Members Daily Post: 11/03/18 (complete)

NOTES x1, Section 1, Test zone (Festival post to follow…)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Market Rasen 

3.35 – Iskabeg Lane (m1) 14,30 H3 I1 G1 3/1 S4  UP

4.40 –

Only Orvieto (all hncps) (hncp h debut) ES 11/1 S2 S3 UP 12/1

Fille Des Champs (all hncps) I3 14/1 S2 S5  3rd 20/1 

Flemerina (m1) 14,30 H1 G3 9/2  UP 5/1

What A Diva (m1) 14,30 3/1 UP 2/1

5.10- Voodoo Doll (all hncps) H3 I1 G3 6/1 S4   S1+S5   UP 

 

Warwick 

3.25 – Champagne Classic (m1)

3.55 – Capard King (m2) H3 I3 10/1 S2 S5  3rd 6/1 

4.30 – Royal Escape (hncp h + m1) ES H1

5.30 – Clondaw Anchor (NHF)

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/40,14p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

4.40 MR – Only Orvieto – 12/1 (PP/BetF) 11/1 (gen) UP 12/1*

*no excuse there, no market support which is always a slight niggle with this sort of profile but we have seen enough drifters win never to be put off as such… she has run her race I think…she settled just fine behind the two leaders, looked like she may get involved down the back but the winner has then left them all for dead. She got tired late on there and either needs better ground and/or a drop in trip. She showed enough there to suggest she could pick up a weak handicap hurdle at some point. 

I think this handicap hurdle debutant is worth a go at a double figure price, in a race where everything has a question or two to my eyes. This mare steps up in trip here on handicap debut and also gets first time blinkers. That would suggest she hasn’t been putting it all in but could bring about improvement – you just never know, and the price has just lured me in. She also returns to soft ground which may be preferable to heavy LTO. In any case she was sent off at 20/1 there and it was her first run in three months or so. I’d expect her to come on for it and may benefit from a more strongly run race. I just hope she settles in this headgear (it can spark up a young horse) and runs her race, as she is in the ‘could be anything’ category. Ruth is 2/11,3p in the last 30 days. Finally… the novice she ran in at Carlisle has been working out well, producing plenty of winners.. 34 horses have run since, 8 winners, 16 in the places (inc wins). She did also win her NHF race so clearly has some ability, if only moderate. She looks to have the most interesting profile in this and i’m more than happy to have a dart. The market may well guide.

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(The less said about the football the better! I won’t be watching MOTD. I think it’s fair to say that United and their manager ‘did a job’ on us there, always annoying when individual defence errors cost you goals, but out weaknesses thoroughly exploited there by Jose. And in fairness I don’t recall a team keeping our front players that quiet in a whole game, a lot of huff and puff outside of the box, and not much action in it. One of those. Moving on, swiftly!) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.55 Warw – Talk of The South (m3/4) w1 7/2 WON 7/2>7/4 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.10 MR – Volcanic (m2) 14/1 DNQ 16/1, UP (travelled well for a long way, lack of stamina/ground catching him out two from home)

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.55 Warw – Talk of The South 7/2 WON 7/2>7/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Festival 2018: Master Post – to follow

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    In the freeposts, you mention not putting up during Cheltenhem…fully understand why by not getting distracted from the members value…but Colin’s AW recommendations are put there? Is there a problem just putting up a ‘space’ with no content from yourself?

    Cheers,
    Nige C

    1. Hi Nige,
      Colin is a member and I’m sure he’ll only be too happy to carry on posting under the daily members posts during next week:)
      I’ll post up the other micros somewhere also.
      There are 51 weeks of free content a year. It’s not about me not wanting to post free content during that week as such. The free ‘content’ is not going anywhere for members during the 1 week it’s not free. You’ll still be able to access it,just within a members post. (and more importantly those who post..majority of regular users who comment are members and obviously their discretion as and when they post)
      Josh

  2. 3 winners today returning 10pts profit to adv/BOG but unfortunately not quite enough to give us a winning week. 1.65pts down. I’ll do a full round-up tomorrow. I guess most folk will be concentrating on Cheltenham this week but I’ll continue to post tips for AW racing.

    1. Ken
      good to see the winners flowing again after your poor run and it shows how important it is to have a betting bank!!! after the comments on free post yesterday.
      My AW bets had a poor saturday with a few coming close but no winners on the day.

      1. Thanks Colin. I keep forgetting to check the free posts for your tips. When I do remember, I follow yours if I don’t have one in a particular race. I think you had a decent run recently? I’m sure it will come good again for you.

        Yes I point out banking and staking advice occasionally. Timely reminder, I’ll do so again when I do the weekly round-up.

  3. sorry to be a bother but could anyone tell me if there are any tips from SP2A today, email playing up has deleted all mail before 28th jan and not sure if any mail is getting through, on top of that my password key generator has gone tits up and just keeps asking me if i want to save new password aaaarrrrhhhh.
    if there is any could somebody forward them to the above email i am a fully paid up member if that bounces back my alternate is mjwhitle59@gmail.com

    1. No there aren’t. I think Ian says he is away for the week so you may find emails don’t come through. I didn’t get one this morning but no tips or mentions.

    2. Ian said emails would be sent at midday and tips on website at midnight.
      I’ve been unable to log in to the site so know nothing until later.

  4. I backed OO overnight and also Rigadin de Beauchene 355W, in the hope that he might get some better luck in this small field over this favoured course and distance. He’d been off for 2 months lto so I hope he’s targeted today (now Venetia’s in better form), after a decent run fto this season.

  5. regarding the football josh when you say you dont remember a team keeping your front men that quiet you must have had a memory lapse from the tottenham drubbing at wembley earlier in the season 4-1 was the score

    1. Oh I meant in recent weeks since we had been in best form we had been all season, but I do suffer the odd memory lapse, and that result has long gone in the memory bin, no point in remembering such results if you’re on the wrong end! Classic recency bias in evidence there. Although we did score against you, rather than a lucky defensive deflection? so, on that simple analysis, they did keep us quieter 🙂
      Josh

      p.s we had 7 shots on target against Spurs in that game, United kept us to 2. Although such stats can be misleading

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