Free Daily Post: 27/02/18 (complete)

Free cheltenham stats report…

No racing today but I’ve managed to unearth a free stats report for you….

Free Cheltenham Festival Trainer Stats Report from Gavin Priestley HERE>>>

(opens with one click, it isn’t an email sign up etc…there is a special offer at the end for his Festival stats etc which he always gives away for a ridiculous price,and he’s even knocked off £1 just for you, if you like that sort of thing. He covers every race, does have a slightly different approach to me…and well, he’s thrown in loads of other quality content also. Plenty to get stuck into. In any case, that free report is definitely worth a read, Stumbling across his blog, via Matt B, is part of the reason I’m so into trainers/stats/race profiling/micros etc… a master of his craft)

My own stats guides are getting there.  I have gone through the 10 handicaps, I need to tidy that report up, flick through a few of the bonus races, take a look at the trainers again and some of last year’s generic micros which served us well. 


Don’t forget…

The Cheltenham Ante-Post portfolio post is HERE>>>

There are 51 comments or so which are worth a flick through, a decent read.




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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. AW BETS
    4.00 Lingfield Attain
    2.45 Sharp Operator
    2.45 Babette
    3.15 Tellovi
    3.15 Hipz
    4.15 Captain Lars
    4.15 Classic Pursuit
    4.45 Avocet
    4.45 Canford Thompson

    1. Hi Colin,
      well done with the tips.
      How to winners of apprentice handicaps do returned in 7 days or under.
      as they don’t have to carry a penalty for their win.

      The suzi best horse won again after winning a apprentice handicap
      over 7f rather than a mile do you think the distance change makes a difference

      Is it worth looking at the future entries of horse entered in apprentice handicaps (2 at Lingfield today)
      and if they have multiple entries for later in the week could this be an indicator
      that they were ready to hit form as the trainer would waste £40 to £50 an entry
      if the horse was out of form

      1. Hi Peter
        Well the tips have hit a minor flat spot at the moment to many seconds but if you have a bank then a 20/1 will come along in the near future all being well.
        I have my ratings which i go along with and have never broken them down into different segments and am happy with the profits i make,take the other day had 6 in one race now i am happy to take a reasonable loss on the race in the hope that the outsider will win on this occasion we won with a 3/1 shot so made a loss but in the early days would omit a couple of outsiders and found that one of these won.
        Distance can be an issue but having no access to the trainer then you have to put trust into his placing of the horse again the lower grade horse hit peak fitness and can only maintain this in most cases for a short period so the trainer wants win and pick up as much prize money as he can.
        Now every day prize money being poor then the trainer needs to be cute and a trainer i know used to run his chasers over 2 1/2 mile knowing that they did not stay then after 3 to 4 runs the handicapper dropped the rating and the horse would run over 2 mile and may pop in at 20/1 or be placed,sadly trainers have to do this because of the poor prize money in the lower grade racing,must add the trainer is doing nothing wrong and again all this will be recorded in the form book for us to find.
        Once i start can talk horses 24 hours a day having ridden race horses not on the course have done cross country and show jumping met many trainers and had a wonderful life being involved with horses and training is not easy as people think many trainers go bankrupt a very hard game!!!

        1. Agree with you Colin how hard it can be for the small trainer
          John Wainwright is a mate of mine and I used to have horses with him.
          Oniz tiptoes, Blue Noodles and Acquaint were three of mine.

          But it is a tough game if you haven’t got good horses it is hard to win races
          to attract new owners
          and if you can’t get owners with financial clout you end up with a stable full of grade 6
          or worse horses.
          How he stays in the game is a mystery to me but he has horses in his blood his dad was a trainer
          and if you give him a decent horse he will get results.

          I think that why all the ex head lads like Skelton Fry Longsdon
          etc have a chance because when they start out they have the backing

          1. Peter remember those three racehorses did David Evans train Blue Noodles at one time.
            Afraid the trainers ranks is a pretty closed shop, down for an evening event at Newbury golf club on arrival went to the bar and started speaking to a chap with a very posh accent who was very pleasant and down to earth arrived back at our table and asked if any one knew who he was it turned out that he was a buyer for Sheik Hamdam and very high up in their machine,me being naive at the time asked why Dai could not get a couple of cast offs of them the reply was Dai did not go to Eaton so they would never send horses to him.
            At the time Beverley(Dai’s partner)was friends with Madeline Lloyd Webber and they used to compete on the show jumping circuit but they never send him a horse to train.
            Dai like Mr Wainwright if he had decent horses to train could certainly have done a good job and been near the top in the training field.

          2. yes David Evans did train him at one stage and the horse won for him
            Jim Best claimed him and landed a massive punt at Kempton and we claimed him out of that race.
            Jim Best only had him for one race but made a packet, we were not in on the gamble
            but Best had put him in off a very low claiming price to make sure the gamble was landed
            and when I looked at his form he seemed under priced so we got him.
            Never got back his form that he had with David but won for us and we had great fun with him

  2. GOLF BETS WGC Mexico Championship
    Phil Mickleson 1 point EW 25/1 1/4 5 WH LA CO
    Once again i have to go with the evergreen Phil who is playing his best golf for some time last three tournaments 5th 2nd and 6th and this course suits him.
    Matt Fitzpatrick 1 point EW 60/1 1/4 5 Unibet WH 365 10Bet 888
    Ever consistent Matt who played this course well last year finishing 16th and can put that experience to good use this year and at 60/1 is good value.

    Information only Top Rated Justin Thomas 8/1

    1. I will go with Alex Noren at 25/1 and Joost Luiten
      En at 125/1 in Mexico. Both in form going into the tournament.

  3. Unibet have taken over Stan James had £28 in SJ account who i could get about £10 EW on golf with,decided to log onto Unibet for the first time to have £5 EW on Matt Fitzpatrick refereed to a trader they did take the wager,if he wins will be account closed.
    So another bookmaker in SJ gone and the fear is when there are only two or three left god help the punter for it is bad enough now

    1. Problem for punters is the fact that on line bookies
      have the record of every transaction you make.
      So it is easy for them if you are a consistent loser in their book
      they will take your bets in some case to very large sums

      But if their records show that you win or even if your betting pattern
      is dangerous for them(eg large e/w bet on 2nd favs against odds on chances with 6 or 7 absolute no hopers)
      they will restrict your account very quickly

      They are only interesting in winning losing to clients
      is not in the game plan
      The only way they would lets a winner stay in business is from a know insider
      whos bets were ultra solid which would give them a heads up on the race.

      if they know Mick Easterbys connections are having a few quid on
      they may take it if they could make more pushing the prices of other fancied runners out

      They may not shorten the easterby horse up to a silly price
      but have it a touch shorter and ease the next few in the market

    2. Trade,
      . Six different sites and no restrictions, except if you win consistently Betfair raise your commission rate. Match room 0% on horse racing.

      1. Hi Martin, how do you think the profits made on the exchanges compare to the profits with the bookies if in a perfect world accounts weren’t restricted

        1. Mick
          I think whenever you bet regardless if it exchanges or the bookies
          you should check all the prices and take the best odds.

          Betfair charge a 5% commission so the prices have to be adjusted to take that into consideration

          eg if Ladbrokes were going even money a horse you would need the price to be 1.05/1 on betfair to get an
          equal price.
          if you compare the prices between betfair and the bookies the first three or so in the betting
          are usually very close but as a rule the outsiders are much bigger on the exchanges.

          You may consider backing a horse at a slightly lower price with the bookmakers
          because most on line bookies offer best odds guarantee so if your horse shortens you have the price
          you have taken but if it gets longer you get the longer price
          on betfair if you take the price that’s it and if you go for betfair starting price you could get hit if the horse is heavily backed

          Sometime the bookies give value offering better place odds or an extra place or even two
          in some high profile races so even though they look shorter than betfair you may have a good deal

          Even if you are not betting on line a check of the prices on
          always helps you get the right price

          A lot of punters who don’t bet on line will go to their local Ladbrokes for instance
          and take what ever price they offered.

          I have seen it, the punter with his £5 treble will ask to take the prices
          and across the road in William Hill they are going bigger on two of them.

          Like buying a pair of socks really if you see a pair you like in M&S
          and they are at £8 a pair
          but instead of buying them straight away you look online on amazon
          and they are only £5 then you have a better price but if you only have two
          comparisons you may not know in asdas you can get then for £3.50
          and another company has an on line sale and they are yours for a £1.

          The grand national is a great example at early prices if you look at the best price for every horse
          the book is only about 10% in the bookies favour by race time
          the on course prices are 30% or more in the bookies favour.

          For instance on the morning of the race if you fancy horse x
          and pop down to your local bookie he may say 20/1
          so do you take that or not?
          if it is your only bookie for miles then it may pay because the Sp is likely to be shorter
          but I would look on Oddschecker the morning of the race
          and see two bookies were going 25/1 so then you ask is it possible to get on with
          that firm
          if it is an on line bookie you have never used it is simple open an account
          because they often give you a free bet as well
          if you don’t want to use the account no problem
          just deposit how much you want to bet on horse x
          and if it wins withdraw the whole lot and if it loses you will have a nil balance and can forget about it

          but before you take the 25/1 check betfair as it could be 33/1 there

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