I can put them up under your post if it helps.

            Tim

          5. Thanks Tim, you’re a gent. I’ll probably take out a free subscription to HRB when they become available to see how that works before I commit. If nothing else I might be able to populate my historic stats to test out your theory on my qualifiers.

  3. One way or another
    I supposed this was a Horse Racing Blog
    I have absolutely no interest in wading Through Golf or Football Rags . Sorry
    if that’s way it’s going to be Then I’m out

    1. Where has that come from Richard??
      All content in ‘the blog’ – what i put up, both free posts and Members, is only ever racing related.
      What then follows in the comments is always a bonus.. you have free choice to wade through comments on not and there are only comments because there are a handful of members willing to post regularly. Without them it is just me talking to myself haha.

      One caveat.. this week is odd in that there are no free posts, quite deliberately.

      Colin (Golf) and Martin (football) happily shared their views in the comments on free posts on those topics, but there are no free posts this week. Often there isn’t too much from me in the free content, depending on if there is a tipping race and i’ve been focused on making members content best it can be in 2018 so far, and such comments add a bit of life to the place.

      No one is holding a gun to your head forcing you to read through anything 🙂

      If my content isn’t enough to make you stick around – which is ‘the core’ – then clearly I have work to do!

      Maybe i need to pull in an actual forum function ,outwith the comments under daily blog posts, where any such things can reside from members/readers.
      best,
      Josh

    2. Those comments are totally uncalled for…totally….i think your looking for an excuse to spit the dummy out of the pram….This site and it’s members are varied and honest, which stands out far above others….Good luck in your retirement from the only blog worth being with.

      Tony Mc.

  4. Maybe . That is a Fair reply JOsh
    not Having a go .
    as it Goes
    Think you and our contributors
    the best

    1. I get where you are coming from, I have no ambition for members post comments to be ‘clogged’ up with non racing content 🙂 But the odd few bits and pieces on other topics in free posts are welcome,a bit of variety never hurts.
      But as always, things can be improved, and the functionality of comments etc is one of them… on flip side, I suspect there are quiet a few who enjoy making a hot beverage and trawling through the various comment posts etc.
      And in time you may home in on those comments you most like to focus on etc, and jump straight to those.
      Touch wood, I have never had a problem with the atmosphere on here, and that’s how it will continue,
      Josh

  5. There is plenty of content Richard but you can take it all in by reading the posts and comments which generally cover horse racing but sometimes it offers other comments – golf for example

    If I have time I generally read most things but at times I simply review the postings by Josh covering the racing selections which might be his tips or at times his blogs. Every day there is the ratings pack / stats qualifiers – in essence there is plenty to look at so read the KEY and take out what you enjoy the most

  6. Well said Tonymc cannot for the life of me understand where Richard is coming from for it takes less than a second to scroll past any article you do not wish to read.
    Richard since September when i started to put my golf bets on Josh’s web site i have received many compliments and thanks from his members for doing so for free,for 30 months my golf bets were put up by Optimum Racing and showed an healthy profit for which they charged £1200 pounds for a years membership and since September the golf bets are showing a healthy profit since being proven on Josh’s web site.

    1. Totally agree Colin. I can’t understand why it’s too much trouble to scroll past a post that does not interest you

  7. Josh, other than the text editor upgrade I would not change anything, particularly the way the comments are presented. As Colin says it is the work of a moment to scroll past anything one does not want to read. Forums seem to me to attract too many LOUD VOICES.
    Already a brilliant week here on RtP.
    Hugh

  8. As a new member this week I think that what Josh does and the way you guys chip in with comments about other things are great. I’m a member of a few forums and you always find that they can become places of hatred. If I can find the time I think I might stick around, can see the amount of work Josh puts in is certainly worth it.

    1. Thanks Scott,
      Ah well luckily there has never been any hatred on these posts… one sweary comment a couple of years ago on a free post but I told them where to go. And one person who took umbrage at accessing 51 weeks of free daily posts and didn’t like idea of paying £7 for Festival week (as it was last year), even with money back guarantee. They didn’t appreciate the effort, and they were told to sod off also, in the politest of terms.
      Other than that it’s been a jolly crew to date.
      I only ever hit the wall if my integrity is ever questions or indeed my intentions. Everything else is fair game provided it is said with manners and decency. Constructive criticism is always welcome.

      Yep, Members Club- you have access through to 25th, and then the usual members trial offer will be available again- my approach does allow you to dip in and out I think, but just a question of judging whether you get value from the content. Some see their subs as part magazine subscription I think.

      In any case, with any luck you’ll be back for Festival 2019 🙂
      Josh

  9. This is the best site bar none for free thinking,one section for all horse racing and the free site which is open to racing and anything else.A great part of the success of RTP is the members comments,not sensored,where success is praised and never a bad word said for trying and failing

  10. On the positive side, up until last week I have never had a golf bet in my life but having enjoyed Colin’s AW selections, I chanced my arm in the Valspar and again this week in the Arnold Palmer. Colin put up Henrik Stenson at 25/1, he is now 7/2 after one round. Many a slip ‘tween cup and lip but an enjoyable £5 to watch.
    Hugh

  11. AW BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Street Poet
    5.45 Sringybarkcreek
    6.45 Fintry Flyer
    7.45 Rastacap
    8.45 Indigo Princess

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