A quiet start to the week, nothing from me.
GL with any bets.
Anything you fancy today?
Josh
A quiet start to the week, nothing from me.
GL with any bets.
Anything you fancy today?
Josh
Thank you for reading my blog and being part of the Racing to Profit community. As always if you’ve any questions or thoughts, post a comment on today’s blog post or hit the ‘contact Josh’ button to the right hand side. If you’re about to leave the blog, I can’t wait to welcome you back soon.
8 Responses
AW BETS
It was due to happen a poor day on saturday with the 6 bets losing,so the profit now stands at +18.92 points
all at Bookmakers SP from 19 days racing.
Lingfield
2.25 Ertidaad
2.25 Darkest Light
2.55 Hipz
2.55 The Special One
3.30 Sayesse
4.35 Clergyman
Wolverhampton
7.45 What Usain
8.45 Somethinglucky
Great weekend for altitude based teams beating their lowland rivals
most were odds on but the asian handicaps saw big wins
THE STRONGEST 3-0 ROYAL PARI
SAN JOSE 4-0 BLOOMING
SANTA FE 4-0 JAGUARES
NACIONAL POTOSI 2-0 SPORTS BOYS OF BOLIVIA
SPORT HUANCAYO 2-0 SPORTS BOYS OF PERU
To show the difference altitude can make REAL POTOSI went to lowland GUABIRA
and lost 0-6.
In five league games Real Potosi have scored 13 goals and conceded 19
32 goals in 5 games
three home games 4-4 3-2 5-2 draw and narrow win against other altitude teams
5-2 against Club Destroyers(lowland based)
away they have lost 1-5 and 0-6 the 1-5 was against the best team in the league Bolivar
and the 0-6 was against lowland Guabira.
Results show they are a pretty poor team but at their base at nearly 4000 meters they are a different
kettle of fish.
The fact they are in such high scoring matches is great(more goals less draws) back them at home against lowland teams
but go against then away either at altitude or at lowland teams(omit local derby v Nacional Potosi)
against the better altitude teams class tells and once they come down to sea level
they are poor.
Thursday has two fascinating Copa Libertadores first legs.
REAL GARCILASO from Peru play in a stadium at 3400 meters which is only 250 meters
lower than La Paz and they host Santos from Brazil
Santos are without question a better team but they played at home at the weekend
and only have a few day to acclimatise and a long flight to Peru
Marathon Bet are going a massive 37/20 the Peruvians
and I think they should be an 11/8 shot.
If you think superior Brazilian skill will see off the altitude then think again
Vasco de Gama won their home game 4-0 against bolivians Jorge Wilsterman
Wilsterman play at only 2558 meters, in the return leg
Wilsterman beat the Brazialians 4-0 only to go out on penalties
I believe Santos who have no time to acclimatise and face a long flight
will still be confident even if they lose by 2 goals
They would be 3 goal favs in the 2nd leg
in a One off game ay 3400 meters the 37/20 looks an outstanding price the home team
Columbian team Santa Fe have won the last two games both played at home 3-0 v Santiago Wanderers
and 4-0 Jaguares.
both sea level teams and have a home tie against Ecuadors Emelec
Emelec would be the better team but they also had a home game at the weekend and have very little
time to acclimatise.
Santa fe(2640meters) are starting to hit form and I think they should be odds on for this match
again Marathon bet are the first to open up and go 53/50 Santa Fe which looks more than fair
I think on betfair closer to the match both team will be less than the 2 opening shows from Marathon
so trading could be a play
but to me 37/20 REAL G v SANTOS is overpriced
SANTA FE should be 45/50 so 53/50 is a value price but 37/20 about a 11/8 shot
is the real value
2184 miles from Sou Paulo (santos) to Cusco (Real G)
Interesting to note how much these games take out of the visiting lowland teams
when they play the following weekend in their domestic league
Santiago Warriors Lost in Santa Fe and then lost at the weekend 0-3 in the Chilian league
Vasco de Gama scrapped through on Penalties against Jorge Wilsterman
but back in Brazil over the weekend they lost 1-0 to a lower ranked team.
Santa fe is at 2640 meters and Jorge Wilsterman is at 2558 meters
but when you think there are 8 teams based at 3000 meters plus
and another 10 at 2700-3000m
then you can see how hard it is to recover
by the time Santos play their league game at the weekend they will have had two flights of
2200miles plus a full on match at 3400 and because it is amajor compettion
all their best players will play
well sods law on Sunday Santos play Corinthians in the Sou Paulo derby
and sorry I missed it but Corinthians also play in the copa L
on Thursday.
They play Millionarios of Columbia who also play at altitude
only 2640 meters rather than the 3400 of Cusco
but they will also be knackered so Sundays game should be
slight advantage to Corinthians but not enough to bet on.
Millionarios are 13/10 with Marathon bet to beat Corinthians
and at 760 lower altitude than Cusco
I can’t see why REAL G are 37/20 and Millionarios are 26/20.
to me for Santos Corinthians and Emelec to go to the mountain bases of
REAL G MILLIONARIOS and SANTA FE and get anything will be a real effort
at this stage of the copa l
it is groups of 4. home and away( 6 games each) so the likes of the brazialian
will expect to get 9 points at home so a slip up in the mountains wont see them in to much trouble even if they lose big
I was having a look at a few leagues and teams scoring over 2.5 goals a game on average
and teams conceding on average more than 2.5
seem to drawing a lot less games than they should
the theory is the more goals in a match the less likely hood of a draw
the chances of a 0-0 draw or a 1-1 draw is high
once you get to 2-2 and then 3-3 the chances are much less
4-4 5-5 6-6 added together must have less than a 0.5% chance
so if teams are scoring or conceding 2.5 goals a game it makes the draw chances less
I looked at teams just off the relegation zone and they seemed to draw a lot of matches
because they don’t score or conceded that many goals
any football experts have any thoughts
Over a long period you gain more points in the league by not conceding as opposed to scoring. It is about 0.15 goals per game. I categorise English teams in to categories: ability to score goals, win at home, don’t win at home, win away, don’t win away. If you can score goals, say Man City and Liverpool, you can get a win at any time. The most profitable is win away as you on average get bigger odds than the others.
Look at a league table and you will see that the teams at the bottom usually let the most goals in. They will also be low goal scorers to a lesser extent.
Anomaly in the premier league is Burnley.
the two south American competitions have several altitude teams
still in them
I will start with the 2nd level competition the copa scudamerica
Sports Huancayo got a 0-0 draw in chile in the first leg against Union Espanola
my logic if the Chilian cant beat them at sea level their chance at 3200 meters are limited
so the peru team should win
El NACIONAL AT 2850 Meters Quito play San jose AT 3735m
So no real advantage but the team who get through will be worth noting if they draw a lowland team
Ldu quito 2850 play Guabira o meters
and can see home wins for both team Guabira will have a chance if
the Ecuador team don’t lose by to many in quito
the most interesting tie is Fluminese v Nacional Potosi
Fluminese are different class but will be worried about hike up
the bolivian mountians at 4000m it make La Paz look
easy.
Fluminese will go all out to put the tie to bed in the first leg
and I expect them to win by 4 clear goals
so the markets will be interesting on this one
if they do win big and it is game over Potosi could win the second leg at a decent price
II the premier competition the copa libatdores
there are 8 groups of 4 with the top to in each going through to the last16
Group 2 has Bolivar at 3640 m against three better teams two from sea level
Delfin and Colo Colo and Atletico Nacional 1495m
being nicely based to go up and down
Bolivar must win their three game in la paz to stand a chance of the top 2
group 3 has the strongest another la paz based team against three superior
sea level teams althletico Tucuman Liberstad and Penarol
again only their home form will see them have a chance
group 4 has Santa fe at 2640 really drawing the short straw
as they have Flamengo River plate and Emelec
if they don’t win their first game agauinst Emelec at home they can have little chance of progress
gropp6 is fascinating
real Garcilaso at 3400meters are a team on the up
but again Estudiantes Nacional and santos are all class team
They could nick a point on the road but must win their home games
group 7 Corinthians Deportivo Lara and independiete are all better teams than Millionaros
so the columbians must pray they they can win their three home games at 2640
to give then a hope