Members Daily Post: 01/03/18 (complete)

CHELT Report 1 + 2, results update

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Newcastle – off

Kempton – Off

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2018

 

REPORT 1:READHERE>>>

  • Stats/trends/pointers for the 10 handicaps 
  • Other micros/research inc Owners (prev seen) + 3 Micros from last year (starting points)
  • I will pull together any relevant stats for any bonus races (mainly all those 3m+..Albert B, Gold Cup, NH Chase), a few trainer pointers building on last year’s content, + I’ll ponder any other micro research of interest/re cap on last year’s reports… I need to dig out the 1st time blinkers angle, + maybe have a look again at lightly raced horses. I think that will be it and all of this content… the trends/shortlists/micros/qualifiers/starting points will provide the main foundation for the week . 

REPORT 2:  READ HERE>>>

  • Touches on a few trainers of note for handicap chases + handicap hurdles…some interesting stats for Mullins. Plus some ‘1st time headgear’ stats. 
  • Reports 1 + 2 will form the main stats foundation for my own approach. The final touch will just be any further pointers for the ‘bonus’ races I usually cover, as above. I will get those complete asap. 

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19h Feb-25th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 7/58,14p, +6
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/35, -15
  • S1 (1/5,2p,+6, +4 BFSP) S2 (1/20,4p, -9) S3 (0/6,1p, -6) S3A (1/5,1p, +6) S4 (3/9,4p, +11) S5 (1/13,2p, -2, -4 BFSP)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/7,0p, -7

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 2/17,4p, -2.25

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 2/15,-7

Handicap Debut: 1/13, -10.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 1/2,1p, +9

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. 2:20 New, Class 4 hcp BUSY STREET 9/1

    BUSY STREET 2nd 178 days ago in a Ripon Class 4 Hcp.
    The winner that day ZAK MAYO ran once since. won cl2 Hcp. off 85
    3rd that day, REDICEAN has won 4 since. the last One being cl1 Adonis juv hrdle at the wknd. Now!! 5/1 fav for triumph hrdl.
    trained by Sally Haynes and ridden by Ben Curtis.
    Sally’s has a good S/R at Newcastle 4 from 18 with both codes.
    Busy Street has ran 16 times, 1 win and 7 places. so I’ve gone EW.
    It may all be immaterial as Newcastle was called off today and likely to be called off again.

  2. I read the Cheltenham report and based upon having gone to the last 12 complete festivals it did ring true. Particularly in handicap hurdles you do have to be with unexposed types. I usually go through the fields the night before until the fatigue from the day and the beer kicks in. I will Only be there this year on Tuesday as my Irish cousins are not renting a house due to illness and I don’t want to pay £400 a night bed and breakfast. Something that has been successful for me is to back the not first choice runner of Nicky Henderson in novice and handicap hurdles at BFSP. Sometimes he has 3 or 4 runners in a race. The success may be skewed by one or two big returns. I remember one paying 80.0.

  3. pinch punch first of the month, white rabbit,no returns,no returns,(the mrs comes from barnstaple,devon)it is supposed to ward off bad luck.am scots an i will go with her on this to keep the peace@ hopefully to bring in the spring and new returns in our favour.

  4. After a mixed day of downpours and sunshine today it looks like a sunny end to my holiday tomorrow. Likely off out so putting qualifiers up now. Good chance Newcastle will be off and possibly Kempton too.

    Newcastle
    1.50 Ruler of the Nile 15/2 & Thank You Very Much 5/1
    2.20 Kensington Star 6/1
    3.30 Cadeau Magnifique 13/2 & X Rated 6/1
    4.05 Make Music 13/2 & Bint Arcano 13/2
    4.40 Twin Appeal 11/2
    5.15 Doc Sportello 9/2

    Kempton
    5.55 Flora Tristan 5/1
    6.30 Fairway to Heaven 13/2
    8.00 Wink Oliver 14/1
    8.30 Haraz 14/1 & Light From Mars 12/1
    9.00 Locommotion 6/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  5. White rabbits! My mother said if you say that on the first of the month, you’ll get a present during the month. She was from Kent.

    While we have this lull I thought I’d ask a couple of questions about Horseracebase. I’ve been using it since April last year and have been a member here since last October. (Great site Josh!)

    Something I haven’t seen mentioned is chi, specifically bf chi, though it must have discussed before, so sorry for any repetition caused.

    My systems have been much more robust since I started insisting on bf chi >= 3.85, in other words < 5% chance of results being down to luck.

    Has anybody any views on this, please?

    1. Hi Chris,

      I have no views as such but am in no doubt I need to start looking at that closely…is Chi another variety of Impact Value, or is it the same thing with a different name?
      to be honest as I write I don’t know how to use HRB to find those numbers/do that research? Is there a guide on HRB?
      With trainer stats it is always tricky due to sample sizes…certainly being confident in the logic/approach is important, but any other stats to help/give more confidence should be considered, and I can see the appeal of a Chi/IV, esp if making an angle more robust and removing those that are more down to luck! Never a bad thing
      There could be a case that I need to think about making the section 1 track stats a bit more robust/sophisticated.
      Josh

      p.s thanks, too kind…it’s decent, but always things I can be improving on! And I’d quite like a stream of winners in sec 1 at some point esp across a few strategies!

      1. Thanks for the replies, will look at Roulette forum later.

        Chi and Impact Value are completely different things. Here’s a brief explanation of “chi” (pronounced ky, sometimes called Archie) which I recently posted on another forum.

        It’s a way of deciding whether results are caused by skill or luck and comes from a statistical method called a chi-squared test. There are two stages to the calculation.

        The number produced by Horseracebase is the first stage. This number needs to be converted to a p-value, which is the probability that the results are luck. There are online calculators available to do this but you don’t need them.

        The higher chi goes, the lower the probability that results are luck. There are two values of chi worth remembering.

        If chi >= 3.85 then the probability of luck is less than 5%. This is the minimum I use for all my systems.

        If chi >= 6.65 then the probability of luck is under 1%.

        The Betfair chi is the better figure to use because bsp accurately represents actual outcomes.

        And a caveat: because the amount of data is small the p-value is not accurate, but I think it’s a reasonable guide as to whether a trainer is good at something or not. Or whether your system is worth looking at or not. Sometimes a minor tweak will have a marked effect.

        1. Luck! Skill balanced with randomness. Luck is superstition. The size of the sample manages how soon things regress to a mean.

          1. You are of course right Martin. I was a bit lax in my choice of words.

            Random data as opposed to some element of skill, exactly it.

    2. Hi Chris,

      If you google search the following:- Archie a method of evaluating systems

      This will highlight an article on the Roulette Forum which may be of some assistance to you in confirming your views. The article uses horse racing as an example through out. Nothing to do with Roulette.

      Chrisgas

  6. Morning Josh,

    Will you be posting qualifiers for the Cheltenham stats in advance or will you be waiting to final decision stage to do so if at all?
    Cheers, Lee

    1. Hi Lee,

      The 4 ‘Micros’ … e.g. MICRO 1 etc as written in bold across reports 1 + 2, any ‘qualifiers’ from there will be posted… the next focus will be on the Owners stats, esp Gigginstown, and I’ll do my best to highlight any relevant horses from those, then there is the rest of Report 2, esp Nicholls and Mullins in handicap hurdles, all their runners will be worth cross referencing against those…
      So yea, in short, I’ll be posting quite a bit… for each handicap there will be my ‘shortlist’ against my profile taken from the stats in report 1, or a ‘working shortlist’…in effect I use all the info available to me, to get work out what I want to tip/wade into myself etc. I don’t back the micros systematically as such, although always fun to throw some £2 around at BFSP on some of them, esp monster odds, just in case!

      Posting… it won’t be in advance…(as in next week!) well, for the 4 micros depends on when Horse Race Base uploads everything, as it does with the race stats/trends… I will use that to help fire out qualifiers, I won’t be going through every card/horse manually to find qualifiers! I let HRB do as much of that heavy lifting as I can…we have 48 decs this year so that will help… I always try and get any race ‘shortlists’ and other qualifiers posted first and as early as possible…from then on I’ll go to work on the races, before ‘tipping’… they can be the day before, or sometimes the morning.

      I suspect all non tipping content for Tuesday will be up on Sunday at some point, and Wednesday’s will be up on Monday.

      Josh

      1. Thanks Josh, I did mean final decs in my post above, so yes the 48 hour point should help us no end. Equally, I’ll be looking to spread a few quid on the exchanges on those big priced qualifiers, the one thing you can guarantee with Cheltenham is they’ll all be ready to run for their lives.

  7. Josh, thanks for the micros, what were the Nicholls winners in the micro angles please? I thought he did well in the Fred Winter personally.

    1. The stats I have re Nicholls points to the 4yo handicap hurdle, which is on the Wednesday at 4.50 over 2m and a bit. I have him down as weak in the bumper and handicap chases and when a Claimer rides.

    2. might be worth checking this for Nicholls Josh:
      Handicap Hurdle
      (exc Novice handicap)
      Paul Nicholls

      been through his website for chelt festival winners and his 6 winners include 2 x Fred Winter winners which I think are novice handicap hurdles?

      1. I’ll check when I get a moment… Fred Winter should be included as it’s a juvenile handicap hurdle, not a novice handicap…actually the close brothers novice handicap chase is the only novice handicap on the card…when looking through race type there were only 2 novice handicap hurdles the period, so maybe a race changed conditions, which if so , the stats will cover all handicap hurdles anyway.
        And we have the trainer notes for each handicap race in report 1, Nicholls 3/17,9p in Fred winter last decade so clearly anything he runs in that is worth noting!
        Josh

        1. He is 2/13, 8p in the past 5 years. He had a blank (0/2) last year but had the 1st/2nd the previous 2 years and 2 placed from 3 in 2013 and 2014 (2nd and 3rd and 2nd and 4th respectively). On top of the places he had a 5th in 2015 and a 7th in 2014. The general view that its a race he targets and certainly worth keeping a close eye on anything he sends there.

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