Free Daily Post: 19/02/18 (complete)

Tips/write up, micros

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 4/40,14p, +2)

3.50 Ling

Bears Rails – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 10/1

*hmm, a no show really. Moving on. The Artful Cobbler did that well enough, gutsy. 3/1 > 13/2 SP which was a bit more palatable. No idea how he has stayed on his feet there, twice walking through fences. Tough. Paddy had every chance. PP has seen the trip out well. 

 

This looks a fascinating race and in truth I couldn’t muster up much confidence for anything at a single figure price so thought i’d take a stab at one of the bigger priced ones. All the single figure priced horses feel about right to me and in any case, given the gruelling conditions, I didn’t want to be with them.

Bears Rails.. well Tizzard is in flying form and I am going to assume that the yard form was the reason for this one’s below par effort LTO. It could not be of course but if he arrived here on the back of his previous two efforts he wouldn’t be 12/1. This feels a few points too big given he does have some solid chase form to his name. Most in here have to prove that they will stay this trip and stay it in heavy, hence the reason for wanting one at a price. He’s had a break since that last run and I think is worth another go at a trip like this. 26f in heavy is no problem, we will find out if he can get the extra 2-3f here. It could be he is just out of sorts but I get a price to find out and i’ll roll the dice. He looked most interesting in here at the prices.

Clearly the most likely winners, as determined by their odds, are above him in the market. Artful Cobbler arrives in rude health but steps up in class, can clout a fence, has no Paddy B in the saddle, a career high chase mark and he has to prove he stays this trip and in heavy. That he may just do but it makes 7/2 short enough to my eyes. In that price range you want a horse proven in all race conditions really. Well, i do. Same with Petite Power who has a decent chance I think, his trainer is in red hot form and he has the excellent Paddy B in the saddle- but I thought 5s was about right- there is a stamina question for him and certainly one in heavy. But he is lightly enough raced and no shock winner. I can live with him beating me at his price though. Morney Wing is inconsistent but would have a chance if running to his best/building on LTO. But I’d always want a bigger price for him and Cyclop the same- he’s had a hard season already really and has yet to prove he likes heavy ground. I can’t back Coolking at a single figure price, certainly not under 8s I don’t think- but the money is coming. I think I tipped him LTO so we know what happens next! He is very moody but has ideal conditions here and IF on song/runs his race, he probably is the one they have to beat- simply because if he runs his race he is the only one here proven in all conditions combined. Wood Yer is 12 and I can’t have him although I fancied him LTO also. Gulp. Interesting with a light weight and the yard are in better form. But he has plenty of questions these days and has never won at this class or over this far. The Bosss Dream looks out of sorts/not good enough/enough to prove. Saint John Henry could do anything- i think his issues are in the head. IF he runs to his best then he could go well here- has to prove he stays in heavy also. And he has top weight which in this ground will take some performance. More likely to be pulled up but if he runs his race then he will run like a 6/1 shot, not 14s. The enigma.

So, it has that sort of open feel about it. A few dodgy characters in here who could bolt up on their day, and many who have to prove they will stay this trip in heavy ground. A few of those were not a big enough price to tempt me in but I may have got one of them wrong! Petite Power maybe.

GL with whatever you fancy,
Josh

*

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey Combo – Live Test

3.00 Carl- Swing Hard (12/1<)

4.40 Carl- Never Up (12/1<)

2.30 Carl – Cesar Collonges (12/1< guide)

2.45 Ling – Good Man Hughie (14/1<)

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Lingfield 2.15 Allthegear No Idea is well handicapped here on his previous hurdling form and with STD up for NTD becomes an interesting proposition with a healthy 4winners/7runners/5places in hurdle races together at Lingfield for +12 pts.
    The horse has form on heavy and the distance looks fine.

    NTD has returned to form recently after a quiet spell in mid winter.
    There has already been a rash of money for it today but I’ve taken 10/1 with Hills but he is as short as 15/2 with BV

    1. Carlisle 2.30 Take A Break can be competitive off 112 here ridden by Sean Bowen for the first time since they won together in September.
      Bowen has a 35% win rate for Nigel Hawke hurdlers from 20 races.
      Hawke has a 41% strike rate here with his hurdlers and feb/mar/apr are profitable for his hurdlers is classes 3/4/5 of distance between 2m.5f and 3m.
      Tounge tie on but not sure if that helps.

  2. I have had Bear Rails in my tracker and have been waiting for it to run. However there has been no real money for it yet which has made me reduce my stake on it.

    On the football front I like the Man City to nil angles this evening at 4/5. Wigan are struggling in front of goal the past few weeks.

  3. AW BETS
    6.50 Kempton Light Laughter

    13 Days racing 20 winners from 69 bets Profit 29.35 at Bookmakers SP,still cannot believe the stewards threw out Teds Brother at 12/1 long odds on to keep race and in my view robbing us of 12 points.

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