Members Daily Post: 26/02/18 (complete)

Notes x1, Section 1 + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Plumpton

3.00 – Theatre Rogue (m1) I1 G1  4/1  UP

3.35 –

Not Never (m1) w1 H1 I1 G1  13/8  S4    WON 5/4 

Jumping Jack (m1) 14,30H3 I3 G3  13/2  S4   2nd 8/1

 

Ayr 

2.45 – Gold Opera (m1) ES+I3 12/1 S2 S3A S5  UP 

3.15 – Durbanville (hncp h) I1 G3  6/1  UP 5/2 

4.20 – Bulls Head (all hncps) w1  H3 I3 G3 5/4 S4     WON 5/4 

4.55 –

Surprise Vendor (all hncps + hncp h +m1/m1/m1) I1 11/2  S5  UP

Sky Full Of Stars H1 I3 G3  5/1  S4  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/35,12p, -11)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.15 Ayr – Durbanville – 6/1 (bet365/PP/BV) 11/2 (gen)

I thought this one was worth a go at 6/1. The jockey booking intrigued me given Johnson is 1/1 on the trainer’s hurdlers and it’s the first time he has ridden the horse. Depending on what they do with Transient Bay (make all over shorter, stamina a big question here so may hold up) there is a chance Dickie tries to make all/gets an uncontested lead. The horse is still lightly raced, 1/4,2p in handicap hurdles, and there should be more to come one day. I thought it was interesting that his best run/only win so far came on the one time he ran on heavy. Carrying 11-12 he stayed on dourly up Carlisle’s hill over 20f. He has shaped as if he stays this trip and in any case is unexposed over it. His two runs previously he has seemed to get outpaced on quicker ground, to my eyes at least. He didn’t respond to the headgear and again was outpaced LTO but plugged on well enough. I just wanted to see what he could do here over 24f in heavy. I thought he may just keep on going when plenty of others in here had cried enough. Clearly it is a deep enough race but those at shorter prices do have to prove a liking for conditions, which they may do. But this one is unexposed yet has a hardiness about him. Johnson could make all the difference also and at 6/1 I was happy to play.

That’s all for tips.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball

5.15 Plump

Port Royale (m1, 10/1< guide, m2 5/1<) UP

Shapiro  (m1, 10/1< guide, m2 5/1<) 3rd 3/1

TTP AW 

8.15 Wolv – Atletico (all hncps) ES H3 I1 G1 S1 S2 S4  2nd 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update

to follow

 

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Jack Quinlan… I notice he had a 14/1 yesterday in a NHF flat race, a horse that he had ridden once before. It was his only ride at the track. Maybe I need to start following the stats below more closely! I didn’t back that winner but hope some of you took note of the ‘week that was’ research from a couple of weeks ago…it looks like an angle worth keeping onside…

Jack Quinlan

In standard Handicap Chases/Handicap Hurdles

  • 1 ride at track: 22/111,42p, +90 BFSP
  • 2+: 13/142,35p, -65

 

1 ride at the track…

If we focus on: NHF / Handicap Chase/ Handicap Hurdle / Novice Handicap Chase

  • 152 bets / 32 wins / 56 p / 21% sr / +130 SP / +185 BFSP
    • Hncp C + Nov Hncp C : 16/48,25p, +56
    • Distance: 2m-2m3.5f: 20/70,30p, +140
    • Had ridden horse 0-1 times previously: 18/72,24p, +180

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Master the World at 16/1 after Stewards Enquiry was sadly our only winner yesterday giving us a meagre 1pt profit for the day.

    Provisional results for w/c 19 Feb are -14pts to early/BOG and -6.92pts to BFSP. I’ll confrm when I return from GC.

    Two AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield and Wolves. Could’ve sworn it was only Wolves when I looked on Friday. Extra meeting been added due to likelihood of jumps being abandoned perhaps? Anyway, qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    2.55 Sonnet Rose 5/1
    3.30 Daring Guest 6/1

    Wolves
    5.45 Sienna Says 5/1
    7.15 Metronomic 11/1 & Glorious Asset 11/1
    7.45 Ice Canyon 9/1
    8.15 Tropics 4/1
    8.45 Zipedeedodah 9/1
    1pt win each horse.

    Good Luck

  2. Suprise Vendor Ayr Monday 16:55 1pt e/w
    Keyboard Gangster Ayr Monday 14:15 1pt e/w

    If Ayr definitely survives will do the write ups before racing starts.

    1. Suprise Vendor Ayr Monday 16:55 1pt e/w-Was backed heavily last night given I got 12s and was generally available at 9/10/1 when I posted. Is 3/4 over handicap hurdles at Ayr and 3/4 over class 5 handicap hurdles worth less than £3.5k. All the other conditions also looked ideal. He has placed twice in his last 4 runs in class 4s before finding the ground too fast LTO. Trainer and jockey are 5/10, 6p in handicap hurdles at the track in the past 5 years also and they combined for their first winner since December last week.
      Keyboard Gangster Ayr Monday 14:15 1pt e/w-Looked overpriced in the context of the race. Ran a solid race in a bumper 2 starts ago at the Scottish National meeting last year which has produced multiple winners (of the 25 who have ran in a class 4 since 4 have won and 12 have placed). He should come on for his re-appearance run in a better grade. Trainer is bang in form and his last two runners have won. He has a solid record with horses wearing a tongue tie. I also wanted to take the fav on. He is likely a better horse but he has done all his racing over 2m7f so not sure if this drop back to 2m will suit or not and Russell is 1/19 in the past 30 days.

        1. I backed Keyboard, I did spot Whillans was top man at Ayr but excellent pick by you Nick. Did it to win and so may keep me going if no racing. Take a bow.

  3. Does anybody know where I can get my hands on a basic excel/csv file with this years current Cheltenham entries on? Just the runners and race name with date and time is the bare minimum I’m after.

    1. Snow in Kent but there was no frost and when I took the dogs out it was not that cold. Very odd. Likely snowing at Plumpton and Lingfield.

  4. Southern have cancelled all trains for the next 6 months.

    Panic buying has broken out-Sussex woman seen buying 120 sliced loaves.

    All schools and Government buildings in East/ Southeast have closed indefinitely.

    Meanwhile Trans -Siberian Express running on time with Full Service.

    Good Night

      1. I was planning to train it back to Suffolk on Wednesday, just moved that forward to this afternoon! Hoping now all cut off by this evening haha. We are useless when it gets a tad chilly.
        Josh

  5. Thanks guys. If someone here lives near the track please get the clerk of course a drink the next time you’re there since I think we owe them and their staff for that one.

    1. Sadly no double and slightly annoying that the winner was behind Vendor 2 starts ago. Some day from Ross Chapman today. Doubt there are many 5lb claimers who have racked up a 4 timer.

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