Members Daily Post: 19/02/18 (complete)

Results update, +NOTES x1, Section 1, test zone (+AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Lingfield

2.45 – Good man Hughie (m2) 7/1 2nd 8/1

 

Carlisle

2.30- Barrys Jack (hncp h) H3 I1 G1 11/1 S1 S2 S4 S5 UP 10/1

3.00-

Granville Island (hncp c + m1) w1 H1 I1 G3 4/1  S4   WON 4/1>11/2 

Swing Hard (hncp c + m1/m1) 14,30 ES H3 I3 G3 7/2 S3 S4  UP

3.35 –

Tomngerry (hncp h) I1 G3 4/1  UP

Blottos (m1) (hncp hurdle debut) w1 14,30 H3 I3 G1 6/4  S4  WON 6/4> 6/5

4.05 –

Top Billing (hncp h) 25/1 S2 UP

Diamant De L’Ouest (hncp h) G1 66/1  S1  UP 33/1

Bridane Rebel (m1) H3 I1 12/1 S2 S5  3rd 16/1 

4.40 – Never Up (hncp c + m1) 14,30 ES H3 G3  7/1  S3  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/28,12p, -4)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.15 Ling  – Echo Watt – 25/1 UP 9/1

hmm…well he’s more than halved in price but hasn’t done much again..he’s pulled a bit hard again there and prob won’t be winning much until he settles. Clearly failing to progress as yet. 

This one appears for the Hobson test angle below and you guessed it, he makes handicap hurdle debut! This one hasn’t done too much on his last two hurdle starts but his odds suggest he wasn’t going to. I think he may have been there to run his race though and has just been disappointing. However, he won his NHF race well and that was in hock deep mud at Ffos Las and he takes a big step up in trip here… that may work, it may not, but at least it’s doing something different. The trainer is 1/6,3p with hncp debutants and he is ‘in form’ in the last 14 days or so. At 25/1 I couldn’t be leaving him given that profile – you can’t make form cases for this sort and as with Bowen’s yesterday, I’ve just got to have more faith in these handicap debutants. We will find out one way or another whether they are worth just backing blind but i’d rather lose the points than the mental anguish of watching another one go in! I say that having watched numerous handicap debutants win and am fairly confident that as a group they will come out in front, over time. I’d like to see some market support but we shall see. It is a fascinating race and the top 3 in the market have interesting profiles, but all with something to prove. Getting them all beat may be tough but having a light weight could be an advantage here today, it looks very testing. Best get the armbands ready.

There are no other really unexposed ones at a price… Good Man Hughie.. i’ve had a small interest at 7s but I wouldn’t have my tipping stake on him… he is unexposed over fences and drops back in class. He’s won over hurdles here in the mud and the class. I’m sure it will click over fences at some point but he’s been poor so far. The first time blinkers did nothing for him LTO and he gets the visor today. I am becoming more bullish with unexposed hurdlers as opposed to chasers, they seem more reliable to a point I think- if and when my pin lands on them! This one faces a couple of hardy types who are in form and on this occasion taking on the top two in the market will no doubt prove foolish!  There are a few interesting strategy horses, a few at a price, fingers crossed one or more of those can go close!

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Tut tut… I had a mental capitulation on Sunday…aka a ‘bottle job’… the sort of lily-livered decision making that creeps in when you’re on a bit of a poor run/not reading things well. At least Jenny’s Surprise helped on the confidence front but I should be sitting here with that ‘notes’ total on +7.  Remember a few days back when I stated that I should just tip all handicap debutants at a price? Hmm… well along comes Hillary View at 11/1 making handicap hurdle debut and I bottled it. Three nothing runs, unexposed, ‘magic formula’ horse, dropping down markedly in trip, yard going better than they have been, low mark, weak C5 where everything had some sort of question…wins by 3L. I am going to flick through the results for 2018 but Section 1 has had handicap debutant winners at 16/1,10/1,11/1,9/4 off the top of my head, and not many losers that I can remember. The test zone has thrown up a couple also I think, certainly for Lacey. Hopefully you spotted that I started adding a note as to whether they were making handicap debut, to help with your own analysis if nothing else. They were 2/2 on Sunday. And it will help me keep track. I’m pretty sure it will be a decent micro angle in itself, in time.. 1. qualify against my stats somewhere – section 1/Test zone  2. making handicap debut in said code… hurdle / chase / flat.  I hope some of you backed him on that basis. ‘Form’ means sod all with a horse with that sort of profile. Irrelevant to a point. I will get good at the Jumps ‘notes’ at some point, even if I have to order a new Opus Dei kit… the current one is getting a bit worn. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D Pipe PU LTO

3.50 Ling – Saint John Henry (14/1<) 14/1 UP 7/1

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.50 Ling – Petite Power (m3/m4) 11/2 2nd 7/2

 

D McCain (14/1<)

4.05 Carl – Pinch Of Ginger  w2  5/1 UP

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.15 Ling – Echo Watt 25/1 UP 9/1

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Handicap Chase Starting Points

30% win sr / 50% win|p…

3.00 Carl – Oak Vintage  3/1 UP

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TTP All-Weather

7.50 Kemp – Cyrus Dallin (m1)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 12th Feb-18th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 9/48,16p, +13
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/33, +2.3
  • S1 (1/4,1p, +8, +9 BFSP) S2 (1/13,4p, -1) S3 (1/10,3p,+2) S3A (3/6,3p, +2.8) S4 (2/7,3p, -2.7) S5 (1/8,2p, +4, +5 BFSP)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/2,0p, -2

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 6/12,7p, +24.25

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 4/8,5p, +14

Handicap Debut: 2/3, +12.25

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Lingfield 2.15 Allthegear No Idea is well handicapped here on his previous hurdling form and with STD up for NTD becomes an interesting proposition with a healthy 4winners/7runners/5places in hurdle races together at Lingfield for +12 pts.
    The horse has form on heavy and the distance looks fine.

    NTD has returned to form recently after a quiet spell in mid winter.
    There has already been a rash of money for it today but I’ve taken 10/1 with Hills but he is as short as 15/2 with BV

    1. Carlisle 2.30 Take A Break can be competitive off 112 here ridden by Sean Bowen for the first time since they won together in September.
      Bowen has a 35% win rate for Nigel Hawke hurdlers from 20 races.
      Hawke has a 41% strike rate here with his hurdlers and feb/mar/apr are profitable for his hurdlers is classes 3/4/5 of distance between 2m.5f and 3m.
      Tounge tie on but not sure if that helps.

    2. Allthegear ran well and a great ride from STD giving it every chance, just met one too good on the day, nice wee ew double with 12/1 shot Take A Break who stayed on well to take 3rd but who never really threatened to win.

  2. Sporty Yankee-Lingfield 14:15 1.5pt win-We backed Sporty Yankee LTO when he couldn’t quite reel in a well treated horse. They step him up in trip considerably here and the trainer has a great record when doing so particularly at this level and given his flat form I think the horse will improve for it. He is arguably in better form barring the accident on Saturday which unsettled both his runners and I thought he had a good chance tomorrow.

  3. Well Saturday was looking like a real damp squib until Arsenio Lupin popped up in the last race at 11/1, to give us a 4pt profit for the day.

    AW racing comes from Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers are as follows:

    5.20 Ixelles Diamond 20/1(ew) & Hi there Silver 11/1
    6.20 Ballesteros 22/1(ew)
    6.50 Hipz 12/1 & Poppy In The Wind 7/1
    7.20 Alifax 8/1 & Going Native 8/1
    8.20 Ardamir 15/2 & Jalingo 20/1(ew)

    1pt win each horse except where noted.

    Another week of ups and down but coming out ahead by the end of the week. After taking account of a couple of Rule 4’s the results for w/c 12 Feb were as follows:

    Early/BOG
    Staked 55pts, Profit 19.20pts, ROI 34.91% or £96.00 to £5 stakes

    BFSP
    Staked 55pts, Profit 23.08pts, ROI 41.97% or £115.41 to £5 stakes

    Good Luck

  4. If it`s any consolation Josh, i too looked at Hillarys View and bottled it.
    I saw you had put in the qualifiers section, it was stuck in my head and afterwards i did the same, why did i not back it?? Mentally I know things even themselves out over the course of a season, but i wish sometimes i would just sit down for 2 minutes and think logically…haha! As if that`s going to happen soon!
    14:30 Carlisle
    TAKE A BREAK 11/1 gen
    Not sure what connections were doing trying 3 miles last time out, but it was clearly way to far, so strike a line through that and we get back to what it knows here. Not far off when fifth over hurdles the run before last and further down the weights now so should be competitive.
    PISTOL 12/1 gen
    Ran well last time out in a class 2 and drops to class 4. Same distance and going conditions as last time and ran a decent race over course and distance 3 runs ago. Mark continues to drop and always seems to run with credit at the course.

    16:05 Carlisle
    BRIDANE REBEL 11/1 gen
    This is one frustrating horse, he will either romp home, or finish out the back of the tv. Never really come on for his first novice run, everything is put on him here to wake him up, (tongue strap,headgear, he hopefully has a rocket where the sun don`t shine also).
    POINT N SHOOT 12/1 gen
    Yard has good record here and Danny cook is eye catching booking. Cannot ignore that romp at Lingfield just over a year ago.

    There ya go, let`s see how we get on.

    1. It should just be automated really Stewart – handicap debutants – not sure what I was thinking- well, over thinking- and when you feel like you are in a bit of a ‘rut’ the easiest thing to do is not tip a horse. This game is all in the mind. I’ll nail an approach to the jumps notes at some point, working out which ones to tip which to leave, hopefully before the flat season starts! 🙂 GL today

    2. How are your selection going to date Stewart? I know you have been posting for a couple of weeks but have not been tracking them.

      I like Top Billing based upon trainer stats and snippets of form at 25/1, 4.05 CAR. The Pipe pulled up LTO micro is 2/4 +10 in 2018 and has Saint John Henry running today. Take it easy as it is a Monday and not much to get excited about.

        1. Here we go…
          75 selections 8 winners 10% wtr
          returned 62.38 pts @ SP (loss of 12.62), but at early price increases to 85.50pts profit of 10.50pts.
          Haven`t worked out place returns, will post those later.
          I`m happy with that, as i know eventually i will make a profit @SP. Therefore increasing the profits at early price!

  5. Hi josh, any thoughts on Never Up 4.40 Carl. ? Qualifier in section1 above and doing something different . .ie step up in trip, 7/1 feels like a decent price, might not lead today given distance maybe and i do like a Danny Cook front runner, so am in 2 minds whether to back it

    1. Hi James, I was on the fence! He is exposed enough (in terms of no. of run…this his 14th handicap chase, still young enough) – I just wondered why they’d waited so long to step him up/try this trip.. but the team are in cracking form… think I wanted a bit bigger price given the stamina unknown- in context they have kept him to 16-20f for an age and wasn’t sure he looked to be crying out for a step up. Trainer in form and some ratings pointers also. It is just whether he stays I think, if he does he won’t be far away… thought it looked a tight contest, I sat on fence as to whether to tip the Russel horse in free post but decided to leave race. He is the only one proven in a slog over the trip but a few, inc NU, could improve for it. If you like the price I won’t be putting you off! prob bolts in and connections wonder why they have never stepped him up before!

      1. interesting thoughts, cheers. have had a small stakes double with the other mrs smith runner, swing hard earlier on the card, which is my main bet of the day

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